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Westmistenders: 'No Deal please; We're British'

(1000 Posts)
RedToothBrush Tue 12-Jun-18 16:09:12

It has to be said that its almost as if Tory Rebels are too polite to challenge the PM.

But the stakes are getting higher and higher as it becomes more and more apparent that it is a clear choice between a chaotic no deal situation or a BINO and there is no alternative to that.

If the Tory Rebels don't show their grit and are not prepared to be as strong in their determination as the Brexiteers - out of almost politeness and obligation - then No Deal awaits.

As things move forward, the threat to May once again re-emerges too. If May doesn't do what the ERG say they are minded and will try to oust her. They have nothing to lose by it.

The Tory knives are hidden behind backs one again. Waiting.

Which way will the Withdrawal Bill go? Which way will the Trade Bill later this month go?

We are running out of time and options: for either a deal or no deal.

Time has already run out for many ordinary people - they just might not know that yet, but the decision has already be made about their future.

lonelyplanetmum Tue 12-Jun-18 16:10:55

Place marking! Thank you Ma'am.

54321go Tue 12-Jun-18 16:15:09

The new future is getting ever more expensive whichever way it goes.

54321go Tue 12-Jun-18 16:17:23

Any guesses as to how many times the £360 Million per week (theoretical reclaim from EU payments) has already been lost?
The Divorce bill (cost), how long will that take to recoup?

Motheroffourdragons Tue 12-Jun-18 16:18:10

Place marking - it sounds as if the govt have not lost this vote?

DGRossetti Tue 12-Jun-18 16:21:25

.

RedToothBrush Tue 12-Jun-18 16:22:02

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
For third time Solicitor General has offered a concession of a “structured discussion” on the first two parts of Grieve Amendment ... suggested it will come back in Lords

RedToothBrush Tue 12-Jun-18 16:22:40

Kevin Schofield @PolhomeEditor
This was the No10 line on the Grieve amendment this morning: "We are not backing the Grieve amendment - the government has tabled an amendment on this matter already." Now they've managed to buy off the Tory rebels by more or less promising to implement it.

DarlingNikita Tue 12-Jun-18 16:24:41

Placemarking. Thanks Red.

Hasenstein Tue 12-Jun-18 16:25:37

So they're avoiding defeat by changing their stance and going along with the amendment anyway.

They tried this last time, but rebels thought it was too late and passed the amendment.

Seems to be a regular tactic, but just seems a bit sneaky (and lily-livered) to me.

woman11017 Tue 12-Jun-18 16:26:32

omg thanks red

Motheroffourdragons Tue 12-Jun-18 16:26:39

Oh for crying out loud - it just gets silly. They really have no backbone at all.

Dobby1sAFreeElf Tue 12-Jun-18 16:27:34

Thanks rtb
Confused here. Is this the meaningful vote amendement that they said they'd do in the last round but were now trying to weasel out of?

colouringinagain Tue 12-Jun-18 16:28:04

Anyone else finding today seriously depressing?!

RedToothBrush Tue 12-Jun-18 16:30:17

Labour Whips @labourwhips
We expect 11 divisions from 4:15pm. The main vote on a ‘Meaningful Vote’ should be the 6th, around 5.30pm with a result around 5.45pm. #MeaningfulVote

The current one is 'this amendment obliges a committee to scrutinise all ministerial directives'.

But it is confusing as they didn't discuss half the stuff they are voting on.

woman11017 Tue 12-Jun-18 16:34:09

@tnewtondunn
Deal is: Govt agrees the Commons will be able to direct Brexit negotiations if no deal by November 30 this year. A veto ceded to MPs on how it proceeds from then onwards. That's a BIG climb down.

Anyone else finding today seriously depressing
No, not depressing. Some fantastic speeches from tories and SNP.
Parliament doing a very small portion of what it should be doing.

But it is confusing as they didn't discuss half the stuff they are voting on
It's like a parliament under an occupied force, curtailed in every possible way.

RedToothBrush Tue 12-Jun-18 16:34:40

It sounds like the Rebels won. But the government claim the victory having agreed to table an amendment in the Lords in order to save face. However since the plan is to take it to the Lords, the Brexiteers have time enough to whine about it.

Of course the numbers in the Lords mean that if the government do renege on the deal, then they could reject approving the government's proposals and send it back to the Commons...

Peregrina Tue 12-Jun-18 16:35:00

So is this more kicking the can down the road? The road is a cul-de-sac, so eventually it will get nowhere.

RedToothBrush Tue 12-Jun-18 16:39:50

Worth remembering that if May IS defeated by the Rebels in the Commons, then she is more at risk of a leadership challenge because it will be viewed as a vote of no confidence in her leadership. It isn't a no confidence vote, but it would raise the question.

So, at this point, there is a case to say that we DON'T want the Rebels to win a victory over government by a vote. We WANT them to win by forcing the government's hand BEFORE the vote by any means possible.

Does that make sense?

Motheroffourdragons Tue 12-Jun-18 16:40:17

Ultimately though everything is just going nowhere . . .

I can't see how May can hold on much longer, she doesn't seem to have any credibility at all.

RedToothBrush Tue 12-Jun-18 16:43:41

So is this more kicking the can down the road?

Yes. And no.

(Yes it is confusing.)

Its forcing May into that corner. And forcing the ERG into corner too.

May is just painting herself into one.
The ERG are like rats in a corner, and will increasingly behave like that.

Its have explosive potential. Lets put it that way. There is a good chance of more resignations... this time from the Brexiteer side.

DGRossetti Tue 12-Jun-18 16:46:05

I return to my previous thoughts that whatever is passed as law in the UK, there's an international dimension to it, and there's no use parliament passing something which simply can't be done. Parliament might say "we're staying in this, that but not the other", but it has no effect on the EUs position.

There's also a distinct danger that if they aren't careful, they will unwittingly negate the GFA under the convention that any new act of parliament which conflicts with a previous one automatically "repeals" the old act (although I'm not sure if this applies to treaties ?????)

RedToothBrush Tue 12-Jun-18 16:46:37

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
So Government indicating that it will use 5a and 5b but not 5c of the Grieve Amendment as basis for a discussion on meaningful vote... and this will be put in the bill in ping pong... worked for Wollaston and Sandbach...

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Deal is: Govt agrees the Commons will be able to direct Brexit negotiations if no deal by November 30 this year. A veto ceded to MPs on how it proceeds from then onwards. That's a BIG climb down

Jo Maugham QC @JolyonMaugham
This, assuming it is accurate, is good enough (imo).

WhatWouldScoobyDoo Tue 12-Jun-18 16:50:01

It actually seems to me as if this may be a positive move - it’s squaring the circle of getting the govt to back down without giving the ERG the chance to give May the push. Possibly quite a neat solution..
Don’t want to get too optimistic though as it could still all be reversed.

woman11017 Tue 12-Jun-18 16:51:20

@faisalislam
So Government indicating that it will use 5a and 5b but not 5c of the Grieve Amendment as basis for a discussion on meaningful vote... and this will be put in the bill in ping pong... worked for Wollaston and Sandbach...

So no HOC vote on crash out..........

@WomaninHavana
The voting has begun, and yet there's been barely a scrap of debate on the substance of many of these technical & crucial amendments, including on Parliamentary scrutiny.

It's Brexit in a nutshell - ill-informed, misunderstood, rushed through for no sensible reason.

(There is a reason though.........)

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