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Where do you realistically think we go from here?

(544 Posts)
Bearbehind Tue 17-Oct-17 17:57:50

So Amber Rudd says 'no deal is unthinkable' and David Davis says the opposite.

DD also says we'd only agree to a transition period if the terms of our deal were known before hand.

The EU are still insisting the 3 priorities are addressed before talks can move to trade so basically we're at a stand off.

Something has to give at some point.

Regardless of what you want to happen, what do you think will actually happen.

I think we will walk away from the talks, all hell will break loose when the repercussions of that come to the fore and we'll end up staying in the EU in some capacity but in a much weaker position than before.

Figmentofmyimagination Tue 17-Oct-17 18:36:58

I think the government is going to fall some time in 2019.

Bearbehind Tue 17-Oct-17 18:53:29

Before or after March figment?

fakenamefornow Tue 17-Oct-17 19:27:59

I don't know, (head in hands). I just wish with all my heart that the EU referendum had never happened or Remain had won, I think the economy would be booming now if that had happened.

It baffles me how anybody can still support Leave after all the lies have been exposed and the relentlessly bad Brexit news.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/hate-crimes-eu-referendum-spike-brexit-terror-attacks-police-home-office-europeans-xenophobia-a8004716.html

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41649498

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/no-deal-brexit-uk-economy-cost-leave-eu-oecd-drop-growth-a8004686.html

I wonder how much money Brexit has cost us already? Leavers, come on, talk me round, tell me how great Brexit is again because I think I'm getting Brexit depression.

What I think will happen, no deal, parliament won't push the economy off the cliff edge and It'll be thrown back to the people by way of another referendum or GE. I don't know how they'll vote.

I think if we do have any sort of Brexit it's going to be very bad for the economy, NI and Gibraltar and support for the Tory party who brought us into the mess will vanish for a generation.

PeachMelbaPud Tue 17-Oct-17 19:36:03

It's a fucking disaster sad

CaptainBrickbeard Tue 17-Oct-17 19:37:43

I think another referendum or general election. If the government pushes ahead with the cliff edge option, will the Tories ever get elected again? They will want to protect themselves more than anything else; I think they will try to pull back. But who knows? For all the Remain campaign was dismissed as scaremongering, things do seem pretty scary right now.

DancingLedge Tue 17-Oct-17 19:38:43

Hell in a handcart.

WifeofDarth Tue 17-Oct-17 19:39:38

Good question. Is that you Theresa?

Bearbehind Tue 17-Oct-17 19:41:30

Good question. Is that you Theresa?

Lol grin

Chickenkatsu Tue 17-Oct-17 19:43:44

Anything that results in a lot of rich people loosing a lot of money tends not to happen. I still think that it won't go ahead, although no one knows for sure.

PrincessoftheSea Tue 17-Oct-17 19:44:00

I think its too late to stop. The current politicians will vanish and noone want to take over the reigns so we will be left scraping the barrell trying to find someone who fancy a shot at running the country.

woman11017 Tue 17-Oct-17 20:04:45

In August working class (C2DE) voters divided 63-37 per cent saying we took the right decision.

^Last week’s poll has virtually identical figures for ABC1 voters (41 per cent right, 59 per cent wrong), but a seven-point shift among C2DE voters, to 56 per cent right, 44 per cent wrong.

Kellner suggests that if the shift increases from a 7% lead for Remain amongst C2DE voters to 10%, it's a game changer.

It's been an almost 20% shift in that demographic to Remain in the last 8 weeks.

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/blogs/peter-kellner/crunching-the-numbers-are-voters-really-turning-against-brexit

Bearbehind Tue 17-Oct-17 20:27:42

really interested to know where any Leavers think we'll go from here.

Corcory Tue 17-Oct-17 21:18:24

I think we are at a critical time of the negotiations. We can't been seen to be weak and have to be prepared to walk away if need be. Otherwise there is no way of getting any concessions from the EU. We have enacted article 50 so we have to leave. There is really very little point in speaking about having some other referendum and hoping that the people will reject the deal we have been presented with. We are leaving anyway so we would just leave with nothing. We won't be going back.

Dapplegrey2 Tue 17-Oct-17 21:23:03

Bear - iirc before the referendum last year you said you thought that only those well informed about the EU should be allowed to vote. If there was another referendum do you still think that should be the rule?

yorkshireyummymummy Tue 17-Oct-17 21:41:40

I find it quite unbelievable that the powers that be, the ones who decided to give us a free vote did not have a plan in place no matter what the outcome of the referendum was. There could only be two choices so it wasn't like there was a myriad of alternatives to discuss. Just a what do we do if we vote to stay/or/leave.
And then we voted the buggers back in! And not just the Torys, the same Labour MPs too!!
I wish I felt a bit of confidence in our MPs but I don't. I have never ever felt so dissolusioned with politics and pissed on by MPs who seem to be in it for the money, not altruistic reasons. I sickly hearing them spouting the same old shite.
So who knows what will happen. The bottom line is when the referendum was held the majority of voters chose to leave and that therefore is what we should do. But all of this faffing about, not seemingly able to make decisions and to make the break quickly is driving me - and seemingly everybody else in the country- bloody bananas.
Not having strong leadership ( sorry Teresa, not falling for that anymore) and dragging this out is what is damaging the economy.
Its membership to a club we no longer want to be in. Yes, I know there's lots to untangle but there's lots of people working on it too!! All on better wages than us probably!!
So I just hope they either say " right, that's it. We are out. Not paying any more. No automatic right of entry. Let's start negotiating trade " or " its too complicated and we don't know how todo it so we had better stay. Sorry we gave you the vote but we really didn't thinkyou wanted to leave! We only gave it so you would vote us back in you know!!"
I think either way we are fucked.
Tesco has 25% off 6 bottles or more ATM so my advice is to get pissed!!

Redactio Tue 17-Oct-17 21:47:28

The Government should stop the talks now and concentrate on developing the infrastructure required for an independent UK .The EU aren't interested in negotiating anyway.

megletthesecond Tue 17-Oct-17 21:51:52

We are so screwed. It's 15 months since the referendum and we've got another 18 to go downhill before the shit really hits the fan.

Peregrina Tue 17-Oct-17 22:26:59

Otherwise there is no way of getting any concessions from the EU.

If anyone wants to leave an organisation, why should they be asking for concessions?

TerracottaTurtles Tue 17-Oct-17 22:34:32

MysticTurtles predicts:

Labour Party will declare that, for the sake of keeping jobs, we need to Remain in the EU provided certain concessions are granted
General Election next year.
Labour will win and France and Germany will be delighted to offer us the concessions. We'll remain. Farage and the other extreme loonies will grumble but no one will listen to them

IrenetheQuaint Tue 17-Oct-17 22:41:15

Agree with the OP that a disorderly Remain is a strong possibility. So is an EEA or Swiss-type deal, which no one would be really happy with but enough people would be willing to accept as the consequences of crashing out become clear.

lljkk Tue 17-Oct-17 22:48:45

It's like an infinite probability spectrum & I can't read the runes at all.

My slightly majority bet on what will happen: is a transition period that looks a LOT like the Norway model. This will be announced initially as "two" or "three" years. But 6-12months before the end of that nominal period, the arrangement will be extended.. repeatedly. Eventually we'll end up with something that looks hugely like the Norway model but with a few minor and even fewer bizarre tweaks that will slowly happen over many decades to come. All the benefits that Leavers shouted about won't really happen or will actually be a leap into the fire from the frying pan (like trade arbitration by WTO rather than by Eur. Ct of Justice).

I was reading The New European this evening (yes, I even paid £2 for it). They were describing the havoc that Brexit is going to cause with British territories in the Carribean. (sigh) I can't even get my head around what Brexit could mean for the overseas territories.

Sinuhe Tue 17-Oct-17 22:49:58

Corcory, in the eye of the EU, the UK is a weak, arrogant country. The EU will cut the UK out after it has been bleed dry. The recovery will be very slow and painful.
And no I don't believe there will be any favours coming from non EU countries, because the UK was always their entry point into that market.

engineersthumb Tue 17-Oct-17 22:55:43

I really hope it results in a vote on the final deal. Preferably resulting in a stay vote and ever closer union and a hug let successful EU for all... you guess how I and my (EU born) wife voted!

GoodLuckTime Tue 17-Oct-17 22:58:17

60% chance: similar shit show continues until March 2019. Huffing on both sides, probably some walking out, little progress. Economic outlook worsens considerably in that time. Inflation up, pound down, companies moving jobs out, public spending low as everything worsens. Public sentiment looses enthusiasm for hard Brexit, or perhaps Brexit at all as reality bites.

in a couple of panicked all nighters as the deadline approaches, a deal is thrashed out. Yes, it would be better for us, for them, if we thrashed one out sooner. But the EU never gets serious until the deadline, and does all its deals on the eve of them (see also: Greece). Deal involves staying in Single Market on basically the same terms for the next few years, but without voting rights. Maybe something on future relationship. Likely the beginning of a rolling never never where politicians can claim Brexit has been achieved without actually leaving the single market / EU changes enough with a range of 'membership' options so that the whole concept of Brexit becomes moot.

E.g. meantime core group of EU countries press on with further integration UK would never have agreed to.

Eventually some sort of trade deal agreed which us and other non EU core countries settle into. Economic decline bottoms out sometime during this period and recovery begins. New normal for next 10 years plus.

So rough, but survivable.

20% chance: either side comes to senses and deal gets thrashed out according to original timescale. Could be better or worse than the above. The one benefit of the first scenario is the hangover will have kicked in and killed off all notions of hard Brexit.

20% chance: no deal. Big negative economic impacts for UK. Beginning of serious decline. Public services as we know them (NHS etc) fall apart, as they are simply unaffordable in our new economic reality. Fall out of the G7 sometime in the 2020s. Eventually admit our mistake and rejoin the Single Market sometime towards 2030.

On the plus side: in any of these, the death / split of the Tory party. Possibly Labour too. Realliagnment of british politics: for me, Brexit is best seen (from a UK perspective) as the end of the Thatcher paradigm. As, in turn, the arrival of Thatcher was the end of the post war paradigm. Not clear what the new British settlement will be yet, but likewise it wasn't really clear what Thatcherism was about until the mid 1980s.

Like it or not, Brexit forces a European reckoning too. The victory of Macron allowed entrenched Euro elites to think it was a blip. But they are wrong, and the sentiments expressed by Brexit are growing elsewhere across the EU, and not going away (see most recently the German election result). TO deal with this, the EU will HAVE To change to survive, and that will be a good thing.

But potentially a shit decade meantime. Which is non trival.

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