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When MPs vote on December 11th-what are the possible outcomes?!

(82 Posts)
Holidayshopping Tue 27-Nov-18 19:34:51

If enough people (more than half) agree the plan, Brexit goes ahead and Theresa May and the conservatives remain in power.

If not enough people vote yes, then what? What actually happens? Does that count as a vote of no confidence in the PM or not? Does Brexit still go ahead anyway?

Apologies if those are stupid questions that have been done to death.

GogoGobo Tue 27-Nov-18 20:46:03

I have no idea but would love to know. I have assumed her deal will go through but now I'm starting to think if it doesn't we should have a 2nd vote....

Dontgiveamonkeys1350 Tue 27-Nov-18 20:53:14

But. What if a second vote comes out the same?

Holidayshopping Tue 27-Nov-18 21:03:10

It’s baffling.

I just wonder if TM doesn’t get this vote through on the 11th, what that will actually look like? It’s looks to me (a very uneducated eye) increasingly likely?!

bellinisurge Tue 27-Nov-18 21:18:54

It's not a vote of no confidence. I think there's a possibility there could be a second meaningful vote.
There are intricate procedural possibilities that I don't understand. Just when someone has explained it, it slips away from my attempts to fix it in my brain.

lonelyplanetmum Tue 27-Nov-18 21:20:04

On the webchat today prof Catherine Bernard said..

"The key question is what will happen in respect to the meaningful vote on 11 December in Westminster. At the moment, it looks like the government will lose that vote, although Theresa May is working hard to overcome the opposition to the vote. I f she does lose then the question is whether she resigns (unlikely), is subject to a leadership challenge, or calls for a general election or a second referendum. I think she might wait to see what happens to the pound and, if it sinks, call a second meaningful vote. It is not very likely that the EU will agree to renegotiate what is already a substantial Treaty."

Not sure if that helps!

Holidayshopping Tue 27-Nov-18 21:20:33

I think there's a possibility there could be a second meaningful vote.

What is the difference between a vote and a meaningful vote?

If she doesn’t ‘win’ on the 11th, having another vote a week or two later isn’t going to be any different, is it?

GogoGobo Tue 27-Nov-18 21:50:37

I think if the 2nd vote came out the same then it means that people have voted to leave knowing No Deal is a real possibility whereas when we voted in 2016 No Deal wasn't mentioned! It was all "they need us as much as we need them and of course we will have access to the single market".

Holidayshopping Tue 27-Nov-18 21:51:34

I think if the 2nd vote came out the same then it means that people have voted to leave knowing No Deal is a real possibility whereas when we voted in 2016 No Deal wasn't mentioned!

Do you mean a second referendum?

titchy Tue 27-Nov-18 22:00:32

If Commons don't vote for it then we leave with no deal.

Possibility of deal being amended and new vote goes through at last minute.

Possibility of leadership challenge, and or general election.

Can't see another referendum.

But no one really knows.

homebirds Tue 27-Nov-18 22:00:39

Following this because I don't understand either

Holidayshopping Tue 27-Nov-18 22:18:54

I’m glad it’s not just me blush!

I don’t really properly understand what a No Deal Brexit is either?

jasjas1973 Tue 27-Nov-18 22:23:33

Depends on the scale of any defeat, 10 votes and she'll ask commons to have another vote, 100 plus votes and she'll have to think again, if the defeat was in the 100s, normally, she d be humiliated and resign, though she is hardly normal!

MPs don't want a no deal and would raise an amendment to that effect, Government would normally follow parliaments decision, so a GE, another referendum, seek to renegotiate the treaty or revoke article 50.
In all options, they'd need to ask the EU for an extension to art50.

As to exactly what the Government would do, we don't know, then again with her deal, after 20months to 4years, we are back to where we are now, if they cannot get agreement, well, actually worse, because then we fall into the backstop and could stay there unable to leave unless the EU says so!!

Havanananana Tue 27-Nov-18 22:26:19

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/23/what-happens-next-if-theresa-mays-brexit-deal-is-voted-down

bellinisurge Wed 28-Nov-18 06:24:58

I don't mean a second referendum, I mean a second meaningful vote.
I personally don't want a second referendum for fear that No Deal would be an option and people are just foolish enough to vote for it.
At this stage, I think MPs should be doing what it takes to avoid No Deal. If that means approving a Shit Withdrawal Agreement, so be it.

lonelyplanetmum Wed 28-Nov-18 06:59:05

I don’t fully understand what a no deal Brexit is either

I think lots of people don’t fully understand this. It's very hard to think all the aspects through.

There are definitely some people who think that ‘ no deal’ is a way of making everything go away. Nothing could be further from the truth.

No deal is the most Brexity of Brexits.

No deal means the withdrawal agreement doesn’t apply- but that we still withdraw from the EU and all our piggy back agreements completely.

No deal means on March 29th, Britain’s withdrawal from the EU under Article 50 will become law.

No deal means in Britain the European Communities Act of 1972 is repealed and the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 applies.

No deal means that in three months time all the free trade agreements with over 70 countries no longer apply to the U.K.

No deal means the U.K. will fall back onto tariffs set by the World Trade Organization.

No deal means British consumers would face higher prices for many goods and services.

No deal means more than tariffs as many legal obligations, insurances, safety mechanisms etc lapse immediately, putting at risk air travel, electricity interconnections,financial services.

No deal means the status of EU citizens in Britain and millions of British citizens in the EU is in doubt.

No deal means that if there’s only two minutes more transit time per lorry at Dover and the Channel Tunnel that translates into a 47km traffic jam. (The government has contingency plans for turning a 20km stretch of the M20, into a park)

No deal means the supermarket maximum one-and-a-half days’ fresh food in their supply chain leads to shortages.The government takes control ( we wanted that) and distributes food with inevitable rationing.

No deal means supply of medical supplies is disrupted. The British Pharmaceutical Industry, says the industry has been on notice to accelerate its preparation for no deal. Stocks of medicines have been increased with a 16-week cushion for some supplies. In October MPs were told there were simply not enough cold warehouses to ensure supplies of drugs that need a constant temperature from manufacture to injections. Drug companies working with the government were prevented from talking about the planning needed by strict gagging clauses. The Nuffield Trust estimated that no deal would cost the nhs an additional £2.3bn by 2020.

No deal means the City is in chaos ,financial passporting ends and London’s role as Europe’s biggest centre for trading and clearing is in crisis.

No deal means the pound falls further, inflation, interest rate rises

I could go on but this article explains it better.

No deal is shit yet on some surveys 30% of people want it.

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2018/11/24/what-to-expect-from-a-no-deal-brexit

bellinisurge Wed 28-Nov-18 07:27:36

I'm a prepper and, contrary to popular misconception, I don't want the shit to hit the fan. No deal would do this. I wish people would take it seriously and stop trotting out childish "Project Fear " memes and slogans.
People need to be grown ups about this.

Talkinpeece Wed 28-Nov-18 12:40:40

The debate is due to last five days in advance of the vote.
The tabloids and the TV news will be in palpitations the whole time.

I have absolutely no idea how the vote will go because I have long ago ceased understanding what is driving our elected reprsentatives

I don’t fully understand what a no deal Brexit is either
It means no deals at all of any kind with anybody.
Every deal with everybody in the world that we are part of has been done through the EU
and they will all cease to exist at 11pm on march 29th 2019
unless we have a deal with the EU
to allow all the other deals to roll over to be sorted out

We currently have a seat on the plane
A deal would give us a parachute when we jump out
No deal = No parachute

lettuceWrap Wed 28-Nov-18 13:08:48

I spent time with my brexiteer family this week- farming folk, very rural. They have absolutely NO understanding of how Brexit (deal or no deal) is going to affect their industry. I was really shocked. They are under the illusion that British people will continue to buy British produced meat and produce (and European ones produced to high welfare standards), if our markets are opened up to cheap, low quality American imports produced using methods that are currently illegal across the EU sad

Cuppaqueen Wed 28-Nov-18 13:36:58

My understanding is that if she loses the meaningful vote in Parliament, no one knows for certain what will happen next.

If she loses, it isn't an automatic vote of no confidence (due to Fixed Term Parliaments Act). If she loses by a small margin, she could try to win some small concessions from the EU and then try again - 2nd vote in Parliament. But if she loses by a landslide (50-100 votes +) then it's hard to see what her next move is. Under the motion agreed in Parliament that gave MPs a meaningful vote, she has 21 days to review the Government's position and come back with something else. This could be another type of Brexit eg Norway option being bruited about - BUT no certainty she'd get support for any of them, and would still require EU agreeing extension of Article 50 to renegotiate.

She could resign but a change of leader wouldn't really solve anything. No chance of the Tory turkeys voting for Xmas via another general election.

Which is why I am quietly hopeful (and have been for some time) that a people's vote is the only way out of this mess. Interestingly, John McDonnell came out today saying something like if there was a referendum it should be May's deal or no Brexit... I know which one I'd vote for!

MeganBacon Wed 28-Nov-18 14:42:56

Normally if you lose the first vote you'd try to make changes before putting it to a second vote. Not sure how meaningful those changes would have to be, but EU unlikely to agree to anything more than minor tweaks. But there are so many hand grenades which can be thrown into this mix that anything could happen: initial ruling on whether we an withdraw A50 unilaterally, building support for norway option, markets may tank after first vote, not to mention any EU leaks or Trump's proclamations or stories about the tactics used by the whips, or a vote of no confidence. It's going to be an awful few weeks but I am glad it's not sorted because the PV is still a possibility.

blackcurrantjam Wed 28-Nov-18 14:47:38

I think the whip will require all the conservative MPs to vote with the government. If an MP defies a whip, the consequences can be serious - particularly a three line whip, so I think more MPs will vote with the 'deal' (which isn't really a deal yet) in the end. But MPs do defy the whip so I couldn't say for sure.

The DUP are the ones that could put the spanner in the works as they can reassess their confidence and supply deal, which Arlene Foster has said she will do.

The 'deal' is not really a deal, it is a document putting preferences in for the deal. The withdrawal agreement is the 500 page doc that is a legal document. It basically makes it a smooth exit and buys both of us (EU and UK) time to make another 500odd page doc outlining the actual deal - end point 2020 I think. If no deal is reached in that time, then we enter the dreaded backstop which is what everyone hates - nobody, including the EU, wants to enter the backstop as that is just dragging things on and has some economic consequences for NI, as well as this border issue, although I think that is a bit of a red herring.

I cant remember if Arlene Foster (DUP) hates the withdrawal agreement and the backstop, or just the backstop. If there was some way of separating the two, perhaps she would be happier, I can't remember.

It is a good story to say it won't get through parliament but the whips will have other ideas, unless MPs are given a free vote, which I cannot imagine they will be. But I don't actually know that at the mo.

If it doesn't go through, Theresa may go back to the EU and negotiate again, and perhaps get the things that are rubbish sorted, although I wish she would do that now - although the EU aren't playing that game at this stage I don't think. Saying that, they could be talking behind closed doors. Perhaps she will say, look I can get the withdrawal agreement through, but not the backstop - which is the 'safety net' (which people def don't like) in the event of no deal then being arranged.

I cannot say for sure obviously, but I highly doubt the occurrence of a 2nd ref or a GE (there won't be the majority for either, the Tories won't put the option of a 2nd ref through the house, not a chance as I see it, and there is no other way to get one, and after last time there is no way May will call a GE lol) - if anything, it'll be a leadership challenge - it which case I think there is 14 days where the Conservatives have to get behind the new Leader which the party, and the DUP, then have to vote for - there has to be a majority backing the new leader/govt/cabinet. Then perhaps, if it was someone like Boris who is a bit kamikaze, we would go out on WTO without a transition arrangement/withdrawal agreement, which we would have under Theresa May, ...but then we would have to negotiate a deal anyway.

We cannot negotiate a deal until we are out, after March, it is not legally possible, so we have to come out first, and then sort the deal. The difference is that with Theresa May's 'deal' (although it is not a deal as such), we will have a transition period so that we don't have full on WTO rules - basically starting again, where there would be more chaos I would think.

Anyway, either way we leave, it is just how we leave. And Labour, and others, mucking about and saying we want a GE or a 2nd ref is just sabotaging the process and making it worse imo, not to mention getting people's hopes up perhaps, not to mention them standing on a manifesto saying they would act on the referendum. But its a good story lol and gets them on telly perhaps. Anyway, we leave in March, and ideally, we need a transition period of time, which Theresa May has managed to get legally agreed, if we vote it through. I think actually you will get more MPs voting it through than the media are saying - wouldn't make a good story though would it, across all the parties, as coming straight out on WTO is a total ballache. Doable, but more of a ballache that having time to then negotiate an actual deal.

Talkinpeece Wed 28-Nov-18 15:02:23

If an MP defies a whip, the consequences can be serious - particularly a three line whip
Tell that to Jeremy Corbyn.
He voted against his own government hundreds of times including 3 line whips

FusionChefGeoff Wed 28-Nov-18 15:10:39

What's a 3 line whip?

blackcurrantjam Wed 28-Nov-18 15:47:17

yes that is true Talkinpeece - I think it maybe depends on the 'management' of the party as to what happens to them... perhaps it was because he was a known rebel as it were... some MPs have been known to get ousted from the party for defying a three line whip

fusionchefgeoff it is a vote that is 'underlined three times' - so put as utmost importance that mps vote the way the govt want them to vote.. as opposed to one and two line whips, which are less important as it were

Cuppaqueen Wed 28-Nov-18 18:44:13

A few points in response to @blackcurrantjam

1. I don't think the government can do much to punish Tory MPs who vote against a 3-line whip. Generally the most serious punishment is to withdraw the party whip, which means they'd stay in Parliament as an independent - and reduce Theresa May's majority even further. And she can hardly do that to a quarter of her parliamentary party!

2. The backstop is IN the withdrawal agreement and zero chance of EU caving on that one. They've insisted on it from day 1. So also zero chance of the DUP backing it. Which means May would need backing from Labour rebels to pass the 'deal' anyway (I agree it's not a deal as such).

3. There could easily be a majority for 2nd ref if Labour back it and a handful of Tory MPs support them. Lib Dem's, Green and SNP already broadly in favour. Enough Tory Remainers have said they'd back it (such as Jo Johnson, Anna Soubry) for this to be a plausible scenario. Much more likely than a GE.

4. Regardless of whether BoJo or any of the other Brexiteers somehow become leader, there is still no Parliamentary majority for 'no deal'. Any proposals to that effect would be voted down, especially after the god-awful scenarios just released by the Bank of England. A no confidence motion is a real risk for any new leader in that scenario - leading to a GE. However, I think a leadership election unlikely unless May resigns - and at this point, hard to say if a Brexiteer or Remainer would win one. Brexit is the ultimate poisoned chalice.

Incidentally I think the EU court ruling on whether we can unilaterally rescind Article 50 could also come into play here. If all else fails, rescinding it would allow normality to tick on while we desperately try to figure out what we want (as should have been done in the first place before triggering the bloody thing!)

Just my twopennoth - but I'm still confident we'll get another vote. Politicians know this one is too hot to handle.

Cuppaqueen Wed 28-Nov-18 18:48:12

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the 2nd referendum option can be put to the House as an amendment on the meaningful vote? In which case any of the opposition parties can raise it.

Talkstotrees Wed 28-Nov-18 19:05:13

Thank you Cuppaqueen, very useful and clear brew

Cuppaqueen Wed 28-Nov-18 19:10:16

@Talkstotrees cheers smile

I've spent far too much time reading up on all this so glad to save anyone a few hours of their life by passing on what I've learnt!

Toyboysrus Wed 28-Nov-18 19:20:03

Can I ask a probably very silly question please? Why is the meaningful vote not until the 11th December? Surely that's wasting so much time? Why not a couple of days after the EU agreed the deal? Thanks.

HappyHugs Wed 28-Nov-18 19:29:27

^No deal means in Britain the European Communities Act of 1972 is repealed and the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 applies.^

Not sure who made this point but that’s not my understanding. The withdrawal act is surely what they’re voting on. No deal means no withdrawal act so the 2018 act would not apply. Or am I missing something?

Bluntness100 Wed 28-Nov-18 19:44:05

The Tories need to vote with her, if they don't they need to resign, it's one or the other. She then needs I think about 80 votes to get it through from the rest.

If she doesn't get it through, which is a horrifying thought it can go may ways.

Small defeat she tries again with some minor tweaks, and with the evidence the pound started crashing hard so pressure to vote with her.

Major defeat and she either resigns, unlikely in my view, or there is enough letters of no confidence sent it there is a leadership challenge. Again unlikely as who woild want to take leadership at this time.

I doubt she will call a general election, unless she if forced ie not enough MPs to govern.

She may take it to thr people, a second referendum, as she knows what no deal will do to thr country and it's odds on the public will vote to stay, but sadly there is too many people who will vote to leave without understanding the impacts, and just mimic parliament, so it's risky.

Basically no one knows what will happen if it doesn't get through,let's all hope it does. Because if it doesn't it's not going to be pretty,

Jason118 Wed 28-Nov-18 19:54:55

*No deal means in Britain the European Communities Act of 1972 is repealed and the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 applies.*

Wrong, no deal means Article 50 runs its course with no Withdrawal Agreement and we are suddenly out on our own with no trade deals, etc etc.

jasjas1973 Wed 28-Nov-18 20:05:33

Bluntness100

If her WA goes through, then all it does is kick the can down the road for 20months perhaps a further 2 years or not! then we 'll be faced with all this over again.
There are EU elections next year, a new commission and Mays wish list, new EU negotiators will extract all they can from the UK, we'll have little leverage and once in the backstop, we cannot leave without their say so, its a truly terrible deal.

Vote the WA down and she is forced (via a no-deal amendment vote) to consider better options (i agree she wont resign) Norway + cU perhaps, another vote, even a revocation.

Talkinpeece Wed 28-Nov-18 20:11:27

an analogy for no deal

We are currently on the EU airliner
We have decided to jump out of the plane.
A deal gives us a parachute. Better deal = better parachute = softer landing.
No deal means no parachute
of any sort.

lonelyplanetmum Wed 28-Nov-18 21:27:26

*No deal means in Britain the European Communities Act of 1972 is repealed and the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 applies.*

I made this point ! I was right I think , and those who commented are correct too....

I think you need to distinguish between the provisions of the Act which repeal our EU ratification and and any parts that ratify a withdrawal agreement.

The main objective of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act is to repeal the European Communities Act 1972 (ECA) on the day the we relinquish membership.

The Act converts any EU law on food, agriculture, environment etc as it stands at the moment of exit into domestic law. It preserves agreed laws made in the UK to match EU obligations.

It also creates the Henry VIII powers to make new secondary legislation by ministers without due process.

My understanding Is the withdrawal agreement ( if any) under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union is separate. So even if Parliament doesn't approve the final terms of the withdrawal agreement (as seems likely) then we are into a no deal situation. The parts of the 2018 Act to repeal the 1972 ECA still must be operative on the day of exit surely?

Some provisions would have to come into force otherwise the 1972 Act wouldn't be repealed and domestic law would be saying we are still in the EU and Article 50 would be saying we aren't?

I've confused myself now!

Jason118 Wed 28-Nov-18 21:32:44

Thanks lonely, 2 Withdrawals is enough for anybodysmile

lonelyplanetmum Wed 28-Nov-18 21:34:06

Yes I'm right there's the..
European Union (Withdrawal) Act
"The principal purpose of the Act is to provide a functioning statute book on the day the UK leaves the EU. As a general rule, the same rules and laws will apply on the day after exit as on the day before. It will then be for Parliament and, where appropriate, the devolved legislatures to make any future changes.
11The Act performs four main functions. It:
◦repeals the ECA;
◦converts EU law as it stands at the moment of exit into domestic law before the UK leaves the EU and preserves laws made in the UK to implement EU obligations;
◦creates powers to make secondary legislation, including temporary powers to enable corrections to be made to the laws that would otherwise no longer operate appropriately once the UK has left the EU and to implement a withdrawal agreement (subject to the prior enactment of a statute by Parliament approving the final terms of withdrawal); and
◦removes the existing restrictions on devolved competence in relation to acting incompatibly with EU law so that decision making powers in areas currently governed by EU law will pass to the devolved institutions, except where specified in secondary legislation under this Act."

Then there's the separate Withdrawal Agreement and Implementation Bill will be used to implement in domestic legislation the major elements of the withdrawal agreement between the UK and the EU that will need to be reflected in domestic legislation (see paragraph 30 of the explanatory notes for further detail- http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2018/16/notes/division/4/index.htm).

lonelyplanetmum Wed 28-Nov-18 21:40:11

*2 Withdrawals is enough for anybody*

To be crude, I wish the Fathers of a few politicians I can name had been as keen on the W method as their offspring now are.

Holidayshopping Wed 28-Nov-18 21:50:44

We are currently on the EU airliner. We have decided to jump out of the plane.A deal gives us a parachute. Better deal = better parachute = softer landing.No deal means no parachute of any sort.

I think everyone on the airliner should take a quick vote as to whether they still think the decision to jump out of the plane is a good one grin

Talkinpeece Wed 28-Nov-18 21:57:17

The other people on the airliner are the other EU countries.
They would all much rather we did not jump
But they are a bit hacked off with us marching up and down the aisle ranting and swearing at the cabin crew.
Having us jump will destabilise the plane for a short while but not as much as the lack of a parachute will hurt us.

HappyHugs Wed 28-Nov-18 22:11:00

So if the 1972 Withdrawal Act comes into force we really are in the shit in N. Ireland surely? No backstop and two entirely different systems cutting across people’s very homes.

Theknacktoflying Wed 28-Nov-18 22:21:00

I find the whole thing so incredibly confusing - so much conjecture and if, buts and nothing that can be nailed down.

Dontgiveamonkeys1350 Wed 28-Nov-18 22:31:27

I have been reading. And watching everything I can on the news etc. I am still confused. I have learnt a lot of stuff though. Watching the prime minister talk to everyone and how it works etc. But I still have no idea. But I’m still reading and learning.

Jason118 Wed 28-Nov-18 22:50:14

You only need to watch the prime minister talk to one person - she says the same thing to everyone

Cuppaqueen Thu 29-Nov-18 04:09:42

I'm loving the airplane analogy. The truth is we are better off keeping our (front-row) seat on the plane!

May is very selective with the truth - her letter to the people is riddled with obfuscation and false equivalences. The deal she has may be better than 'no deal' at all but it's way worse than staying in the EU. Having spent 40 years converging our economy with the EU, massively to our economic advantage, there is no easy way to unpick it. There's bound to be damage.

Dontgiveamonkeys1350 Thu 29-Nov-18 06:59:29

Jason118 She does. And it is getting annoying. I understand she has been given a totally impossible job. And I do feel for her. And she has kept her head held high the whole time. But she can’t keepnsaying the same words over and over. She just keeps answering the questions the same. It’s annoying and doesn’t inform people of anything.

Dontgiveamonkeys1350 Thu 29-Nov-18 07:01:17

I would also like politicians to stop acting like a bunch of nine year old. Stop slagging and bitching within themselves and showing themselves up an get on with actually doing something. They are running the country fgs.... grow up and stop acting like a teenager.

Jason118 Thu 29-Nov-18 08:42:20

She made her own job impossible by pandering to her party ERG nutters. If she had demonstrated an ounce of stubbornness toward them, she wouldn't have needed to use so much of it now.

Maryjoyce Thu 29-Nov-18 08:45:27

Leave without a deal is far better anyway then when they can’t sell there rubbish cars too us they’ll want to do a much better deal then and we have the upper hand

Maryjoyce Thu 29-Nov-18 08:46:25

The only reason the eec finally agreed something was they realise this too

Talkstotrees Thu 29-Nov-18 08:59:23

Thanks for the insight Maryjoyce hmm

LaurieFairyCake Thu 29-Nov-18 09:09:38

She will call a general election and will cement her position, increase her majority and Brexit WILL happen

We're all fucking doomed.

Unescorted Thu 29-Nov-18 09:10:09

Our MP has been sending out regular surveys to her constituents via face book and regular public meetings so she can accurately judge what her constituents want. As we have gone from 49.8% remain to 57% remain she is taking the view that she will vote against the WA and campaign for a second ref. Looking at the feedback on her Facebook site she is well supported in this approach by people on both sides.

Interestingly by engaging with her constituents she has cultivated a discussion rather than a slanging match between people with opposing views. I would encourage you to get your MP to follow suit.

jasjas1973 Thu 29-Nov-18 09:14:16

Maryjoyce

That strategy has worked soooo well.

We ve agreed to a deal that gives them all the advantages and us none, so obviously we are as good at negotiating as choosing to buy rubbish cars.

1tisILeClerc Thu 29-Nov-18 09:28:48

{Leave without a deal is far better anyway then when they can’t sell there rubbish cars too us they’ll want to do a much better deal then and we have the upper hand}

You realise of course that the UK hardly makes any of it's 'own' cars?
The vast majority of 'car makers' in the UK are car ASSEMBLERS for foreign owned companys.
Simply closing all UK plants would be one way to save them money as there is a bit of an oversupply at the moment.

Talkstotrees Thu 29-Nov-18 09:52:20

@Unescorted - thanks for that. Would you mind sharing the name of your MP? I am meeting with mine on Monday and it would be great to provide him with a case study in rift healing! Our constituency is still hugely divided sad

bellinisurge Thu 29-Nov-18 10:24:38

What rubbish cars are those, @Maryjoyce .
By the way, I'm English we say "their rubbish cars" not "there rubbish cars". Need to ask your bot supervisor to tweak your device.

Yaralie Thu 29-Nov-18 11:06:54

Another tweak needed to teach Maryjoyce when to use "to" not "too"

As for "rubbish cars" - if we are subjected to a no-deal brexit none of us will be able to afford a car.

blackcurrantjam Thu 29-Nov-18 11:13:25

@cuppaqueen
1. Indeed. So do Tory MPs really want to go independent over this?!

2. Nobody wants the backstop, least of all the EU, so everyone will be working hard to secure a deal after March and before the end of 2020. EU won't have any access to our fishing waters if we go into backstop, for example, so highly unlikely. Agree DUP a problem if the WA and backstop cannot be separated.

3.I don't believe they'll be a majority for another EU ref given the amount of people who voted in the ref, and the amount of people who voted Leave, and the fact that MPs voted something like 6 to 1 to hold it in the first place and the debates went on for ages. It seems to me implausible and would make a mockery of everything, surely. But this is just my opinion - lots of this thread is simply that, opinion.

4. I'm not sure it matters that there's no parliamentary majority for no deal. Art 50 already triggered... by parliament - Gina Miller?? EU surely under no obligation to carry on partnership after March. It'll be interesting to see if EU say we can unilaterally rescind Art 50 after this whole thing has cost millions. EU countries will be pretty hacked off at that.

1tisILeClerc Thu 29-Nov-18 11:24:22

Maryjoyce is looking forward to the reintroduction of the Austin Allegro.

Talkinpeece Thu 29-Nov-18 11:25:39

Don't diss the Allegro. I had two. My mate Jon had the one with the square steering wheel. The Maestro was its worthy successor. grin

1tisILeClerc Thu 29-Nov-18 11:32:07

Had they moved to unleaded petrol at that stage?

LouiseCollins28 Thu 29-Nov-18 11:41:20

I have prepared a letter to my MP ahead of 11th December. Thought the MN Brexit thread posters might be interested to see what I have written.

Dear MP Name
I am writing to you regarding the forthcoming debate and voting in parliament on the Government’s withdrawal agreement negotiated with the European Union.

Following the publication the Labour Party manifesto for the General Election in 2017 I was pleased to learn that “Labour accepts the referendum result and a Labour government will put the national interest first.” I am also pleased to confirm that I voted for you to be my MP largely based on this commitment.

Clearly, at that time, the party had also to be true to its values and offer something different from Brexit than the Conservative party, as indeed it did. However, at the said election, a Labour government was not returned.

Nonetheless, a commitment that the party “accepts the referendum result” is one I think it remains reasonable to hold the Labour party to nationally, and to hold you to personally as my MP.

I hope you will take any opportunity afforded to you to be present, speak in the debate if possible and vote positively so that the electors of Constituency Name will have a public record of your vote on this crucial agreement.

The situation is now different than it was in 2017. Then, it was entirely proper to offer competing visions of Brexit while committing to “accept the referendum result”. Now, as we begin December 2018 and with the vote 10 days away, a withdrawal agreement deal has been made between the Government and the EU-27. For myself, I am firmly of the view that “a” deal is better than “no deal”; I am equally firmly of the view that “this deal” is better by far than a “no deal” Brexit next March.

I urge you to vote in favour of the withdrawal agreement so that the Labour party’s 2017 commitment can be honoured and an orderly withdrawal from the EU can begin next year. More than this though, I urge you to consider the views of all your constituents, to speak, and to vote positively so your stance on this agreement will be a matter of record that you can be held to at a future election.

Talkinpeece Thu 29-Nov-18 11:43:10

My MP is anti Brexit
he is threatened with deselection by Momentum.

Corbyn wants a hard Brexit - he has always hated the EU

Brexit is bad for the UK

jasjas1973 Thu 29-Nov-18 12:06:47

Momentum is anti brexit and pro 2nd vote!

Corbyn repeatedly says he wants a SM/ CU deal with EU and has no issue with FOM.... so softest of brexits!

Mays deal gives us potential anything inc a hard brexit, stuck in a CU with the EU that we can never ever leave!

Talkinpeece Thu 29-Nov-18 12:08:44

Corbyn repeatedly says he wants a SM/ CU deal with EU and has no issue with FOM.... so softest of brexits!
Bollocks.
He wants to be able to nationalise industries and bring in state control
that CANNOT be done inside the SM
He called for A50 to be invoked the day after the referendum

look at his voting record over the last 30 years

jasjas1973 Thu 29-Nov-18 12:21:52

No need to be rude is there?

Being in the SM doesn't stop a Gov nationalizing an industry or owning shares in private companies.

Corbyn is anti EU as you correctly sight his voting record, however in the here and now, he supports staying in the SM and the CU, he and his parties policy is to support a 2nd vote, if there is no prospect of a GE, that is factual & not bollox!

jasjas1973 Thu 29-Nov-18 12:22:51

a customs union

Talkinpeece Thu 29-Nov-18 12:44:47

Being in the SM doesn't stop a Gov nationalizing an industry or owning shares in private companies
But it does prevent government support of industry - which is what Coryn and Macdonnell want to do.

believers do not let facts get in the way of faith
belief that Brexit is a panacea

1tisILeClerc Thu 29-Nov-18 12:56:48

Before we get too far into the idea of 'nationalising industry', maybe we should reflect on what industries are actually 'UK'.
Practically all car manufacture is foreign owned. as is water, electricity, transport, gas?, I expect many others but can't think now.
Principally the Tories have sold them all off so before they could be 'nationalised' they would have to be bought back.

Talkinpeece Thu 29-Nov-18 13:19:50

LeClerc
THe plan (before he actually could be held to his word) was
- to allow all rail franchises to lapse and then nationalise the railways (actually that one is a real vote winner)
- to nationalise all utility companies
- to cancel all PFI contracts
- to choose to subsidise certain industries like steel
- to bring in more of a controlled industrial economy (Allegros all round)

1tisILeClerc Thu 29-Nov-18 13:25:51

Thank you, and we think voting for unicorns is crazy!
I suppose once you are completely submerged in shit it hardly matters if it is 1 foot or 100 feet above you.
I suppose he could get a big loan from China or the IMF or Wonga to achieve it, but all lose the 'sovereignty' feel.

jasjas1973 Thu 29-Nov-18 14:03:46

But it does prevent government support of industry - which is what Coryn and Macdonnell want to do

Thats not what you first said.

Cuppaqueen Fri 30-Nov-18 10:33:43

Thanks for responding @blackcurrantjam - it's an interesting debate!

Re the whip, the point I was trying to make is it won't be an effective deterrent to MPs voting against the withdrawal agreement because there's too many rebels for May to punish without shooting down her own majority. That's why many MPs no doubt feel they can vote against and get away with it (and to be fair, probably feel more strongly about this issue than many other parliamentary debates).

I suspect the EU is quite happy with the backstop. It would keep the UK in an effective customs union indefinitely (so much for all those free trade deals) and, more importantly, the British government's fear of it happening gives the EU an upper hand in negotiating the actual future deal. Although I do think the backstop will be hard to avoid. Trade deals are rarely closed in two years, especially when one side, the U.K., still doesn't really know what it wants.

You could be right about whether enough MPs will support a 2nd ref - time will tell! But they have few other options to prevent a default 'no deal' which most sensible ones are horrified by. Being able to withdraw Art 50 might be a get-out clause depending on the EU ruling on the 4th. I think it's probably cost the U.K. a hell of a lot more money so far than it has them.

As to making a mockery of the whole thing, surely this withdrawal agreement and pie-in-the-sky 'deal' is the ultimate mockery of voters, giving neither Leavers nor Remainers what they wanted. I don't see how it's undemocratic to say to people, forget the promises, this is what you'd actually be getting, do you definitely want this?!?

Cuppaqueen Fri 30-Nov-18 10:47:43

@LouiseCollins28 Thanks for sharing your letter.

Personally, I think Labour committed to two conflicting things here: 'Labour accepts the referendum result and a Labour government will put the national interest first.'

The 'deal' May has done is demonstrably NOT in the national interest. It will hamper our economy, with all the negative consequences for jobs and services, leave us as rule-takers not rule-makers for a currently unlimited period of time, and curtail opportunities for millions of Britons.

At the moment Labour policy is to fight for an alternative vision of Brexit, inside the SM and CU. Personally I think that's also daft when we'd be better off staying in, but it's possible to argue that it is still respecting the result.

(Although I fail to see why accepting the referendum result precludes asking a follow-up now the terms of the real 'deal' are on offer. It's hardly a re-run when the question is different and, crucially, much of the bullshit is removed.)

A bad 'deal', which May's is, may be better than no deal (she's changed her tune though!) but both are demonstrably worse than no Brexit. No Brexit is the best way of meeting the other half of Labour's promise!

LouiseCollins28 Fri 30-Nov-18 11:11:16

@cuppaqueen. thanks for kind words, and your response. I partly agree with you that the Labour party committed itself to different things in 2017.

If, as you suggest, No Brexit is the best way of "putting the national interest first" then why, I wonder, did the Labour party commit to anything else in 2017?

If "No brexit" is the optimum outcome, how does that meet the "respecting the result" bit?

Cuppaqueen Fri 30-Nov-18 13:04:59

@LouiseCollins28 Well, I think Labour was partly making a political choice in 2017 because large numbers of voters in some Labour seats voted Leave. And of course Corbyn is pretty anti-EU. Plus they probably didn't realise themselves how difficult it would be to make a success of Brexit!

As to how 'no Brexit' is respecting the result, it isn't - unless there is a follow-up referendum, which is why I personally support one. Failing that, Labour could make a case for a very soft Brexit inside SM and CU if they ditch Theresa May's red lines around free movement. However, to do that, they first have to defeat the withdrawal agreement.

Yaralie Sun 02-Dec-18 20:17:27

THe Labour Party made the wrong call, possibly because JC has always been a closet brexiter. The fact is that most Labour Ms, most LP members and most LP voters voted REMAIN.

derxa Mon 03-Dec-18 12:13:43

I spent time with my brexiteer family this week- farming folk, very rural. They have absolutely NO understanding of how Brexit (deal or no deal) is going to affect their industry. Pull the other one

lettuceWrap Tue 04-Dec-18 17:27:42

No joke.
Admittedly alcohol had been consumed but there were many “It’s not going to affect us, we’ll just keep doing what we’ve always done, we were fine before the EU and we’ll be fine after it” comments.

derxa Tue 04-Dec-18 17:34:29

That's just bravado and I feel a bit like that myself. It's a lot better than whining in my book. We farming folk have been bombarded with info from NFU etc. To say they know nothing about it is rubbish.

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