Scotland

[Muddle2000]

I get so confused with this Brexit business Sorry
So they are going for Ref to leave the UK and then
plan to stay in the EU?
Is that right?

[dementedpixie]

I don't think they are rushing into another referendum plus I don't think we would fit the criteria to stay in the EU without being in the union with England.

[53rdAndBird]

It's unclear whether there will be another independence referendum in the near future. Maybe, maybe not.

Scottish population voted Remain by a fair margin; Scottish government's position is that it wants to stay in the EU and will investigate all options to do that. This got cross-party support from the Scottish Parliament, it's not just an SNP thing. But we have no idea whether that's possible in or out of the U.K.

Theresa May has said she wants to involve all the devolved administrations in working out the Brexit deal, and that we won't go ahead until there's a whole-UK approach. As for what that means... your guess is as good as mine.

[prettybird]

The OP implies that it is not consistent to want to leave the UK but want to remain in/rejoin the EU.

That assumes that more sovereignty is ceded to the EU than to Westminster - and that the UK decision to Brexit was based on sovereignty and not immigration

Individual countries have a right of veto on major issues in the EU. Scotland has no such right in Westminster. Even when 56 of the Scottish MPs (and on occasion 58 MPs) vote for/against something, they are outvoted.

So yes, I'm comfortable with wanting independence and wanting to remain part of the EU.

[Thunderwing]

In the previous Indyref I voted against independence. I firmly believed that the UK was stronger as a union and to go it alone would be a mistake.

In terms of the EU referendum my feelings are the same - we are stronger as a union than as individual entities.

If Indy2 goes ahead with a mandate of remaining in the EU as an independent country, then they will have my vote.

[RortyCrankle]

The UK is a single member state of the EU and Scotland cannot arbitrarily decide to remain in the EU.

Once we leave, it's then up to Scotland to hold another indi referendum, which, if won by the Outs, would enable them to apply for EU membership which may take some years and which may be opposed by countries such as Spain who have separatist issues.

I believe Scotland would also need to apply for membership of NATO.

[Thunderwing]

I get confused with the Spain issue - the UK is made up of different countries. Scotland, Wales & NI are all individual nations which have history of independence.

The Basque country is an autonomous community which has, AFAIK, never been an independent country although it wants to be.

If Yorkshire were campaigning for independence I could get Spain's point, but Scotland is not the same.

And yes, I'm sure we would need to apply for NATO membership, which is not an issue in my eyes.

[Peregrina]

As far as I can tell, Catalonia has never been an independent country but used to be part of Aragon, which then united with Castile to form modern day Spain. So if Scotland gained Independence from the rest of the UK by proper constitutional means, I don't think that would give Spain grounds to protest. I imagine that they could veto a Membership application though, simply because they chose to do so.

[AntiqueSinger]

Please feel free to correct me. Haven't done a lot of research on this specific point, but I think someone said on one of these EU threads that Scotland does a higher percentage of its trading (exports?) with the UK and that going independent in order to remain in the EU would be cutting off the nose to spite the face so to speak. Is this true? Or complete rubbish? (Tired insomniac here)

[Corcory]

Yes you are right Singer. I think the figure is 4 times as much trade is done with the rest of the UK by Scotland than with the EU. So if we went independent England would then become a foreign country that we would have to try and do a trade deal with!
Half our oil and gas is sold to England and Wales. If we couldn't do that any more or had tariffs imposed what on earth would that do to the oil industry if we lost our major export area!
I'd love to hear from the posters on here that said they would now vote independent. Prettybird and thunderwing What are your views?

[Mistigri]

The Scottish parliament has published a cross-party preliminary report on the implications of Brexit for Scotland:

www.parliament.scot/Reports/EUS052016R01.pdf

It begs the question why we haven't had more of substance from the UK parliament, where the only serious attempts to consider the issue have been produced by a backbencher (Andrew Tyrie) and a former member of the coalition government (Clegg).

[STIDW]

Nicola Sturgeon & the SNP recognise that small countries need to try & get on with their neighbouring countries.

In a year Scotland typically sells £50bn in goods & services to the rest of the UK. The rest of the UK sells £63bn in goods and services to Scotland. Therefore if there is enough support for another referendum & Scotland voted for independence it would be in Scotland's & the rest of the UK's interests to continue trading. Also a lot of financial firms currently based in London have expressed an interest in relocating to an independent Scotland to remain in the single market.

As for Scotland's membership of the EU there is a legal/human rights argument that it can remain a member by treaty amendment rather than having to go through the full accession procedure. Guy Verhofstadt, who has just been appointed the chief negotiator for the EU Parliament response to Brexit, sees no big obstacle to an independent Scotland being granted automatic entry to the EU.

[STIDW]

wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/strasbourg.jpg

[prettybird]

Found this Full Fact article which is interesting.

Although it is a couple of years old, I don't see that the proportions would've changed that much. In addition to the points that STDIW has just made, the proportion of exports to the England compared to the EU is not "4 times" and although it caveats the figures as they are not easy to calculate, it suggests that less than half of the oil and gas is sold to England.

There are also anomalies thanks to the the burden of the overpopulated South East of England. Things like the fact that despite the fact that Scotland is usually self-sufficient in energy, the power generators in Scotland have to pay to put their energy into the National Grid, while generators in the South get paid instead because it's based on proximity to population centres.

In any event, for me personally, independence is not simply about the economics (although important), it is about self-determination. It's about making our own choices - and yes, on occasion, our own mistakes. It means we can't blame Westminster for our woes.

Ironically, a true federal solution or full fiscal autonomy (just paying for certain supranational requirements like defence which unfortunately would include Trident) would probably have satisfied up me up until a few years ago. But now I'm not sure I would trust anything that was proposed - unless, like happened in Ireland (but without the bloodshed that happened there), it was a stepping stone to full independence.

[AntiqueSinger]

Thank you for clarifying corcory. All very interesting. Prettybird In the event of Scotland becoming independant would you also be happy to adopt the Euro?

[STIDW]

In the event of Scotland becoming independant would you also be happy to adopt the Euro?

It may be some time before Scotland even qualifies to join the Euro & in the meantime there appears to be no real reason why it can't use the £, officially or unofficially.

stv.tv/news/politics/1346145-independent-scotland-can-use-the-pound-unofficially-says-former-bank-chief/

[prettybird]

As STIDW says, it would be a while before we would be allowed to join the Euro anyway.

There is a requirement to follow the ERM for a period and then there are certain fiscal criteria that need to be met. While countries except the UK are required to commit to join the Eurozone once they meet the criteria, there are some countries Sweden and Denmark that for some strange reason never quite meet those criteria, so continue to use their own currency.

I agree with STIDW that we could choose to use the £ unofficially, if we want to (just as many countries choose to use the American $). My own preference is for a Scottish pound to shadow the £ in the way that the punt did for many years. But I'm no longer an economist (my economics degree was 30 years ago ) so although I can see advantages for the different options, I'd rather let the true experts come up with a view.

Setting up a Central Bank would be a cost - but the Bank of England (which is misnamed as it is the Bank of the UK) would also take a hit when the Scottish banks withdraw the "special notes" that they lodge with the BoE in return for printing their own money, so it would all depend on the separation negotiations.

I have no objection in principle with using the Euro.