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Westminstenders: A vote too far?

(1000 Posts)
RedToothBrush Mon 10-Dec-18 09:16:13

The ECJ have ruled that the UK can unilaterally revoke A50.

There maybe lots of other news today, but that's the big one.

May has her big vote tomorrow. Or does she.

Will she survive until the end of the week?

RedToothBrush Wed 12-Dec-18 07:38:11

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
BREAK: @skynews confirms that the threshold has been met.

RedToothBrush Wed 12-Dec-18 07:37:29

Ross Kempsall @rosskempsell
Chief whip just left Downing St
(time stamp 7.34am)

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
Having been in there at 10pm last night

RedToothBrush Wed 12-Dec-18 07:35:50

Beth Rigby @bethrigby
Gauke on @skynews defending May. Says confidence vote now would be “an act of huge self indulgence”

RedToothBrush Wed 12-Dec-18 07:35:00

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
Patterson: You can accelerate the process you can put forward two candidates in 7-10 days.... he reckons party could get a new PM in by mid-Jan #today

Simon Hoare Mp @ simon4ndorset
This “timetable “ is utter and total nonsense . A vacuum would be created that couldn’t be filled until late February. This is the last throw of desperate dice by those who’ve never wanted a deal but who are personally insulated from any chill headwinds

Kevin Schofield@polhomeeditor
Theresa May's survival hopes rising every minute Owen Paterson is on the radio. #r4today

Nick Robinson making absolute mincemeat of Owen Paterson on the Today programme. He got an easier time from the badgers. #r4today

RedToothBrush Wed 12-Dec-18 07:22:33

Beth Rigby @bethrigby
Although think Sir Graham goes to PM and tells her first before he tells everyone else. And he doesn’t drop into No 10 at 10pm (when she returned last night)

And observations by political journos.

Patterson is stupid.

Utterly stupid.

It really is going to be a long day isn't it?

RedToothBrush Wed 12-Dec-18 07:18:05

Beth Rigby @bethrigby
Patterson says he handed his letter into Sir Graham Brady personally and he doesn’t think it was the the 48th letter because he thinks Brady would have announced by now #today

God they aren't even aware that Brady said he'd give May some grace!

They are that oblivious to reality.

TokyoSushi Wed 12-Dec-18 07:00:31

I'm awake and checking in. Fascinated and horrified in equal measure about what's going to happen today. I work in an industry where our EU membership, or not really matters so there will be lots of discussion at work today too.

We have our Christmas meal out tonight, but we'll have one eye on the news.

I think it's going to be quite a day folks, but aren't they all at the moment!

RedToothBrush Wed 12-Dec-18 06:52:22

It's very unicorny as not one has managed the publics expectations for 3 years.

RedToothBrush Wed 12-Dec-18 06:49:31

Latest Lord ashcroft poll. On Brexit outcomes.

Priorities are not what you might expect.

RedToothBrush Wed 12-Dec-18 06:46:13

David Schnieder @ davidschnieder
Next Tory leader, latest odds:

The one who lied on a bus 6-1
The one who lied about impact assessments 8-1
The one who lied to Parliament and resigned 10-1
The one who lied and didn’t resign 15-1
The one who destroyed the NHS 20-1
The one who didn’t know we were an island 8-1

RedToothBrush Wed 12-Dec-18 06:44:44

He is a former NI secretary. Who should know better.

RedToothBrush Wed 12-Dec-18 06:42:57

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
Good morning: @OwenPaterson kicks off the day by tweeting out his letter calling for May to go and it’s excoriating.

RedToothBrush Wed 12-Dec-18 06:40:12

Delurking cos I'm a bit baffled, maybe someone can help. I have seen/heard leave supporters (MPs and general public) complain that TM is delaying/sabotaging brexit because she's a remoaner blah blah the usual. From what I can see, she seems hell bent on pushing through with it despite people on all sides trying to stop her?!? how is TM the issue here? She's clearly useless as a leader, but I don't understand how she's intentionally trying to sabotage Brexit ??

TM is the issue for two reasons; the people you speak of, don't want to face up to reality that the UK doesn't have much of a negotiation hand and May tangled herself up in their red lines without first realising that reality, thus she burnt a lot of that good will.

When May realised the reality of the situation she's had to change tact but she's not a pragmatic type, so has a tenancy to ram things down people's throats in an aggressive fashion which gets peoples backs up. I'd argue that given the mess of her red lines and the whole of Westminster living in la la land over Brexit, she possibly had little alternative anyway.

But yes I do believe May is determined to get us out of the EU as that's her duty. She is telling the truth on this. She looks like she has done everything to save her own neck, but I believe she honestly thinks it's the only way to guarantee we get Brexit without a crash out no deal.

It looks like we now get to test this theory though.

bellinisurge Wed 12-Dec-18 06:36:56

@muststoplurking the allegation is she is trying to stop Brexit because, for the first time, not leaving is a bit of an option.
I think, fwiw, she's using the situation to push it so that it's her Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal. No sane MP will push for No Deal.

RedToothBrush Wed 12-Dec-18 06:33:51

Stewart Jackson @ brexitstewart
But of course if there’s a ballot and if she’s re-elected the DUP will pull the plug on the confidence and supply arrangement.... .so it’s Vote May.....and get an early General Election

How much influence will Williamson have...

muststoplurking Wed 12-Dec-18 06:26:02

Delurking cos I'm a bit baffled, maybe someone can help. I have seen/heard leave supporters (MPs and general public) complain that TM is delaying/sabotaging brexit because she's a remoaner blah blah the usual. From what I can see, she seems hell bent on pushing through with it despite people on all sides trying to stop her?!? how is TM the issue here? She's clearly useless as a leader, but I don't understand how she's intentionally trying to sabotage Brexit ??

RedToothBrush Wed 12-Dec-18 06:24:18

It's rare I'm up this early and there are NO political tweeters up.

Looks like news rooms all had a late night and/or are having an early morning briefing.

It's eerie.

LONG day ahead.

Buckle up. Keep your sense of humour and your chin up. This is going to be rough.

RedToothBrush Wed 12-Dec-18 06:12:17

Maybe since RTB is so good at this 'predicting' stuff it is actually her ideas that are being picked up by May and co and they are making the narrative into a reality?

If I thought this was even remotely true I'd predict other things.

Sadly there are just limited options as to what can happen, and the probability of them happening. If you understand the basis reality of the situation its not too hard to work out. The ERG are nothing if not predictable.

Mrsr8 Wed 12-Dec-18 06:01:05

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

usuallydormant Wed 12-Dec-18 05:22:31

I think It's amending the UK union or Brexit, it's not possible to have both. Either NI is tied to RoI economically via the backstop or a crash Brexit forces a reunification poll.
(Btw RoI have to agree too and depending on the economic cost might say no. Ireland is going to be shafted economically by any kind of Brexit and I'm not convinced the additional cost of NI and a load of angry DUPers is going to be an attractive proposition to the Irish electorate.)

A NI only backstop, as per last year's agreement, might be be best way. Yes NI will have different status to rUk (as it has already on many issues) but the union would be there, if a bit wobblier, and rUk wouldn't be quite as beholden to EU. Not as good as remain obviously....

Donnnerbox Wed 12-Dec-18 01:16:25

I'm now just hoping that MPs will accept the crap deal rather than go for the disaster of no deal. Our family is completely F***ed financially if there's a no deal. Obviously, many others will be in a similar position.

SingingBabooshkaBadly Wed 12-Dec-18 01:05:55

These threads are moving so fast I pretty much missed the last one and this one is at page ten before I can even place mark.

Home life has completely taken over and I’ve had to rely far too much on what I can pick up from the radio whilst doing other stuff.

We really are teetering on the brink aren’t we?

Inniu Wed 12-Dec-18 00:46:42

I think most in GB would be delighted to get rid of NI. It is only a previous Union when Tory’s need DUP votes. Handing it over based on the will of the people would be easy. It would be very different to the Scottish Indy ref.

The divorce bill.... now that might be different. 800 years as a stay at home dependent I can only imagine the clean break payment would be substantial.

Peregrina Wed 12-Dec-18 00:36:36

Well, I would love to see what would happen if NI voted to unite with the Republic by 52% to 48%. Would we hear about 'the will of the people' I wonder, or would we have the Westminster Government trying to impose extra conditions, like needing a 2/3 majority? I think it's certainly theoretical at the moment, but I could certainly see it within ten years. This would be regardless of whether the UK stays in the EU or crashes out - I think the political classes have so damaged the reputation of the country that it will cause people to think again.

Inniu Wed 12-Dec-18 00:21:37

That said I don’t think NI would vote for unity and certainly not in time for a March deadline.

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