Why does no one talk about the EU - South Korea trade deal?(6 Posts)
Negotiated in under two years, doesn't require free movement, includes free trade in services. Looks like a better deal than Norway and Switzerland have!
It seems like an ideal template for the UK and EU, yet everyone says that setting up a trade agreement will take absolutely years and years. That's demonstrably not the case, is it?
Actually it took four years. Negotiations started in May 2007 and the agreement came into effect in July 2011.
Of course the basis of every trade agreement is what each side wants from the other. Naturally those elements would be different in the case of trade between South Korea and the EU and between the UK and the EU.
The UK will need a trade agreement of some sort with the EU. The EU will want the UK to allow freedom of movement, amongst other things. If the UK is not prepared to accept freedom of movement, there will be other things it will have to concede. Time alone will tell what those might be.
We'll need some negotiators, too. If we only have 3.5 of them talking to the EU, it will take rather longer than 4 years.
Ah common sense, logic and positivity you'll get no joy here
Ah yes, the Andrea Leadham example of how a future post hard Brexit economy could run
that had me shouting at the radio Here is a list of South Korea's trading partners by exports
China: US$137.1 billion (26% of total Korean exports)
United States: $70.1 billion (13.3%)
Hong Kong: $30.4 billion (5.8%)
Vietnam: $27.8 billion (5.3%)
Japan: $25.6 billion (4.9%)
Singapore: $15 billion (2.9%)
India: $12 billion (2.3%)
Taiwan: $12 billion (2.3%)
Mexico: $10.9 billion (2.1%)
Australia: $10.8 billion (2.1%)
Saudi Arabia: $9.5 billion (1.8%)
Philippines: $8.3 billion (1.6%)
Indonesia: $7.9 billion (1.5%)
United Kingdom: $7.9 billion (1.5%)
Malaysia: $7.7 billion (1.5%)
Notice a pattern? Over 55% of exports are to neighbouring Asian countries, China, Japan, India, and the ASEAN trading bloc i.e dependent on regional alliances.
The biggest EU trading partner, the U.K. Accounts for just 1.5 % of it's exports, the EU overall for around 5%, and the value of imports from the EU is the same, around £40 billion, and both imports and exports are basically manufactured goods, not services.
So it was a relatively simple trading agreement to negotiate with a trading partner who is mainly focused on exporting manufactured goods to Asian markets, and importing coal, commodities and food from local trading partners. Neither the South Korean economy or it's trading relationship with the EU is remotely comparable to the UK economy, with it's service sector being by far the most profitable, or the complexity of it's economic and other relationships with the EU. There would not be for instance the thorny issues of the financial services passport, or collaboration / funding for Science and technology /Erasmus, the main sources of competitiveness and profitable trade for the UK.
That is unless you see the UK's divorce from the EU being such a hard Brexit the EU ends up by accounting for only 5% of UK trade, and limited to a few cars and gas turbines, no financial services, no collaboration on Science and technology, in which case where is the other 45 % of profitable trade going to be with to avoid the UK economy shrinking by almost a half.
if the answer is the Commonwealth and China please tell me how, what strategy would you have for the UK exploiting those markets? Because for personal and career reasons nobody would be happier than me if we could massively expand our markets in China........ It is just I am realistic.....
Oh and South Korea's GDP is about half of the UK's so that was what Andrea Leadham was offering us as a future model......
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