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Westministenders: Boris and his friends hand in their homework to be marked.

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RedToothBrush Fri 03-Feb-17 14:10:43

The last week has been depressing for a lot of people.

Even if you are happy about the vote in the Commons, there is a worrying lack of backbone in MPs of all shades.

Then there’s what is going on in the USA which I’m going to quietly ignore in this post except to say that cosying up to Trump still could backfire on all who do for numerous reasons.

It seems like its all over in someways, but there is still plenty going on.

The A50 Bill has only passed stage one. The Government’s deliberate publishing of the White Paper after the vote has left a lot of people with egg all over their face.

Plus its just crap. Actually its not crap. It’s a dog dinner of farcical proportions with no content, faulty data and incorrect details that an A-Level Student did the night before their assignment was due, masquerading as an official government document.

Now its amendment time, which is the serious bit. For an amendment to make it, it will need cross party support. After the government failed to produce a White Paper worth the paper it was written on, and insulted the intelligence of the House of Commons, that could get interesting.

For starters the White Paper says that EU citizens are one of our best bargaining chips. Trouble is a lot of Tory and Labour MPs don’t agree.

In short there is a fair old chance of a government defeat next week at some point. The government don’t want any. Especially not this early. I really think it will be very difficult for the government to provide the assurance MPs will want, even if they crack the whip. They have lost the trust of too many. In voting for the first vote, many MPs will feel they have shown their intent to support leaving and now will get busy on trying to hammer down the details.

Highlights include of the White Paper include the idea that we will still be subject to the ECJ except we won’t. This is ridiculous. We will be subject to ECJ rulings but not be subject to ECJ rulings directly. Eh? What? (Not that we didn’t see this coming). There’s Euroatom and the government doing an impression of Homer Simpson. With a by-election in Copeland on the cards. That story has some time to keep running. As Steve Peers points out, the Leprechauns are going to sort out Northern Ireland for us which is a great political strategy to employ.

Its full of lots of other utter bollocks but those particular points are the ones that are potentially the most problematic for the government. If you don’t think the White Paper screams we are going to get eaten alive by the EU and Trump, you need to get off the hallucinogenics pronto.

If that isn’t awe inspiring enough we also have:

The wonderful mental image of Paul Nuttall kipping on a mattress in a house in Stoke disparately pretending to be a Stokie, nervously hoping that letterbox rattling in the wind isn’t C4 letterbox again and that the coppers don’t pay him a visit in the near future. I confess that whilst my imagination has been kept busy with this, I am disappointed in the lack of video clips of him munching on an Oatcake in a Stoke City shirt, sitting on an Armitage Shanks throne, turning his plate over whilst listening to Robbie Williams and with a Titanic by his side. All at the same time. I think he’s missed a few tricks.

AND

Diane Abbott doing quite possibly even more damage to Labour than them merely rolling over and dying over a50 by pulling a sickie. Her ‘Brexit Flu’ damages the party’s image and Corbyn himself even more. If that’s even possible. Some Labour MPs have demanded an apology.

Labour is starting to look like it’s a ship with rats fleeing this week. MPs have defied a three line whip and quite the Shadow Cabinet (Again). Rumours are that over 7000 members have left. A councillor has defected to the Lib Dems. There was a council by election in Rotherham where Lab lost a seat to the LDs in an area where there has never been as many people vote LD. Nor were there as many remain voters as LD voters. The Parliamentary vote for Unite’s new leader has unsurprisingly selected the anti-Corbyn candidate Gerald Coyne over Len McCluskey. The bookies have dropped the odds on Corbyn leaving Labour before a GE from 6/1 to 2/1 overnight. Oh and Red Ed is being rumoured to be returning to the front bench…

HashiAsLarry Fri 03-Feb-17 14:14:40

Thanks red

Missswatch Fri 03-Feb-17 14:15:51

Kellyanne Conway gets a free pass. She did break the glass ceiling after all smile

Peregrina Fri 03-Feb-17 14:22:10

Placemarking, but I sincerely hope that when they do go to negotiate with the EU, they have something more substantial than the sorry excuse of the White Paper.

Lico Fri 03-Feb-17 14:22:22

Thanks red.

whatwouldrondo Fri 03-Feb-17 14:28:50

Thanks

I was listening to Dianne Abbot on Any Questions a couple of weeks ago and thinking that she could not reconcile her views on Brexit and voting to trigger A50. Turned out I was right, it was a big headache for her grin

taytopotato Fri 03-Feb-17 14:52:10

Delurking but still burying my head in the sand to keep my sanity.

Thanks to all the posters here.

Motheroffourdragons Fri 03-Feb-17 14:54:41

Thanks, Red. Do we think this could be the end of Corbyn ? That would be something...

Badders123 Fri 03-Feb-17 15:01:37

Thanks red.
Totally agree with your summation in your op
Sigh....

HashiAsLarry Fri 03-Feb-17 15:26:23

Don't we need to have the ritual vote for corbyn to herald in autumn though? It's our British Groundhog Day wink

woman12345 Fri 03-Feb-17 15:33:54

smile

OlennasWimple Fri 03-Feb-17 15:37:09

I never thought it entirely fair to criticise Diane Abbott as harshly as she has been in the past for sending her son to a non-state school. But taking a sickie on the day of the most important vote in a generation?? angry

RedToothBrush Fri 03-Feb-17 15:51:51

Daily Express in Fake News Shocker

www.express.co.uk/news/clarifications-corrections/762400/IPSO-rules-against-Express-Brexit-Claim
IPSO rules against Express Brexit Claim

Following the publication of an article in the Daily Express on 22 July 2016, headlined “EU Exit Boosts House Prices”, Paul Haigh complained to the Independent Press Standards Organisation that the Daily Express breached Clause 1 (Accuracy) of the Editors’ Code of Practice.

The complaint was upheld, and IPSO required the newspaper to publish this adjudication. In addition, as the inaccurate information appeared in the front-page headline, IPSO also required the newspaper to publish a front-page reference to this adjudication.

Matthew Holehouse @mattholehouse
Donald Tusk on Trump/Brexit: "We have just one goal: to protect the EU, our European dignity."

Rupert Myers ‏@RupertMyers
America: America first!
Europe: Europe first!
UK: Throw me a frickin' bone here

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
^YouGov. In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or
wrong to vote to leave the EU?^
Right Men 50% WOMEN 41%
Wrong M£N 38% WOMEN 46%
So according to YouGov women appear to be having regrets about BREXIT

I don't think Smithson's conclusion is correct here. I do think that it shows that women are perhaps much less confident about Brexit than men though. Not surprising really...

Peregrina Fri 03-Feb-17 15:57:37

Generally speaking - women are poorer than men, so the effects of Brexit (assuming that the rest of the world doesn't rush in to make humungous trade deals with us), will affect them worse. Perhaps they realise that?

HashiAsLarry Fri 03-Feb-17 16:09:02

Just seen Chuka has tabled an early day motion for PR. Interesting.

RedToothBrush Fri 03-Feb-17 16:15:23

d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3hy4qn55vq/TimesResults_170131_VI_Trackers_W.pdf
Latest YouGov poll

This is interesting:

On a scale of 1 - 10 how likely are you to vote in the next GE (0 = will NOT vote 10 = WILL vote).

Remain
0 - 1%
1 - 0%
2 - 1%
3 - 0%
4 - 2%
5 - 4%
6 - 2%
7 - 4%
8 - 8%
9 - 10%
10 - 68%

Leave
0 - 5%
1 - 1%
2 - 1%
3 - 1%
4 - 1%
5 - 5%
6 - 2%
7 - 4%
8 - 8%
9 - 7%
10 - 64%

Expanding on that Right / Wrong to leave question:
Vote in 2015
CON - 57% right 34% wrong
LAB - 34% right 58% wrong
LD - 33% right 63% wrong
UKIP - 93% 4% wrong

Current voting intension
CON - 64% right 28% wrong
LAB - 29% right 64% wrong
LD - 16% right 78% wrong
UKIP - 94% right 3% wrong

And

If a GE was to be held tomorrow, who would you vote for?
Men:
Con - 32%, Lab - 16%, LD 7%, UKIP - 11%, SNP - 4%, Other - 4%, Don't know - 16%, Wouldn't vote - 11%
Women:
Con - 23%, Lab - 20%, LD - 7%, UKIP 46%, SNP - 4%, Other - 4%, Don't know - 21% Wouldn't vote - 13%

I think there are a few things there that we on MN should take notice of...

whatwouldrondo Fri 03-Feb-17 16:17:20

Chuka is also pushing us to write to our MPs in support of some specific amendments www.open-britain.co.uk/email_your_mp?utm_campaign=obemail25_2&utm_medium=email&utm_source=in

Always nice to se Chuka in my inbox grin

SemiPermanent Fri 03-Feb-17 16:18:13

.

whatwouldrondo Fri 03-Feb-17 16:21:00

Red 46% of women would vote for UKIP? that is a typo? Otherwise I am going to have to give up the will to be a woman as well as British...

woman12345 Fri 03-Feb-17 16:22:35

yikes

woman12345 Fri 03-Feb-17 16:24:04

Oh I see, it's newspaper demographics: the Daily Heil.

HashiAsLarry Fri 03-Feb-17 16:24:24

I always shock when I see any percentage of UKIP voters who think its wrong to leave the EU. Are they just people who can't fill out surveys properly? Or do they just not get the point of UKIP?

whatwouldrondo Fri 03-Feb-17 16:24:49

woman Don't panic, add up the other figures

RedToothBrush Fri 03-Feb-17 16:25:00

Sorry, women intending to vote UKIP should read 6% not 46%!

woman12345 Fri 03-Feb-17 16:28:00

ha ha! Being a mathematical egit is one of my many failings, ron
Maybe I could get a job as a gov adviser.grin

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