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Westminstenders: One Pepperoni Pizza Please. And a Milkshake To Go.

(987 Posts)
RedToothBrush Wed 22-May-19 21:03:45

On the Eve of the EU Elections that we never met to happen, and we don't know what the next hour next mind day might bring.

Farage is enjoying the theatre of milkshakes. It means he gets attention and gets to play the victim. And avoid talking about his dodgy friends and even dodgier financing. The Brexit Party are polling so highly its possible he could be PM. And boy does he know it. The temptation is there and its too much to resist.

May has refused to resign so far tonight after a day of asking her to. The 1922 Committee refused to change the rules to help oust her - possibly because they don't want the next PM to be beset with challenges to the leadership at the drop of a hat. Graham Brady is seeing her on Friday... The ERG are not happy bunnies.

May is still apparently planning to plough on with the WAB with a referendum possibly attached. Though this remains to be seen.

Meanwhile Leadsom has just quit the Cabinet. She was one of the Brexit 'Pizza Club'. Rumours are this might be the Cabinet withdrawing support for her. Though Gove has said he doesn't intend to resign (tonight at least).

Rumour is that May's senior staff have abandoned her to let her make the decision to go. And rumours are that when Leadsom rang May to tell her she was leaving cabinet, May didn't tell her senior staff. This comes two weeks after rumours where that Phillip May was at the point of telling her it was time to resign. The rumours of course may be just that, rumours but it's hard to see how or why anyone would tell her to carry on now.

And so tomorrow. Who would vote for this utter shower of shit? Even if you were the most loyal of Tories?

The thing tomorrow is to get the remain vote out. It doesn't matter ultimately what people vote for. Every vote cast for remain keeps the Brexit Party popular vote down. Even if it doesn't win seats. And that is psychologically important.

Tomorrow make sure EVERYONE you know who is anti brexit party votes. More so if they are a Remainer voting for a Remain party, but also if they are solid Labour or the rarest of things, a true blue.

It MATTERS. Narratives will be set.

If you are not sure if you are registered to vote, please TRY ANYWAY. The worst case is you are turned away and have lost 20 mins of your life. But you might also be able to vote and that might change the course of events.

Talk to people tomorrow. Remind them. Make sure it's about preventing a hard right foothold. Apathy will destroy our futures. Being fed up of politicians so refusing to vote is actively shooting yourself in the face.

Who am I voting for?

Still no idea. But I will vote.

BigChocFrenzy Fri 24-May-19 12:34:05

LouiseCollins "^I'm personally much more bothered about their leadership qualities than whether they personally voted Leave or Remain.^"

Yep, me too.

The most competent of the leading contenders, imo, who reportedly realised the dangers of No Deal once he returned to office, is Gove

I'd always have accepted a soft Brexit compromise that brought the country together
- no triumphalism, no demonising of enemies.

My main priority now is to avoid Farage getting more than a handful of MPs

imo, best to delay a GE long enough for Farage's party to implode into in-fighting & chaos, like UKIP did - the fault there was always with Farage and those around him

DGRossetti Fri 24-May-19 12:34:38

Am I right in thinking that historically it’s someone not mentioned much at the start that comes through to win?

When Thatcher went, there was an "Anyone but Heseltine" movement which worked behind the scenes to ensure the votes split over the candidates so he wouldn't get in.

John Major was very much the "who ?!" candidate that won. From memory he was unable to appear in debates much, as he had "toothache".

There was a good dramamentary made about it quite soon after. If my IMDB-fu was better (I must be imagining that you can't search for characters ?!) I'd link it ...

Littlespaces Fri 24-May-19 12:35:44

Interesting graph on this twitter page - apologies can't seem to post graph.

@PJHeneghan
Is turnout higher in remain areas?
Based on sample of 30 official turnout numbers collected so far. Early days but there could be a pattern here.

RedToothBrush Fri 24-May-19 12:35:53

DGR are you anticipating Boris to suddenly have dental issues then?

RedToothBrush Fri 24-May-19 12:39:08

Miranda Cannon @mirandacannon
The #Leicester turnout for the #EuropeanElection2019 is 32.58% Thanks to all the staff for their great work today on the verification and I’ll see some of you back here on Sunday for the count! @Leicester_News

LouiseCollins28 Fri 24-May-19 12:40:33

Wasn't it rather that John Major avoided the organised knifing of Thatcher because he had toothache? and could therefore present himself afterwards with a clean pair of hands. My memory on this point may be fault.

StripeyChina Fri 24-May-19 12:42:26

There was something a bit toddler like about the 'I love this country' delivery, I agree. The 'inner child' emerging under great stress / emotion.

BigChocFrenzy Fri 24-May-19 12:42:36

imo, May's tears were mostly because she failed and has gravely damaged the 2 entities she genuinely loves:

the Union and the Tory Party

She made a fatal mistake early on:
her choice of Brexit aims, particularly prioritising no FOM or ECJ
- she didn't realise until too late the consequences for the Uk economy and for NI.

She never managed to recover from that.
She was forced to try to achieve the impossible and ence her political strength keep weakening all the time, as it became clear she couldn't hatch a unicorn cake.

The WA, given her red lines, was the best that could be achieved and many EU countries were unhappy that the UK had too good a deal
- she genuinely managed as frictionless trade as is possible without SM membership.

DGRossetti Fri 24-May-19 12:42:46

DGR are you anticipating Boris to suddenly have dental issues then?

Quite the reverse.

From memory (and I really can't believe that IMBD doesn't have a "search for character" option ....) Majors winning the leadership was a surprise as he was the underdog (quite unlike Boris).

As I said, there was a naked "STOP HESELTINE" movement. Which led to people stepping down and urging their supporters to vote for someone else ... I think Ken Clarke stood, along with Lamont and Redwood ?

The question is - despite appearances - could there be a similar "stop Boris" sentiment.

Heseltine was feared as being a divisive figure - the Tories would have split under him ....

RedToothBrush Fri 24-May-19 12:45:03

Gt Yarmouth Council @greatyarmouthbc
EU election: The Great Yarmouth turnout was 31.4%, compared to 37.7% in 2014. We are among 45 local authority areas in the Eastern Region feeding into the regional result & turnout, being coordinated at Chelmsford. The count starts at 6pm Sunday, with results announced after 10pm

EU Ref: Leave 71.5%

StripeyChina Fri 24-May-19 12:45:21

Just looking at the clips of her over the last 3 years, thinking how damn tired she looks now. It is a job that ages you like no other I think, men equally as much as women of course. Couldn't care less about any PM's 'appearance' but she's looked utterly exhausted for some time now

TheABC Fri 24-May-19 12:45:25

At least the leadership contest is happening now and not over the summer recess. It gives the MPs enough time in the autumn to re-enact the headless chicken look before the October deadline. Happy days.

prettybird Fri 24-May-19 12:46:14

I wouldn't put it past Boris having some major scandal leaked by his own team so that he has to run away pull out shock

It was a poisoned chalice back in 2016; it is an even more of a toxic chalice now (thanks to May's own actions hmm)

Whoever takes on the job now will himself (or possibly but unlikely, herself) be consumed by it - and will not emerge stronger.

The only faint possibility for a Boris premiership is if (as was suggested earlier in the thread) he has the balls to say, "Fuck the ERG it, we're going to Revoke because getting the WA through Parliament is impossible and No Deal would be catastrophic".

But he won't.

So he'll let someone else take the flak again hmm

LouiseCollins28 Fri 24-May-19 12:47:15

Disagree completely BigChoc, as I said, she "got it." Her aims were not the ones I might personally have favoured, but they were absolutely the right ones for the result as given, I thought.

What did for her was the intransigence of others IMO, rather than her own.

SwedishEdith Fri 24-May-19 12:49:08

Interesting comment on Twitter - there was no such thing as a Remainer last time. It was Kippers who were more engaged then.

I try to be hopeful for a glimmer of something. At least got until Sunday before bubble bursts. grin

tobee Fri 24-May-19 12:52:12

True prettybird. I was saying last night that Boris would ideally like to become leader (like most people) when in opposition, when the other guy is doing a shit job and ride in as the saviour. Not now, 3 years down the line from this debacle.

If you been missing him, people, there's been a lovely lot of Mark Francois on bbc news. Together with Clare Fox and wee Owen Jones.

Oh he's gone now!

SwedishEdith Fri 24-May-19 12:52:26

Yes, also think more Boris stories will come out now no of one that was widely shared on mn a few years ago that I've still not seen published.

Where's Hammond in all this? Whatever the blowhards say won't change the maths.

howabout Fri 24-May-19 12:53:27

Mercer and JRM both already declared for Boris. Assume Raab is the insurance ERG ticket to corrall enough votes to roll over to Boris later. I think this was the Gove / Boris strategy last time round till Gove developed delusions of grandeur.

Agree with pp that strategy will be to call it "No Deal" and reverse back into most of the WA. The difference is the reversal in will be to end up at Barnier's Canada + option rather than TM and co's plan for Norway +.

Lots of talk of not risking GE while threat of BXTPty. However I would bank on GE with above "No Deal" strategy because Labour vote now so split with LibDem.

tobee Fri 24-May-19 12:55:24

Rupa Huq speaking a lot of sense on Sky. And giving no quarter to Jonathan Isaby. Good!

SwedishEdith Fri 24-May-19 12:55:50

*know!

Also wonder if Boris is a boil that needs lancing.

Is May seriously going to have to ponce around with Trump at some stage? How even more humiliating. He'll say something disrespectful as well, I bet.

Peregrina Fri 24-May-19 12:55:58

I noted from that chart that on the whole, the higher the Leave vote, the lower the turnout this time - not in all cases, but there seemed to be a trend, whereas the Remain areas were showing higher turnouts.

You mentioned Red that Flintshire was a Leave area. I used to live there a long time ago, so still follow its results. It has switched between Labour and Tory in the past. Remember it has the Airbus factory, and that might have begun to concentrate some minds now that the easiest deals in history are proving illusory. It returns Labour MPs at present and I think they are still less Brexity than the Tories. But we shall see.

My own area Vale of White Horse doesn't verify until Sunday so I don't know whether the turnout is good or not.

Coquillage Fri 24-May-19 12:56:40

Yes Johnson has a few skeletons in his cupboard. I must be thinking of the same one that I've seen mentioned on social media but absolutely not reported on in the press. His new, much younger, partner will now suddenly be under a lot of scrutiny too.

SusanWalker Fri 24-May-19 12:56:47

Clare Fox gives me the absolute rage.

DarlingNikita Fri 24-May-19 12:56:57

How DARE she mention Grenfell???

I thought that exactly. And DP and I laughed loud, long and derisorily (sp?) at her repeated mentions of 'compromise'. hmm All this time, all this shite, and she still has the self-reflection capacity of a breeze block.

tobee Fri 24-May-19 12:59:16

Hope some of the lame duck ness of Theresa will rub off on Trump. grin

BigChocFrenzy Fri 24-May-19 13:01:21

Her aims weren't sensible, because they meant far more damage to the UK economy than a Norway+ Brexit,
or than allowing at least 10 years to make Brexit a gradual process, not an abrupt event

Those aims lost her the soft Leavers, as well as the Tory & Labour Remainers

The ERG alone weren't enough to thwart her
- the number of Tory No Dealer MPs would probably not have reached 100, let alone the current 160, if she had chosen a different path, back in January 2017

SwedishEdith Fri 24-May-19 13:04:57

The one I saw about Boris was shared via pm only. It's not searchable, I don't think, on here.

RedToothBrush Fri 24-May-19 13:05:49

Eastern Region so far:
Cambridge - 44% +4%
East Cambridgeshire - 38.2% +6%
Harlow - 34% -4%
Great Yarmouth - 31% -6%
St Albans - 47% +4%

SW so far
Bath & NE Somerset - 44% +6%
Bournemout - 36% +6%
Exeter - 41% +0.4%
Plymouth - 35% -2%
Stroud - 46% +4%
Torridge - 39% +0.5%
Wiltshire - 44% +7%

Wales so far:
Cardiff - 41.5% +10%
Carmarthenshire - 41% +5%
Denbighshire - 37% +5%
Merthyr - 29% +2%
Monmouthshire - 42% +9%
Neath & Port Talbot - 35% +3%
Vale of Glamorgan - 41% + 5%

East Mids so far:
Ashfield - 31% +1%
Bassetlaw - 30% -3%
Boston - 32% -0.5%
Derby City - 31% -3%
Daventry - 38% +3%
Lincoln - 32% +2%
North Kesteven - 34% +2
South Holland - 32% -1%
South Kesteven - 36% +4%
West Lindsey - 34.5% +3%

Not seeing too many results from other regions yet.

Motherof3feminists Fri 24-May-19 13:06:55

Ah fuck I see I was totally unaware of the latest news 😩 I've not watched the speech. Not sure I want to but she cried!! I always cry seeing others cry and have just had something upsetting happen at home so I'd definitely cry. From reading your comments, it seems she's broken. She's held on all this time when she should have gone, and she's finally realised it's over and it's broken her. I feel sad but I have no sympathy considering what has happened on her watch. I for one am £250 a month down but many others are homeless, ill or dead.

I can't be happy that she's gone as someone worse will take her place but I'm relieved as she was has fucked this up so spectacularly. Maybe, just maybe a new PM will sort this shit show out. I hope with all my might that brexit is cancelled though.

Coquillage Fri 24-May-19 13:08:05

The New Yorker
@NewYorker
The possibility that Boris Johnson may indeed become Prime Minister is one of the many measures of the current reckless unseriousness of British politics.

RedToothBrush Fri 24-May-19 13:08:07

The number of votes cast within Melton Borough in the EU Parliamentary election was 14,249.This represents a turnout of 36.7% The Count will take place on Sunday evening. Declarations of both the local result & the result for the East Midlands Region will take place after 10pm.

+5% turnout on 2014.

Coquillage Fri 24-May-19 13:09:04

Jennifer Rankin
@JenniferMerode
In case anyone seriously thinks the EU is about to change everything for a PM Boris Johnson...

EU official: “We would be really stupid if we had refused the reasonable negotiators and now suddenly reopen the door to Boris. I don’t think so.”

RedToothBrush Fri 24-May-19 13:09:36

Edmund Dean @edofmund
Melton had a low turnout in 2014 but a high Ref vote turnout. This is a 5.1% increase on 2014. One of a handful of Leave areas which have had a stronger turnout so far...

Melton is north east leic around the Melton Mowbray area.

RedToothBrush Fri 24-May-19 13:10:36

Sunday Independent @thesundayindy
There we have it. The number of votes cast in Cornwall stands at 175,475, giving a turnout of 41.4%, 5.4% up from the 2014 elections #EuropeanElections #localpapersalwaysfirst

tobee Fri 24-May-19 13:11:28

Now I'm thinking about pork pies.

Cherrypi Fri 24-May-19 13:11:46

I would like Amber Rudd for Tory leader but that's never going to happen.

tobee Fri 24-May-19 13:12:40

Me too Cherrypi. Of the ones that have declared.

BigChocFrenzy Fri 24-May-19 13:13:30

"^strategy will be to call it "No Deal" and reverse back into most of the WA.^"

There are no signs that the E27 will agree to reopen the WA negotiations, especially the backstop.
All 27 countries would have to agree, in order to give the EU negotiating team it's terms of reference
So far, only about 3 leaders - like Farage's fascist chum Orbán - have made vaguely sympathetic noises about that.

The comments from the main players have always been that the alternative is No Deal

After a No Deal Brexit, the 3 main planks of the WA - backstop, exist bill, expat rights - are prerequisites for negotiations

To change this, the UK would have to offer the EU something that they want, that has not been offered before
- and I can't think of anything.

All that looks possible - from the EU side, at least - is Remaining in an outer circle of the EU, with guarantees of no further integration for the UK, no Euro etc

However, Cameron refused this back in 2015 because it would mean the UK not participating in decisions about further integration

I don't know if Cameron's decision could be walked back

The likelihood of No Deal is v high,
because anything else requires the new PM or the E27 to completely reverse their position

That would take a hell of a lot, to avoid the appearance of capitulation, weakness and humiliation

RedToothBrush Fri 24-May-19 13:14:25

It looks like turnout for the EU election is likely to be higher than 2014 from what is coming out so far.

But we also know that Labour and Cons are looking like they are doing badly.

This is consistent with a v high Brexit Party result and a high LD result.

Peregrina Fri 24-May-19 13:15:22

The thing is of course, come 1st November, assuming we are still in the EU, we will have a whole new set of negotiators. It's bound to make some sort of difference.

If we are out, well, it will still make a difference.

BigChocFrenzy Fri 24-May-19 13:18:56

Germany

Out of 96 EP seats, about 20 in total expected for Eurosceptics, 12 of which are for the AfD

That 20 is only an increase of 4 since 2014, which is before populism really took off.

As I've said before, it is the rise of the Greens the last few years which is really impressive,
but that is not so sexy for media reports.

New EP

dormant That poll of polls you linked upthread agrees with EP estimates in Germany:

out of 751 EP seats, roughly 50 for Farage’s far right populist group, Brexit+5-star

250 for Eurosceptics
almost all of whom - except for the UK - want reform of the EU, especially wrt refugee policy, not exit from it.

Rough groupings:

390 centrist parties
215 right
120 left

BigChocFrenzy Fri 24-May-19 13:21:45

peregrina Makes no difference for us to have a new set of negotiators, unless there are actually to be new negotiations

So far the EU has said it's the WA or No Deal (or Revoke)

As has been posted, it would be really odd to concede to PM Boris - whom they despise and resent for the insults - or any other ERG PM, what they wouldn't give May

woman19 Fri 24-May-19 13:23:55

@davidallengreen
Well, EU membership is still there and Theresa May is not.
smile

Peregrina Fri 24-May-19 13:24:55

I didn't say anything about new negotiations. But assuming the WA were to pass then the PD is up for negotiation with completely different people.

BigChocFrenzy Fri 24-May-19 13:28:36

Yep, maybe negotiations within the UK could proceed better during the honeymoon phase of a new leader

If a PD could be agreed, then the WA could then be passed
- imo it would be in that order, PD agreed then WA, if we are to avoid a No Deal Brexit

LonelyTiredandLow Fri 24-May-19 13:29:05

BigChoc but if Boris No Dealed us, then after a shortish time (enough for grumbles at the least but not long enough to enforce any real change - well this is the Tory party after all! - such as new regulations that would take us out of line with EU) he might offer to sign WA as long as he could call it something else and make superficial changes and EU promised not to broadcast the fact it is the same as TM's deal.

Or of course, that could be plan a) with plan b) if EU don't agree, being to sell out to USA. It could be ballsed up very easily either way. Especially by BoJo.

BigChocFrenzy Fri 24-May-19 13:29:57

The EU have offered several choices for the PD, so the new PM could basically go for anything that doesn't contradict any of the main planks of the WA

LonelyTiredandLow Fri 24-May-19 13:33:25

I personally think who ever is coming won't want to talk about it at all for any length of time, which is why I think we will be No Dealing whoever comes next.

BoJo is too much of a performer not to see a stage and plant himself in the centre of it.

He'll play to the Leavers first then "unite UK" with a remainer finale.

Motheroffourdragons Fri 24-May-19 13:36:46

But it doesnt matter who is in charge, they don't have the numbers for this WA.

So something will have to give somewhere.

Moanranger Fri 24-May-19 13:37:34

My French conversation group this morning all voted, and we shame-facedly agreed it was the first time we had voted in EU elections. (Aside, I think deHoult system is the problem more than apathy as we are used to voting for a named person within a party). Several tactical voters, all remain.
I think remainers are quietly voting, I think BP is a big noise.
We shall see Sun.

Motherof3feminists Fri 24-May-19 13:43:44

Oh. Having just listened, she's not so much upset as angry. That was anger and angry tears. Anger that everyone has said "you're shit, you need to go." I hear in that that she feels forced out, it's not a choice, but she's going before she is forced out. The only sadness she feels is for herself because she knows that most are against her and her handling of this. She has failed and she knows it. It's a shame she didn't see fit to right her wrongs when she had chance.

RedToothBrush Fri 24-May-19 13:45:41

Ballot papers have now been verified and the turnout in the #Conwy local count area was 38.57%. Votes will be counted on the evening of Sunday 26/05/19.

Moanranger Fri 24-May-19 13:50:44

Laura Kneussberg on BBC synopsis on TM captures the essence of her problems.
TM not collaborative, uncomfortable with other people, & in charge of a process requiring, negotiation, compromise, flattery, wheedling, etc. She completely lacked the skills for this, and I can see little evidence of this in any of the front-runners.
Grim times.

woman19 Fri 24-May-19 14:02:14

Fire Brigades Union using admirable restraint about that speech.
She exemplifies the very worst of caucasian middle england.

thethethethethe Fri 24-May-19 14:02:31

Just heard Stephen Kerr, Tory MP for Stirling, on Radio 4. He said that there should NEVER be another Scottish independence referendum!

Peregrina Fri 24-May-19 14:04:35

I said that about her right at the beginning - that she needed to be more collaborative - which Cameron was after all. As one person said, (I can't remember who), you could go up to him in the tea room and tell him to F* off, but at least he was there. May wasn't there.

She is the sort who would be much better in a no. 2 or 3 role - taking the bright ideas of a leader and with her capacity for hard work, putting flesh on them, and considering the detail.

woman19 Fri 24-May-19 14:05:03

@Sathnam
Theresa May quits
The leadership race begins:

Guy who makes you want to die: 13/8
Dude you literally don't recognise: 6/1
National joke 8/1
Blackhole of charisma: 10/1
She has kids, you know:12/1
The guy whose name sounds like a swear word: 16/

prettybird Fri 24-May-19 14:05:06

Is it wrong that I'm a bit grin at the thought of Trump having to waste spend time meeting a "lame duck" PM on her way out, when he us here for his minimum possible "State Visit"? wink

It just won't compute with him that she couldn't just write an executive order or issue a midnight rule that over-rides all democratic processes confused

If May doesn't have any self-awareness, Trump has even less hmm

DGRossetti Fri 24-May-19 14:06:06

Just heard Stephen Kerr, Tory MP for Stirling, on Radio 4. He said that there should NEVER be another Scottish independence referendum

It's gone very quiet, but isn't there still some question as to whether Scotland needs Westminster approval to secede from the Union ?

Yes, "secede". Some might get more from that word than others grin ...

prettybird Fri 24-May-19 14:09:45

thethethethe - don't you realise? Democracy is not for the likes if Scotland and we should know our place, forever and a day and whatever the hell we get dragged in to hmm

Fortunately, I think current GE predictions suggest he'll lose his seat (along with the rest of the Conservatives) grin

thethethethethe Fri 24-May-19 14:10:44

She was a bully. Bullies don't know what to do when they are the weaker party.

lonelyplanetmum Fri 24-May-19 14:11:38

Is it wrong that I'm a bit * at the thought of Trump having to* waste* spend time meeting a "lame duck" PM on her way out,*

And of course he will give her 'advice' as to where she went wrong.

woodpigeons Fri 24-May-19 14:17:57

Please send me a link to the online psychopath test Coquillage. I think I need to do it.
Re overseas students and you’ll have to take it on trust that I know what I’m talking about as too much detail would out DH.
Language schools are accredited by the British Council and are regularly checked. The tests they do are standardised.
Student visas are tied to a particular institution and course. No shows have to be reported to the police and HO. An institution is penalised for having too many no shows so they have to be sure that the school doing the test is genuine and has a good reputation.
It is possible for a student to get someone else to take their test. However they have to produce passports and other documents before taking the test and these should be checked thoroughly.
That said they may manage to get onto a course with little student contact. They’ll probably not be spotted until they start failing exams.
Otherwise they may have no intention of becoming a student and disappear into the black economy. A language school providing fake visas in this way will soon be noticed and will lose their accreditation.
So it’s really not that easy.
Personally I think the whole think is part of May’s vendetta against foreigners which started when she insisted on adding students to her immigration figures. They had previously been in a separate category. Therefore to cut immigration she had to cut the numbers of students from outside the eu.

woman19 Fri 24-May-19 14:19:59

Maga and Russian trolls who infested these thread post referendum were incensed at any criticism of may. Tells me all I need to know about her and the funders' intentions of how to use her. She is tragically thick, in a peculiarly home counties way.

lonelyplanetmum Fri 24-May-19 14:22:14

Boris promising a Halloween crash out if need be.

woman19 Fri 24-May-19 14:27:26

@election_data
This the list of confirmed turnouts so far, listed by the size of increase from 2014. Also includes Remain % and 2014 turnout. H/t
twitter.com/election_data/status/1131900211562000395

colouringinpro Fri 24-May-19 14:32:13

Really frightened an out No Deal prospect now since Boris f**king Johnson's statement. Brexit shambles is seriously harming my mental health 😪

StripeyChina Fri 24-May-19 14:35:11

On a childish note, can anyone who is willing to share any Boris skeletons / rumours pm me pls?
I appreciate they are only rumours but it would cheer me along, as I write my Disability Discrimination Appeal letter.

BigChocFrenzy Fri 24-May-19 14:35:52

" something will have to give somewhere."

Either the new PM is able to agree a PD with Labour - so both sides give - or we'll No Deal

LonelyTiredandLow Fri 24-May-19 14:36:52

Yes, Kerr on R4 re Scottish Ref had an interesting idea that the people of Scotland voted knowingly for a Tory Gov on the complete understanding that the EU referendum was going to happen and so, despite the fact they voted to remain, must have understood the risks (in not so many words). The idea of Leave being completely insane back then as well as the non-legally binding referendum that Scotland was told in HoC wouldn't 'drag them out' if they voted to remain didn't get a mention hmm Sounded very similar to the '80% of people voted for a party with Brexit on their manifesto' to me hmm

RedToothBrush Fri 24-May-19 14:37:35

Patrick Henegen @pjhenegen
Sorted by largest increases in turnout

Wales?!

What's going on in Wales?

Did anyone see that one coming?

(I don't think I've seen anything about Wales)

1tisILeClerc Fri 24-May-19 14:38:24

{And of course he will give her 'advice' as to where she went wrong.}

As long as they are in a quiet corner well away from anything else they can spend as many hours on that as they like. The more the better.

LonelyTiredandLow Fri 24-May-19 14:39:11

In fact Kerr's response in that sums up exactly where Tory and Labour parties are encouraging us not to ever vote for them again. Both using the same "well, you trusted us!" has finally begun to be noticed on more than a subconscious level.

RedToothBrush Fri 24-May-19 14:40:32

The turnout for Warwick district for the European Election was 42% #wmeuro19

Up 4%

woman19 Fri 24-May-19 14:41:14

Did anyone see that one coming
Wales reverted to Remain in July 2016 soon after Sunderland in 2016 didn't they?
But increase in turnout could mean increase in turquoise?

SwedishEdith Fri 24-May-19 14:41:31

Graham Brady has just quit as chair of 1922 committee and is considering standing for PM. Interesting as Trafford demographics are changing - they voted a Green at the local elections. I think the move of the BBC has helped make it more of a little London.

So, long-winded way of saying, he could be one of the outsiders who gets the job but, also, so many key ERG types are in vulnerable seats.

BigChocFrenzy Fri 24-May-19 14:42:35

"Maga and Russian trolls who infested these thread post referendum were incensed at any criticism of may."

woman That changed from about Dec 2017
After that, she became a hate figure, called a Remainer traitor and was e.g. threatened with a noose by her own Ultra MPs.

I recently saw a horrific photoshopped picture of her with slogans about betrayal branded all over her face, like enemies of the state would be branded in some N Korean type dictatorship

NoWordForFluffy Fri 24-May-19 14:43:52

Rushcliffe is interesting as that's Ken Clarke's constituency. So, it's been Tory forever. But, it's actually more of what you'd think of as typical LD territory. I'll be interested to see what the result is there.

StripeyChina Fri 24-May-19 14:47:30

Interesting, re Brady...

BigChocFrenzy Fri 24-May-19 14:50:50

France Predictions

Pro-EU total 45 : Eurosceptic (but not Frexit) 29

Macron predicted a large increase over 2014
so about level with the populists, which are predicted to drop slightly from 29014 level
Then assorted greens, socialists, conservatives

prettybird Fri 24-May-19 14:57:02

Kerr stunningly ignores of course angry the inconvenient fact that Scotland returned a majority 35 SNP MPs out of the 59 Scottish MPs and only 13 (iirc) Conservative MPs confused

But I suppose it's the same logic as "Conservatives and Labour were decimated by the LibDems in the local elections, so that means that the people are telling us to get on with it" line of thought confused

Admittedly, the number of SNP MPs was down on the unprecedented 56 that they'd got in 2015 - but despite Wee Ruthy trying to make the 2017 GE ( and the 2017 Scottish Parliament elections) a proxy for a (negative) Indyref vote, the Conservatives still failed to get a majority in Scotland.

And current polling suggests that Scotland will revert to the 56 x SNP in a GE - hardly an endoresment of Conservative (or Labour hmm) policies.

SwedishEdith Fri 24-May-19 15:00:33

I got sidetracked looking for the story I knew to see if it was online (it is easily findable) and found this. Wonder how the Mail will spin him now?

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6144909/How-Boris-Johnsons-wife-years-betrayal-calling-lawyers.html

'And if she were to feel a twinge of malicious pleasure in the public confirmation that Boris is an unreliable husband — and, ergo, possibly not entirely suited to the greatest office of Prime Minister — who could really blame her?'

LouiseCollins28 Fri 24-May-19 15:01:39

Interesting piece here on the potential for Parliament to prevent a "no deal" Brexit should the new Prime Minister be committed to a "no deal" outcome.

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/new-prime-minister-intent-no-deal-brexit-cant-be-stopped-mps-0

Violetparis Fri 24-May-19 15:01:49

The Tories lost Trafford Council to Labour in the local elections. Not sure how safe Graham Brady's seat in Trafford is.

SwedishEdith Fri 24-May-19 15:03:05

Exactly violet.

DGRossetti Fri 24-May-19 15:03:20

The problem is that Boris' infidelities make him a ledge-end amongst the pale male stale Tories that will support him. Remember, being a misogynist Tory isn't an oxymoron. It's a tautology.

SwedishEdith Fri 24-May-19 15:07:08

For some men, yes. But Brexit is very much a male issue.

celtiethree Fri 24-May-19 15:10:13

Kerr member of the ERG in a constituency that voted 67% remain responds to his constituents with the crap ‘will of the people’ line when pushed on actually representing his constituents. Won the last election with a majority of 148, I really hope he loses his seat. It should revert to SNP in the next election.

DGRossetti Fri 24-May-19 15:10:26

For some men, yes

The ones that get to vote, which is all that matters.

SwedishEdith Fri 24-May-19 15:10:36

Lewis Goodall
‏*@lewis*_goodall

Just a reminder, if Boris Johnson does become prime minister he’ll have the most marginal seat (Uxbridge) of any prime minister or major party leader for generations.

Violetparis Fri 24-May-19 15:11:20

SwedishEdith what do I need to type in google search to find the Boris story you are talking about ? I've just read a book called 'Anatomy of a Scandal' by Sarah Vaughan. It's a fiction novel about a scandal in Westminster, all about priviledge, cover ups, entitlement etc. It's a great summer read, though fact seems wierder than fiction at the moment.

lonelyplanetmum Fri 24-May-19 15:12:49

Being a misogynist Tory isn't an oxymoron. It's a tautology.

Very good DGR.

It's true of Faragists too of course. The Tories need to split and merge into the Faragynists.

RedToothBrush Fri 24-May-19 15:16:45

Chelmsford Council @ChelmsCouncil
European Election 2019, Eastern Region turnout - In the region, there was a total electorate of 4,407,975. There were 1,603,017 votes cast. This represents a turnout of 36.37%.

Nuneaton&BedworthBC @NBBCouncil
Local Euro election votes were verified last night - Borough turnout was 33.47% (similar to 2014's 34%).
The count is on Sun 26, with results expected during the evening #wmeuro19. Nuneaton & Bedworth, is one of 30 local authorities forming the West Mids region, electing 7 MEPs.

DGRossetti Fri 24-May-19 15:16:46

It will be interesting to see how Mays replacement manages to mess it up even more than she did. I know it's a tough task, but looking at the front runners (insert the Iron Duke quote here, if you want to smile to yourself) I have every confidence they can pull it off.

The biggest problem the incoming PM will have is not having a blank sheet to start with. Which may - or may not - prove to be the key here hmm. Obviously they can't just carry on with Mays plan, and there isn't time - or the goodwill - to do anything about the WA.

If a no-deal Brexit can deliver gold shitting unicorns by 2022, the path is clear. If not, whoever does the no-deal dance will be leading the Tories into oblivion in 2022.

Funny, in all the excitement people are forgetting to post what Cameron has to say about this all. My guess is "nice wine".

prettybird Fri 24-May-19 15:18:07

Turqouise Big Arrow Party supporters should be called faragits wink

QuentinWinters Fri 24-May-19 15:25:37

I hope Wales is down to a big turn out for Plaid Cymru. I think they give disaffected labour voters a natural home, something we don't have in England.
That might also explain why the NW vote is low - if remain leaning Labour voters stayed at home because they couldn't hold their nose for lib dem/green/chuk

QuentinWinters Fri 24-May-19 15:26:06

Not sure if that's the case, whether it's good for remain or leave

prettybird Fri 24-May-19 15:30:38

Just seen this on as a reply on a friend's timeline....

Can't they just put Chris Grayling in charge - what's the worst that could happen? grin

for the avoidance of doubt, it was sarcastic wink

Don't know whether to laugh or cry at the thought winkshockgrinshockgrin

ColdNeverBotheredMeAnyway Fri 24-May-19 15:35:52

I heard anger in her tears, rather than sadness. She is indignant that it has come to this.

I also felt that her anecdote about Nicholas Winterton was deeply ironic. I suspect Winterton felt the need to press upon her the need for compromise as a warning, because she was patently failing to display any whatsoever. He was warning and chastising her, not congratulating her!

RedToothBrush Fri 24-May-19 15:42:36

Robin Cantrill-Fenwick @RobinComms
Euro elections turnout figure for the North East has just been published - 32.7%
<<<<<

Turnout for the region in 2014 was 31.6%.

In order of turnout increase in 2019:
Durham 27.6% +5
Newcastle Upon Tyne 34.8% +4%
Darlington +2%
Stockton +2%
Northumberland +2%
Middlesborough 24.2% +1%
Redcar and Clevand 29.6% +0.1%
Gateshead 35.30% -1%
South Tyneside 33.90% -2%
Sunderland 32.30% -2%
Hartlepool 27.1% -2%

3 seats up for grabs here. Current 2 Lab, 1 UKIP.
No sign of vote collapse. No sign of meaningful surge.
Difficult to tell, but it doesn't look on the face of it, that anything odd has happened. Tends to suggest the same voters as last time turned out.
Maybe one will turn turquoise to make 2. Hard to see how all three seats will turn Brexit Party though (this is good).

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