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What are people's thoughts so far?

(92 Posts)
Bearbehind Sun 16-Apr-17 18:52:38

From where I'm standing it's a fucking shambles. So far TM has tried

- threatening to turn the UK into a tax haven

then

- threatening to walk away with no deal if necessary

Then

- withdrawing security co-operation

Now

- Telling the country we 'must unite' for apparently no other reason than she's told us to

As far as I can see this has all gone down like a cup of cold sick.

The EU have, quite rightly IMO, said 'piss off we're going to look after ourselves first even if it costs us in the short term'.

So who thinks things are going well so far?

Mistigri Sun 16-Apr-17 19:03:14

It seems to be going pretty much how I expected, ie nowhere fast. We are now 9.5 months into the process and nothing positive has been achieved.

Meanwhile, inflation is rising, we've lost the EMA, EU students are going elsewhere and the home office is turning down PR applications from residents who have been in the country for decades.

prettybird Sun 16-Apr-17 22:34:32

I saw this on Twitter. Seems to be a pretty accurate summary wink

^Best description I've seen of UK's negotiating strategy; akin to technique of speaking English louder to foreigners^😂

Carolinesbeanies Mon 17-Apr-17 08:44:35

Prettybird, you ignore the fact that a/ up until Lisbon, there was no mechanism at all for 'leaving' the EU. (The assumption was that having set up the EU under international law, it could be disbanded, or a member could leave, under international law.) and b/ The only obligation on any party, was then specified in the Lisbon treaty as A50. Its so broad, you could drive 500 eu buses through it.
Remainers like to blame the UK for this lack of definition. (Which they were, in part, as 1/28 agreeing such a ridiculous contract)

Whilst the EU are happy to replace centuries of international law, with a clause, roughly 200 words long, and specify the future of all potential former EU citizens as "negotiable", its a tad rich to jump up and down on TM as not fixing this in a fortnight.

Wind your necks in and look at the reality of the situation. The wonderful EU believe all its citizens are negotiable. Lisbon says so. Take it up with them, as not only is the future of UK EU citizens at stake here, but also the other 500 million citizens living as EU citizens.

SilverLeafClover Mon 17-Apr-17 08:52:12

I just do not understand why Theresa May believes she has a mandate for hard Brexit. Yes, the Tories have a majority so I get it. But hard Brexit was never articulated during the ref campaign.

I accept the result but I do not accept the result means hard Brexit. And I cannot understand why other referendums can result in subsequent referendums, but not this one, esp when the result is leading to things nobody talked about, like loss of the EMA.

It is baffling. Another IndyRef? Probably. Another Brexit ref? Just remoaners bleating on.

And th jolly hockey sticks rhetoric from TM about coming together is sickening.

Mistigri Mon 17-Apr-17 08:53:20

Perhaps TM should have made sure that her parachute was working before she jumped.

Clearly A50 is a rather inadequate process; it was not intended to be used. Yet it was agreed by all parties. So rather than flailing around attributing blame to everyone but yourself, the answer to this problem is to seek to clarify the meaning of the article, and ensure than any negative consequences can be mitigated before invoking it (and preferably, before having a referendum about invoking it).

There were leavers who foresaw the difficulties, and even had an actual plan (Involving an organised transition via EFTA/EEA) - but who have been comprehensively ignored by almost everyone.

Carolinesbeanies Mon 17-Apr-17 09:08:18

"Perhaps TM should have made sure that her parachute was working before she jumped."

Thats the point Misti. The EU banned any such parachutes. (and yes, as 1/28, we agreed to that)

Quite simply, theres no other option than to jump first. Lisbon says so.

Bearbehind Mon 17-Apr-17 09:44:48

caroline I'm not sure what your point is in the context of this thread.

No one is claiming there is a set process to follow in order to leave only that TM does not have a mandate for a hard Brexit and there are plenty of other tactics she could have used so far.

The fact is she's gone for the 'bull in a China shop' approach and it appears to have put us on the back foot.

Is there any positive Brexit news out there?

Is there anything that people really believe is going well?

AddToBasket Mon 17-Apr-17 09:55:27

Going ok so far in that nothing much has happened/gone wrong and the SNP have failed to turn it into an independence issue.

It could have been much bumpier, both economically and diplomatically, so there does seem to be a 'steady as she goes' approach.

Manpower is clearly going to be a massive issue after all the European elections. Right now the pressure has eased to negotiate each area of government because of all the EU elections. Once that has happened, have we got the negotiators needed?

StripeyMonkey1 Mon 17-Apr-17 09:57:51

I think it's a success for TM in that she has read correctly the mood of the right wingers in her party and some of the British public. The right wing would never have tolerated breaking away from the EU by agreement given their suspicion of Europe. Aggression and fighting talk was therefore the only option politically open to TM, in order to hold the Tory party together.

Unfortunately, it's an utter shambles for the country and has put us firmly on the back foot in any negotiations with an EU which was initially sad about the UK leaving and sympathetic to the UK government's position (whilst thinking it had been foolish to call the referendum in the first place). It's also cynical and petty to sell the country so short for political reasons. I'm deeply unimpressed with TM.

Bearbehind Mon 17-Apr-17 09:59:22

Going ok so far in that nothing much has happened/gone wrong

Is that really the level of people's expectations?

It's good because nothing has gone wrong and there's been virtually no progress in 10 months hmm

prettybird Mon 17-Apr-17 10:25:12

SNP have failed to turn it into an independence issue.

This is where I wish the app/phone let me use the "crying with laughter" emoticon grin

grin

Mistigri Mon 17-Apr-17 11:25:54

Quite simply, theres no other option than to jump first. Lisbon says so.

In fact, you are quite wrong. Clearly there were a number of options available to to the May government ahead of A50. For example, reaching a consensus on how Brexit could be achieved and at what cost (ie by doing the research and then publishing a proper white paper or papers to be fully debated in parliament), and by taking a less aggressive approach eg avoiding completely avoidable missteps like the ridiculous error over Gibraltar and the HO sending "prepare to leave" letters to legal residents.

A government that had acknowledged the many complications of brexit, and in particular its consequences for NI and trade, and which had done its homework ahead of time instead of on the hoof, would be in a much better position after invoking A50.

SilverLeafClover Mon 17-Apr-17 11:44:51

So brexiteers are just glad the economy has not collapsed?

IamWendy Mon 17-Apr-17 11:45:46

Considering what we were told would happen, it's all going swimmingly!

Anon1234567890 Mon 17-Apr-17 11:50:30

Negotiations have just started so can't comment on how they are going.
Considering what project fear predicted everything is going brilliantly.
Project fear aside their has been a lot of headless chickens hot air and bluster and the run up to A50 has been reasonably uneventful.

Bearbehind Mon 17-Apr-17 12:14:15

Excellent- so the only positive news is that it hasn't gone to rat shit yet

TM must be rubbing her hands over the fact her disciples have such low expectations

Anon1234567890 Mon 17-Apr-17 12:35:33

Excellent- so the only positive news is that it hasn't gone to rat shit yet

What are you talking about, its nearly another 2 years before we leave the EU, negotiations have barely started. What actual real news would there be about something that hasn't happened yet? Your just trolling.

Bearbehind Mon 17-Apr-17 12:40:13

That's fairly typical anon, you can't counter any points I've made so you're calling me a troll hmm

What do you think of the fact that everything TM has threatened the EU with so far has been dismissed by them?

caroldecker Mon 17-Apr-17 12:52:25

TM hasn't threatened the EU - she has made her position plain. We would like a tariff free trade deal with the EU, similar to the Canadian one. She is prepared to walk away rather than get a bad deal, which is essential in any negotiation. She has reminded people that the UK offers many good things to the EU, so this deal is in their interests.
My expectations of the process were very little/no change until after leaving, then gradual change as new deals are negotiated outside the EU and the UK government review which carry-over EU regulations could be adjusted in the UK's benefit. This is a long-term project, just like joining was.

Bearbehind Mon 17-Apr-17 13:00:11

I don't think she has any intention of walking away and more importantly neither does the EU.

If that really was an option David Davis might have done a bit of homework on the implication of doing so but he hasn't even looked at it.

That was a threat which TM has back peddled on just like withdrawing security cooperation was a threat.

Trouble is, threats only work if the other side believe them and are sufficiently concerned- they clearly don't and aren't.

Anon1234567890 Mon 17-Apr-17 13:13:20

What do you think of the fact that everything TM has threatened the EU with so far has been dismissed by them?

Its called a negotiating position, each sides have laid out some and a compromise will be reached in the middle. As I said all that's happened has been hot air and bluster.

Saying its all gone to shit because there is no good news is just trolling because there couldn't be any news, it to early.

Bearbehind Mon 17-Apr-17 13:21:37

Where have I said it's all gone to shit anon?

I've said I think it's pitiful the best argument is that it hasn't gone to shit yet.

As for negotiating, I'm not sure the government understands how that actually works.

According to this article we seem to think can negotiate on keeping 2 EU agencies once we've left the EU

It's nothing short of delusion to think we hold that kind of power or that that is something we can 'negiotate' on.

ZaziesPaws Mon 17-Apr-17 13:24:38

It's going to come down to "give us what we want or we send people back no further ado".

Inevitable, given the negotiating parties UK-side and the manner of the vote.

I don't like it. But it was always going to be that way.

Caprianna Mon 17-Apr-17 13:25:54

I think history will judge TM and her government harshly.

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