Is anyone actually pleased with the way things are going so far?

[Bearbehind]

I appreciate Remainers aren’t going to be happy with things but I’m really struggling to see how anyone can be pleased with the unbelievable mess this situation is.

I can literally hear TM repeating the words ‘make me an offer’ in her robotic mantra as is reported here

Why haven’t we come up with any robust plans yet?

Why can’t we state what we want in more detail than ‘a deep and special relationship’?

Why are we still working on the premise we can have our cake and eat it?

[Doubletrouble99]

Most of the stuff being put on these boards is just conjecture and the opinions of people who are not involved in the negotiations.

Negotiations don't start again for a few weeks and at this stage I certainly wouldn't expect to know exactly what the governments negotiating strategy is.
The basic premise of negotiations is always that you ask for the best deal you could possibly anticipate and negotiate from there, just as the EU have stated their proposals for the transition period. I am hopeful that we can negotiate a much better transition that that.

This 'cake and eat it' rubbish is getting really boring. As for a mess, well I think that is all in your head Bear.

[JWIM]

But didn't the EU set out it's negotiation position only yesterday - quite clearly and transparently? Are we holding our cards to our chest - well not really as our Gov't has already confirmed that the cabinet has yet to reach a 'collective responsibility' [if that is still a feature of the UK political system] position on our 'post brexit' relationship, or not, with the EU. Discussion on that is now not until next Wednesday.

So yes there is conjecture, but all based on the facts as announced by the relevant parties to date. And it does not look good for an economically or politically successful Brexit from the UK perspective - see comments by Liam Fox, IDS, JR-M.

[Doubletrouble99]

Just because the EU announced their position yesterday doesn't mean we should announce ours. What would that achieve? We are not going back to the negotiating table till March.

[Subtleconstraints]

Doubletrouble I don't think we know what the UK's negotiating strategy is because, er, they don't either.

[MyBrilliantDisguise]

Doubletrouble do you REALLY think it's only in Bear's head that this is a mess? Everyone thinks it's a mess, even those who wanted to leave! (Though a large proportion of those who wanted to leave think we've already left.)

[MimpiDreams]

As today's leaked impact reports show, we cannot state what we want because every conceivable option leaves us up shit creek.

[JWIM]

We seem to want our cake and to eat it. We want a bespoke agreement. The EU has been clear that there will be no bespoke agreement.

Every stated position taken by the UK Gov't since Art 50 was invoked has been yielded to the EU stated position. I see nothing from the UK Gov't that will result in a different outcome over the post Brexit 'agreement'. It will be nothing like the bespoke deal our Gov't says it will get whilst at the same time not being able to articulate what that agreement will actually include.

It is an unmitigated mess of our (read leave voters/May Gov't only) making.

[Bearbehind]

I was just going to ask double exactly the same thing mybrilliant

I simply cannot understand how anyone can look at where we are and think ‘this is going well’

[Subtleconstraints]

And the UK government, being utterly divided, can't agree on the relationship it wants with the EU after we have left. Imagine trying to negotiate with someone who doesn't know what their ultimate goal is?

Of course the debate about ultimate aims should have taken place before the referendum, not at the same time as the negotiations are taking place. It's a complete shambles.

[Doubletrouble99]

The only mess is in the heads of the people who listen to all the complete rubbish and conjecture coming out of all sorts of sources with all sorts of spurious views with absolutely no substance. We are in the process of leaving a very large organisation. Just because the government has no intention of telling all and sundry the details of their position does not mean there is no plan.
The 'leaked' impact statements are of little consequence - 8% over 15 years is about 0.5% per year which is just not statistically significant.

[JWIM]

And the 700 trade agreements the EU has that we currently benefit from - what cost when we lose those?

And the imposition of tariff and non-tariff barriers, and the infrastructure to 'police' them - what cost that to UK business and UK tax payers?

And peace - what cost for the imposition of a border between NI and RoI - cost here being in lives harmed and £s?

These are all ongoing costs and all will be the result of the deal 'whatever it is in the end'. They can only not be incurred by remaining in the singe market and in the customs union.

Then there are the unknown costs of breaching international treaties of the significance of the Good Friday Agreement.

The above is not conjecture. If not a mess, how would you describe it? Going well?

[Doubletrouble99]

700 trade deals!!! Who on earth has 700 trade deals - 50 or so maybe.

[Twofishfingers]

It's going a bit better than I thought. For one thing, the media is starting to talk about other issues, about time. I was getting sick of it.

Secondly, we need to make this assumption that the rest of Europe sees us like fools, which we are, and I'm at peace with this. Probably because I'm not British.

Thirdly, it all the cracks in the conservative party are starting to show. That does feel good. And somehow I don't see much of Baffoon Johnson in the press at the moment, which also feels good.

Apart from that, it's shit.

[MyBrilliantDisguise]

According to this paper from the LSE it's more than 100.

[Motheroffourdragons]

And erm, I really struggle to believe we have any plans at all - this tory government is in meltdown over it. We have the ultra right hard brexiteers, the BINOs, the wish it weren't happening tories.

So, this second phase of negotiations hasn't started yet but we don't know what we want, so what is there to negotiate about?

It's all well and good saying 8% over the next 15 years isn't that much. But remember this is currently a boom (haha at less than 2%), what if there is another global recession and our growth is at recession levels and reduced further because of brexit too. Oh and this 'boom' is driven by manufacturing for exports as manufacturers realise their export markets may well dry up after March 2019, so getting as much in before then as possible. We are not growing in the construction industry, which is one of the the main indicators of stability of the economy.

[JWIM]

There are over 700 negotiated arrangements between the EU and 3rd countries - some are full 'Free Trade Agreements' some are narrower in their ambit. All are available to the UK as an EU member state.

[JWIM]

Did you have any thoughts on the other costs i listed?

[Doubletrouble99]

To get to over 100 you have to add the already negotiated deals together with the deals that are still in negotiation.
There are quite a few deals that the EU have with comparatively small countries and countries that we do very little trade with that I daunt we will be rushing to get reinstated straight away.

[JWIM]

No, those are already agreed but not all are Free Trade Agreements.

Are those in favour of brexit not proposing that the UK will be trading with more countries than currently and in more quantity around the world in order to to build our economy in a way they argue we are currently stifled by EU membership so they say?

[howabout]

There are less than 200 countries in the World and since 28 are already in the EU that leaves somewhat less than 700 to negotiate a trade deal with.

[Subtleconstraints]

It's not conjecture though and the concerns are not spurious. The UK negotiators are coming up against cold hard facts such as you can't hold on to all the trading advantages that being part of the EU affords us, whilst not being a member.

There are around 241 trade agreements. And 44,000 pages of EU legislation that will have to be made in to UK law which translates in to ten years of civil servants time and a shed load of money spent on getting us back to a position that will be worse than when we started.

[Subtleconstraints]

Some countries have more than one agreement how about there are approx 241 in total!

[MinnieMousse]

I can't think of anyone who is happy. The Norths might be pleased, I suppose, as it looks like the Single Market option they were hoping for is looking more likely. To me, it just looks like being in the EU but with less influence. Personally, I would still prefer that to a hard Brexit.

None of the most vocal leavers will ever admit that Brexit is a mistake, though . People don't like to admit they were wrong.

[JWIM]

There are sector agreements, so multiple sectors with one country, not just FTAs. ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/

[Doubletrouble99]

Can't see anywhere that the single market is becoming more likely Minnie.