.... I have my own theory
Boris becomes PM. He spends the next couple of months in fruitless attempts and new “initiatives to get concessions from the EU. The EU won’t budge. The Tories, like the Germans in WWII won’t admit, even to themselves, that the day of reckoning is fast approaching.... until eventually, in late September or early October, reality can’t be suspended any longer, and number of Tory MPs - probably in numbers that will surprise many - break ranks and indicate they will vote down their Government, judging that the now near certainty of no-deal outweighs the risk of the possibility of a Corbyn-led Government.... A GE is announced, leading to the EU extending its deadline. The Tory remnant - purged of its one-nation wing - form an uneasy electoral alliance with the Brexit Party.
Labour will continue to be mired in disagreement over a referendum.... if Corbyn didn’t buckle after the European elections, the boost of the Peterborough by-election result will have simply cemented his implacable opposition to it. The 600 who voters won it for Labour may have done far more than win them a seat....they may well have been critical in determining whether we have a Labour Government later this year, and may even have a lasting impact of the future of the party.
The LibDems, as a result of Labour’s equivocation and Tory’s pursuit of no-deal , does well in the polls in the months ahead. The disintegration of the Tories after the no-confidence vote boosts them further. Previously loyal Remainer, and even soft-Brexit, Tories switch their support to the LibDems as the best way to prevent their two fears - Corbyn and no-deal. An electoral deal is done with the Greens to further boost their position. Change UK still exists but polls alongside the Monster Raving Loonies, the vast majority of the small numbers who supported it at the EU elections moving to the LibDems
The election is bitter and acromonious.... Despite the no-deal crash our promised by the Brexit-Tory alliance, significant numbers support it, and they win the most votes at 37%. Second are the revitalised LibDems with 28% with Labour getting a poor 21% as internal feuding continues until election day, but polls well in inner-city areas with high BAME populations.
The Brexit/Tory alliance get 235 seats with much of England turning a bluey-turquoise - tactical voting hampering their seat count. Despite Labour only getting 21%, the concentration of their vote brings them 160 seats, with the LibDems a few less on 155 turning with most of London and the Home Counties yellow in the process. The Greens (on 5%) get 10 seats as they get some dividend from their tactical voting arrangement with the LibDems.
The Brexit-Tories try to form a Government.... They fail - their DUP allies leave them 90 short. Labour are the next ones to have a crack...the LD/Greens/PC/SNPs provide confidence and supply on the basis of a securing second referendum. Incredibly, Corbyn is PM having on secured just 21% of popular vote in 3rd place!
A bitter referendum is fought.... A combination of Brexit fatigue and the new starkness of the choice mean Remain win 56:44. Article50 is revoked.... the Government falls the next day and a new GE ensues...
Brexit is averted but the UK remains mired in deep, deep crisis.
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Brexit
Brexit: How’s it all going to play out?!....
95 replies
Oakenbeach · 08/06/2019 22:56
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