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Brexit

Westministenders: A Change of Mood

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 17:57

A day after 700,000 people came from all over the country to march on the streets of the Capital to protest and say there needs to be another vote on what next.

Has it changed anything?

Well the mood is changing.

Former leavers are starting to have doubts. Not necessarily about leaving but certainly about how its been handled. Some have ridicilous ideas on how it should be done which are not grounded in any sort of reality. But others are starting to realise that a lot of what Remainers said, at least has some truth, in terms of the complexity and practical problems of leaving.

The EU who previoiusly have been exasperated but accomodating are starting to baton down the hatches and move to a no deal position. The EU summit in November will now no longer include the UK because progress has not been made, although we have been told this is changeable if we have a change of heart. At the summit they will talk about No Deal planning. There has been talk that the final deadline for the UK is 13th December, but there are also some saying this is optimistic and in reality its the middle of November in political terms because this is when EU countries will start committing large amounts of money to No Deal. At this point, it becomes much more difficult for leaders to justify to their own population 'wasting' money on no deal measures.

Back in the UK, the penny is starting to drop. Peston has talked about just how far away we really are from a deal. He's the first main stream journalist to say it outloud. Everyone else is still maintaining we will get a deal, when May just does not have the power in her own party to manage it. She is now reaching out to Labour to help her get a deal as its her only option left open to her now.

May has to get the budget through parliament before the EU summit - on the 1st November - and the DUP are already threatening to vote against it as leverage to get their own way on Brexit.

Tory MP Johnny Mercer is so fed up of it all, that he's come out saying that that he wouldn't vote Tory now, and its all a "complete shit show".

This apparently hasn't gone down too well with other Tories as they feel it means that its more likely to provoke a leadership challenge sooner rather than later. It has been reported that May has been effectively been put on notice and she 72 hours to sort it out. She has been called to a 1922 Committee Meeting on Wednesday to answer to backbenchers.

Up until now, its been thought that the 48 letters wouldn't be sent to Graham Brady because she would win a no confidence vote. Its now being reported that there is a creeping fear that the party would end up with a situation like Labour where they were unable to get rid of Corbyn, and if a leadership challenge was launched they would need to just get rid of her now.

Quick revision:

  1. To trigger a confidence vote 48 letters (15% of Tory MPs) need to be sent to Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee.
  2. There is then a vote, and the leader needs 156 MPs (50.1%) of the vote to win or they face a leadership election.
  3. If there is no confidence vote, another one can't be called for twelve months.

    There has been talk of David Davis as an interim leader, which isn't true; its just the start of another round of positioning as Tories smell the blood of a wounded leader. Johnson is also circling and isn't impressed at David Davis seemingly throwing his hat in the ring, despite previously he would just retire.

    Triggering a no confidence vote, just before the EU summit around the time of the budget could be just about the worst timing possible if thats the case...

    ... it would leave British politics in complete chaos and the EU will have effectively run out of time and will have to commit themselves to No Deal anyway.
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bellinisurge · 21/10/2018 18:06

Thanks @RedToothBrush . But I too think we are running out of time. There are too many people who take this personally and won't budge because they hate being wrong.
I've never been happier to be wrong.

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Icantreachthepretzels · 21/10/2018 18:15

Thanks Red - we seem to have got through that last one very quickly. I wonder how fast we'll work through this one?

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Talkstotrees · 21/10/2018 18:15

Thank you for the new fred Red.

I marched on Saturday and today I have done the Great South Run (sporting a prominently placed Bollocks to Brexit sticker). Catching up on news on the way home and I’m feeling tearful - and not in a good way.

The idea of that wanker David Davis further ruining our country - threatening the EU with UK airspace bans - is horribly depressing.

I’m feeling incredibly sad this evening. I hope it’s just exhaustion, but maybe reality is beginning to nudge into view.

My DH is antipodean, perhaps it’s time to abandon my beloved homeland Sad

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IrenetheQuaint · 21/10/2018 18:18

Thanks Red.

The situation feels unpleasantly reminiscent of early 2003 to me. It is becoming increasingly obvious to everyone that Brexit is a dreadful idea, just as it was becoming increasingly obvious that invading Iraq was a dreadful idea. Hundreds of thousands of people marched against it. Every story in the news made it ever more clear that the basis for such a momentous decision was appallingly flimsy. But the momentum amongst the morons at the top was too great for them to back down.

We invaded Iraq. It turned out to be a terrible idea. We will leave the EU. That will turn out to be a terrible idea too.

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TheresAnOliveOnMyPizza · 21/10/2018 18:19

Justin marking my place. Have been reading along and hoping that actually no government would willingly walk their country into a no deal but I fear now it may happen.
What can we do to prepare?

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lolaflores · 21/10/2018 18:23

I hope the threat of DD being in no.10 is a diversionary tactic. But if it was a toss up between him and BJ...I just don't know which would be worse.
Are we rapidly approaching the barbed wire. On Steve McQueen's motorbike in t he Great escape?

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OlennasWimple · 21/10/2018 18:24

Thanks for yet another thread Red - how many has it been now??

Can anyone remember what the mood was like around the poll tax? I'm too young to recall any certainty when it became clear that a backdown was going to happen, just that eventually politicians realised that the sheer numbers of people on the streets meant that the lady had to turn.

Are we reaching that sort of tipping point?

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Icantreachthepretzels · 21/10/2018 18:27

Here's a picture of our facist right wing out on a march yesterday - just to cheer everybody up.

Just look at the crowds they can command!

Westministenders: A Change of Mood
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prettybird · 21/10/2018 18:30

Raab says that it is a choice between an extension to the transit period or the backstop arrangement for NI.

Let me get this straight Confused, the UK is threatening proposing that an extension to the transition period which is for the UK's benefit is a choice between upholding an international treaty (the GFA) or not Confused

I can see the EU is quaking in its boots Hmm

Blatant place mat king 🐟🎣👑

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borntobequiet · 21/10/2018 18:38

DD and BJ, the Ugly Sisters appear...and our government disappears in a puff of smoke. Brexit turns into a pumpkin and the Irish border into a silken thread. And we all live happily ever after.
May have been telling too many stories to grandkids.

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DGRossetti · 21/10/2018 18:39

.

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RedToothBrush · 21/10/2018 18:40

We were in town around the time the EDL were marching.

DS pointed out the red helicopter flying around the Picadilly area. We did wonder what it was for.

30 Nazis and about 60 Coppers it would appear.

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KennDodd · 21/10/2018 18:44

Thank you Red. Going to write to my MP (again) expect to get his bog standard 'people have spoken' bollocks letter back.

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SwedishEdith · 21/10/2018 18:48

I wouldn't get too excited about Johnny Mercer. He retweets Zac Goldsmith.

Westministenders: A Change of Mood
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Mrsr8 · 21/10/2018 18:50

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2018 18:50

Thanks, red 💐

There were about 3 x as many marchers as DUP voters !

May should think about how many millions of British voters she is pissing off, rather than being held to ransom by a gang of corrupt, religious throwbacks
....in a country that may not even remain in the UK for long

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MangoSplit · 21/10/2018 18:51

Place marking

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MyBrexitUnicornDied · 21/10/2018 18:58

and the DUP are already threatening to vote against it as leverage to get their own way on Brexit

What exactly is the DUPs ideal “way” on Brexit? I honestly have no clue what they want to happen.

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mybrainhurtsalot · 21/10/2018 19:01

I wrote to my MP (again), but about the march this time and the need for a People’s Vote. Also reminded her she hasn’t responded to my previous message about availability of medicines essential for my family post Brexit Angry

I have a child with health issues, who needs regular medical equipment/supplies and medication. A couple of months ago I asked the community nurse about getting essential supplies post-Brexit and whether we need to prepare for disruption. Like someone’s pharmacist on the last thread she completely rubbished the suggestion there could be any problem. She used the same argument - the NHS will be their best/one of their best customers so it’s not in their interests not to supply to us. Completely missing the point, but I didn’t bother arguing. Instead I’ve been getting my prescriptions filled as early as possible to try and build up a small buffer.

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BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2018 19:05

Talks The UK would be breaking international law if the govt tried to impose an airspace ban.

The possible grounding of international flights to / from the UK is not something the EU has done:
it would be a natural consequence of the UK no longer belonging to the organisations that allow certification of planes, new parts, pilots, airports, ships, ports etc

So retaliation would not be lawful

US flights to / from the UK would also be affected - the US has offered a much worse deal than the UK currently has, so the govt refused.

Is the UK going to ban US flights from UK airspace as well ? 🤔
Trump would throw a real tantrum

Starting trade & transport wars with much more powerful countries or trade blocs is a really bad idea when you've just exited from all your trade deals and maoin travel agreements

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lolaflores · 21/10/2018 19:07

The DUP' s only age da is to at The Dog In The Manger x 1000. If they can disrupt, they will. Why? Because for the 1st time in living memory, they can puss on loads of people's chips, at will and unrestrained. The vitriol that they were this far only able to toss about in a smaller political area has widened beyond their wildest dreams.
They don't need reason to be twats. Everything is a threat even if it isn't. Don't look for logic from them because even the wi d owing from the South is the devil farting.

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BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2018 19:20

Olennas I remember the poll tax riots very clearly
However, those riots and the fury of the peaceful members of the public happened because people very abruptly became poorer and could see the exact cause.

Therefore, many came out on the streets, with almost all the violence from those who didn't have to worry about the effect of a criminal record on their jobs.
It spread like wildfire from many sites around the country and totally dominated the news

The Tories panicked over the anarchy but also because of the anger of the majority of voters who didn't riot

I don't expect riots unless large numbers of people actually can't get food

  • which would be a really stupid govt cockup, even if there is no deal.

    Not enough people / their families affected by meds shortages to riot on their own
    and people don't riot over cancelled holidays

    Even higher food prices would only slowly grind people down - in fact there may be lower prices for several months if UK food producers can't export and hence sell to the domestic market.
    Also, rents may drop as house prices do - I was an LL for almost 30 years and I always saw this when there was a big price downturn

    Another big difference is that the poll tax was brought in by MrsT and the Tories, so they were the clearly the only cuplprits, with noone to blame for their mistakes.

    However, Brexiters have been saying for many months
  • ever since they realised it isn't "the easiest trade deal in history" - that any bad effects of Brexit will be caused by the EU, Remainers, treacherous civil service & judges etc
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OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 21/10/2018 19:24

Thanks red

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Mrsr8 · 21/10/2018 19:24

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/10/2018 19:25

MyBrexit The DUP want NI and the rest of the UK to Brexit on identical terms, so no backstop whatsoever, for any length of time.

They also want to use Brexit to smash the GFA, which they have always hated,
because they want to totally dominate the Catholics like they used to before the Troubles stopped them.
They would regard it as a great victory over the Catholics

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