May's Withdrawal Agreement

[Puddelchen]

Excuse my ignorance but if May's WA is passed does that mean we avoid the worst of the problems that we would have if it became a No Deal situation?

[1tisILeClerc]

Roughly speaking, yes.
The UK will still leave but initially (30 March) relatively little will change. It heralds the start of a transition period where a lot of details need to be worked out. The initial proposal is that the UK would actually leave 'properly' at the end of 2020 assuming all the fine details have been discussed and agreed. The UK will continue paying into the EU for access to markets and so on but crucially will lose MEPs and any representation in the EU parliament. The UK would have to accept any rule changes but there may not actually be much that is altered anyway.
Everyone apart from Mrs May is unhappy about the WA for various reasons but it has been constructed so that nothing 'dramatic' happens. For the UK to get the best out of the WA it will have to negotiate skillfully, something that appears to be lacking over the last 2 years or more. A kind of amicable divorce. Since the magnitude of the intertwining of the UK and EU is only gradually coming clear the end of 2020 is looking over optimistic but as a catastrophic sudden 'no deal' scenario is avoided on 29 March is FAR preferable.
What happens with various industries will be exceedingly interesting, to put it mildly.

[Puddelchen]

Thank you LeClerc, that is reassuring, the whole thing seems beyond my comprehension. Might the long term outlook be hairy though?

[bellinisurge]

@1tisILeClerc pretty much has it, @Puddelchen .
In my view the best deal is the Remain option but that view didn't win so Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement is the least worst.
No sensible or responsible politician will allow No Deal. I genuinely believe that enough of our MPs on both sides will do whatever is needed to avoid that. It's only headbangers, idiots and disaster capitalists/socialists who want no Deal. Note the prefix "disaster ". Being a capitalist or a socialist does not automatically mean you are a headbanger or an idiot.

[Puddelchen]

Yes, I voted remain and obviously that would be best .

[1tisILeClerc]

While I voted Remain originally, the circumstances have changed drastically since June 2016. A hell of a lot of money has been wasted upsetting both the UK and EU economies and combined with the unwillingness of the UK to work on a reasonable departure agreement I think the WA that Mrs May is waving is largely written by the EU.
It maintains the EU 'pillars' which prevent the collapse of the EU which would be a catastrophe beyond reasonable contemplation.
The basic problem is that most of the woes of the UK are not rooted in the EU but in the UK itself but the 'leave' campaign looked far too enticing rather than EU vanilla.
Neither leaving nor remaining will 'solve' the underlying problems in the UK but a No deal' departure would be near catastrophic, WA will be bad but even remaining now, since so much money and goodwill has been 'spent' will not improve the UK unless the government of the day does a massive U turn and sort out the UK economy and deals with the very significant 'poor' around the country.

[Puddelchen]

Thank you, that was all very informative. Crazy times.