Westministenders: Boris and The By-Elections

[RedToothBrush]

You lot post too fast!

A50 has made it out of the Commons without any amends. Its on its way to the Lords, but this week is half term, so in theory not much going on (in the UK at least). It hit the Lords on the 20th where it might not get such an easy ride. The Lords will not (and CAN NOT) stop brexit or frustrate it. But the numbers are in perhaps more favour of amendments if they choose to go that way, than the Commons. This would throw the bill back to the Commons. This is pretty reasonable.

In the meantime its 12 days to go until the Copeland and Stoke Central By-Elections.

Leave.Eu think UKIP have Stoke in the bag. They think there will be a 33% turnout. I think a turnout that high is the land of fantasy. Paul Nuttalls who was at Hillsborough is now a devout Stokie who has lived there all his life. Except of course he isn't.

Copeland looks like it will go Conservative. Its theirs to throw away. It would be the first victory for a sitting government in a by-election since 1983 if they make it. They intend to use a victory as another argument for a 'mandate'. But have they managed to drop a nuclear booboo?

One more Question. What are the chances of this thread making it to the 23rd?!

[Badders123]

Unlikely, red, unlikely 😀

[SemiPermanent]

Thanks Red, as ever.
Hopefully the odious Paul Nuttal won't get enough votes to get his deposit back.

[RedAndYellowStripe]

Joining in into a calmer thread :)

[Peregrina]

Just placemarking.

[HashiAsLarry]

Slim to none rtb. Thanks again

[annandale]

Placemarking.

Given events in recent months, maybe UKIP will win their first ever proper seat, I.e. not reelecting the same MP for a different party. I think it's unlikely though. [glumly remembers all the things I have thought were unlikely that have now happened]

Thank God for the Lib Dems and their ruthless by-election machine.

[Peregrina]

Thank God for the Lib Dems and their ruthless by-election machine.

They need to get more ex-Tories onside i.e. those who don't really care about politics but go and stick their cross by the Tory candidate's name.

I seriously heard one LD person say that they won the poster war after one election. A fat lot of good it does, if you don't win the seat.

[annandale]

Yes, but they organise locally like no other party. Doesn't mean they always win but they die trying.

[HashiAsLarry]

I seriously heard one LD person say that they won the poster war after one election. A fat lot of good it does, if you don't win the seat.
Did they work in marketing? I know a lot of marketing folk who would say that.

[Peregrina]

I am one, and dying trying doesn't help us when the chips are down.

[RedAndYellowStripe]

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-commonwealth-immigration-visas-tory-mp-fast-track-plan-a7575221.html

So this is the plan after all.
No more EU but recreating in some ways te great Empire by recreating the strong links with Commonwealth countries.

[lalalonglegs]

It looks like More United are going to throw everything at a Labour win in Stoke: they'll bus in volunteers, persuade as many LDs to vote tactically and try to win some soft Tory votes there too to keep that mendacious skidmark from winning. I don't think Labout have it in the bag by any means but if enough people can see that a split vote will mean a Ukip win...

33% turnout is quite low for a parliamentary by-election and that wouldn't favour Ukip.

[Peregrina]

No more EU but recreating in some ways te great Empire by recreating the strong links with Commonwealth countries.

This made me laugh. We have suddenly decided that the Commonwealth matters. Assuming that what really matters to that Tory MP is the White Commonwealth, how many citizens of Australia, Canada and New Zealand will realistically want to come here? We are already losing health care staff in droves to those countries.

As for making it easier for Ghanaians, Indians, Pakistanis etc. to come in, when people talk about too much immigration that is usually who they are referring to.

[SemiPermanent]

Quite happy with strengthening ties with commonwealth countries.
There's nothing 'empire like' about it at all - the commonwealth countries are voluntarily part of the commonwealth.

[Kaija]

Thanks Red.

Not sure how reliable this poll is, but it's interesting:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/11/theresa-may-hard-brexit-public-backlash-icm-poll?CMP=othb-aplnewss_d-2

[Peregrina]

Semi - you may be happy with strengthening Commonwealth ties, but if you have any mixed race friends or relatives, from Commonwealth countries, you will know that casual racism is a fact of life for them now and has been for a long time. Welcoming more will not go down well among large sections of the population.

Not only that, some of the Commonwealth countries feel that they have scores to settle.

[unicornsIlovethem]

Thanks for the new thread, Red. I know there are a few leavers who genuinely would welcome more commonwealth migration in a fair for everyone / same hoops basis.

It won't appease many of the kipper leavers though.

[RedAndYellowStripe]

My issue with it is more tha fcat that apparently Brexit has been won on the idea that we need to restrict immigration but that now we are actually wanting to open the border to other people instead.
If immigration from the EU was such an issue then why is it not an issue from the Commonwealth too.

[prettybird]

Posted this in the dying throes of the last thread.....

I am not British by birth but am naturalised British.

I am however no longer proud to say I'm British Indeed, I will never fill a form in saying British - I will always say Scottish.

This despite spending my year in France explaining, "Je suis ecossaise et britannique. Je ne suis pas anglaise".

I would no longer do that.

[RedAndYellowStripe]

www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-02-10/brexit-means-markets-turn-bearish-on-u-k

Something to think about. Economic forecast aren't that good....

[RedAndYellowStripe]

Hear hear pretty.
That says a lot when people who got the naturalisation start being ashamed of it...

[boredofbrexit]

But we haven't left yet.....runs off.....

[Eeeeeowwwfftz]

Hmmm. These used to be the only measured Brexit threads on the entire internet. Would be nice to get back to that.

In which spirit, as a card-carrying member of that awful liberal metropolitan elite you keep hearing about (which I think means I live in a city and have a salary and a pension), I would like to understand specific points of EU policy and legislation that demonstrably thwarted our own government's attempts to improve the lives of large numbers of ordinary people.

[Kaija]

Sorry, eeeeeow. I've got nothing. Been trying to track down the same elusive thing myself. Turns out it was just the "feeling of sovereignty" we were missing.

[Corcory]

I read the article about commonwealth countries that the MPs are suggesting giving Commonwealth citizens fast track visas. It stated that visitors from the Commonwealth brought in £2bm a year to the UK economy.
I don't think they are talking about people who want to immigrate here but those who want to visit.