Anybody else starting to think Brexit might actually INCREASE immigration?

[fakenamefornow]

All this talk about special exception for this, that and the other industries. Free movement for anybody with a job offer (this seems to me very close to what we have now anyway) free movement for students. India has said no special trade deal for us without movement on immigration. Immigration is counted numbers in V numbers out so if we have free movement of workers and students, there has been no mention of pensioners, these are one of our big exports so will keep our numbers up if they can't move easily, as they can now.

[MakemineaGandT]

Yes - there is a real possibility of this. Something which has been raised by a number of MPs. Certainly non-EU immigration is very likely to be higher than it currently is.

[Bearbehind]

I agree.

And the real irony is the racist bigots who voted because they didn't like immigrants are going to be really pissed off that the increase won't be made up of white Europeans.........

[Mistigri]

I think there will be a short term drop (before brexit actually happens) because many EU citizens have already been put off coming, and some are leaving.

In the longer term immigration is driven primarily by the availability of jobs. If enough jobs move off-shore (and the process has already started) then employment opportunities will disappear and less immigration will be required. The cost of this is a smaller economy and lower growth of course.

[Peregrina]

I think the good quality jobs in e.g. medical and scientific research will disappear or diminish severely.

I can't see the need for e.g. care home staff to diminish, so we will just see more black and brown faces, which will not be what the racists wanted. I won't shed any tears for them. (But the Referendum wasn't about immigration, of course.)

Fruit picking might be automated to a greater extent than now, although where the money to fund the research will come from is anyone's guess.

[GraceGrape]

we will just see more black and brown faces, will not be what the racists wanted

This. A surprising number of leave voters I have spoken to did it to stop the Muslims coming over apparently.

[GraceGrape]

Sorry Pergrina, I managed to delete the "which" when quoting you. Am on my phone.

[GraceGrape]

And I spelled your name wrong!

[Anon1234567890]

Surly if immigration was going to increase after Brexit that would mean people see the UK as a better destination post EU. So your saying there is a danger of Brexit being a success?

If unskilled immigration decreases and skilled immigration increases with the UK being in control of how it happens, then its a win win for the UK.

[lalalonglegs]

On the plus side for net migration figures , many British citizens that I know who have the means (skills or dual citizenship) to leave the UK are now desperately looking for opportunities abroad...

[Corcory]

One of the reasons I voted leave was because I didn't agree with FOM for anyone from the EU. I want to see anyone and everyone in the world to have the same rights to come here. So if they have the right qualifications and experience to warrant a job offer then they should be able to come if their skills are needed no matter what the colour of their skin or their religion. Alternatively we should be able to ban or expel people with terrorist or criminal pasts who the authorities think are a threat to us.

[GraceGrape]

Not necessarily Anon. It's that the work will still need to be done and either EU migrants will be less likely to want to come or that employers may be able to offer lower pay and working conditions to migrants from outside the EU (which would fit in very well with certain Brexiteers visions of a low-pay, low-regulation economy).

[squishysquirmy]

Well, not all leavers voted because of immigration.
Depends on how things go - if things get really bad, net migration may decrease due to rising emigration.

[Mistigri]

So if they have the right qualifications and experience to warrant a job offer then they should be able to come if their skills are needed no matter what the colour of their skin or their religion.

Except there is no reason why highly qualified people shouldn't be able to come today, yet the HO has made it so difficult that my employer has moved some of its R&D outside the UK basically because it is so complicated to bring over scientists from Asia. Brexit won't change that, especially if the commitment to reduce immigration to "tens of thousands" makes it into the tory manifesto - it will make it worse because employers like mine will no longer have ready access to science graduates from Europe. These jobs will just move, as there is no obvious reason why most of them need to be in the UK; you can conduct blue sky research in any country where it's easy to recruit Phds scientists.

[TrojanWhore]

'Free movement for anyone with a job' isn't free movement, it's a work visa system.

And yes, post-Brexit it can be applied to nationals of any country, brining in the numbers and skills required. From wherever they live, not from a few nationalities only. Wider pool of potential talent, and numbers more closely aligned with what employers want. It might still be a large number, but it would be a number of the government's determining.

[PaintingByNumbers]

barista visas is pushing the definition of skilled labour to its very limits. currently, a lot of companies recruit abroad anyway, as then they can take all their employees wages back off them as accommodation costs, add in india etc visas and, yes, welcome low wage high.immigration uk.
the only.good part is we will know who to complain to. no fobbing it off as EU rules.

[fakenamefornow]

So your saying there is a danger of Brexit being a success?

I wouldn't describe success as a danger, I am desperately hoping Brexit will be a success, or at least not a complete economic disaster. This isn't to say I support it either, I will never support an action that takes rights and opportunities away from my children.

A surprising number of leave voters I have spoken to did it to stop the Muslims coming over apparently.

Yes, I know some who did this as well. I also know one person who voted out to reduce EU immigration hoping this would open the door for immigration from outside the EU. He had a particular person in mind, some distant relative that lived in Asia.

[taytopotato]

The care system is experiencing severe staff recruitment crisis.
see here
here
in cumbria

This is a shortage of nurses and carers.

The care industry will lobby special visas for them. This already has been done in the past. It stopped because we could get nurses and carers from EU particularly from Eastern europe.

[fakenamefornow]

no fobbing it off as EU rules

I bet we will still blame the EU for everything.

[PaintingByNumbers]

the care system pays shit and treats staff appallingly. they could try sorting that out instead.

[lalalonglegs]

The care system can pay its staff more when people who need care - or the councils that are funding it - are prepared to pay more for it. It's no secret that it's chronically underfunded.

[Peregrina]

The care system can pay its staff more when people who need care

Private care homes cost an arm and a leg as it is. Whether they pay their staff well, is debatable.

[taytopotato]

[[http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/primers/social-care-for-older-people-and-demand-for-migrant-workers/]] This is pre Brexit

[LastnightaDJ]

Don't really mind much abt people coming here. What pisses me off is me and my kids and my parents losing rights to go elsewhere in the EU. But then seems lots of Brexit supporters aren't interested in anything beyond their own backyard, let alone elsewhere in the EU, so it is unsurprising that they don't share my concerns. I am sad and so so angry.

[squishysquirmy]

That nutty UKIP council candidate was advocating euthanasia as a solution to the demographic imbalance in the UK wasn't she?

[Peregrina]

Wasn't the UKIP candidate also proposing that we saved whales and dolphins?