Canada +++

[bridgetoc]

We must tread with caution with regards to anything Tusk says. However, it appears that Canada +++ is very much on the table, unlike what remainer PM May has suggested. It's been there since the start according to Tusk.

What a nightmare it must be for The PM. It's one thing if the Brexiteers are asking for it, but so are the E.U.........

The Remainers will try their best to sweep this under the carpet.......

[SusanWalker]

Although Canada +++ has always been on the table as long as N Ireland remains in the customs union and we put the border in the Irish sea. The brexiteers want no border between us and the EU, but Canada +++ as well. Canada means a harder border legally. That's why TM can't agree to it because of the DUP. I mean she would if she could. I don't like the woman but even i don't think she would rather have chequers than Canada just to make her life more difficult and to piss everyone off.

Oh and there's the added problem that Canada would likely prove too hard for the car industry.

[1tisILeClerc]

At this point any deal that is better than crashing out or enforcing a hard border between NI and Ireland is good.
While the DUP object to a 'border in the sea' because it creates differences between NI and the UK, there are already differences.

[1tisILeClerc]

Unless JIT delivery and tariffs are 'harmonised' the industries like car assembly will leave as it is not profitable.

[MyBrexitUnicornDied]

I’m a remainer. If Canada +++ allows for no boarder between NI and Ireland. And it allows for JIT delivery I’m all for it.

Does Canada +++ do that?

[LouiseCollins28]

@1tisLeClerc
The DUP object to a ‘border in the sea’ because they are a Unionist party, the clue is in the name! They are simply defending the constitutional status of Northern Ireland as part of the United Kingdom.

“There are differences” in the sense that Northern Ireland has (had!) a devolved assembly and administration which has certain competencies. Northern Ireland is no less a part of the UK than England, Wales or Scotland.

[Mistigri]

If this surprises anyone they have not been paying attention for the past 18 months. Google Barnier's staircase slide. Nothing has changed.

Canada requires the Irish backstop and essentially cuts the UK out of European just-in-time supply chains. If that's what you want, knock yourself out! ~Gallic shrug from a safe place on other side of channel~

[Peregrina]

Northern Ireland is no less a part of the UK than England, Wales or Scotland.

With some major differences, from having had a Civil War described as 'The Troubles' - hence the GFA, and other things like, not having the same Abortion Laws as Great Britain. I really wouldn't like to guess how May would have behaved if she'd not squandered her majority - but I suspect a border in the Irish Sea would have been OK with her.

[7salmonswimming]

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-options/stairway-to-brexit-barnier-maps-out-uks-canadian-path-idUKKBN1ED23R

[bellinisurge]

I agree that I don't really care what kind of deal we get. As long as we get a deal. Rather than a no deal nightmare.
My preferred option of not leaving is gone.
If it works? Great. You were right and I was wrong. Nobody struggles to get food and N Ireland moves onward to prosperity. I soooooowant to be wrong. Because if I am right, we are screwed.

[MyBrexitUnicornDied]

I soooooowant to be wrong

This a 1000 times. If I’m a years times we’ve left and everything is fine I’ll hold my hand up and admit it - I’ll be happy to.

[1tisILeClerc]

Anything other than being in the CU, SM and having freedom of movement kills my job instantly.

[Daddybegood]

Unfortunately you are not the only one Leclerc. I reckon from announcements that Ellesmere Port, west Midlands, Sunderland etc all lose about 30-40k jobs each, not overnight but within a short time period. As Carlos Ghosh said at the Paris motor show ..."we are making plans" but he couldnt say what they were or he would be accused of "trying to scare people". In the medium term all the specialised manfacturers requiring JIT will be either gone or going but Patrick Minford (ERG economist) thinks this is good. The financial sector could easily lose 200k jobs in the medium term and the pharma industry is likely to lose the same as the EU have told relocating companies that it must be management and substantial operations not just a nameplate. Looks like they may throw the DUP under a bus to get a deal (one possible positive perhaps) but will likely lead to a re-iarming of loyalist paramilitaries and fuelling Scottish demands for similar preferential treatment in a CU/SM. Tax rises in the upcoming budget, £12 billion of budget cuts next year to be implemented, £40billion divorce bill for a much worse deal than we have.....and immigration could well rise with cheaper labour from India, Africa and China, creating an underclass of low skilled British workers seeking benefits and dying younger but will be told next year to 'get on their bikes'.....this shitshow is just getting started

[Bearbehind]

but I suspect a border in the Irish Sea would have been OK with her.

No suspecting required - she proposed it then got her arse handed to her on a plate by the DUP so had to back track.

[TokyoSushi]

Could somebody explain, in fairly simple terms what Canada +++ is?

[Bearbehind]

I agree that I don't really care what kind of deal we get. As long as we get a deal. Rather than a no deal nightmare. My preferred option of not leaving is gone.

Don't give up yet - it's all or nothing now so effectively not leaving is still an option.

I was always convinced no deal could never happen because the grown ups wouldn't press the button but I hadn't taken into account the fact TM is a sociopath who would destroy the country to get her own back if anyone dents her pride.

I still don't think it will happen but admit there is a chance.

The most likely option is still BINO though because leaving SM/CU either in a deal or as part of no deal, isn't going to work because of the border issue and JIT.

[Quietrebel]

The All In or All Out thread in aibu shows clear support for remain. There are a few no deal leavers who argue MN is liberal elite HQ but I do think the overall population doesn't want a no deal outcome and -given the chance- would pull the plug on this mess. Polls showing a small remain lead still present a deal as a possibility (aka life as we know it) which means many remainers and soft leavers are hesitant to question the principle of brexit. However faced a completely crazy outcome (aka brexaggedon) that argument ceases to be so compelling.

[1tisILeClerc]

{Polls showing a small remain lead still present a deal as a possibility (aka life as we know it)}
Unfortunately 'life as we know it' will end on 29 March, whatever happens. The slide into 'horribleness' may be either quick or slow, either a sudden shock of a couple of months or a gradual withering away over 5 or more years. To stay 'economically viable' as workers, pay will have to fall and taxes will have to rise. Theresa is busy proclaiming money for this that and the other but unless she has it stashed under her bed the economy will struggle to support it.
With the constant 'threats' and disgraceful behavior towards the EU, chances of an 'easy' Brexit on good terms are dwindling daily.

[Mistigri]

Could somebody explain, in fairly simple terms what Canada +++ is?

@TokyoSushi Canada is a reference to a typical free trade agreement (FTA) between the EU and a third country. Canada is not a member of the customs union or single market, so this implies customs checks, as well other checks for compliance with single market regulations for goods transiting from the UK to the EU. This is a hard border scenario - it does not and never will permit a frictionless border.

The +++ will be cooperation on non-trade issues, such a sharing of security data.

Any Canada type deal will require a backstop that keeps Northern Ireland inside the single market for most purposes as well as a customs agreement.

[TokyoSushi]

That's really helpful, thank you!

[1tisILeClerc]

The Canada 'setup is fine for Canada as most goods come by sea, so they have days or even weeks to run through the necessary paperwork.
The need for lorry parking and a lot more customs officers for movements between the EU and UK is brought about by the need for everything in the future to be checked. At present less than 10 percent is looked at. Following Brexit, without suitable deals will put that at 100%.
At present JIT manufacturing can work because parts for Mini's for example will have their trucks booked on regular ferry runs. With the possibility of those trucks getting 'jammed' behind a thousand others the system will simply collapse. A day delay of essential parts, say engines, would stop production. One company has said 1 days 'stoppage' equates to about £60 Million.

[HurricaneFloss]

So the DUP will vote against this, won't they?
What about Labour?

[LouiseCollins28]

@HurricaneFloss.
It would seem likely that Labour are going to vote against any Brexit deal that PM May agrees with the EU 27.

All this despite the party voting in favour of holding the referendum in June 2015 and mostly in favour of invoking Article 50.

[bellinisurge]

This could be sorted if we allowed a border in the Irish Sea and made N Ireland a special economic area. It would thrive and indeed flourish into the future.
But our government is beholden to a bunch of creationist Neanderthals who claim to represent the best interests of the Unionist community's NI. The Unionist community in NI would be better served by a thriving prosperous economy. NI cannot become part of Ireland unless a majority in NI want it. With a "best of both worlds" economy in NI, people are highly likely to want to stay in the Uk. Especially as the UK government continues to indulge all the Unionists' anti-abortion nonsense.

[HurricaneFloss]

Thanks, LouiseCollins.

So, if TM can't get Canada+++ through Commons are we left with leaving without a deal or TM rescinding Article 50?

[LouiseCollins28]

@bellinisurge
what you are proposing it that the UK government presides over the breakup of the UK. Why propose this when you know that the PM will never agree to it?

Calling people "Neanderthals" is seriously unhelpful to put it very mildly. Minded to report that post.