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When MPs vote on December 11th-what are the possible outcomes?!

(82 Posts)
Holidayshopping Tue 27-Nov-18 19:34:51

If enough people (more than half) agree the plan, Brexit goes ahead and Theresa May and the conservatives remain in power.

If not enough people vote yes, then what? What actually happens? Does that count as a vote of no confidence in the PM or not? Does Brexit still go ahead anyway?

Apologies if those are stupid questions that have been done to death.

Cuppaqueen Wed 28-Nov-18 18:44:13

A few points in response to @blackcurrantjam

1. I don't think the government can do much to punish Tory MPs who vote against a 3-line whip. Generally the most serious punishment is to withdraw the party whip, which means they'd stay in Parliament as an independent - and reduce Theresa May's majority even further. And she can hardly do that to a quarter of her parliamentary party!

2. The backstop is IN the withdrawal agreement and zero chance of EU caving on that one. They've insisted on it from day 1. So also zero chance of the DUP backing it. Which means May would need backing from Labour rebels to pass the 'deal' anyway (I agree it's not a deal as such).

3. There could easily be a majority for 2nd ref if Labour back it and a handful of Tory MPs support them. Lib Dem's, Green and SNP already broadly in favour. Enough Tory Remainers have said they'd back it (such as Jo Johnson, Anna Soubry) for this to be a plausible scenario. Much more likely than a GE.

4. Regardless of whether BoJo or any of the other Brexiteers somehow become leader, there is still no Parliamentary majority for 'no deal'. Any proposals to that effect would be voted down, especially after the god-awful scenarios just released by the Bank of England. A no confidence motion is a real risk for any new leader in that scenario - leading to a GE. However, I think a leadership election unlikely unless May resigns - and at this point, hard to say if a Brexiteer or Remainer would win one. Brexit is the ultimate poisoned chalice.

Incidentally I think the EU court ruling on whether we can unilaterally rescind Article 50 could also come into play here. If all else fails, rescinding it would allow normality to tick on while we desperately try to figure out what we want (as should have been done in the first place before triggering the bloody thing!)

Just my twopennoth - but I'm still confident we'll get another vote. Politicians know this one is too hot to handle.

Cuppaqueen Wed 28-Nov-18 18:48:12

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the 2nd referendum option can be put to the House as an amendment on the meaningful vote? In which case any of the opposition parties can raise it.

Talkstotrees Wed 28-Nov-18 19:05:13

Thank you Cuppaqueen, very useful and clear brew

Cuppaqueen Wed 28-Nov-18 19:10:16

@Talkstotrees cheers smile

I've spent far too much time reading up on all this so glad to save anyone a few hours of their life by passing on what I've learnt!

Toyboysrus Wed 28-Nov-18 19:20:03

Can I ask a probably very silly question please? Why is the meaningful vote not until the 11th December? Surely that's wasting so much time? Why not a couple of days after the EU agreed the deal? Thanks.

HappyHugs Wed 28-Nov-18 19:29:27

^No deal means in Britain the European Communities Act of 1972 is repealed and the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 applies.^

Not sure who made this point but that’s not my understanding. The withdrawal act is surely what they’re voting on. No deal means no withdrawal act so the 2018 act would not apply. Or am I missing something?

Bluntness100 Wed 28-Nov-18 19:44:05

The Tories need to vote with her, if they don't they need to resign, it's one or the other. She then needs I think about 80 votes to get it through from the rest.

If she doesn't get it through, which is a horrifying thought it can go may ways.

Small defeat she tries again with some minor tweaks, and with the evidence the pound started crashing hard so pressure to vote with her.

Major defeat and she either resigns, unlikely in my view, or there is enough letters of no confidence sent it there is a leadership challenge. Again unlikely as who woild want to take leadership at this time.

I doubt she will call a general election, unless she if forced ie not enough MPs to govern.

She may take it to thr people, a second referendum, as she knows what no deal will do to thr country and it's odds on the public will vote to stay, but sadly there is too many people who will vote to leave without understanding the impacts, and just mimic parliament, so it's risky.

Basically no one knows what will happen if it doesn't get through,let's all hope it does. Because if it doesn't it's not going to be pretty,

Jason118 Wed 28-Nov-18 19:54:55

*No deal means in Britain the European Communities Act of 1972 is repealed and the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 applies.*

Wrong, no deal means Article 50 runs its course with no Withdrawal Agreement and we are suddenly out on our own with no trade deals, etc etc.

jasjas1973 Wed 28-Nov-18 20:05:33

Bluntness100

If her WA goes through, then all it does is kick the can down the road for 20months perhaps a further 2 years or not! then we 'll be faced with all this over again.
There are EU elections next year, a new commission and Mays wish list, new EU negotiators will extract all they can from the UK, we'll have little leverage and once in the backstop, we cannot leave without their say so, its a truly terrible deal.

Vote the WA down and she is forced (via a no-deal amendment vote) to consider better options (i agree she wont resign) Norway + cU perhaps, another vote, even a revocation.

Talkinpeece Wed 28-Nov-18 20:11:27

an analogy for no deal

We are currently on the EU airliner
We have decided to jump out of the plane.
A deal gives us a parachute. Better deal = better parachute = softer landing.
No deal means no parachute
of any sort.

lonelyplanetmum Wed 28-Nov-18 21:27:26

*No deal means in Britain the European Communities Act of 1972 is repealed and the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 applies.*

I made this point ! I was right I think , and those who commented are correct too....

I think you need to distinguish between the provisions of the Act which repeal our EU ratification and and any parts that ratify a withdrawal agreement.

The main objective of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act is to repeal the European Communities Act 1972 (ECA) on the day the we relinquish membership.

The Act converts any EU law on food, agriculture, environment etc as it stands at the moment of exit into domestic law. It preserves agreed laws made in the UK to match EU obligations.

It also creates the Henry VIII powers to make new secondary legislation by ministers without due process.

My understanding Is the withdrawal agreement ( if any) under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union is separate. So even if Parliament doesn't approve the final terms of the withdrawal agreement (as seems likely) then we are into a no deal situation. The parts of the 2018 Act to repeal the 1972 ECA still must be operative on the day of exit surely?

Some provisions would have to come into force otherwise the 1972 Act wouldn't be repealed and domestic law would be saying we are still in the EU and Article 50 would be saying we aren't?

I've confused myself now!

Jason118 Wed 28-Nov-18 21:32:44

Thanks lonely, 2 Withdrawals is enough for anybodysmile

lonelyplanetmum Wed 28-Nov-18 21:34:06

Yes I'm right there's the..
European Union (Withdrawal) Act
"The principal purpose of the Act is to provide a functioning statute book on the day the UK leaves the EU. As a general rule, the same rules and laws will apply on the day after exit as on the day before. It will then be for Parliament and, where appropriate, the devolved legislatures to make any future changes.
11The Act performs four main functions. It:
◦repeals the ECA;
◦converts EU law as it stands at the moment of exit into domestic law before the UK leaves the EU and preserves laws made in the UK to implement EU obligations;
◦creates powers to make secondary legislation, including temporary powers to enable corrections to be made to the laws that would otherwise no longer operate appropriately once the UK has left the EU and to implement a withdrawal agreement (subject to the prior enactment of a statute by Parliament approving the final terms of withdrawal); and
◦removes the existing restrictions on devolved competence in relation to acting incompatibly with EU law so that decision making powers in areas currently governed by EU law will pass to the devolved institutions, except where specified in secondary legislation under this Act."

Then there's the separate Withdrawal Agreement and Implementation Bill will be used to implement in domestic legislation the major elements of the withdrawal agreement between the UK and the EU that will need to be reflected in domestic legislation (see paragraph 30 of the explanatory notes for further detail- http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2018/16/notes/division/4/index.htm).

lonelyplanetmum Wed 28-Nov-18 21:40:11

*2 Withdrawals is enough for anybody*

To be crude, I wish the Fathers of a few politicians I can name had been as keen on the W method as their offspring now are.

Holidayshopping Wed 28-Nov-18 21:50:44

We are currently on the EU airliner. We have decided to jump out of the plane.A deal gives us a parachute. Better deal = better parachute = softer landing.No deal means no parachute of any sort.

I think everyone on the airliner should take a quick vote as to whether they still think the decision to jump out of the plane is a good one grin

Talkinpeece Wed 28-Nov-18 21:57:17

The other people on the airliner are the other EU countries.
They would all much rather we did not jump
But they are a bit hacked off with us marching up and down the aisle ranting and swearing at the cabin crew.
Having us jump will destabilise the plane for a short while but not as much as the lack of a parachute will hurt us.

HappyHugs Wed 28-Nov-18 22:11:00

So if the 1972 Withdrawal Act comes into force we really are in the shit in N. Ireland surely? No backstop and two entirely different systems cutting across people’s very homes.

Theknacktoflying Wed 28-Nov-18 22:21:00

I find the whole thing so incredibly confusing - so much conjecture and if, buts and nothing that can be nailed down.

Dontgiveamonkeys1350 Wed 28-Nov-18 22:31:27

I have been reading. And watching everything I can on the news etc. I am still confused. I have learnt a lot of stuff though. Watching the prime minister talk to everyone and how it works etc. But I still have no idea. But I’m still reading and learning.

Jason118 Wed 28-Nov-18 22:50:14

You only need to watch the prime minister talk to one person - she says the same thing to everyone

Cuppaqueen Thu 29-Nov-18 04:09:42

I'm loving the airplane analogy. The truth is we are better off keeping our (front-row) seat on the plane!

May is very selective with the truth - her letter to the people is riddled with obfuscation and false equivalences. The deal she has may be better than 'no deal' at all but it's way worse than staying in the EU. Having spent 40 years converging our economy with the EU, massively to our economic advantage, there is no easy way to unpick it. There's bound to be damage.

Dontgiveamonkeys1350 Thu 29-Nov-18 06:59:29

Jason118 She does. And it is getting annoying. I understand she has been given a totally impossible job. And I do feel for her. And she has kept her head held high the whole time. But she can’t keepnsaying the same words over and over. She just keeps answering the questions the same. It’s annoying and doesn’t inform people of anything.

Dontgiveamonkeys1350 Thu 29-Nov-18 07:01:17

I would also like politicians to stop acting like a bunch of nine year old. Stop slagging and bitching within themselves and showing themselves up an get on with actually doing something. They are running the country fgs.... grow up and stop acting like a teenager.

Jason118 Thu 29-Nov-18 08:42:20

She made her own job impossible by pandering to her party ERG nutters. If she had demonstrated an ounce of stubbornness toward them, she wouldn't have needed to use so much of it now.

Maryjoyce Thu 29-Nov-18 08:45:27

Leave without a deal is far better anyway then when they can’t sell there rubbish cars too us they’ll want to do a much better deal then and we have the upper hand

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