Westminstenders: One Pepperoni Pizza Please. And a Milkshake To Go.

St Helens (58% Leave) turnout is 28.6%. Down 2.2% on 2014. Similar to Leigh, Makerfield and Wigan.

Will Jennings @drjennings
If you want to speculate wildly about the #EuropeanElection2019 based on early turnout figures, then @PJHeneghan and @election_data have all the data you need in their feeds...

Ben Page, Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori
To me looking at our turnout modelling it means Brexit party do well but not astonishingly well.

A pollster tempts fate...

“Reversion to the mean” could apply with higher turn out, meaning the result could be closer to an average. Very small populations ( statistical populations) can result in outlier results, so higher turn out should end up reflecting the middle ground. I have always noticed that Brexiteers make a big noise, but when it comes to actually showing up (remember the 29 March damp squib?) tend to fizzle out.In contrast to the nearly 1 million Remainer March.
Or I could be completely wrong.

I have always noticed that Brexiteers make a big noise, but when it comes to actually showing up (remember the 29 March damp squib?) tend to fizzle out
A metaphor for the Damien Green syndrome with which so many of them are afflicted?

Ian Warren @election_data
First numbers from London. Lambeth (79% Remain) has verified turnout of 42%, up 5.7% from 2014.

Fintan O'Toole
@fotoole
So Britain's now had the two worst PMs in its history one straight after the other. The chances of a hat trick seem very high.

EalingCouncil @EalingCouncil
EU election - Thank you to everyone who voted yesterday. We have verified 100,429 ballots which is a 45.45% turnout in Ealing.

The votes will be counted on Sunday and announced after 10pm

+2% on 2014

For some men, yes

The ones that get to vote, which is all that matters.

We should also remember Farage has also cheated on his wife, walked away from car crashes, plane crashes and repeatedly not answered any tricky questions whatsoever - people who want Brexit At All Costs simply don't care.

Thanks for sharing all these numbers Red. A few years ago I would never have dreamt I would be so fascinated by the turnout numbers in an EU election. Do you or does anyone else know how the UK results will be announced ? Will all the candidates be on a public stage somewhere like normal elections ?

East Suffolk Council @EastSuffolk
^All the votes cast locally in the #EuropeanElection2019 have been verified and the official turnout for East Suffolk was 37.3%.
Counting will take place on Sunday once all votes across Europe have been cast. ^

Ian Warren @election_data
Wandsworth (75% Remain) has verified turnout of 47%, up by 8.2% from 2014.

KEEP YOUR EYES OUT FOR HILLINGDON.

Can someone PM me with the Boris stories if they can? Or a nudge in the Google direction. Ta.

Farage doesn't want Brexit, he wants unrest, the more the better.
If you could have a life 'swanning around' chatting to people and not promising much, bankrolled by 'at least slightly' dodgy people and quietly making money on the volatility of the markets (part of his old gold trading activities as he obviously wasn't mining it personally), would you go for it?
Currently a sufficient teflon coating to slip out the back (oo err!) just before trouble starts.

This is the scandal I saw: sorry about the Express link
www.express.co.uk/news/uk/671428/Boris-Johnson-Marina-Wheeler-drunken-romp-lawyer-Remain-campaign

Purely speculating here, but is the trend towards higher turn out associated with Remain areas? If that is the case ( and it may not be) then that would mean more middle ground voters have been motivated. If the trend is higher turn out for Leave areas, then I would deduct that Leave voters are more motivated. That is, the EU elections are pushing Remainers harder than Leavers. ( I know about Wales, but I expect that to be for Plaid Cymru)
I could well be suffering from observer bias, but the turn out numbers are giving me hope.

Interesting about voter turnout being the biggest in Durham and Newcastle for the north east. Newcastle voted remain, I think - one of the big remainer cities of the north, but Durham - a university town - voted leave. BUT by June 23rd most of the students will have gone home whereas a month earlier - they are all still there and starting the glorious last three weeks of term, where there are no lectures and no exams and no essays to write. i.e there will be a significantly larger amount of remain leaning voters in Durham today (with not a whole lot to do) than there will be in a months time. Could account for their having a large increase in turnout.

I voted in my first ever election in Durham in 2005. I voted lib dem - though, of course, labour won that election ... happier times.

I'm hoping the same, @Moanranger!

Can someone PM me with the Boris stories if they can? Or a nudge in the Google direction. Ta.

The best Boris story is his mate Darius Guppy. Google Darius Guppy recording.

This is old but genuine- you can clearly hear BoJo acquiescing to planning criminal bodily harm.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iDJWkS2A9T0

I realise I'm in a minority, but I don't really let a politician's private life affect my view of them as a politician.
I'm not considering any of them as a partner.

Totally different of course if there is sleaze in their professional life,
e.g. dodgy funding, associates or expenses, or any law-breaking, private or professional

Ian Warren *@election*_data
Hammersmith & Fulham (70% Remain) verified turnout is 45%, up by 4.6% on 2014.

Fenland Council @FenlandCouncil
The turnout for the #EuropeanElection2019 in the @FenlandCouncil area was 31.33%. The count will commence at 4pm on Sunday.

-2% on 2014

Ian Warren *@election*_data
Torfaen (60% Leave) has verified turnout at 33.7%, up 4.3% on 2014.

Hmm Wales is doing what the SW is doing. Going both remainy and brexitty.

A few exceptions, e.g. abandoning their DC, not paying maintenance

I realise I'm in a minority, but I don't really let a politician's private life affect my view of them as a politician.

Until they start telling us how to live out lives. Then it's gloves off, fair game and fuck you. If they want to oversee a benefits system which demands of women whether they have been raped or not before they can access a benefit, then we can stick our noses into their lives and what they get up to with our taxes.

I'm hoping the same, @Moanranger!

Me to, and being in the South East it would really be the icing on the cake if Farage didn't top the poll. Oh, and if Hannan were not to get a seat at all that would add a cherry too.

We can but dream!

BCP Council @BCPCouncil
The official overall turnout figure for the South West region for the #EuropeanElection2019 have now been announced at 40.51% - see the full breakdown:

{I'm not considering any of them as a partner.}
An image to ponder, that 'beaut' Cyril Smith in a mankini.
Struggling to mane any of similar stature at present.

I realise I'm in a minority, but I don't really let a politician's private life affect my view of them as a politician.

And for the record, Loathsome Leadsom crossed a spectacular line in 2016 when she tried to swing the " ... as a mother ..." line. It is the one sole thing I have every sympathy for Theresa May for. It was unacceptable at any time and say a lot more about Andrea Leadsom than she would like us to know.

Does wasting millions on vanity projects like the Garden Bridge or more millions on purchasing illegal water cannons count as sleaze?

It's certainly a mis-use of public funds

High turnout in places with very strong pro EU grassroots groups, I see.

I realise I'm in a minority, but I don't really let a politician's private life affect my view of them as a politician.

This is true for me if I like them. If I don’t I’m quite happy to use it to sling mud. Boris deserves all the mud he gets. 😬

Ian Warren @election_data
Bristol (62% Remain) has verified turnout of 44.6% in the #EuropeanElections2019 , up 8% from 2014.

Main consolation for me will be the likely annihilation of the Tories
I'd rejoice especially at a single digit % vote

All this shit is 100% their fault

There is, unfortunately, zero possibility that Faragit won't win an MEP seat

Main consolation for me will be the likely annihilation of the Tories

Which is a little like saying WW2 was made up for by losing some pig ugly buildings

There is, unfortunately, zero possibility that Faragit won't win an MEP seat

Doesn't that preclude him from standing in a UK parliamentary election ?

Flogging the water cannons might have been a mistake, Brexit isn't resolved yet.
It's one way to wash milkshake off.

Which is a little like saying WW2 was made up for by losing some pig ugly buildings

Three words for you:

Post War Coventry.

What’s going on in WAles? I’m expecting Plaid to do well as well as LDs.

Having done a little poll among regular Lab voters, most voted PC or LD.

Interestingly the two Brexiters in the offices voted Labour (so they say).

"wasting millions on vanity projects"

counts as professional incompetence and unfitness for office, not sleaze

Also landing a British women in a longer prison sentence

Also (Grayling) making mistakes in all his ministerial jobs that have cost the country 2.5 billion quid

Doesn't that preclude him from standing in a UK parliamentary election ?

He can always quit. Nige is good at quitting.

(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges
Being told early Euro-election postal vote and turnout returns looking good for Lib Dems and poor for Labour.

{There is, unfortunately, zero possibility that Faragit won't win an MEP seat}
Isn't the EU investigating him for anything?
Marine Le Pen has been fined €300,000 for incorrect accounting when she was an MP/MEP.

DG I didn't say a Tory wipeout would be worth all this shit, just that it was the main consolation I could find

btw, didn't you used to say that Brexit might be worth it if it meant the permanent destruction of the Tory party ?

Post War Coventry.

One of my favourite museums ... if you like secular reflection, the section on reconciliation, and the 1960s photos of German teenagers coming over to help rebuilding is a powerful message for all time.

I didn't cry over Theresa - I must be hardhearted.

Then I read this: But who will pour the tea now? asked Mog sadly

Perhaps I'm not so hardhearted after all

btw, didn't you used to say that Brexit might be worth it if it meant the permanent destruction of the Tory party ?

I did. But it's a consolation prize.

Farage is certain to win a seat, but it will still be good to see the LibDems and Greens do well, which I sincerely hope they do. And if Remain parties get a bigger percentage in the south east than the Brexit party it might help to stop his mouth up.

He only needs to quit if he wins an MP seat.

The EU would, no doubt, be glad to see the back of him.

And anyway, at the moment, it looks like we'll be "choosing" to leave, whether Parliament or the population at large wants it or not (according to that IoG article) at the end of October.

Whilst The Waste Land might be more appropriate, thinking of Coventry does curry hope ...

We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time.

I'm really interested to see which, if any, of the pollsters predicted the result reasonably accurately,
at least within the standard +/-3% error margin.

Obviously a challenge to forecast % for a brand new party, some of whose voters previously didn't vote, so have no track record.
especially now the 2 main parties appear to be in vote meltdown

The pollsters must be waiting for the EP results with as much anxiety as any politician

I mean national vote shares, not seats

Where can I find the turnout figures? My council has not published them, or I can't find them.

From that Institute for Govt link upthread:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/new-prime-minister-intent-no-deal-brexit-cant-be-stopped-mps-0

^ ^*It looks like a near impossible task for MPs to stop a prime minister who is determined to leave the EU without a deal.*

Parliamentary procedure offers no route, and the only apparent way to blocking no deal – a vote of no confidence – would be a massive gamble for Tory MPs.

Your council might not have done the verification yet, so they won't know what the turnout was. Otherwise they usually put them up on their websites.

Dominic Grieve has said he'd back a NC motion to stop no deal if there was no other way to do it. We just need a few more with his principles.

Would I be correct in assuming that - irrespective of who the next PM is, the menu of choices available to them would remain the same ? The only real latitude they would have is in presentation and spin ?

and that menu - like a Valentines day set menu - is pretty limited ?

In no particular order:

1) continue with Mays WA (which begs the question why did May resign ?)
2) revoke (claiming need for blank sheet)
3) demand the EU renegotiate the WA, and then have a hissy strop when they say "va te faire foutre" and then
4) either proceed to no-deal, or just start at no-deal and take it from there
5) General Election

Incidentally, didn't parliament insist there be no "no-deal" ?

Thank you Peregrina.

That depends on about 10 Tories voting NC against their own govt,

- more if the Labour Brexiters support the govt again

In fact, we can't be sure Corbyn would actually call an NC to prevent No Deal.

It would be helpful if JC would follow TM's lead.

It would be helpful if JC would follow TM's lead.

Why ? He's seen her off. I bet Corbynistas are already selling this as one of his Greatest Victories.

Yep, DG The Tory party playing PM musical chairs will not cause the EU to make concessions.

In fact makes it even less likely, as they'd suspect Brexit will destroy the new Tory leader just like the last one / several - so no point anyway

"didn't parliament insist there be no "no-deal" ?"

See the Inst govt link;
as we've often discussed, the HoC can only use political pressure - no legally binding way other than a vote of NC to change the govt

Corbyn has seen off two Tory PMs! Remember Cameron telling him to 'Go man'.

BCF. I think my gut is leaning towards the last YouGov poll which put the Brexit Party on 37% was slightly over cooked. But I do think they will get over 30%. Probably towards 35%.

I hope its less than that.

The SW has higher turnout - it was leaning LD / Brexit most. Thats consistent with YouGov.

Lincolnshire in the East is particularly Brexity, and the turnout being higher than the locals a few weeks back, smells of heavy turquoise.

And the NE turnout staying reasonably stable - but after the local election and with higher turnout in remain areas - hints to me that Labour will do badly and the Brexit Party will gain a seat there (but the constituency only being 3 seats limits problems).

I think London is looking much better than it could have gone. I have hopes for the NW doing better too - but little data on that so far.

Wales has just gone mad! It was supposed to be very similar, according to the pollsters, to the west and east midlands. This is simply not the case. I'm guessing 2 Brexit Party, 1 Labour, 1 Plaid. (Which does tie with polling).

Not heard a peep out of Yorkshire and Humber.

Rumours are Scotland turnout is up but I've not seen any data for that either. Turnout being up in Scotland, I would interpret as being good for Remain parties and bad for Brexit Party.

East Mids is stagnant. Suspect Brexit Party will do well from Lab/Con collapse tbh. No one else has a foothold to work from.

West mids. Again heard nothing.

West Mids and East Mids are the two I'm worried about tbh.

SE I'm expecting better results than expected - its the largest constituency. Higher Remain turnout works here and will make a difference with d'hondt.

Not sure how many more turnout figures we'll get now tonight. Its after 5pm so I suspect thats it. Everyone has clocked off and gone hope until Sunday.

Incidentally, didn't parliament insist there be no "no-deal
The markets know it is legally automatic. £ is in freefall today, following the pronouncement by Stanley's 'handy' son. Chink chink.

I suspect that one the results are in on Sunday and the labour party have been trounced, they will realise that Corbyn needs to go.

How many of us former labour voters have said we won't back labour while he is leader?

It's not extant yet, but I notice elsewhere a couple of rabid (and arguably paranoid) Brexiteers signalling this as the last act to thwart Brexit ...

(goes to quote)

^She has kicked the can further up the street and in my opinion to to
deliberately delay any possible brexit. Earliest for a new PM will be July, then they enter recess, on return they will have a couple of weeks to sort before the Oct deadline. It ain't going to happen. She has sabotaged the Oct deadline.^

Obviously a lot of frothing, but a few glints of insight. That post caught my eye, mainly because it was (a) spelt properly, and (b) not in capitals.

The point about the recess is interesting. It gives Mays successor a good clear 8 weeks without parliament to bother them . Which echoes the plan to force Brexit by suspending parliament over March-April.

East Midlands was a Tory stronghold. Vile mp who Bercow called a sycophant.
Quite a well off area. Can’t see them being enamoured of Farage but they’ll probably vote for him to leave.

Kunarian @Kunarian
Update. 99 authorities. Estimated 2,175k Leave votes and 1,892k Remain votes in play. Estimated increase of 132k Leave votes and 152k Remain votes. The new turnouts don't significantly shift the Remain turnout advantage.

Your basic problem is this. Remain needed an even bigger increase in turnout than this because the vote is split between parties.

How many of us former labour voters have said we won't back labour while he is leader?

Plus the (rarely mentioned these days ) "floating voters" (raises hand).

I've had to follow Ian dunt. He's just a nobby twat

Friend who was the Chief Electoral Officer at a polling station (if that's the correct term ) said that it was quiet (although his station is always very quiet - a very poor part of Glasgow) and slowly getting towards about 30% when I asked him at about 8pm - but the good news is that he said it was very much the younger generation who'd been in this time

DGR, whoever is the next PM, has the summer recess to work out how the fuck they pass the Queen's Speech. Otherwise there WILL be no parliament before the deadline and every chance of a GE. Which any new leader will want to avoid.

Whatever happened to floating voters? I've not heard about them for ages!

DGR, whoever is the next PM, has the summer recess to work out how the fuck they pass the Queen's Speech

They could also revoke without parliamentary meltdown ... #justsayin'

I try to read the more thoughtful Brexiteer thinking. Luckily it doesn't take long.

I seem to have an uncanny knack of being out of the country when a Brexit-related milestone occurs.

May negotiating the WA (that everyone hates) with the EU back in November 2018, with time running out: conference in Munich.
Original Brexit day (29 March): travelling to Cyprus
Brexit day v2 (12 April): business trip to Rotterdam
EU election results (26/27 May): overnight ferry to the Netherlands
Brexit day v3 (31 Oct?): on holiday in Cyprus

I was supposed to be in Luxembourg today, but the trip got cancelled

May I therefore suggest a General Election date of 19 September (when I’ll be away again)?

You know how passionate Brexiteers are about democracy ?

Once this new one comes in, 3 of our last 5 PM's have been unelected.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3594333-Westministenders-The-One-Where-Everyone-is-an-Election-Expert-For-3-Days?watched=1
New Thread

Glad I'm not the only one missing the west mids turn out figures thought I just hadn't found them.

Oops.

Jim Pickard
‏@PickardJE

I'm told the Lib Dems believe they've probably beaten Labour in Islington in the European elections

I'm told the Lib Dems believe they've probably beaten Labour in Islington in the European elections

CRASH CAR FOR CORBYN.

Depending on how many candidates stand for the Tory leadership, it could be several weeks after 8 June until the final 2 are selected,

after which they need to organise the party membership vote
- which hopefully won't be as shambolic as these EP elections, with people being unfairly denied their vote

I've read that the new leader might even be announced shortly before the Tory party conference, which is 29 Sep - 2 Oct

Whenever the leader is chosen, serious work - talks with Labour, concessions etc - might be delayed until after the conference , to avoid the new leader getting mauled right away.

That would leave just 4 weeks until this extension runs out

That Islington result would be brilliant !

Depressing that you also think Farage will get 30%+, red
Imo, anything under 30% would dampen things down a bit and give breathing space for the grownups to work

I can't seem to find them anywhere myself so can someone please point me to info on the turnout for the NW?

Talk about not wasting the extension time, as Donald Tusk asked.

Talk about not wasting the extension time, as Donald Tusk asked.

I was wondering what he would think of the latest time wasting debacle. There was talk on BBC about how the new PM might then go back to the EU to ask for another extension.... on what grounds? On the grounds that they can't organise a piss up in a brewery, that they were specifically told that they must not waste this extra time but they decided to fuck about with a leadership contest instead of actually sorting out the mess they've created...?

Imo, anything under 30% would dampen things down a bit and give breathing space for the grownups to work

Yep. But unless something totally unpredicted and off radar happens that's not happening. Boris's statement about no deal is your biggest tell that its simply not on the cards unfortunately.

Never in the history of politics in this country has there been so many candidates for Priminister with the least talent to be one. Not a States person among them.