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Charting our nemesis

(287 Posts)
lonelyplanetmum Fri 19-Oct-18 07:12:07

Which chart encapsulates this nightmare for you?

This is the pie chart that I showed my FIL when he was repeating Farage’s drivel. The government’s own 2016 figures showed how statistically insignificant our EU budget percentage contribution always was.

1tisILeClerc Wed 17-Apr-19 10:15:03

lonelyplanetmum
Absolutely. It is a bit like shopping at several supermarkets.
One may have cheap baked beans, another cheap bread and another cheap milk etc. Only by making a price comparison and then working out whether to buy the cheapest in each, or factor in the extra time and travel to go to all 3, or get more expensive at say 1 supermarket.
With Brexit however, so far no one has suggested HOW anything will actually be better for the UK. Until trade deals are actually ratified, they are worthless. IMPORTANTLY, with the WA NOT signed, trade deals cannot be concluded with anybody. Due to WTO rules ALL interested parties in any 'deal' have to be involved and unsurprisingly the EU is involved with most aspects so bringing it back to the situation that the WA, as bad as it might be, has to be signed.
The EU can veto future trade deals with the USA and other countries.

LeaveOrRemain Wed 17-Apr-19 10:15:50

Only three of these are MPs. They are not leading economists

If leading economists can predict the future with certainty why are they not the richest people on the planet? Surely they would know when the economy was going to go up or down and place their money accordingly? How many leading economists forecast the Stock Market crash in October 1987? Where were the warnings about the 2007 world financial crisis? Where were the warnings about property crashes in the UK? The list could go on and on.

As posted earlier may be those who voted leave did so for reasons other than money? Freedom to choose might be considered to be richer than what is in their bank accounts?

As for going through OBS and ONS data do you really think the voters did that before 23 June 2016? No chance. They will have voted on the arguments presented by both leave and remain and their own interpretation of whether being in the EU is good or bad.

The entire argument can be summarized as follows:

Those that voted leave think UK will be better off after leaving EU.

Those that voted remain think the UK will be worse off after leaving the EU.

However, which way people voted they are not entitled to say to those who voted differently:

"My understanding is superior to yours therefore you voted incorrectly and therefore must change your vote in the future"

1tisILeClerc Wed 17-Apr-19 10:17:56

The WA is like quicksand. The UK put itself into it by triggering A50 and what the UK does not appreciate is that ONLY the EU can get the UK out (by signing the WA).

1tisILeClerc Wed 17-Apr-19 10:25:02

{As posted earlier may be those who voted leave did so for reasons other than money? Freedom to choose might be considered to be richer than what is in their bank accounts?}

Unfortunately money is rather important in modern life, especially if you want to eat and have a roof over your head. NOTHING so far spouted by any politicians will significantly improve the lives of the vast majority in the UK.

{My understanding is superior to yours therefore you voted incorrectly and therefore must change your vote in the future}.

I am happy that leavers did not vote in a sensible way, It is democratic, but in return for this they lose the right to bellyache when the UK heads towards a depression, which will have the knock on effect of making life harder for everyone, especially the less well off.

lonelyplanetmum Wed 17-Apr-19 10:31:03

To make this boiled down position accurate the words in italics^^ must be added:

Those that voted remain think the UK will be worse off after leaving the EU.

Those that voted leave either think UK will be better off after leaving the EU )^against the^ majority of evidence) or they are prepared to accept that being worse off is a price worth paying.

LeaveOrRemain Wed 17-Apr-19 10:35:53

I am happy that leavers did not vote in a sensible way

In their eyes they did vote sensible. I stand by my point that everyone has the right choose how they vote and they do not have to explain it to others. Nobody has the right to think their reasons for their choice of vote are superior to those who voted differently.

but in return for this they lose the right to bellyache when the UK heads towards a depression, which will have the knock on effect of making life harder for everyone, especially the less well off

If people decide they voted wrongly in the past they are entitled to vote differently in the future as happens in General Elections. UK has been alternating between Conservative and Labour for as long as I can remember.

LeaveOrRemain Wed 17-Apr-19 10:45:30

against the^ majority of evidence) or they are prepared to accept that being worse off is a price worth paying

Can't add caveats. The ballot paper was a simple Leave or Remain choice.

I don't remember the ballot paper saying

"only choose leave if you have read all the OBS and ONS reports an all other reports by leading economists. Also be aware that if you choose leave you are guaranteed to be worse off than if you choose remain"

The booklet that was sent to every UK household was meant to explain to people the disadvantages of voting leave, but it did not work. Obviously many dismissed it as Project Fear. Maybe on the basis that "if the Government thinks is best to remain then there is something in it for them, but not the average person in the street. So let's vote leave?

People voted how they felt on the day based on what they had seen and heard before 23 June 2016. All these alleged expert reports that say UK is doomed are likely been dismissed as more Project Fear being spread by those who dislike the result, even though it was a majority all be it small.

1tisILeClerc Wed 17-Apr-19 11:15:22

LeaveOrRemain

More typical 'weasel words' from a 'leave' promoter.
If you voted leave you have DELIBERATELY buggered up my families life. That is unforgivable.
In a normal election, yes things can be reviewed after 4 years and a change of government perhaps, but the process of leaving and possibly rejoining the EU will take 15 to 20 years at least.
What is even worse is that NO ONE is going to get what they voted for.

lonelyplanetmum Wed 17-Apr-19 11:16:24

Yes Leaveor I agree.

I also don't remember the ballot paper saying "only choose leave if you have read all the OBS and ONS reports an all other reports by leading economists. Also be aware that if you choose leave you are guaranteed to be worse off than if you choose remain"

It should have said this.
The reports weren't available then of course. Neither were the studies available when Art 50 was triggered.

But hey ho - we voted for a pig in a poke, and on we go, albeit a little more slowly.

LeaveOrRemain Wed 17-Apr-19 11:24:29

If you voted leave you have DELIBERATELY buggered up my families life

In can vote whichever way I wish based on what I think is best for myself and my family. As can you.

What is even worse is that NO ONE is going to get what they voted for

That’s correct as it is not possible to please everyone at same time. Trying to do so is a waste of time which is why UK is floundering around jumping from one extension to another.

Would a second referendum improve the situation? I think not as likely to be close like the previous referendum.

My best guess is that EU will not be prepared to grant extensions forever and a no deal will happen by default.

lonelyplanetmum Wed 17-Apr-19 11:25:56

Oh and Leavor the material I linked to aren't alleged reports.. It is the government's own studies endorsed by the vast majority of experienced economists. You can dismiss experts if you like but I'd prefer experienced economists insights based on data over the rhetoric of JRM, Raab and Farage who you preferred upthread.

I have linked to at least 10 links about the government figures. It is disingenuous of anyone to say these calculations are merely alleged.

As I've pointed out - it as a far better argument to state that despite the damage to the economy for you leaving the trading bloc is a price worth paying.

People like LeClerc who are personally affected and those reliant on food banks,social care, And the NHS will have a different view about the price they are prepared to pay.

lucyinthefry Wed 17-Apr-19 11:42:30

Please don't bring food banks into it. Poverty for working people is due to the very low wages that employers have been able to get away with thanks to the ability to recruit from extremely low wage economies like Hungary. Google "Greencore Northampton Hungary" for an egregious example of a common strategy.

This is why Farage's slogan "the minimum wage has become the maximise wage" resonated with so many people. You call him a disaster capitalist. What would you call Mr Coveney at Greencore?

LeaveOrRemain Wed 17-Apr-19 11:49:01

The reports weren't available then of course. Neither were the studies available when Art 50 was triggered

Why not? Surely when Cameron promised a referendum if he won the 2015 election he would have sought advice from the leading economists? Or was he sufficiently arrogant to assume that the vote would be a remain landslide?

Vote was 23 June 2016. Article 50 triggered 29 March 2017, 9 months later. Could T May not have tasked the leading economists to prepare reports that forecast with certainty that Brexit guaranteed UK would be worse off? Remember T May is a remain supporter. Would have thought she would have jumped at any opportunity to say that Article 50 should not be triggered?

Windowsareforcheaters Wed 17-Apr-19 11:52:13

In can vote whichever way I wish based on what I think is best for myself and my family. As can you

Of course you can. However, the result of your vote was to bugger up someone's family life.

The two are not mutually exclusive.

lonelyplanetmum Wed 17-Apr-19 12:01:24

Surely when Cameron promised a referendum if he won the 2015 election he would have sought advice from the leading economists?

Yes he could.

Or was he sufficiently arrogant to assume that the vote would be a remain landslide?

Yes he was.

1tisILeClerc Wed 17-Apr-19 12:06:41

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515068/why-the-government-believes-that-voting-to-remain-in-the-european-union-is-the-best-decision-for-the-uk.pdf

{The Government believes that voting to remain in the European Union is the best decision for the UK.Protecting jobs A stronger economy Providing security The EU referendum is a once in a generation decision. The Government believes it is in you and your family’s best interests that the UK remains in the European Union. Vote on Thursday, 23rd June 2016.}

So which part of this government leaflet was too difficult to understand?
In the 3 years since this was sent out, the economy has faltered, thousands of jobs have been lost and the benefits of being in the EU are about to be lost.
Further, foodbank use has ballooned, the NHS has gone deeper into crisis and there is no sign of any recovery apart from the 'blip' being caused by stockpiling.

LeaveOrRemain Wed 17-Apr-19 12:10:18

The two are not mutually exclusive

That’s correct as it is another example of equilibrium. For every advantage there is a corresponding equal disadvantage. For every winner there has to be a loser.

During the times Labour was in power I was worse off than had conservatives remained in power, but as an individual I had to accept the result.

lonelyplanetmum Wed 17-Apr-19 12:13:19

Poverty for working people is due to the very low wages that employers have been able to get away with thanks to the ability to recruit from extremely low wage economies like Hungary

No - this is a myth.

The available research is very complex

The predominant finding is that that there is little effect on the wages of the UK-born resulting from migration.

Any declines in wages if any are greatest for resident workers who are themselves migrants.

There are some studies that suggested immigration affected the lowest-waged workers negatively. But the reports vary on whether EU immigration has been good or bad for wages across the country overall.

In some areas migrants increase wages as they are spending money and boost the economy.

Most studies show that the negative effect on wages is small,short-term and effects other migrants.

However all studies are clear that looking at the economy as a whole EU migrants contribute far more than native born people and more than non EU migrants.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1542-4774.2011.01049.x

lonelyplanetmum Wed 17-Apr-19 12:15:40

I can vote whichever way I wish based on what I think is best for myself and my family. As can you

Or we can vote for what is best for the country as a whole including others less fortunate than ourselves.

LeaveOrRemain Wed 17-Apr-19 12:53:36

Or we can vote for what is best for the country as a whole including others less fortunate than ourselves

Not possible to please everyone. The majority vote was to leave (all be it a small majority) so that is the way forward.

If someone can produce a law or statute or a case law that states minority opinion takes priority overt majority opinion I would be curious to read it.

Windowsareforcheaters Wed 17-Apr-19 13:20:46

If someone can produce a law or statute or a case law that states minority opinion takes priority overt majority opinion I would be curious to read it

Minority rights and how to protect them are a big deal in political science. Several political thinkers are concerned that we are seeing what is referred to as the tyranny of the majority. This is an inherent weakness in most democracies so checks and balances are unusually in place to prevent this happening.

However, due to the uncodified nature of our constitution it has happened.

Democracy, or good democracy, is much more complicated and nuanced than biggest always wins.

lonelyplanetmum Wed 17-Apr-19 13:34:06

Not possible to please everyone.

The majority view has now shifted ..

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/has-there-been-a-shift-in-support-for-brexit/

lonelyplanetmum Wed 17-Apr-19 19:06:30

There was some discussion of the economic models of Brexit scenarios upthread. This made me realise that not many graphic depiction of the outcomes have been posted. Here's one:

lonelyplanetmum Wed 17-Apr-19 19:08:46

And another containing the original Chequers agreement which can be ignored but the other percentages remain valid.

lucyinthefry Wed 17-Apr-19 22:04:40

A company like Greencore that hires Hungarians to work nightshifts in a freezing factory in Northampton increases UK GDP.
If they close down there will be job losses and UK GDP will go down. But I won't lament. The CEO gets 3.6 million and the workers get minimum wage subsidised by in work benefits paid for by ordinary taxpayers. Greencore is an influential company. The CEO is brother to a senior Irish politician. His data will be in those lovely bar charts ... which are pure speculation. They refer to an unknown future.
Sorry to bang on about Greencore by the way. It's just that it epitomises everything I loath about the rapacious EU multinationals that contribute to the data in your charts.

lucyinthefry Wed 17-Apr-19 22:11:06

I like the comment from Theresa May on the red chart. What does she know about trade or economics or prosperity?

Those charts are frightening to you. To me they are meaningless speculation. The future is unknown and full of change. All I know is that we will be more agile outside of the EU.

lucyinthefry Wed 17-Apr-19 22:18:36

Also GDP is meaningless. GDP per capita is more meaningful.
A rapacious EU multinational like Greencore increases GDP. Greencore, who hire Hungarians to work for the minimum wage in Northampton - subsidised by in work benefits paid for by ordinary tax payers - while the CEO earns 3.6 million.
If they closed GDP would fall but I would not lament the loss. Those charts contain data supplied by companies like that.

lonelyplanetmum Wed 17-Apr-19 23:37:06

. Chart showing the global agility we had ( past tense) from trade agreements around the world thanks to our leading role in the EU.

lonelyplanetmum Wed 17-Apr-19 23:43:58

I'm not sure why individual criticisms of one large Irish convenience food company have crept into a thread for charts. Probably best to start your own thread about any individual company.

Until we voted to ditch our membership of an extremely lucrative trading bloc we had trade deals covering most of the globe and unrestricted access to trade with millions of international companies.

If there’s concern about the practices of any one multinational company surely the US ones are more concerning.

Trump’s biggest donor of course was Robert Mercer ( worth $ 900 million +) . His interference ranged from the far-right toxic Brietbart to funding interference into British politics. More worrying than one Irish food company imo.

LeaveOrRemain Thu 18-Apr-19 01:31:23

Democracy, or good democracy, is much more complicated and nuanced than biggest always wins

Fairest way is to act upon the majority. If someone can explain why minority opinion should prevail over majority I am interested to hear. If correct then why is it that in general elections the party with the least number of votes is not placed in power?

LeaveOrRemain Thu 18-Apr-19 01:35:53

whatukthinks.org/eu/has-there-been-a-shift-in-support-for-brexit

Reading this suggests that if there was another vote the result might be

52% remain

48 leave

A reversal of the 2016 result. However, I have the following questions:

If 52% leave is not considered the will of the people how can 52% remain be considered the will of the people?

Why would 52% remain be considered binding in a second vote, but 52% leave in the 2016 vote not be considered binding?

If the outcome of a second referendum is 52% remain and 48% leave should there not be a 3rd referendum?

lonelyplanetmum Thu 18-Apr-19 07:24:31

. Can we keep this thread for charts please. Happy for you to start a separate thread for debating the issues the charts illustrate.

lonelyplanetmum Thu 18-Apr-19 07:35:43

In the last quarter 41% thought the Leave vote was correct and 47% believed it was wrong (Yougov)
The problem is both politicians and people don’t know what to do next.

I agree we need more consensus. A huge change to our economy and trading relationships needs a greater percentage of people to actively support it (and a solution for NI).

If both the timing was right and the benefits of the change were clear then there would be greater unanimity. There wasn't and still isn't.

At least with the pre 2016 status quo the trading relationship was something people can and did tolerate. It's the fall back position until greater consensus is reached on something else.

As the previous chart shows before the ref fewer than 6 per cent of those polled cared about the EU anyway.

What we need is more consensus.

https://www.seedsforchange.org.uk/consensus

1tisILeClerc Thu 18-Apr-19 07:38:26

{Sorry to bang on about Greencore by the way. It's just that it epitomises everything I loath about the rapacious EU multinationals that contribute to the data in your charts.}
This is exactly what the UK has been doing for centuries, manipulating the markets and workers. Now it is 'foreign' companies that have bought out UK companies (giving the owners a lot of money).
The UK is getting a taste of it's own medicine.

Sorry Lonely, I have no chart for this, maybe a picture of a cat eating a mouse would suffice?

1tisILeClerc Thu 18-Apr-19 07:48:32

Britons (and the population of the UK) have always been mongrels so 'demonising' anyone is simply wrong.
Do you think that the UK is being 'persecuted' by the EU? When the UK ruled nearly half the planet, how do you think this was achieved? It was by killing, torturing and stealing, the same way as most empires are 'built'.

lonelyplanetmum Thu 18-Apr-19 08:42:03

Good point LeClerc.

Wasn’t the ‘honourable’ East India Company the genesis of multinationals?

An English company that ended up taking control of the Indian subcontinent, parts of South East Asia and Hong Kong. This lead to empire, globalisation and of course the non EU immigration over the last century.

It’s shifted today though- it’s the US companies that have a vice like political influence and aspiration. The statistics for the political influence and expenditure of the Koch brothers and the Mercers are mind blowing.

1tisILeClerc Thu 18-Apr-19 09:00:58

The UK won't be a 'partner' with the USA when it leaves, it will be treated like Puerto Rico as a remote 51st(?) state.
The UK simply doesn't have sufficient resources to be a major player on it's own, certainly not being in full control. Being part of the EU where the life expectations are broadly similar and being a strong influence at the 'top table' means a lot more than some give credit to.

prettybird Thu 18-Apr-19 09:24:53

These two charts of Foreign Direct Investment are an interesting contrast. They don't suggest that the UK is "open for business" in the eyes of the world, compared to Germany ( in the EU)

Clavinova Thu 18-Apr-19 09:52:06

lonelyplanetmum
The majority view has now shifted

The shift to Remain is too reliant on people who did not vote in the 2016 referendum...

Copied from your link;

"Nobody should assert on the basis of the analysis in this blog that it is now clear that the outcome of a second referendum would be different from that of the first."

"Given the potential difficulties that faces all polling, the Remain lead is both too narrow and too reliant on the views of those who did not vote in June 2016 (who might or might not vote in another ballot) for anything other than caution to be the order of the day."

"Even if the polls are entirely accurate, such a narrow lead might still be overturned if Leave were to fight the better campaign–as they are widely adjudged to have done in 2016."

Clavinova Thu 18-Apr-19 09:55:25

These two charts of Foreign Direct Investment are an interesting contrast. They don't suggest that the UK is "open for business" in the eyes of the world

Well, that's obvious - nobody knows if we are leaving the EU or not - indecision is the enemy of investment.

lonelyplanetmum Thu 18-Apr-19 09:56:27

Yay - charts.

Very interesting to compare the first ONS chart post referendum with the second Deutsche bank one.

Mistigri Thu 18-Apr-19 10:06:05

Nice chart from the Institute for Government on the time taken to conclude trade agreements vs the Brexit transition period.

lonelyplanetmum Thu 18-Apr-19 10:06:43

Hmmm why have Clav/Lucy and Leavor have suddenly started numerous posts on my quiet slow moving chart thread.

Anyone would think facts were a threat. Numerous studies show facts are fairly irrelevant anyway!

lonelyplanetmum Thu 18-Apr-19 10:09:24

Blimey thanks for that one Mistigri

Daunting to think we are at the start of the process.

Clavinova Thu 18-Apr-19 10:18:30

lonelyplanetmum
Very interesting to compare the first ONS chart post referendum with the second Deutsche bank one.

Feb 2019;

“The start of the German economy into 2019 has been a major disappointment so far,” Deutsche Bank economists including Sebastian Becker wrote in a report on Tuesday."

“The development of several key cyclical indicators is telling us that the German economy is drifting towards recession right now.”

"The warning from Germany’s biggest bank comes just days after Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said economic weakness carried into 2019 and will result in significantly lower growth than predicted just a few weeks ago.The government in Berlin also recently cut its 2019 outlook almost in half and IHS Markit’s January survey showed manufacturing in Germany shrank for the first time in four years."

Clavinova Thu 18-Apr-19 10:24:16

"Hmmm why have Clav/Lucy and Leavor have suddenly started numerous posts on my quiet slow moving chart thread."

No idea who Lucy and Leavor are - but you and I have been sparring on and off for months. It is the school holidays by the way - I am allowed some time off with the sprogs...

Mistigri Thu 18-Apr-19 10:31:21

This is a nice map which kind of helps to explain the leave vote in northern England - lack of infrastructure investment by the U.K. govt means that it is poorly connected to other parts of the U.K. and Europe.

It takes 2 hours to get from Bordeaux to Paris (600km), 3 hours to get from Newcastle to London (450km).

Clavinova Thu 18-Apr-19 10:32:30

Just read the posts by lucyinthefry - she clearly knows more about economics than me (and you obviously). smile

Mistigri Thu 18-Apr-19 10:37:31

she clearly knows more about economics

And yet she does not understand multipliers. (This is not even A level economics).

Mistigri Thu 18-Apr-19 10:39:37

Not a chart, but a visual and thoroughly European depiction of the relationship between Mr Farage and the BBC wink

Clavinova Thu 18-Apr-19 11:06:47

Mistigri

I've always enjoyed political cartoons - is the Cartoon Museum still in Convent Garden?

Some people don't like them;

MEPs censor anti-EU cartoons from European Parliament exhibition

"Anti-EU cartoons about Brexit and the Greek crisis have been censored from an exhibition in the European Parliament by MEPs, sparking a row over free speech in Brussels."

"Catherine Bearder, the Liberal Democrats’ only MEP, blocked 12 of 28 cartoons by Greek and French cartoonists submitted for display in Brussels next week to mark the 60th anniversary years of the signing of the Treaty of Rome."

"Most of the cartoons criticise the EU and Germany’s handling of the Greek crisis.One showing EU leaders on a plane with Britain outside chopping off the wing also fell foul of the euro-censors."

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/18/meps-censor-anti-eu-cartoons-european-parliament-exhibition/

European Parliament censors exhibition of political cartoons

www.neweurope.eu/article/european-parliament-censors-exhibition-political-cartoons/

Mistigri Thu 18-Apr-19 11:36:48

Not a chart, but a visual and thoroughly European depiction of the relationship between Mr Farage and the BBC

This new chart should be read alongside my Farage cartoon, which appears to have gone over the heads of some (I suppose MFL teaching isn't what it once was grin).

Robbie Gibb is currently director of communications at 10 Downing St, and was previously head of BBC Westminster. When the conservative MP Nick Boles resigned recently, he wrote that:

I am no longer a member of the Conservative Party. So I can be blunt where previously I might have been discreet. The PM’s head of communications Robbie Gibb is a hard Brexiter who wants to destroy the PM’s new search for a cross party compromise.

Someone has now analysed Gibb's twitter posts between 2009 and the present, the results are presented in graphical form for your delectation.

1tisILeClerc Thu 18-Apr-19 11:49:37

{I suppose MFL teaching isn't what it once was}
I am very disappointed that since I learned a little French at school 40 years ago, I have never seen a Frenchman wearing a stripey jumper and a beret, riding a bike with a string of onions around his neck.
On the other hand, 'rosbif' seems to have turned into gammon. (A photo of Cameron or in fact many male politicians rather than a chart.)

LeaveOrRemain Fri 19-Apr-19 06:37:37

Anyone would think facts were a threat

The fact that more people voted leave than remain is no threat to me. Biggest threat to the average person in the street in UK is the inability of government to implement the result. Two years of floundering around and what was the outcome? An extension from 29 March to 12 April followed by a further extension to 31 October 2019.

Businesses both in UK and the other EU Countries must be going crazy as they can't plan ahead. Some reports have estimated that UK has lost up to 100 Million per day since the referendum. Staggering sums if correct.

Can't see the WA as it is currently drafted being accepted by MP's as is has already been voted down twice by large margins. Can't see EU changing the WA either. So if UK is not careful they could end up with no deal by default unless EU agrees to extensions forever. Can't see that happening either. So if the figure of 100 Million per day is correct UK will lose more per day than what UK pays into the EU which is 50 Million per day gross before the rebate. After the rebate the net amount is about 35 Million.

Spending 100 Million to save 35 Million does not make much sense. So UK government needs to get a move on as at end of the day it is the UK taxpayer that is being nailed.

lonelyplanetmum Fri 19-Apr-19 07:16:26

Thanks for keeping my little old thread active LeaveOr. Yes I agree that Brexit is leeching millions from our economy and will continue to do so.

I disagree that this means we should get on with it. If the timing was right there'd be an increased Parliamentary and national consensus.

lonelyplanetmum Fri 19-Apr-19 07:26:18

.

lonelyplanetmum Fri 19-Apr-19 07:42:58

Wage increases have not to matched the start of price rises.
Household real incomes been falling since the referendum.
•The savings ratio -- -- measuring the proportion of national income that is not spent dropped to its lowest rate for more than 50 years.
•The household sector has moved into a net financial deficit- borrowing more than it is saving for the first time in 30 years....

lonelyplanetmum Fri 19-Apr-19 07:44:48

.

lonelyplanetmum Fri 19-Apr-19 07:51:01

Stock markets of comparable (developed) economies have risen 28 per cent since the referendum. Compared to our trend starting fall to 6 per cent over the same period,

This devaluation of UK assets.shown in the previous graph.

1tisILeClerc Fri 19-Apr-19 07:56:12

Yet again, the WA will be signed, one way or another.
Read what Mr Barnier says.
'The WA will not be reopened'.
'The EU will not commence trade negotiations until after the WA is signed'.
Mr Barnier and the leaders of 27 countries are standing firm behind these two statements and have done since early December last year.
The EU have been very polite about this, and have offered countless words and actions to help the UK but there is an iron fist behind this at the end of the day so the quicker the HoC/HoL/cabinet get to grips with this reality the better.
A true 'no deal' is not that 'nothing happens' but without the WA being signed a lot of VERY bad and painful things will happen.

lonelyplanetmum Fri 19-Apr-19 08:27:01

a lot of VERY bad and painful things will happen

Agreed. The trends shown on the charts in this thread show only the start of those painful things.

But as our esteemed leader says the people voted for that pain. At least she now admits it.

Mistigri Fri 19-Apr-19 08:34:33

Stock markets are not necessarily a great proxy for economic growth, although the FTSE 250 is better than the FTSE 100.

Larger U.K. companies like my FTSE 100 employer tend to receive a lot of their income from overseas, because most of these companies (despite what brexiters would have you believe) already do substantial amounts of business in the USA, China etc. My employer has multiple US production sites (and has had them many years), we now have several Chinese sites too. Profits from these operations flow back to the U.K. but they do not show up in export stats, because it does not make commercial sense to ship these products halfway round the world when your customers want local suppliers inside regional just-in-time supply chains.

LeaveOrRemain Fri 19-Apr-19 08:36:15

But as our esteemed leader says the people voted for that pain

Because they are entitled to vote how they choose. If at a later date the voters think they have made a bad decision they can vote to rejoin the EU.

LeaveOrRemain Fri 19-Apr-19 08:42:37

Stock markets are not necessarily a great proxy for economic growth, although the FTSE 250 is better than the FTSE 100

True. Did the World go bankrupt after the Stock Market crash in October 1987? UK GDP per capita was not affected at all and increased between 1986 and 1990.

Mistigri Fri 19-Apr-19 08:46:16

People have to be given a choice between concrete outcomes. I don't think a tense situation is helped by offering them a choice (no deal) that sane people know is not capable of being implemented.

LeaveOrRemain Fri 19-Apr-19 08:56:42

concrete outcomes

They don't exist. Nobody on the planet can predict the future with certainty. If they could they would be the richest people on the planet as they would know exactly when and when not to invest.

that sane people know is not capable of being implemented

Former BOE Governor Mervyn King thinks no deal is possible. Guess that makes him insane?

People are entitled to vote how they choose. If at a later date the voters think they have made a bad decision they can vote again.

Mistigri Fri 19-Apr-19 09:01:57

Former BOE Governor Mervyn King thinks no deal is possible. Guess that makes him insane?

It certainly gives cause to wonder if some sort of cognitive impairment is setting in.

LeaveOrRemain Fri 19-Apr-19 09:10:03

impairment

If someone votes differently to others how does that represent impairment? I don't remember the ballot paper saying that if you choose leave it is acknowledgement that you are impaired

People are entitled to vote how they choose. If at a later date the voters think they have made a bad decision they can vote again.

Mistigri Fri 19-Apr-19 09:19:13

Not at all. I can understand, I think, some of the (non-racist) arguments for Brexit put forward by people like Oliver Norgrove and Roland Smith and Ben Kelly among others (all have recanted, by the way).

But there can be some good arguments in favour of something but no political or practical path to achieving it. In this case, the issue is not U.K. policy, but the foreign policy, trade and security imperatives of other states. No deal doesn't work because the people you will need to cooperate in order to make it work - most of whom are outside the U.K. and have their own agendas - will simply not play ball with you.

The US for a start; I shared this elsewhere but it's worth posting here too. It's a twitter thread by Peter Foster of the Daily Telegraph, not a paper noted for its pro-remain stance, about the geopolitical context for the Irish Border and what that means for future US relations in a no-deal context.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1118456412919693312.html

Mistigri Fri 19-Apr-19 09:20:48

Basically, if you want Brexit: support May's deal (I don't support it but if Brexit is important to you, then you should). If you don't want Brexit at all, then support remain or no deal.

1tisILeClerc Fri 19-Apr-19 09:27:56

{ If you don't want Brexit at all, then support remain or no deal.}

With a 'no deal' the WA still has to be signed BEFORE the EU will enter any significant negotiations.
Thus the the 3 choices are: Revoke, WA, or eventually WA but kicking and screaming.

LeaveOrRemain Fri 19-Apr-19 09:27:59

most of whom are outside the U.K. and have their own agendas - will simply not play ball with you

Yes they will, but terms may not be a great as UK thought.

The Irish Border is a relevant point and I am surprised it was not researched by Cameron before he agreed to have a referendum in he won in 2015. Obviously he was certain that remain would win easily as he is a remain supporter.

Also would have though T May would have researched it too before triggering Article 50, but looks like she did not. She too is a remainer?

So from that do we conclude that bad judgment by two remain supporting Prime Ministers is the reason for the mess UK is now in?

prettybird Fri 19-Apr-19 09:31:06

Not sure if this chart has already been posted.

Mistigri Fri 19-Apr-19 09:32:35

So from that do we conclude that bad judgment by two remain supporting Prime Ministers is the reason for the mess UK is now in?

Their judgement was very poor, but to reluctantly give her credit, May has negotiated a Brexit deal (the only Brexit deal on offer) which provides for the only solution to the Irish border problem that takes GB out of both the customs union and single market.

You can Brexit on May's terms, you can Brexit to an as-yet-to-be-negotiated Norway+ type position, or you can not Brexit at all.

Those are the choices. If push comes to shove, the EU and the US will both line up on the side of Ireland.

lonelyplanetmum Fri 19-Apr-19 15:05:27

Thank you for that chart pretty. It's an absolute classic that has been missed I think.

Mistigri your point about both the Solidarity between both the EU and US with Ireland is so pertinent. It's one of those 'can't see the woods for the trees' points that is often missed in our press I think. If you read Irish news you get a very different feeling. The ref has pitted us against Ireland and ( understandably) the world is more lined up on their side.

We have isolated ourselves from everyone but, of course, that's what we wanted.

lonelyplanetmum Sat 20-Apr-19 07:27:15

From 26.03.19

1tisILeClerc Sat 20-Apr-19 07:56:13

lonelyplanetmum
I find this chart a bit depressing as it seems to indicate that there is no strong support for being IN the EU.
With 3 years of mass publicity, but allowing for a fair degree of boredom, to me it suggests that the 'Remain' followers have a LOT of work to do.
With the likes of Farage and the UKIP parties, yes they say they want to leave, but seem to have 'leaving' as their end point, and not saying that it is just the starting point for a 'Greater UK' with any form of plan attached for how it might be brought about.
If you decide to go for a day out to the seaside, you plan with buckets, spades, suncream and sandwiches, but I don't see any forward planning apart from the goal of 'leaving'.

ToLeaveOrToRemain Mon 22-Apr-19 09:03:12

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

Mistigri Mon 22-Apr-19 10:47:14

Latest EP election polling. Not all polls have ChUK or Brex yet.

Re the previous post: health warning, possible PBP.

lonelyplanetmum Mon 22-Apr-19 17:02:18

Thank you Mistigri.

TalkinPaece Sat 27-Apr-19 16:17:35

Not a chart,
just a whole page of charts, some about Brexit some not
www.economist.com/graphic-detail/
and the articles on here often contain good charts
www.economist.com/britain/
I get the print edition

lonelyplanetmum Sun 28-Apr-19 05:12:03

Thank you Talk

SleightOfMind Sun 26-May-19 00:56:48

This is interesting.
Increase in turnout between the 2014 vote and 2019, plotted against how councils voted in 2016.
Remainy areas showing the biggest increase in GOTV.

lonelyplanetmum Sun 26-May-19 11:54:33

Thank you Sleight interesting- well we will know later tonight.

I see Gibraltar and the Isles of Scilly are out on extreme limbs there! I feel there is some profound verity that is revealed by those small island communities that is equally applicable to us in a diluted form. However I'm not quite sure what!

lonelyplanetmum Tue 28-May-19 07:34:33

Contrary to what you see in the media on the number crunching if a people's vote were run with the same choices as the 2016 referendum the result would have been:

•Remain: 55.3%
•Leave: 44.7%

That's a 2.3 million lead to Remain. The Remain bloc won 9.3 million votes while the Leave was 7 million.

https://www.businessinsider.com/european-election-results-uk-regrets-brexit-votes-remain-2019-5

lonelyplanetmum Thu 20-Jun-19 08:26:33

.

lonelyplanetmum Sat 12-Oct-19 19:08:40

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