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Post Brexit forecast... How can we trust what experts say?

(746 Posts)
mummmy2017 Thu 29-Nov-18 18:29:51

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3902630/amp/Why-does-Bank-boss-Mark-Carney-getting-wrong.html

This guy got it wrong last time, how can we trust what he says?

Bearbehind Thu 29-Nov-18 18:54:07

He didn’t get it wrong last time - it’s just Leavers has been conditioned to believe the impact of the result would be felt the day after the referendum.

It doesnt take a genius to work out the serious effects won’t occur until after we’ve left.

Glad you are starting to question things a bit more though mummmy

1tisILeClerc Thu 29-Nov-18 18:59:17

If you look at the way the value and relationships between currencies jump about continually it is very difficult to make a totally reliable prediction.Mrs Mays speech in Salzburg made the exchange rate jump by nearly 1% on the half hour surrounding her speech. Incidents such as the air strikes in Syria and other places also need to be factored in.
In the world of high finance nothing stands still.

smilethoyourheartisbreaking Thu 29-Nov-18 19:01:50

Still waiting for the amazing detailed and expert forecast from the Brexiteers. If they can produce one that an analytical comparison can be made against the BOE then there is a point of discussion

Until then there really isn't

1tisILeClerc Thu 29-Nov-18 19:04:52

Boris wants to build a big bridge from NI to Scotland.
That's the nearest I have seen to a plan.

prettybird Thu 29-Nov-18 19:10:01

I think it was James O'Brian on LBC today (might have been one of his callers/guests) who pointed out that Mark Carney's job is to mitigate and/or avert his own worst predictions confused

So, for example, people forget the actions he took post the Brexit vote of implementing quantitative easing (the modern form of printing money) to smooth the shock and reduce the impact on the economy.

bellinisurge Thu 29-Nov-18 19:26:18

He didn't get it wrong. Do you think you could doa better job? Maybe all those people who bail out when the going gets tough they could do it: Davies, Johnson and Raab?

ShovingLeopard Thu 29-Nov-18 19:28:15

You do realise the Mail is incredibly biased in favour of Brexit, and will therefore spin anything Carney says about risks in favour of that agenda?

MarshaBradyo Thu 29-Nov-18 19:29:08

It’s a worst case scenario not a prediction

Listen to him on R4 today. It’s what he needs to do as part of his job

lonelyplanetmum Thu 29-Nov-18 20:05:54

I thought he was tactful, measured, honest and patient on Radio 4 explaining it's his job to try and plan and prepare for what Parliament choose.

Very honourable of him to have extended his term until the end of January 2020. He must privately think what a crazy act of self harm.

SchnitzelVonKrumm Thu 29-Nov-18 20:20:36

I imagine Carney's memoirs will be, um, entertaining.

Pebblesandfriends Thu 29-Nov-18 20:23:02

It's a worst case scenario, but I see no reason not to trust it. It shouldn't be a shock though, I don't know anyone who seriously thought we'd be better off leaving.

MeganBacon Thu 29-Nov-18 20:43:50

It's all assumptions based and best estimates, as much an art as a science. He never uses definite language even if it is reported that way in the press, he talks of "a range of possible outcomes". It is normally the worst possible outcome reported in headlines but his actual language is probably more measured than that.

1tisILeClerc Thu 29-Nov-18 20:43:58

Even if all these forecasts were 80% wrong, NONE say things are going to be better than we were.

Bearbehind Thu 29-Nov-18 20:45:51

megan can you point us in the direction of a single reoprt which shows how Brexit will benefit us?

Bearbehind Thu 29-Nov-18 20:48:39

I’m really pleased mummmy has started this thread.

She’s been one of the most die hard, at any price, Leavers on here and she’s cleary rattled enough to be questioning this.

It’s starting to sink in.

Let’s hope it’s not too late.

MeganBacon Thu 29-Nov-18 20:54:07

@Bear
I'm pretty sure none of the more credible reports model a positive outcome. The point I was making is that we cannot dismiss what has already happened on the basis that it wasn't the worst possible outcome, because what we have is probably within Carney's range of possible outcomes.

lonelyplanetmum Thu 29-Nov-18 21:33:46

I'd rather trust most specialists with years of experience and knowledge of their sector.

By contrast nearly all of our alleged states persons, are not to be trusted, especially the Leave crew I'm afraid.

Here's my trust ratings:

Johnson (B) 0 out of 10
Rees Mogg 0 out of 10
Gove 0 out of 10
Farage 0 out of 10

I'd give Carney a 10, compared to that shower.

DoctorTwo Thu 29-Nov-18 22:09:57

I see Grease Smug, the man who moved his hedge fund to Ireland to escape the effects of Brexit, has labelled Carnage a 'second rate politician' when in fact he was a Canadian civil servant. Why JRM and his cronies aren't being skewered by the BBC is beyond me. Oh wait, they're the media wing of the Tory party.

Mistigri Thu 29-Nov-18 22:13:36

he talks of "a range of possible outcomes". It is normally the worst possible outcome reported in headlines but his actual language is probably more measured than that.

It is true that newspapers tend to latch onto the most dramatic predictions.

But I don't think that any forecasters have predicted the "worst possible outcome" because that's not how you do forecasting (disclosure: I'm a forecaster).

For any set of assumptions there is a range of possible outcomes, because some things are hard to predict (eg human behaviour) and because how the economy behaves depends on many things other than Brexit that the UK has no control over (eg Trump picking trade fights with China). Forecasters tend to "train" their models so as not to produce extreme outcomes, because most of the time economies change only very slowly. However, sometimes an extreme outcome IS what actually happens. This is why most economists didn't predict the 2007 financial crisis: forecasters don't like going out on a limb because most of the time if you do this you'll be wrong. But that doesn't mean that extreme negative outcomes are impossible.

So, forecasters may well be overestimating how bad the impacts might be - let's hope so - but they may also be underestimating how bad things could be.

Talkinpeece Thu 29-Nov-18 22:28:39

(a) The Daily Mail is now pro remain
(b) Carney has not got it wrong - he has made assessments that are so far coming true
(c) Still waiting for any properly costed assessments of how Brexit will make anything better

ShovingLeopard Thu 29-Nov-18 22:34:50

Spot on Mistigri

I had no idea the Mail was now pro-remain, Talkin. I don't very often read it. What a colossal cheek, given how their relentless blaming of the EU for every ill (whether related to the EU or not) for the past four decades played such a large part in the masses blindly voting for Brexit.

mummmy2017 Fri 30-Nov-18 02:16:59

www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6444811/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-12th-day-Brexit-Theresa-gave-start-World-War-III.html
Sorry Bear... This is more my feelings on it all...

Leonie87 Fri 30-Nov-18 02:36:40

I think I might have a bit of a crush on Mark Carney.

nuttynutjob Fri 30-Nov-18 02:38:55

I trust Mark Carney more than Bojo, Gove, Fox and Rees Mogg

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