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Westministenders. Boris, May and Judgement Day

(991 Posts)
RedToothBrush Fri 20-Jan-17 13:49:03

Well its finally here. The day America changes forever. Good luck planet earth.

Our day of reckoning is beckoning too.

Tuesday is Supreme Court Judgement Day.

At 9.30 Lord Nueberger and the other ten justices will convene and he will read out their judgement.

Contrary to some suggestions this does not mean the decision is necessarily unanimous. It is normal for the Supreme Court to do this.

Nueberger will read any disagreements out as part of the judgment.
Their ruling will be far reaching in its importance however it goes.

A victory for the government will mean a50 can be triggered as and when Theresa May likes. That could be Tuesday afternoon in theory.

If it’s a victory for the claimants then things get much more complicated. It depends on how far the justices go.

It could rule that parliament need to vote on a50.

It could rule that the Great Repeal Act must be passed before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that the Scottish and NI Assemblies must agree to a50 being invoked.

It could rule that the Good Friday Agreement must be resolved before a50 can be invoked.

It could rule that issues over acquired rights must be resolved before invoking a50.

It could draw other conclusions that we have not thought of.

A strong victory for the claimants could seriously hamper May’s plans for Brexit. Which is exactly why she has laid out her vision and has prepared the battle lines ready for her next round of blame laying.

None of this will be because the government has been short sighted.

If there is a strong victory, remember that May could have avoided the situation by accepting the High Court’s ruling in December that she needed Parliament’s consent to trigger a50. Anything more that makes triggering a50 more difficult is her sole responsibility and she had the power to avoid. Much of the right wing press will tell you differently.

We've heard so much about Hard Brexit and Soft Brexit. We should also talk of Democratic and Undemocratic Brexit. How Brexit is managed and how we conduct ourselves is arguably as important to the future as economics. It is right to oppose Undemocratic Brexit. It is important to make that distinction and all the principles that fall under that concept. What opposition there is need to get their shit together on this principle. Using patriotism to stifle this wholly wrong and unhealthy. Saying Brexit must happen no matter what, regardless of how bad it is and regardless of the cost is wrong.

Make the case for democracy. Keep talking about it. Talk about where it is failing and what we must do to strengthen it, not undermine it.

Here lies Labour's policy on Brexit. "We support Democratic Brexit which is the will of the people. This is how we define this. This is what is needed economic and socially." You can find the necessary slogans from this and start defining it outward from that. So far they have failed to capture this sentiment concisely into a soundbite that people can start to develop and push a left wing liberal agenda on their own terms from. Their PR is shocking and they are incoherent. May owned Corbyn at PMQ earlier this week on these grounds. This is not because they have been misrepresented by the press or been the victim of biased media. Its because they have been shit and have failed to set their own agenda and instead are dancing to everyone else's.

Here’s hoping that democracy will win through the challenges of the next few years. Democracy is about elections and referendums, but it is also so much more. It is about on going debate and the freedom of this debate, freedom of the press, a range of political parties and points of view, the independent judiciary, the right to oppose the state, freedom to exercise your legal rights, freedom of speech, an understanding of equality and an understanding and above all else - respect for of all of the above. It does not bode well that much of the right wing press and right wing politicians are telling us differently.

So much hope about our futures now rests with Angela Merkel one way or another.

Meanwhile Corbyn could face a major rebellion over a50 if he pursues a three line whip rather than a free vote. 60 - 80 Labour MPs are threatening not to tow the party line with shadow cabinet resignations potentially also on the cards.

Brace yourselves the roller coaster is just about to hit a one big drop.

WifeofDarth Fri 20-Jan-17 13:51:25

Thank you Red wine

Peregrina Fri 20-Jan-17 13:57:53

Good distinction between Democratic and Undemocratic Brexit. If Brexit is good then it should stand up to scrutiny. Only shady deals need to be done in secret.

Good analysis too of the Remain camp not having the soundbites.
'Take back control' was a brilliant slogan, but I bet no one thought it would mean a dictatorial PM invoking Henry VIII clauses. In so far as they thought anything, they would have expected Parliament to have a say. A court case should Never have been necessary.

howabout Fri 20-Jan-17 14:00:03

Quick place mark. Imo Labour rebels are mad. There are not enough of them to affect the outcome but the disunity over what is already a confused Labour message will hurt both the Leave and Remain elements of Labour support.

HashiAsLarry Fri 20-Jan-17 14:02:05

Thanks again red

woman12345 Fri 20-Jan-17 14:03:27

wine cheers Red!

BigChocFrenzy Fri 20-Jan-17 14:05:52

Thanks for the great summary red

I suspect Clinton and Remain alike may have failed for lack of a 3-word slogan:

"lock her up"
"take back control"
"drain the swamp"

Peregrina Fri 20-Jan-17 14:05:57

Doesn't it depend on how many Labour MPs rebel? May has a slender majority - won't a large enough rebellion bring her Government down?
Then she will need a GE, and will have to put something in a manifesto, Brexit means Brexit just won't cut it. She might win with a majority, in which case she genuinely has a mandate.

RedToothBrush Fri 20-Jan-17 14:12:45

Imo Labour rebels are mad. There are not enough of them to affect the outcome but the disunity over what is already a confused Labour message will hurt both the Leave and Remain elements of Labour support.

Disagree completely. If Brexit is hard and is a bonfire of rights, if they support it then they loose anyway.

The lack of message is the issue that needs to be resolved by any rebellion.

I think that Remain supporting Labour voters would be easier to bring along under those terms in the longer term, whilst simultaneously supporting Brexit.

In the short term, I do not think they can vote with the government without suffice amendments and assurances over certain issues because of the longer term consequences.

The reality is they are damned either way, but they have 66% of their supporters who are Remainers and they need to offer them something if they are going to support Brexit.

At present they are not doing that. Which is why huge parts of their support is currently haemorrhaging in larger number to the Lib Dems.

The talk has been all about how much support they have to loose to UKIP and very little to the LDs. They need to make some ground in this area.

RedToothBrush Fri 20-Jan-17 14:15:15

Peregina, May has the DUP on side too though.

Even if EVERY Labour MP voted against her, with the LDs, SNP and other NI parties she would still win.

They also would need Tory Conservatives. This is why I say this idea of Democratic Brexit has appeal. Its something that can still appeal to them too without betraying their Conservative values.

SemiPermanent Fri 20-Jan-17 14:18:22

.

Motheroffourdragons Fri 20-Jan-17 14:19:22

According to this, Corbyn will not use a 3 line whip for a 50

politicalscrapbook.net/2017/01/corbyn-backs-off-from-forcing-labour-mps-to-vote-for-article-50/

Motheroffourdragons Fri 20-Jan-17 14:19:50

Red, there is no way SNP will vote with her, surely.

Motheroffourdragons Fri 20-Jan-17 14:20:39

Oh I see sorry, I misread. Apologies.

SemiPermanent Fri 20-Jan-17 14:21:13

Thanks red, and thank you to those who took time to explain the NI situation on the other thread. smile

MitzyLeFrouf Fri 20-Jan-17 14:23:32

.

NotDavidTennant Fri 20-Jan-17 14:24:14

Labour are screwed either way I think. One way they'll haemorrhage votes to the Lib Dems, the other to the Conservatives or UKIP.

It would take deft leadership and a strong degree of party discipline for Labour to successfully manoeuvre its way through the Brexit debate, and it currently has neither.

Bolshybookworm Fri 20-Jan-17 14:25:06

The remain slogan should be "Save UK jobs".

Peregrina Fri 20-Jan-17 14:28:31

Yes, a handful of Tory rebels are required too.
What Labour really needs to do is capitalise on the NHS - the Tories record is poor here, and capture it in a soundbite. "May's Brexit will destroy the NHS" or similar.

I note the Tory spokespersons comment about the Labour selection in Copeland.

A Conservative spokesman said the selection was a “victory for the hard left”, adding: “It is clear Gillian Troughton is nothing more than a Corbyn puppet in a Labour party that is too divided and incompetent to stand up and secure the future of Cumbria’s industry and jobs.”

I think nothing could be further from the truth - she's not a Corbynista, is local, ex GP so understands the NHS, has a husband in the local nuclear industry so understands that. As you pointed out in the article you linked to yesterday, she helped see off the BNP so the same tactics against UKIP could work. I gather that the Tories are not popular with Sellafield because they are trying to alter the workers' pension rights. I think they have chosen a strong candidate, and should go all out to capitalise on it.

Bobochic Fri 20-Jan-17 14:28:38

Indeed, Bolshy.

RedToothBrush Fri 20-Jan-17 14:29:35

I agree Labour are screwed either way. They have to play for the long game. That's the best I can see.

'Save UK jobs' is also a decent one but they would also need to be careful about how it frames the EU with that too. They don't want to reinforce the idea of punishment beating from the EU.

woman12345 Fri 20-Jan-17 14:31:40

6 short months ago, this is the list of the 185 tory MPs pro remain:
blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/which-tory-mps-back-brexit-who-doesnt-and-who-is-still-on-the-fence/
and a 2015 (Oh,remember Obama and not waking terrified of Armadeddon and immigration police?) Labour:
labourlist.org/2015/11/the-full-list-of-labour-mps-signed-up-to-pro-eu-campaign/

Bobochic Fri 20-Jan-17 14:32:59

The EU isn't out to punish the U.K. It just isn't going to do the U.K. any flavours at all, and just the doing no flavours will be bad enough (very bad indeed) for UK jobs. Brexit is entirely self-inflicted punishment.

Bobochic Fri 20-Jan-17 14:33:21

favours

woman12345 Fri 20-Jan-17 14:37:46

I agree Labour are screwed either way , this is post party politics, it's to save democracy.
Some one mentioned on another thread, won't Labour MPs be scared of their personal safety and that of their families.
I like what Michelle Obama said when challenged on Barack's safety:
"The realities are that, you know, as a black man, you know, Barack can get shot going to the gas station, you know."
With so many boundary changes, not to mention what tories plan to do to the remaining trade unions, Labour is screwed anyway, at the moment. It's a job of work and they need to get on with fighting for us, no matter how physically dangerous. (We all do)

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