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Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

(972 Posts)
RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 11:43:49

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

bellinisurge Fri 23-Nov-18 13:21:07

brewwinegincaketardis

1tisILeClerc Fri 23-Nov-18 13:47:10

Bellini
Looks like your Friday night is sorted!

RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 13:49:04

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Big: Theresa May refuses to rule out resigning as PM three times if her Brexit deal falls in the Commons: To @Emmabarnett: "This is not about me". New message to Tory MPs - my deal, or party chaos if I go.

BigChocFrenzy Fri 23-Nov-18 13:51:07

Thanks, red 💐

^This WA was the only way to reconcile May's red lines - especially ending FOM and avoiding a hard NI border - and those of the EU

To get a better deal, the UK would have to drop some of its red lines
but there is no time before Brexit - that renegotiation could happen, if the UK govt wishes, in the transition period

No other country would have such problems exiting the EU,because no other country has a^ troublesome colonial relic, bordering an EU country, with whom it has an international treaty and informal agreements not to impose a normal border.

We have run out of time for A50 negotiations

the only options at this late stage are:
this WA / revoke A50 / No Deal

WhatdoImean Fri 23-Nov-18 13:56:43

May's deal, written by the EU with the intention of making us worse off than we were as members to punish us for daring to ask to leave"

Ok - this I do not get. You are complaining that we are (in effect) choosing to leave a special club we have bought into that provides discounts of around 20% Vs what everyone else pays, plus other benefits..... and you are complaining that after leaving the club, the club are insisting that they will not provide any more services? What would you expect them to do - make a special exception for the British because... we are British? Besides, I am pretty sure that in sound-bite Brexit, "We hold all the cards", yes? Reality can be painful sometimes...

"May has betrayed all of us, lying through her teeth ever since the referendum campaign, deceiving the cabinet and the media"

So tell us - what was Brexit for you? Was it the same thing that Rod, Jane and Freddy (showing my age!) voted for down the road? Is it inside or outside the customs union? Was it a nirvana of blue passports and "Empire 2.0"?

"Ignore the Project Fear lies about WTO, it will be fine"

Please explain exactly how this will work? Numerous experts in their fields have explained multiple times how this will not be a viable possibility, yet you have complete faith it will be OK - why?

The UK has tried to get deals within the WTO based on current terms and told to take a hike. The last WTO trade deal was back in the 90s, and the current obligations on how that effects trade are fairly clear - and yes, there is an obligation for checks at the frontier, no special agreements with selected countries or groups of countries, if we are trading on WTO terms,,,

"as well as saving the country £39bn whch we do not owe the EU regardless of what they claim"

Again - would love to see the cost breakdown on this, and why you are so sure we do not owe them money. The simple fact is, as a country, your word is your bond. If you are shown to be untrustworthy (example, oh I don't know.... something like not paying your agreed upon bills) other countries for some strange reason would be very very reluctant to do business with us.

Mind you - back to Sound-Bite Brexit "Other countries will be lining up to do deals with us!". At the moment I am seeing tumbleweed.

"There is already widespread rejection of May's deal in the country."

Woah - I agree with you!! Phew

"There is no Irish border problem and never was".

OK - now this is plain ignorance. Do you know anything about the Good Friday Agreement? At all? Do you know the rules under which it was generated? If we are no longer in the Customs Union ("Take back control of our borders!!"), then hey presto, we suddenly have a border between Ireland and N. Ireland... and... cue massive impacts on both sides.

sigh

I don't think I want to bother any more..... As mentioned a couple of times - welcome to Sound-Bite Brexit!!

BigChocFrenzy Fri 23-Nov-18 13:57:22

re PV

Currently, both May and Corbyn oppose it
and there are far too few MPs prepared to vote for a PV

There would be public fury if No Deal is not among the options and / or Remain is / is not.
The Tory party at least would descend into civil war and we don't know how people would vote, amid such fury

which is why the 2 leaders continue to shun the idea, but particularly May

The PM would have to request the EU for a time extension, which they would only agree if Remain is an option
and they might still refuse if ther are particularly nasty anti-EU demonstrations and public statements by MPs

The EU is pretty fed up with all the insults coming their way
- most citizens there can read & understand English
and their tabloids translate the particularly nasty insults too.

BigChocFrenzy Fri 23-Nov-18 13:59:02

WhatdoImean We enjoy debates with Leavers who actually know some facts
but we don't bother replying to the plopper and his unicorn fantasies

RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 14:05:05

There is no Irish border problem and never was

If you say so.

borntobequiet Fri 23-Nov-18 14:07:01

Thanks, Red. Hope your Xmas prep is going well.

TheElementsSong Fri 23-Nov-18 14:17:16

Thanks for the new thread RTB!

WhatdoIMean Don't ever bother replying to ChipolataMan, he only plops and runs.

Tanith Fri 23-Nov-18 14:18:15

"The fact that the UK has spent over 2 years without deep and meaningful discussions of things that were possible (as opposed to the unicorns) is a rightful slapdown of UK politicians. I would have hoped that the senior members of the Civil Service who actually know about these matters would have been listened to, but no, soundbites R us."

We have that lazy incompetent David Davis to thank for that.

DGRossetti Fri 23-Nov-18 14:22:36

Don't know if anyone else feels Brexiteers have been remarkably quiet ... if nothing else, this deal has achieved that grin .

Not sure if there are any subscribers to the BBC History magazine, but a heads up that the "My Hero" piece on the Inside Back Page (now there's a name for a group grin) is JRM on Disraeli.

1tisILeClerc Fri 23-Nov-18 14:26:05

{We have that lazy incompetent David Davis to thank for that.}
Surely he was only the 'bag man' and it the UK gov had a plan and anything real to say over that duration he would have been removed. It is far more than just him and Raab.

With all the speculation about 'foreign' money and interference in the vote, why has it gone so quiet on that front?

Peregrina Fri 23-Nov-18 14:28:31

It's the weekend again so WhollyFather bobs up to manspain. But a week is a long time in politics - last week we were expecting the ERG i.e. your leaver side, woolly, to mount a leadership challenge. It turns out that Rees-Mogg couldn't count. Not very bright was he?

RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 14:30:23

BigChoc, the problem is that the PV hasn't been killed off as an idea. The more May talks about it, the more people think its possible. Even if its a total none starter of an idea. The point is that it feeds the hope that there will be one.

Personally I think it would be a total disaster. The problem is that we haven't moved forward either and a Blind Brexit doesn't resolve the question of what next.

Unfortunately I'm starting to see this as a problem in its own right. I can envisage it persisting as a problem even if May manages to get the WA through parliament and after 29th March.

This, to my mind, opens the possibility of a second referendum up - but crystalising in a different context to the one that has so far been proposed. One POST 29th March.

I can see, if we do get a deal, continuing to be something that people campaign for in the context of Canada v Norway and it becoming increasingly attractive to politicians to break the dead lock we are currently seeing.

This would be incredibly dangerous, but I fear that the lack of solutions and resolution to the problem coming from politicians is creating a vacuum into which the notion of another referendum pours from both remain / leave sides of the debate.

I sincerely hope I am wrong, however we are essentially continuing to lack meaningful leadership on this and are continuing to see a game of bothsiderism from both main parties and their leaders. The idea of another ref continues precisely because both leaders are persistantly trying avoid making a decision. It thus lends itself to various groups trying to push for that ultimate decision by any means they can; a referendum being the most attractive because of the idea that it gives the power of this decision to the people. The reality of course, is that it doesn't as we have seen with Brexit so far, with so many lobby groups and think tanks trying to highjack the ref for their own agenda.

The problem is that the public want a resolution to Brexit. We know there isn't going to be one for years and years, but the desire for a quick fix - which populism panders to. Thanks to social media suggesting that politics is far simplier and easier than it is in reality is the electorate are hooked on the idea that politicians can pull rabbits out of hats, if only we can vote for it via 'direct democracy'.

I don't know. I'm just that political vacuum shifting from where it has been to a new position, which is equally toxic if not potentially even more toxic.

May's failure to heal / resolve the rifts in the Tory Party and/or between the Leave/ Remain camps are amplifying...

usuallydormant Fri 23-Nov-18 14:33:20

flowers
(delurks momentarily) They're going to have to find a way to stay in the EU, aren't they? As an Irishwoman, I think it is the only WA you could have expected and I am amazed at how well the Irish government managed to keep its red lines but yes, of course it's shit for you.

If it's that, no deal or Remain, Remain is the only vaguely sane choice. It was always like that but it looks like the clouds are clearing even for some of the Brexiteers .

Peregrina Fri 23-Nov-18 14:36:25

"There is no Irish border problem and never was"

It is of course, the UK border, which Leavers seem unable to grasp. They wanted to control our borders, calling it something else doesn't stop it being ours.

RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 14:38:54

Don't know if anyone else feels Brexiteers have been remarkably quiet ... if nothing else, this deal has achieved that

They are just buying their time until the vote on it. Then we'll hear from them all over again. Even if its just hot air.

Enjoy it whilst it lasts.

RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 14:40:17

but it looks like the clouds are clearing even for some of the Brexiteers

Na, the likes as Nadine Dorries with her prattling about no MEPs, are still that thick I'm afraid.

frumpety Fri 23-Nov-18 14:50:48

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger

This is what worries me, the UK media don't bother with the 'mood in the room' in other EU countries, people come on here and say that the view from the continent is that we have lost the plot and it would be difficult to disagree with that view. I do wonder though if other countries, fed up with the attitude of the UK over the last couple of years, might also choose to veto the deal, if or when we ever put the effort in to getting one ?

frumpety Fri 23-Nov-18 14:55:57

Honestly still don't think it is going to happen though smile

Hasenstein Fri 23-Nov-18 15:00:17

.

RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 15:02:43

frumpety, the assumption that the EU would just accept and agree a deal is astonishing.

I think the spectre of Versailles looms large here. But I also think the UK are well aware of this and are using it to push our luck. I do think this ultimately has a limit though, and we should be wary of where that is. History hasn't exactly been heeded in many places around the world in recent years.

NinjaGoSaysNo Fri 23-Nov-18 15:05:12

brew

Peregrina Fri 23-Nov-18 15:06:41

I am not shedding any tears for WhollyFather not liking May's deal. You wanted Leave, she's negotiated something. If you don't like it, tough.

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