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Will we leave the EU by 2019?

(9 Posts)
DoNotBringLulu Tue 11-Oct-16 10:48:11

It took Greenland 3 years to leave in the 1980s, and their only industry is fishing.

Brexiteers will be unhappy if it takes longer than two years after article 50 is invoked. I was reading this earlier on:

www.economist.com/news/britain/21707251-britain-will-not-find-it-easy-strike-comprehensive-trade-deals-quickly-not-so-simple

Also, given the legal challenges, does anybody think Theresa May will be able to invoke Article 50 in March next year?

We will be in a difficult position, article 50 weighted in favour of other members of the EU. The Wetherspoons boss, and others think we will be OK relying on WTO, but according to this article it will be a long, torturous road.

Cailleach1 Tue 11-Oct-16 13:11:13

Once the article is triggered, I think the EU have to agree to extend the allotted exiting negotiations window. Once triggered, the clock is ticking and any extension to the 2 year timeframe is subject to both sides allowing it.

I don't even have a notion of what will happen. It all appears to be beyond the realms of planet earth.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine Tue 11-Oct-16 13:16:57

As Cailleach said, it won't go beyond two years. Once article 50 is triggered we have two years, unless every single EU country agrees to an extension and I can't see that happening. After that two years we are out of the EU, whether or not we are "ready"

It is very likely that trade will it be that high on the agenda - need to sort out of the legal bits first. Also worth noting that we cannot simply fall back on WTO rules - we are in the WTO as part of the EU, not as an individual country so will need to negotiate WTO terms within the two years too.

fakenamefornow Tue 11-Oct-16 13:22:30

Yes, once A50 is triggered it won't be up to us anymore.

We won't be 'ready' though.

Mistigri Tue 11-Oct-16 14:52:07

If A50 is triggered, yes. It's a long way down and there won't be a parachute.

However, jury is still out on whether A50 does actually happen next year. I know Davis and Fox are cretinous enough to do it, but I hang onto a slim hope that May might not be.

SapphireStrange Tue 11-Oct-16 14:55:17

We will leave, and it will be the political equivalent of being kicked out the door with one shoe on, the wrong bag clutched in our fist, no car keys, having not eaten.

I think May will be brought down eventually, but I think we'll have to leave the EU and make the total fuck-up of it that we're going to before that happens.

itsawonderfulworld Tue 11-Oct-16 21:23:09

Once article 50 is triggered, the clock starts ticking and we will be out exactly 2 years later. Will we be ready? Will we have shiny new trade deals in place by then? Hell no.
Better hope the UK starts producing a LOT of goods in the next 30 months as importing anything, including food, will suddenly get a lot more complicated and expensive...

lalalonglegs Tue 11-Oct-16 22:28:06

I still can't believe any leader would be cretinous or hubristic enough to trigger Article 50 in these circumstances but my faith in out government's common sense is being severely tested at the moment.

Lovewhereilive Tue 11-Oct-16 22:44:31

I am praying that May is a double agent and is behaving so recklessly for a reason. To go from being a remainer to a hard brexiter, with no apparent regard for the self-inflicted horrendous damage to our economy and lives, is hard to take in.

I am also praying that she had a cunning plan putting the 3 clowns, Johnson, Fox and Davis in the positions she did. confused

I need to sort out an escape plan for my family, just in case I'm wrong sad

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