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Westminstenders: Break it or make it.

(972 Posts)
RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 11:43:49

We have a deal on the table. In reality it does not answer the question the result of the referendum posed: what type of deal do we want? The progress we have actually made in 2 years is to say, 'we want to leave' but nothing more. Or as its been termed: 'Blind Brexit' in which we exit but without knowing what comes next.

Even this is controversial. There are apparently some 88 Conservative back bench MPs (or half the Conservative back bench MPs) who are intending to vote against approving the deal. Some are remainers and some are hard leavers. Each side believing there is still everything to play for; whether that be no deal or no brexit. We are still as divided as ever.

The stumbling block, as ever, is largely the NI backstop. With many still arguing that it should be time limited. This fails to understand that the backstop is the GFA to all intents and purposes. And this is why Ireland and the EU will never agree to have a time limited backstop.

And once again we have this fundamental misunderstanding that the withdrawal agreement is anything more than merely the mechanism to leave, not the final deal, which is hampering all discussion of the subject.

There is talk that May will try to push the deal through and if she fails she will try for a second time. This might work, if this wasn't being anticipated. The trouble is the element of surprise is gone. This has now been denied by a No10 spokesperson. And has the possibility of a second referendum. Though the door on that, seems to be more open than less, with May's official declaration of a Blind Brexit. The whole effectiveness of a TARP style situation and a second vote on the deal in the HoC is the guilotine effect, where MPs look over the cliff and go 'shiiiiiitttt'. If the hope is alive for another way out for either the ERG or Remainers, then the plan is dead anyway. The a50 ECJ case is also still on; the latest government appeal to kill it was blocked.

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger.

Meanwhile Labour are still promising unicorns and a total renegotition of the deal. This still focuses on the backstop.

Sunday's EU summit does still seem to be on though, despite Merkel suggesting that she wouldn't turn up.

And remember, as it stands, on 29th March we will leave the EU without a deal. The power to stop this lies with the Government and EU as far as we know at present, pending the outcome of the ECJ case.

May still has everything to do to make a deal happen and there are so many forces and people working to break it. We have still not made any real progress to Brexit, apart from get closer to it, through the mere ticking of the clock.

lonelyplanetmum Fri 23-Nov-18 11:51:29

PMK! With thanks.

1tisILeClerc Fri 23-Nov-18 12:00:25

Thanks RTB.
Round 75 of 'Here we go around the Maybury bush' to a catchy but irritating tune.

FestiveForestieraNoel Fri 23-Nov-18 12:00:43

Thanks guys for all the info and updates.

Mrsr8 Fri 23-Nov-18 12:08:12

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Ineweverything Fri 23-Nov-18 12:08:15

Long time lurker on these threads. Thanks for the update and summary.

EtVoilaBrexit Fri 23-Nov-18 12:12:31

Place mat king.

I have an advert at the bottom if the thread for some immigration solicitors. How fitting sad

OhLookHeKickedTheBall Fri 23-Nov-18 12:18:45

thanks red
placemat

AwdBovril Fri 23-Nov-18 12:21:07

Thanks RTB.

Peregrina Fri 23-Nov-18 12:22:55

placemat too from me.

DarlingNikita Fri 23-Nov-18 12:24:22

Thanks Red.

missmoon Fri 23-Nov-18 12:25:30

Thanks RTB!

ClashCityRocker Fri 23-Nov-18 12:25:51

Thanks Red.

Inserting placemat here.

DGRossetti Fri 23-Nov-18 12:28:06

.

OberonTheHopeful Fri 23-Nov-18 12:28:45

A very long time lurker on these threads just saying thank you to RTB and all the contributors for the well informed discussion.

missmoon Fri 23-Nov-18 12:29:53

I just saw this article by Ian Dunt on Politico, it's very good on the details of the WA, and why people might object to it: www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/11/23/may-s-brexit-deal-is-a-humiliation-for-britain

Some highlights:

It doesn't matter how you look at it. You can squint with one eye, or stand upside down, or peer at it askew. You can be as sympathetic or stern as you like. It makes no difference. From every angle, on every basis, Theresa May's deal is horrific.

It is intolerable on a democratic, political, economic and logical basis. It takes one of the world's leading powers and puts it in a diplomatic and trading stranglehold. It undermines Britain's economic status, demolishes its political status, severs its territorial integrity and imposes a dangerous and unacceptable governance structure on Northern Ireland.

The deal offers a transition to the end of 2020. This can be extended once, but this must be done by July 2020. This is, to all intents and purposes, the new cliff edge. Without an extension, we will fall into the backstop. And no matter what wasteful lies May tells now, Britain will never pick the backstop, because it is appalling.

So in July 2020 the UK will inevitably ask for an extension of transition. The EU will give it to us, but first they'll ask for money. And we will pay. We'll pay them anything they ask for, because the entire structure of the deal gives the EU negotiating advantage.

If 2022 ends with no deal in place, which by any realistic assessment it will, we fall into the backstop. And then the real horror story starts. Overnight we lose services access to the continent. Our customs arrangements shrivel up into a little ball. There are no transport agreements, so permits for UK hauliers will be limited to five per cent of existing traffic. There are no veterinary or phytosanitary agreements, so agricultural products will be stopped and checked at the border, causing huge disruption. There is no common regulatory regime on goods, so they will also be checked and tested.

We become little more than an addendum to the EU's trading relationships with other countries. Article 3 Part 1(a) of Annex 2 of the Northern Ireland Protocol in the withdrawal agreement states that "the United Kingdom shall align the tariffs and rules applicable in its customs territory with the [EU's] Common Customs Tariff as set out in Article 56(2) of Regulation (EU) 952/2013."

That means we've harmonised our tariffs with those of the EU and have to apply the same duty rate to whichever country they do a deal with. But there is no reciprocal duty for those countries to open up their markets to us, because the deal is for EU member states - not countries in bespoke backstop agreements which have been devised to stop them imploding.

IrenetheQuaint Fri 23-Nov-18 12:30:34

gin

Hazardswan Fri 23-Nov-18 12:43:31

Thanks red xxx

WhollyFather Fri 23-Nov-18 12:51:46

May's deal, written by the EU with the intention of making us worse off than we were as members to punish us for daring to ask to leave, is a disaster which would not only put us at the mercy of the EU for as long as they wanted to play with us but undermine, possibly fatally, the concept of democracy in the UK. There are plenty of articles out there explaining why it is so awful: Ruth Lea here, Robert Tombs here and Martin Howe QC here.

May has betrayed all of us, lying through her teeth ever since the referendum campaign, deceiving the cabinet and the media. She has to be sacked, replaced by a Brexiteer who respects democracy, her 'deal' scrapped and work preparing for WTO pushed ahead. Ignore the Project Fear lies about WTO, it will be fine, as well as saving the country £39bn whch we do not owe the EU regardless of what they claim. There is already widespread rejection of May's deal in the country.

There is no Irish border problem and never was. This was cooked up between the EU and Leo Varadkar in a deliberate attempt to thwart Brexit. Customs problems? I don't think so, and nor does the head of UK customs Jon Thompson. Thus, no need for any 'backstop' at all.

And Spain cannot block the EU's acceptance of their own deal because voting will be on QMV, where the support of only 20 of the 27 remaining members will be enough, and you can guarantee the Germans will have no trouble strong-arming enough little or poor countries into line.

1tisILeClerc Fri 23-Nov-18 12:57:12

That is what you call negotiation.
I would expect nothing less from the EU really. They are negotiating on behalf of the other EU members and it it was a different country trying to leave and not the UK we would expect nothing less.
The fact that the UK has spent over 2 years without deep and meaningful discussions of things that were possible (as opposed to the unicorns) is a rightful slapdown of UK politicians. I would have hoped that the senior members of the Civil Service who actually know about these matters would have been listened to, but no, soundbites R us. In the way that you might tell your child not to do something, or warn them that it will hurt or whatever, if they persist and it goes wrong, you will be tempted to say 'told you so'.
Since it has been so obvious for many years that the UK (at political level) is not willing to share rights and responsibilities with Europe I think the WA is a polite message to 'go away', although leaving it possible for the UK to actually function (for now) and it it really asks properly could stay.

1tisILeClerc Fri 23-Nov-18 13:09:53

Depending when the UK leaves, the amount to be paid will vary. Up until March 2019 it is around £20 Billion, £39 Billion if the UK gets a transition period. It is for current projects, pensions etc and the principle has been agreed.
My previous post says the 'deal' is bad but since the UK gov, with all it's advisors have refused to come up with another plan that was even remotely possible in 2 1/2 years it is obvious the EU had to come up with something. When leaving, WTO rules say that there must be border checks and customs, so that is not a 'get out' for the NI border. Although draconian in other ways, the EU is honouring the commitment to having no border. To achieve this involves pain by the UK, but you can say 'they started it' so it is for the UK to resolve it.
The WA is as you say by QMV and as far as I am aware the Spanish objection was that it might have closed the discussion about the 'ownership' of Gibraltar. They want that question open to be 'resolved' in negotiations separate to Brexit. It should also act as an indication that negotiations are going to get a darn sight tougher from here on in so maybe the UK should find a good negotiating team.

1tisILeClerc Fri 23-Nov-18 13:12:39

If there is any indication that the UK won't pay the £20/39/?? Billion then it will severely hamper the chances of deals with other countries who will see the UK as untrustworthy. It would be 'cash only' or horrendous obligations.

UnnecessaryFennel Fri 23-Nov-18 13:13:25

Placemarking, thanks red

jasjas1973 Fri 23-Nov-18 13:18:52

@WhollyFather the real question is "why would May do all this?" its a hardly remainer style deal.

The answer is that her goal is to keep the party together and in power.

A brexitier PM would also fail, the Parliamentary math for what you or i want, do not exist, so she is driving down through the middle!

DGRossetti Fri 23-Nov-18 13:19:39

www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4Eo4-oyejk

bellinisurge Fri 23-Nov-18 13:21:07

brewwinegincaketardis

1tisILeClerc Fri 23-Nov-18 13:47:10

Bellini
Looks like your Friday night is sorted!

RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 13:49:04

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Big: Theresa May refuses to rule out resigning as PM three times if her Brexit deal falls in the Commons: To @Emmabarnett: "This is not about me". New message to Tory MPs - my deal, or party chaos if I go.

BigChocFrenzy Fri 23-Nov-18 13:51:07

Thanks, red 💐

^This WA was the only way to reconcile May's red lines - especially ending FOM and avoiding a hard NI border - and those of the EU

To get a better deal, the UK would have to drop some of its red lines
but there is no time before Brexit - that renegotiation could happen, if the UK govt wishes, in the transition period

No other country would have such problems exiting the EU,because no other country has a^ troublesome colonial relic, bordering an EU country, with whom it has an international treaty and informal agreements not to impose a normal border.

We have run out of time for A50 negotiations

the only options at this late stage are:
this WA / revoke A50 / No Deal

WhatdoImean Fri 23-Nov-18 13:56:43

May's deal, written by the EU with the intention of making us worse off than we were as members to punish us for daring to ask to leave"

Ok - this I do not get. You are complaining that we are (in effect) choosing to leave a special club we have bought into that provides discounts of around 20% Vs what everyone else pays, plus other benefits..... and you are complaining that after leaving the club, the club are insisting that they will not provide any more services? What would you expect them to do - make a special exception for the British because... we are British? Besides, I am pretty sure that in sound-bite Brexit, "We hold all the cards", yes? Reality can be painful sometimes...

"May has betrayed all of us, lying through her teeth ever since the referendum campaign, deceiving the cabinet and the media"

So tell us - what was Brexit for you? Was it the same thing that Rod, Jane and Freddy (showing my age!) voted for down the road? Is it inside or outside the customs union? Was it a nirvana of blue passports and "Empire 2.0"?

"Ignore the Project Fear lies about WTO, it will be fine"

Please explain exactly how this will work? Numerous experts in their fields have explained multiple times how this will not be a viable possibility, yet you have complete faith it will be OK - why?

The UK has tried to get deals within the WTO based on current terms and told to take a hike. The last WTO trade deal was back in the 90s, and the current obligations on how that effects trade are fairly clear - and yes, there is an obligation for checks at the frontier, no special agreements with selected countries or groups of countries, if we are trading on WTO terms,,,

"as well as saving the country £39bn whch we do not owe the EU regardless of what they claim"

Again - would love to see the cost breakdown on this, and why you are so sure we do not owe them money. The simple fact is, as a country, your word is your bond. If you are shown to be untrustworthy (example, oh I don't know.... something like not paying your agreed upon bills) other countries for some strange reason would be very very reluctant to do business with us.

Mind you - back to Sound-Bite Brexit "Other countries will be lining up to do deals with us!". At the moment I am seeing tumbleweed.

"There is already widespread rejection of May's deal in the country."

Woah - I agree with you!! Phew

"There is no Irish border problem and never was".

OK - now this is plain ignorance. Do you know anything about the Good Friday Agreement? At all? Do you know the rules under which it was generated? If we are no longer in the Customs Union ("Take back control of our borders!!"), then hey presto, we suddenly have a border between Ireland and N. Ireland... and... cue massive impacts on both sides.

sigh

I don't think I want to bother any more..... As mentioned a couple of times - welcome to Sound-Bite Brexit!!

BigChocFrenzy Fri 23-Nov-18 13:57:22

re PV

Currently, both May and Corbyn oppose it
and there are far too few MPs prepared to vote for a PV

There would be public fury if No Deal is not among the options and / or Remain is / is not.
The Tory party at least would descend into civil war and we don't know how people would vote, amid such fury

which is why the 2 leaders continue to shun the idea, but particularly May

The PM would have to request the EU for a time extension, which they would only agree if Remain is an option
and they might still refuse if ther are particularly nasty anti-EU demonstrations and public statements by MPs

The EU is pretty fed up with all the insults coming their way
- most citizens there can read & understand English
and their tabloids translate the particularly nasty insults too.

BigChocFrenzy Fri 23-Nov-18 13:59:02

WhatdoImean We enjoy debates with Leavers who actually know some facts
but we don't bother replying to the plopper and his unicorn fantasies

RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 14:05:05

There is no Irish border problem and never was

If you say so.

borntobequiet Fri 23-Nov-18 14:07:01

Thanks, Red. Hope your Xmas prep is going well.

TheElementsSong Fri 23-Nov-18 14:17:16

Thanks for the new thread RTB!

WhatdoIMean Don't ever bother replying to ChipolataMan, he only plops and runs.

Tanith Fri 23-Nov-18 14:18:15

"The fact that the UK has spent over 2 years without deep and meaningful discussions of things that were possible (as opposed to the unicorns) is a rightful slapdown of UK politicians. I would have hoped that the senior members of the Civil Service who actually know about these matters would have been listened to, but no, soundbites R us."

We have that lazy incompetent David Davis to thank for that.

DGRossetti Fri 23-Nov-18 14:22:36

Don't know if anyone else feels Brexiteers have been remarkably quiet ... if nothing else, this deal has achieved that grin .

Not sure if there are any subscribers to the BBC History magazine, but a heads up that the "My Hero" piece on the Inside Back Page (now there's a name for a group grin) is JRM on Disraeli.

1tisILeClerc Fri 23-Nov-18 14:26:05

{We have that lazy incompetent David Davis to thank for that.}
Surely he was only the 'bag man' and it the UK gov had a plan and anything real to say over that duration he would have been removed. It is far more than just him and Raab.

With all the speculation about 'foreign' money and interference in the vote, why has it gone so quiet on that front?

Peregrina Fri 23-Nov-18 14:28:31

It's the weekend again so WhollyFather bobs up to manspain. But a week is a long time in politics - last week we were expecting the ERG i.e. your leaver side, woolly, to mount a leadership challenge. It turns out that Rees-Mogg couldn't count. Not very bright was he?

RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 14:30:23

BigChoc, the problem is that the PV hasn't been killed off as an idea. The more May talks about it, the more people think its possible. Even if its a total none starter of an idea. The point is that it feeds the hope that there will be one.

Personally I think it would be a total disaster. The problem is that we haven't moved forward either and a Blind Brexit doesn't resolve the question of what next.

Unfortunately I'm starting to see this as a problem in its own right. I can envisage it persisting as a problem even if May manages to get the WA through parliament and after 29th March.

This, to my mind, opens the possibility of a second referendum up - but crystalising in a different context to the one that has so far been proposed. One POST 29th March.

I can see, if we do get a deal, continuing to be something that people campaign for in the context of Canada v Norway and it becoming increasingly attractive to politicians to break the dead lock we are currently seeing.

This would be incredibly dangerous, but I fear that the lack of solutions and resolution to the problem coming from politicians is creating a vacuum into which the notion of another referendum pours from both remain / leave sides of the debate.

I sincerely hope I am wrong, however we are essentially continuing to lack meaningful leadership on this and are continuing to see a game of bothsiderism from both main parties and their leaders. The idea of another ref continues precisely because both leaders are persistantly trying avoid making a decision. It thus lends itself to various groups trying to push for that ultimate decision by any means they can; a referendum being the most attractive because of the idea that it gives the power of this decision to the people. The reality of course, is that it doesn't as we have seen with Brexit so far, with so many lobby groups and think tanks trying to highjack the ref for their own agenda.

The problem is that the public want a resolution to Brexit. We know there isn't going to be one for years and years, but the desire for a quick fix - which populism panders to. Thanks to social media suggesting that politics is far simplier and easier than it is in reality is the electorate are hooked on the idea that politicians can pull rabbits out of hats, if only we can vote for it via 'direct democracy'.

I don't know. I'm just that political vacuum shifting from where it has been to a new position, which is equally toxic if not potentially even more toxic.

May's failure to heal / resolve the rifts in the Tory Party and/or between the Leave/ Remain camps are amplifying...

usuallydormant Fri 23-Nov-18 14:33:20

flowers
(delurks momentarily) They're going to have to find a way to stay in the EU, aren't they? As an Irishwoman, I think it is the only WA you could have expected and I am amazed at how well the Irish government managed to keep its red lines but yes, of course it's shit for you.

If it's that, no deal or Remain, Remain is the only vaguely sane choice. It was always like that but it looks like the clouds are clearing even for some of the Brexiteers .

Peregrina Fri 23-Nov-18 14:36:25

"There is no Irish border problem and never was"

It is of course, the UK border, which Leavers seem unable to grasp. They wanted to control our borders, calling it something else doesn't stop it being ours.

RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 14:38:54

Don't know if anyone else feels Brexiteers have been remarkably quiet ... if nothing else, this deal has achieved that

They are just buying their time until the vote on it. Then we'll hear from them all over again. Even if its just hot air.

Enjoy it whilst it lasts.

RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 14:40:17

but it looks like the clouds are clearing even for some of the Brexiteers

Na, the likes as Nadine Dorries with her prattling about no MEPs, are still that thick I'm afraid.

frumpety Fri 23-Nov-18 14:50:48

Not only this, but there is the first tangable rumblings of discontent within the EU towards the deal. Spain has talked about voting the deal down. Whether this is anymore than talk, remains to be seen. Spain can not veto the deal at this stage anyway - but it might be able to cause trouble further down the line and thats the danger

This is what worries me, the UK media don't bother with the 'mood in the room' in other EU countries, people come on here and say that the view from the continent is that we have lost the plot and it would be difficult to disagree with that view. I do wonder though if other countries, fed up with the attitude of the UK over the last couple of years, might also choose to veto the deal, if or when we ever put the effort in to getting one ?

frumpety Fri 23-Nov-18 14:55:57

Honestly still don't think it is going to happen though smile

Hasenstein Fri 23-Nov-18 15:00:17

.

RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 15:02:43

frumpety, the assumption that the EU would just accept and agree a deal is astonishing.

I think the spectre of Versailles looms large here. But I also think the UK are well aware of this and are using it to push our luck. I do think this ultimately has a limit though, and we should be wary of where that is. History hasn't exactly been heeded in many places around the world in recent years.

NinjaGoSaysNo Fri 23-Nov-18 15:05:12

brew

Peregrina Fri 23-Nov-18 15:06:41

I am not shedding any tears for WhollyFather not liking May's deal. You wanted Leave, she's negotiated something. If you don't like it, tough.

RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 15:11:01

The law of unintended consequences and the a50 revocation case

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/aticle-50-james-ball-deconstructed-repeal-court-ruling-brexit-chaos-peoples-vote-1-5790925
Article 50 ruling could bring chaos

frumpety Fri 23-Nov-18 15:26:19

Marvellous , so we have been put in a situation where potentially there are only two options available, instead of three. ( I liked option 3 , it was always the best option)
1. Mays WA and whatever deal we eventually manage to scrape together, no say , still same number of rules.
2. No deal and regardless of what Wholly and their ilk would like us to think, a whole host of undesirable but predicted consequences. And still be a rule taker.

OhYouBadBadKitten Fri 23-Nov-18 15:31:41

Thanks RTB.

missmoon Fri 23-Nov-18 15:32:52

Jo Maugham has suggested that one outcome of the A50 case could be the ECJ rules that it is revocable, but attach some conditions (eg, it can’t be done repeatedly, it must be done in good faith, it must follow a significance change in government, etc.).

BigChocFrenzy Fri 23-Nov-18 15:47:33

Yes, I've heard conditions such as having to pay back all the billions the EU has spent on prepping - much more than the UK !

One possibility is a v high penalty, e.g. €50 billion, if the UK calls A50 again - a country cannot be stopped from withdrawing from any agreement, but specified financial penalties if this happens are legally binding.

I also suspect they might want an NI backstop even with Remain, as the BorderIrish (!) said - it no longer trusts what the UK might dream up next

BigChocFrenzy Fri 23-Nov-18 15:50:17

red I also suspect we might have a PV in transition - or even before - if the UK govt decision-making disintegrates completely
and the Opposition keeps deliberately letting them sink, along with the country.

1tisILeClerc Fri 23-Nov-18 15:51:06

On the basis that everyone has to accept rules from someone in many ways I would prefer to take rules from the EU which produces the rules based on 27/28 countries chucking in two penn'oth over a Tory (and probably Labour) government with some of the pretty extreme views and attitudes. We have witnessed the manipulation possible in the UK government, but this would be much harder to get through with diverse views from Germany to Portugal. Higher taxes, used intelligently* to improve the lives of all seem good to me.

* I think I spot a flaw in this plan in UKs case.

OhLookHeKickedTheBall Fri 23-Nov-18 15:54:26

"There is no Irish border problem and never was"

In a lot of respects thats true, because as Andrew Maxwell so spectacularly pointed out: it's not the Irish border, it's the British border in Ireland. The Irish border is the beach.

There is, however, a British border in Ireland problem.

RosaPalma Fri 23-Nov-18 16:03:49

Placemarking with this extraordinary interview between Sean O'Rourke (RTE) and John Redwood earlier today where he throws a hissy fit and hangs up when it is clear that his understanding of trade deals and WTO terms is at the same level as his grasp of English . He really does not like being questioned grin.

www.rte.ie/radio1/today-with-sean-o-rourke/

EtVoilaBrexit Fri 23-Nov-18 16:08:41

Struggling to follow atm.
Can someone tell me what PV stands for please?

1tisILeClerc Fri 23-Nov-18 16:12:25

Peoples Vote

missmoon Fri 23-Nov-18 16:25:54

I would prefer to take rules from the EU which produces the rules based on 27/28 countries chucking in two penn'oth over a Tory (and probably Labour) government with some of the pretty extreme views

I agree 100%! I would be happy with an EFTA/EEA arrangement for precisely this reason.

1tisILeClerc Fri 23-Nov-18 16:28:07

That John Redwood clip. Absolutely astounding!

merrymouse Fri 23-Nov-18 16:40:40

Something that confuses me at the moment is the idea that everyone will be happy to have a customs/single market border within Ireland as long as it is managed by technology and there is no physical evidence that it exists.

People are using examples like the congestion charge zone (nothing to do with what you carry inside your vehicle and ease of payment does not mean that people are happy to pay) and Switzerland and Norway (Not controversial to say that these are completely different countries, and they have agreements with the EU that enable them to participate in the Single Market in ways that Brexiters have ruled out).

frumpety Fri 23-Nov-18 16:41:53

Wish I could listen to the Redwood clip, cant get it to play, did he throw a hissy fit because someone wouldn't let him get away with soundbites and untruths ? Must have been most discombobulating for him if so grin

RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 16:45:14

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Fancy that. No10 has, out of the blue, just given long standing eurosceptic Tory MP John Hayes a knighthood. Two unrelated facts: he didn't sign a no confidence letter, and hasn't yet said he'll vote down the Brexit deal.

Nick Cohen @NickCohen4
How cheap. He should have hung out for an earldom

1tisILeClerc Fri 23-Nov-18 16:47:37

Not so much a hissy fit but a whole string of bollocks about WTO and saying people that don't agree are fools.
When the interviewer came back to challenge Redwood he had gone.

prettybird Fri 23-Nov-18 16:52:19

frumpety - if you go to the Podcasts tab, you can then download it and play it. That's how I'm listening to it now - just waiting to get to the hissy fit bit wink. It's called "Make or Break Brexit".

RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 16:53:41

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
John Hayes knighted. A Brexiteer who has been trying to persuade colleagues to back May on behalf of No10. Almost gotta admire it.

merrymouse Fri 23-Nov-18 16:54:01

For comparison, Technology made it easier to cross the Second Severn Crossing with a TAG and presumably it would have been possible to move to a number plate recognition charge system for everyone, but the charge is still being scrapped.

The Welsh secretary said:

"The principle of paying to come in to Wales is something that has irritated us for 50 years"

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-45467656

merrymouse Fri 23-Nov-18 16:55:14

and saying people that don't agree are fools

That is pretty much the ERG strategy in a nutshell.

RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 16:59:26

Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
Exhibit A: The Sunday Times, Oct 14
Exhibit B: Downing Street press release, Nov 23

1tisILeClerc Fri 23-Nov-18 17:01:34

Number plate recognition is used when you nip between EU countries.
The upside is that if you report it stolen they know which part of Europe it is in!

DGRossetti Fri 23-Nov-18 17:09:27

"The principle of paying to come in to Wales is something that has irritated us for 50 years"

Might have been a lot worse if you had to pay to leave Wales ....

RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 17:09:47

This is going to go well...

Heather Stewart @GuardianHeather
Next step in the Brexit comms blitz - Number 10 has launched the snappily-titled BREXIT FACTS blog, to rebut negative coverage...

brexitfacts.blog.gov.uk/
Brexit Facts
Organisations: Prime Minister's Office, 10 Downing Street

DGRossetti Fri 23-Nov-18 17:10:55

Number plate recognition is used when you nip between EU countries.

Except for motorbikes - which is why they are exempt from the Congestion Charge.

RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 17:12:35

ukandeu.ac.uk/the-house-of-commons-and-the-brexit-endgame-what-can-the-commons-achieve-before-exit-day/
The House of Commons and the Brexit Endgame: what can the Commons achieve before exit day?

RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 17:16:27

Ravi Naik @RaviNa1k
Important case for press freedom. We acted for @MikeSegalov to successfully challenge the (previously secret) police press accreditation system. The excellent @judebunting of @DoughtyStPublic instructed. See @robevansgdn reporting:
www.theguardian.com/media/2018/nov/23/journalist-michael-segalov-unlawfully-barred-from-labour-conference-court-rules
Journalist unlawfully barred from Labour conference, court rules

Michael Segalov sued Sussex police for secretly labelling him a leftwing extremist

‘My court case against the police is a victory for press freedom’

Wow.

RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 17:21:11

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
Real push now from Downing St, trying to turn around public and then MPs opinion on the Brexit Deal. So how many Cabinet ministers are going to use the official hashtag?

twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1066013570792603649
She's got a hashtag AND a video.

Must be getting serious.

1tisILeClerc Fri 23-Nov-18 17:25:11

{Might have been a lot worse if you had to pay to leave Wales ....}
It's part of a plan, next you won't be able go get out of Wales, they are after all a 'bit' foreign. They have that funny language too.

DGRossetti Fri 23-Nov-18 17:27:44

Real push now from Downing St, trying to turn around public and then MPs opinion on the Brexit

The problem is the only changing minds have been doing over the past 2 years is away from Brexit.

And anyway, the adage about advertising is only needed for things you don't need rings true. If Brexit was that good, it would surely sell itself.

And I am suspecting that entire end point of this exercise is not to promote Brexit, but to promote Theresa May and the Tories. Which, as a taxpayer, I object to strongly.

BigChocFrenzy Fri 23-Nov-18 17:29:00

Number plate recognition has long been tried and trusted (unless the plate is covered in mud)

Unfortunately, there is no tech solution for most phytosanitary checks,
e.g. to tell if any of the cattle / beef within a truck were raised with masses of hormones, banned in the EU

BigChocFrenzy Fri 23-Nov-18 17:32:00

The ERG tried to topple May, but only succeeded in showing what a laughable bunch of incompetents they are.

The Irish border summed up the last ERG shenanigans perfectly:

The Irish Border@BorderIrish

The people who had the idea of Brexit but were too incompetent to actually organize it
* have now had the idea of staging a coup against their own idea*
but are too incompetent to actually organize it 😂😂

< see a common theme there >

RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 17:37:56

George Eaton @ georgeeaton
Theresa May resembles a parent serving their children dry chicken and boiled potatoes before telling them: "It's that or no dinner at all!"

FestiveForestieraNoel Fri 23-Nov-18 17:40:45

And you'll get it again tomorrow morning for breakfast...

DGRossetti Fri 23-Nov-18 17:46:47

Number plate recognition has long been tried and trusted (unless the plate is covered in mud)

"trusted" ? With cloned plates an accepted fact - even here on Mumsnet ?

Even doing a simple report on cars reported as entering and leaving a supermarket (so pretty "clean" conditions) shows a margin of error of 2-3. (You query the database, see how many cars there should be in the car park. You then put boots on the ground and count ...)

Also, have we sorted out access to all those lovely EU databases ? You'd need those for ANPR to actually work.

DGRossetti Fri 23-Nov-18 17:49:55

So that's one billion pounds we'll never see again.

www.theregister.co.uk/2018/11/23/galileo/

There were heated exchanges at the UK's Defence and European Scrutiny Committee this week as members attempted to get the Minister for Defence Procurement, Stuart Andrew, to put a figure on the cost of the Galileo project.

Andrew did not have the number to hand, which prompted Mark Francois MP to splutter: "Oh come on, Stuart, this is your job!"

Admittedly, the minister has only been in the role since July 2018. But still.

The figure, when it came, was €1.15bn, or around £1bn at current rates, and reflected how much the UK has spent on the programme to date.

(contd)

BigChocFrenzy Fri 23-Nov-18 17:56:03

red May does remind me of my childhood and primary school dinners - where we had no choice,
veg - boiled to death the British way, fatty meat, potato swimming in water
followed by incredibly dense suet pud & lumpy flour-flavoured custard.

I used to have to sit their all lunch hour until I finished, or be slippered.
I once vomited up part of a meal, but was made to eat it

Ah, "the good old days" 🤔
I really don't see them as some lost British Dream to which I want to return.

DGRossetti Fri 23-Nov-18 18:07:24

Meanwhile, in grown-up land ...

www.theregister.co.uk/2018/11/23/brexit_ireland_backstop_hmrc/

theregister.co.uk
HMRC: 30 months to prep Northern Ireland backstop systems, 24 for customs
23 Nov 2018 at 17:45
6-7 minutes

With just two years to go until the end of the Brexit transition period, HMRC has said its preparations for a Northern Ireland backstop could take up to 30 months – once Whitehall has said how the mechanism will work.

Effectively, this means there is no definitive date on when it could be operational.

It is the latest in a long line of stark warnings from the UK's tax department that have consistently stated that, until it has something more concrete to go on, it is impossible to build the relevant systems.

The two permanent secretaries at the department, Jim Harra and Jon Thompson, were speaking to the Treasury Committee (PDF) this week, in what Thompson said was his 13th select committee appearance about Brexit.

Thompson revealed that building the systems required for the Northern Ireland backstop could take more than two years – but pointed out this was based on a series of assumptions.

"It is really difficult to answer that question," he said when asked if a backstop would be ready by December 2020, which is when the transition period is currently scheduled to end.

For a start, he said, the department needs further clarity "on what exactly is required in order for us to be able to work out what IT systems we would need to build".

After that, HMRC would need to know what EU IT systems and databases it still had access to. The Withdrawal Agreement provides for different systems to be shut off at different times, but a draft political declaration published yesterday aims to re-negotiate access once the transition period is over.

I will be pleasantly surprised if the political declaration, when it is completed, gives us that level of certainty.

Once the department has those two elements, it can specify the operations required and build IT systems to do it – at which point, "we would need businesses that are transacting towards Northern Ireland to adapt or amend their own systems".

"In broad terms, if we were to make a number of assumptions, we think it could be up to 30 months to do that work," he said – but the clock won't start ticking until the governments reach an agreement.

For other customs systems at the border – working under the assumption it would be asked to implement a Facilitated Customs Arrangement – Thompson said it would take 24 months. But again this comes with the same caveats.

Harra added that, while an operational version of the Facilitated Customs Arrangement, for example, could be ready in 24 months, a repayment mechanism for businesses that overpaid would take longer.

On the time frame, Harra said it was unlikely that the completion of the political declaration on the future relationship, which was updated yesterday after a series of leaks, would be enough. That document (PDF), which runs to 26 pages, makes references to customs cooperation, but provided no specific details.

"I will be pleasantly surprised if the political declaration, when it is completed, gives us that level of certainty," he said. "In a Facilitated Customs Arrangement there is quite a lot to be agreed with the EU, which I would expect us to have to do in the next phase of the negotiation."

He effectively concluded there would be no choice but to proceed on the basis of some risk – which means there is "a chance that we will make the wrong assumptions and, therefore, we will have to redo some work".
Businesses taking the strain

Thompson repeatedly emphasised that readiness wasn't just down to the civil service.

"Even if we say we are clear about what needs to be operationalised, this is a highly automated system in which a whole range of other people then need to change their own systems," he said. "Traders, haulage companies, ports, airports and so on that need to adapt their own systems to what it is that we are saying they need to do".

If the government decide that they want to introduce an inventory linked system that requires ports and the ferry operators to introduce some new technology so that we know what lorries are crossing Dover Strait, so that when they enter the United Kingdom we can decide which ones to stop – that is a plausible scenario – that requires other people to build IT systems, to purchase IT systems or amend IT systems. That will take some time. It will not necessarily be about HMRC.

Finally, on the prospect of a no-deal Brexit, Harra reiterated previous comments that HMRC has plans in place and could have a functioning customs border on 30 March 2019 – but this would come at a cost, quite literally.

"We know the priority is to keep trade flowing and that fiscal risks may have to increase over the short term to enable that," he said.

"Therefore, the arrangements we will have in place will be suboptimal. They will not give us the level of assurance of taxes we would want to have and we would have to build on them over time. However, we recognise – because the priority is to keep trade flowing – that is what we will have to do."

He added that the compromises made on border control systems would be on financial, rather than security and safety risks. ®

BigChocFrenzy Fri 23-Nov-18 18:12:24

DG I said tried & trusted - not foolproof or crookproof

For small amounts of goods, the EU wouldn't be happy,
but already has to tolerate some smuggling across all its current external borders - it would be ruinously expensive to make them 100% safe

For larger goods vehicles, number plate recognition would run alongside Trusted Trader schemes, plus vigorous policing in the RoI and heavy penalties for transgressors.

BUT
If mainland GB leaves with No Deal and no longer follows all EU standards, then the NI border is a potential source of sub-standard goodsA whole new ball-game where everyone loses except the crooks.
That would mean phyto-sanitary, Rules of origin etc checks, for which there is no clever tech to avoid a hard border

Hence the need for an external border in that case - the alternatives of either the SM being damaged / challenged in the WTO, or the RoI leaving the SM are not acceptable

For all the UK,
a big problem with No Deal is that we would not be on ANY EU databases, including those for imports of any kind

R North wrote that it takes 6 months to fully process a 3rd country application to be put on those databases
... and that's with countries that haven't pissed off the EU

They might not let us on those databases at all, until we reinstate the backstop, pay any bills oweed, re-instate expat rights .... and undo any new stupid actions from our govt

BestIsWest Fri 23-Nov-18 18:14:03

I can only recommend @Darius (John Bull) ongoing Twitter thread about the WA once again if you haven’t seen it. It’s made me snort out loud a few times. Very good on the Irish border technical solution.

BestIsWest Fri 23-Nov-18 18:14:31

@Garius not darius

BigChocFrenzy Fri 23-Nov-18 18:14:47

To keep trade flowing - well, to reduce the logjams -
the Uk would have to abandon checks on RoI and indeed all EU imports, at least of food, meds and other essentials

it would also have to abandon collecting VAT and duties.

1tisILeClerc Fri 23-Nov-18 18:14:57

Jam roly poly, Manchester tart, real custard that would probably glow in the dark and it's pink and brown variants. The scheme to go in last and get larger portions and a possibility of second, occasionally thirds!
A couple of miles walk a day helped against weight gain.

BigChocFrenzy Fri 23-Nov-18 18:15:20

That is one of the major problems with a No Deal

DGRossetti Fri 23-Nov-18 18:16:03

DG I said tried & trusted - not foolproof or crookproof

The semantics of trusting something which is neither foolproof, nor crookproof would be an interesting exercise for airline pilots (for example).

How many people need to trust it for it to be "trusted" ? 1 ? 100% ? 52 % ?

I don't trust it, so it can't be 100%. I suspect the answer will be "1" again. That "1" being Theresa May ....

BestIsWest Fri 23-Nov-18 18:16:46

Link twitter.com/garius/status/1062983853260918784?s=21

BigChocFrenzy Fri 23-Nov-18 18:18:26

leClerc You were obviously one of those boys - with switched off taste buds - who would gobble down all their dinner and then rush out to play,

while I sat all hour forcing down the luridly-coloured custard, which tasted like the leavings of a chem lab experiment
and the suet pud which was like trying to eat a car bumper

RedToothBrush Fri 23-Nov-18 18:19:33

"Femsplained"

BigChocFrenzy Fri 23-Nov-18 18:20:35

DG In practice, such systems can never be 100%
So "trusted" really means "good enough for govt work"
because to stop the remaining 10% (?) takes 10 x the effort and resources that controlled the 90%

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