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will the rest of the EU exist in 5 years time?

(12 Posts)
babybarrister Sun 06-Nov-16 13:23:04

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

InfiniteSheldon Sun 06-Nov-16 16:02:45

Well the members will exist as independent states/countries whatever and hopefully the Brussels elite will be sent packing and a trading block will establish without the political meddling and professional gravy train riders. The EU is doomed with or without Brexit.

Draylon Sun 06-Nov-16 17:39:04

baby- sorry, I haven't read the articles but, in answer to your question, I don't think the EU would've been 'the same' in five years' time even had we still been 'in'; which, actually, is one reason why Brexit is a bad idea- because I suspect, looking at the the growth of more nationalist parties in Europe, and increasing anti-immigrant, certainly anti-refugee sentiment, something would have to give, so I imagine there'll be a schism in the EU, and a leader block will emerge, the 'old' western Europe, and subsidiaries with 'links' but lesser power, some formed from the post-USSR Eastern Block, some forming from the financially weaker south, Spain, Italy, Greece, etc. The Euro would've been either dropped or reserved for maybe the Leader Block! Free movement would have provisos attached to it, as would benefit claiming.

Obviously I'd've expected the UK to be in the leader block, but, should this all come to pass, I doubt France or Germany will allow us 'back in' without humble pie and financial pain! Whereas we might've been in the centre of this new reformed EU, making and directing policy. However, I am aware that DC went to Brussels, 'cap in hand', to ask for some concessions and was told a firm 'No(n)' by Junckers. This was pretty dumb of J-C J. He, like DC, absolutely failed to grasp the under-current of discontent stirring in the EU, or, more to the point, its significance. Proper concessions, or the opening up of the possibility of concessions, might've stilled the dark under-bellied beast that now stalks our land.

Unfortunately, DC had already lit the blue touch paper.

Now I'll read the articles!

Draylon Sun 06-Nov-16 17:40:25

Sheldon but I suspect there'd have to be a military agreement, too, in that one of my fears re Brexit hurrying along the demise of the EU is Mother Russia, sabre rattling away.

Antifrank Sun 06-Nov-16 17:47:53

In 5 years the EU will still exist. But in 10? Who knows. There are some existential problems -e.g. the Euro/Greek crisis is not solved. There is a significant migrant problem from Africa and the Middle East. There is a serious benefits/pension issue within the EU states. The Russian Bear is getting quite agitated. How each of these play out, I don't know. But the history of the EU is that it is not good at dealing with crisis on these levels.

vulpeculaveritas Sun 06-Nov-16 18:07:50

The EU will exist in 5 years time, but maybe not as it does now.

It has evolved and changed quite a lot ( despite the claims of others) over quite a (for a political entity) short life span and will change in reaction to new challenges.

StripeyMonkey1 Sun 06-Nov-16 18:46:13

It's hard to say but i would imagine that the EU would still exist in one form or another. Given it was conceived of after the second world war to bind Europe together and to avoid any future wars on a similar scale, I think we can agree that its falling apart would be a big loss.

Of course, the UK might well not exist in 5 years time.

user1478450549 Sun 06-Nov-16 21:27:44

Of course it will. I know the British like to believe that it will fall apart without them, but the rest of Europe can get by perfectly well without the UK!

Juliancopescat Sun 06-Nov-16 22:44:42

It will still exist, probably with stronger environmental legislation and workers rights that UK have been holding up for years for their own nefarious reasons.

Also, Poland abortion law is neither here nor there, Ireland already operates like this. (It's a disgusting proposal law wise but breaches of human rights doesn't bar you from membership- as the UK well knows...)

Also it's a bit rich suggesting other countries would have to be suspended for xenophobia given the campaign, vote and fall out from Brexit within the UK. That's a glass house right there!

lljkk Mon 07-Nov-16 19:58:58

Chances of EU being pretty much the same in 10 yrs (minus Britain): 99.2%

Chances of UK still existing with same territory in 10 yrs: 50%

Peregrina Mon 07-Nov-16 22:24:38

llijkk - I pretty much agree with you. Chances of being in EU in ten years - 90%, possibly reformed into a way we would have found more acceptable.
Someone in the London Review of Books just after the Referendum predicted that we would spend 5 years trying to leave and 5 trying to rejoin, and I agreed with that.

Chance of UK existing in present form - 65%.

Chance of Theresa May lasting for how long as PM???

iwanttoridemybicycle Mon 07-Nov-16 22:44:02

I will be surprised if she manages a year.

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