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Projection of what you think will happen.

(20 Posts)
Peregrina Wed 29-Mar-17 19:02:10

It's hard to predict the future because Donald Rumsfeld's pesky unknown unknowns tend to crop up, but how do people see things unfolding?

I myself think that the UK will break up and we see a united Ireland. Once that happens, I think Scotland will go next. I think then England and Wales will lose their permanent place on the Security council.

I would like to see the Tory party completely destroyed, and a system of PR brought into Parliament (although not AV). I live in hope here.

Timescale? 10-15 years.

AndHoldTheBun Wed 29-Mar-17 19:21:02

I think you're mostly right, but Scotland will go first and then NI - timescale within 3 years for Scotland and maybe 10 for NI.

That if Brexit isn't somehow untriggered.

AndHoldTheBun Wed 29-Mar-17 19:21:51

*that's

larrygrylls Wed 29-Mar-17 19:23:34

Sounds like a wish list rather than a prediction. Schadenfreude is never an attractive trait.

larrygrylls Wed 29-Mar-17 19:30:38

Most likely prediction is that we end up paying something (though much less than 60bio), agree to freedom of movement of labour (but not people without a job) and certain articles of European law. In return we have substantial access to the single market but tariffs on some goods.

N Ireland may leave the union but never Scotland, for all their posturing. If there is a cost to the uk to Brexit, Scotland leaving would be like Brexit on steroids.

Peregrina Wed 29-Mar-17 19:31:39

The Tory party destroying itself most definitely comes under the wish list category. The rest - sadly just a question of Cameron and May setting out to appease the extreme right wing of the Tory party and unleashing forces which they were/are powerless to control.

It's already cost Cameron his political career.

Peregrina Wed 29-Mar-17 19:33:46

Never say never.
What we just don't know is the unknowns. Who on earth would have expected a Trump presidency 4 years ago? We might have expected a Republican president, but a serial bankrupt misogynist?

Bearbehind Wed 29-Mar-17 19:55:46

I totally disagree about Scotland larry

I think they'll be off at the first opportunity.

The vote was close last time and what tipped it was the certainty of being part of the Uk.

Certainty is so far down the list of what voting No to independence will bring it'll barely be relevant next time.

Patriotism will take over and they'll vote to go it alone.

captainproton Wed 29-Mar-17 20:06:01

I don't know about Scotland, they'd have to adopt the euro if they want to leave one Union for another. I don't think oil prices are what they used to be either. It very much depends on the French and German elections. I agree that we will still pay towards the eu in some way for trade, immigration (open to Eu members with a job) and security issues. If we succeed in this achievement I suspect other member states might like the look of that arrangement and we essentially end up with an EU v2 in the long run. Keeping the best bits and ditching the crappy bits.

Fact is the Eu need us and we need them.

Interesting times.

Peregrina Wed 29-Mar-17 20:07:31

And certainly with May's blather about a close United Kingdom but just not keeping the devolved Governments informed, who can trust a word that she says?

I do wonder, what was said at the time the Irish Free State came into being? Was that a question of 'they will never manage without us?' Which I think, they found difficult until the EEC/EU came into being and it allowed them to forge a new non-subordinate identity.

larrygrylls Wed 29-Mar-17 20:08:11

Bear,

63% of Scotland's exports are with the rest of the uk. Scotland is fundamentally a poor country who depend on England for both trade and subsidy.

And the Scots know it. The latest poll in January was overwhelmingly against another referendum.

Bearbehind Wed 29-Mar-17 20:09:06

Brexit has shown that rational evaluation of the economic pros and cons are not what motivates voters in situations like this.

Unless the goal posts move massively from where they are today I'd bet my bottom dollar that Yes will win next time.

SleepFreeZone Wed 29-Mar-17 20:12:36

I'm not sure. I don't think any predictions of those supposed in the know have come true for years. Politically everything seems to be a surprise 🙄

I shall predict not much changing at all and be a maverick.

Peregrina Wed 29-Mar-17 20:18:49

The latest poll in January was overwhelmingly against another referendum.

But what will happen in 18 months time, especially if May carries on the way she is doing? She is very, very much Southern England based, and really doesn't know how even people of her own social class in say the north of England think and feel. She appears to be trying to be a Thatcher Mark 2 - not realising that Thatcher is utterly detested still in many parts of the north, and will be for a good many years to come.

RoyFoster Wed 29-Mar-17 20:21:07

I think the UK will face a gradual relative decline. Nothing dramatic and it will always be hard to say what the counterfactual was, but it will be a very different and less prosperous and welcoming country than otherwise. The UK portrayed in the 2012 Opening Ceremony will gradually be unrecognisable.

A united Ireland would be one of the few positives, and a hard Brexit certainly transforms the economic case. Have enough Unionists moved on? Not yet, but maybe in another 10 years. Dublin is a much more positive place than Brexit Britain.

whatwouldrondo Wed 29-Mar-17 20:28:08

My prediction is that we will not get our cake and eat it too and we will see a substantial outflow of business activity and skills in those activities that are currently sources of competitive advantage in global markets to other markets, not necessarily Europe but once the critical mass is weakened for financial services, the knowledge economy, science and tech, then other markets can compete. The business outflow is not a wishlist, it is already in the planning, Hammond acknowledged it too, what he didn't acknowledge was the skills base (and tax payers) that would go with it. Whilst loss of EU benefits like the passport will be an immediate hit, a slow decline will follow as others cities and economies build competitive advantage whilst Britain is distracted by "the will of the people" and division and the breakup of union. Do not underestimate the political upheaval that is to come taking the eye of the economic ball, not that May's eye has ever been on it.

The public sector, and especially the NHS, social care and welfare state will be forced into decline by lack of funding, the departure of EU and overseas staff and predatory private interests (especially US healthcare)

I predict that whoever is in power (assuming by some miracle it is not a pragmatic centre) will do nothing to change the status quo whereby government is guided by vested interests able to control public sentiment via the media and other more nefarious means. As the economic effects of leaving and the failure to do anything to build UK infrastructure to deal with its existing structural failings (London centricity, productivity etc) bites then the subsequent frustration will be prey to even more manipulation......

All of this though assumes a younger generation as easily manipulated as the older. Whilst I do think we will lose the brightest and the best I also do not think that they are prey to the same influences. I have never known a generation less politically engaged, as of 18 months ago, but now I am seeing generation never more politically engaged, and I doubt any of us are equipped to understand how they will act.......

Peregrina Wed 29-Mar-17 20:42:09

A good analysis, I think Ron. We were talking about this last night. The younger generation are I think fed up with the current political systems and may be able to forge something new, perhaps based around social media.

One almost certain fact is that the Queen will pass away within the next ten years. Given that Charles is already 68, I could see him not becoming King but letting that pass straight to William, who will himself be around 40. I think the Commonwealth will fall apart, or become a much more lose arrangement, like the relationship of Latin America to Spain. So Fox and Davis's fancy ideas of a new role for the Commonwealth will just be pie in the sky. As we have mentioned on these threads, the Commonwealth countries don't have quite such a benign view of the Empire as we were brought up with, and scores could be settled.

taytopotato Wed 29-Mar-17 21:17:41

I think the Queen is the one who holds the Commonwealth together and once she's gone, the Commonwealth countries will have less affection for us.

Most of the community health services are already privatised , I suspect more health related work will be done by private hospitals. Even if we open our doors to EU nurses, some are already put off coming/staying in the UK. If we continue to have a Tory government, I expect a US style private health insurance schemes. If it is a left wing or centre left government, I predict social enterprise type of health insurance. Either way, the very young and the very old (mostly boomers) will be affected.

Perhaps more migration from India and former colonies from Africa as the population in these countries are rising.

Food imported from countries with less regard to animal and environmental welfare to keep prices down. GMO in our food chain, more agribusiness and family farms might have to fold.

I might have to start home brewing wine and beer. Got any recipes?

Mistigri Wed 29-Mar-17 21:24:07

I still think it's 50:50 between an EEA/ single market brexit (because nothing else is really possible in the timeframe) and a breakdown in negotiations.

The one prediction I am reasonably confident about making is that any outcome that does not involve remaining in the single market ultimately leads to a united Ireland.

CoteDAzur Thu 30-Mar-17 07:16:07

"Fact is the Eu need us and we need them."

Whose need is more urgent, though?

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