How will society respond if we crash out on the 29th March?

[SparklySneakers]

The clock continues to tick its relentless way until March 29th.
If the votes next week don't secure a deal and the EU doesn't agree an extension of any length so we crash out, how will society respond? How do you see the future of the UK over the next year?

Personally I am worried but holding on to a small amount of hope.

[Bearbehind]

It’s not going to happen.

If you’d told me 2 and a half years ago I’d actually be disappointed by that I would have said you were mad. It now it’s seems the only way to end this chaos and actually silence those who continue to think it will be fine.

TM will grind everyone down to push through her deal somehow and we’ll end up in a worse position than before with no benefits to speak of.

[bellinisurge]

I think they will accept WA and we won't crash out. But if we do, I predict low level grumbling and claims that everything is fiiiiiine for a week or so. And then the problems start.

[nuttynutjob]

I too think WA will pass. However, Brexit means the UK have lost its power and influence- future influence, decisions, opt outs etc.

Shame.

We are better IN the tent than pissing outside the tent.

[FriendOrFaux]

The WA will go through, and the EU will grant a technical extension to facilitate the legislation.
But as with everything else, it's a waiting game to see what actually happens.

[ScarletBitch]

I am ashamed of our Government and the absolute disdain they have for us. I hope we leave as voted, sick of hearing about it.

[AlphaJura]

All the no dealers will be ecstatic that 'democracy' has been respected. When the shit hits the fan and a lot of their lives are affected they will probably blame 'remoaners', the 'bullying EU' and TM oh and 'the elite'.

[lljkk]

Sadly... There is no plausible political future that doesn't involve huge amount more hassle, disruption, civil service drained resources, bitter social divide, economic uncertainty, Parliamentary paralysis, journalists struggling not to just talk about Brexit all the time.

Current-WA looks like the least bad of all the options that still means all above will happen but relatively minimises them.

[pink412]

We won’t crash out there will be a last minute deal or extension. If we do all prices will go up as everything from the outside world will get 20% vat added on as soon as it arrives (only variable products)

[1tisILeClerc]

{We won’t crash out there will be a last minute deal or extension.}
Ant form of leaving will involve around a year of the government sorting itself out and then start negotiating. Even a 'crash out will take a year or more, the WA would be probably 3 years or more. The only outcome that is remotely 'quick' and relatively painless is revoking on 29 March. The UK is in for the long haul, the games have hardly started.

[SparklySneakers]

@ScarletBitch you do realise leaving us just the start of negotiating actual deals don't you? We'll be hearing about this for years to come as deal after deal gets discussed.

[SparklySneakers]

Cross post 1tisILeClerc

[Caucasianchalkcircles]

I was listening to something Brexity on the radio the other day. They had a contributor on who declared himself a no dealer, true libertarian and in favour of a very small state. Fair enough as I suspect most of the ERG are like that. Unfortunately I don’t think the 17 plus million who voted leave are necessarily that ideological- many are angry at austerity and underinvestment, inequalities, rampant privatisation, a lack of a genuine voice in elections due to FPTP. I think they will be incredibly miffed off when our society turns out very different with IDS, JRM or Dom Raab at the helm.

[BubblesBuddy]

On 5 May 2011 we were asked if we wanted to change our voting system from FPTP. We didn’t. People didn’t engage so we are stuck with a 2 party system. Stupid electorate again!!!

[TemporaryPermanent]

I'm becoming quite cross at the lack of recognition of the work politicians are putting in to leave. They are half killing themselves to try to get this done, leaving the actual death of Jo Cox out of it since that was before the vote. They are doing everything to get us to leave in some form that doesn't wreck everything, and all they get is 'betrayal' and 'incompetent'. They are trying to do the impossible thing that the country voted by a tiny margin for. No shit it looks a mess, get used to it.

[SparklySneakers]

They've had almost 3 years ffs and keep voting against their party, against the only available deal and saying one thing and doing another

[1tisILeClerc]

{I'm becoming quite cross at the lack of recognition of the work politicians are putting in to leave. They are half killing themselves to try to get this done,}

It would have been appreciated if they seemed knowledgeable about the contents of the WA before voting it down. It was blatantly obvious a couple of months back that they had not examined and understood it.
It was published in November, what is their excuse?
Even Dominic Raab admitted he hadn't read it and he was the Brexit secretary FFS!

[otterturk]

Society shrugged

[Tensixtysix]

Anarchy and riots in the streets. August 2011 all over again, but all over the UK.

[WordsAndWorlds]

I believe the WA will probably be forced through.

As others have said, that's just the start in terms of the donkey work, so there may not seem as huge a difference as leaving with no deal. Allowing leavers to say well, we've left, see everything is fine- we should have left even more markedly.

Beneath the surface, the much bigger picture is the loss of power, decision making weight, protection and trust the UK will have earned itself....Which Could have huge ripples as the political shape of the world continues to change and alliances become more important in fighting enemies you cannot take on alone. But perhaps that was always the intention, to peel the UK off and make them the sacrificial lamb for entry to the West (by their own- engineered? - choosing, no less)....

[bellinisurge]

I think WA will get through but, judging by the posts on my local FB community page, there would be street parties and great joy abounding if we were to crash out. Before the fuckers realise what WTO rules really mean, that is. And then snowflake whining that they aren't responsible for it.
I think WA will get through and then there would be unity over disliking it. And no doubt Remain voters would be held responsible.

[1tisILeClerc]

{As others have said, that's just the start in terms of the donkey work, so there may not seem as huge a difference as leaving with no deal.}

At some point the big manufacturers that use JiT will declare their hand and make a move. That will be a shock to the system.
They will need to do this possibly at the end of this month or even sooner because their shutdowns have been scheduled, workers have been given 'holidays' for a couple of weeks. The companies will need to know if they will start up again, and under what terms. If JiT is messed up, they may only manage 4 day weeks or some other part working. Some have already said there is over capacity anyway, so shutting completely might be an option taken. There was about 500,000 unsold VWs in Europe a while back.

[BubblesBuddy]

Ford are now restructuring. Why any world wide company would stay here is a mystery to me if it’s easier to manufacture, procure parts and market without tarrifs in the EU.

Far too many people didn’t understand that kicking wealth creators is the best way to unemployment.

[xebobfromUS]

I suppose one could come up with really bad scenarios even for a really bad crash out so I will try to go middle of the road.

Similar to the 1973 oil crises, you could probably expect long lines at petrol stations with perhaps strict limits on much petrol you could buy.

Food will probably be available but you may be limited by the store as to how much you could buy. It may well be that the food available is simply not to your liking or fairly unhealthy like tinned peaches drowned in heavy syrup.

If you go to the store to get say milk and bread it may not be available but cereal is. When milk and bread are available cereal may not be.

You may have to engage in Soviet-style shopping buying whatever is available when it's available because it may be sometime before you see it again ( soap, shampoo, nail polish, toothpaste, etc ).

Checking out the oil embargo on Wikipedia I came across this nugget:

" Despite being relatively unaffected by the embargo, the UK nonetheless faced an oil crisis of its own—a series of strikes by coal miners and railroad workers over the winter of 1973–74 became a major factor in the change of government. Heath asked the British to heat only one room in their houses over the winter. The UK, Germany, Italy, Switzerland and Norway banned flying, driving and boating on Sundays. Sweden rationed gasoline and heating oil. The Netherlands imposed prison sentences for those who used more than their ration of electricity. ".

With a further, perhaps rather drastic decline in the pound, petrol, heating oil, electricity, and food will be rationed but perhaps not in the traditional sense but according to availability and especially price.

Most people will probably be okay at first, but when they realize that all of this will be their new life for the foreseeable future with no end in sight, then they will become more and more angry and bitter with a consequent rise in radical parties of both the left and right.

There probably won't be large-scale riots but rather pub brawls and isolated street fights.

Whatever the faults and flaws of the UK in the EU, it will become by comparison a heaven of times past as opposed to the new harsh reality.

Okay, that's my middle of the road scenario which is quite dreadful enough, hopefully the WA gets passed through so the UK can experience some degree of relative normalcy at least for a while.

[TalkinPaece]

I do wish the Leave supporters would admit that the WA is the start of the years and years of negotiation
not the end

[1tisILeClerc]

{I do wish the Leave supporters would admit that the WA is the start of the years and years of negotiation
not the end}

That is a mere detail, leavers have no fucking clue.