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Sunderland Documentary/News Articles

(73 Posts)
smallfox2002 Wed 10-Aug-16 08:07:17

There's a documentary on Sky tonight by Faisal Islan about Sunderland and the reasons it voted out.

The article, and the programme do not appear to cast leave voters in a very good light, this goes along with previous TV pieces, and one recently by the New York Times, who sent a reporter to Sunderland to find out.

So, snapshot of reality, or more smearing of the leave campaign?

SapphireStrange Wed 10-Aug-16 10:06:48

Snapshot of a section of reality, I'd say. Of course some Leave voters voted out of ignorance and/or misplaced resentment.

But the result is a patchwork of things. Educated, comfortably off people voted leave as well. I'd like to hear more from the Tory shires, personally, on their reasons for voting leave -- except I'd probably throw a shoe through the telly--

Dapplegrey2 Wed 10-Aug-16 13:30:29

"The article, and the programme do not appear to cast leave voters in a very good light, "
That will make you happy then, smallfox, won't it.

Sooverthis Wed 10-Aug-16 13:36:19

Oh goody Small finally absolute proof that we're all selfish stupid idiots and you were RIGHT all along

SapphireStrange Wed 10-Aug-16 13:51:43

The OP asked an open and equivocal question: 'So, snapshot of reality, or more smearing of the leave campaign?'

No need for the immediate aggression.

ManonLescaut Wed 10-Aug-16 14:04:28

It was very depressing. Poor Shirley voting for that money to go to the NHS.

Only 3% of the population are immigrants, despite immigration being a common concern. And it does 'more trade with the EU than any other region'.

caroldecker Wed 10-Aug-16 14:29:16

Manon more trade per capita and entirely due to all the Nissan cars. Cars will be free trade with Europe because the Europeans cannot afford to lose our custom.
Why does it show them in a 'poor' light?

SapphireStrange Wed 10-Aug-16 14:33:18

Manon, other EU nationals make up more like 5% of the population, no? Still tiny, obviously.

Peregrina Wed 10-Aug-16 14:38:30

Cars will be free trade with Europe because the Europeans cannot afford to lose our custom.

You hope that's the case, but who can say with any certainty? Isn't it just as likely that Nissan will decide that since Labour costs are cheaper in eastern Europe and there are willing hard workers there, that new investment will be located there instead? At the very least, it would depend on what deal we could strike.

TheElementsSong Wed 10-Aug-16 15:17:46

I must have missed the part in OP's post where they called all <insert group> anything.

ManonLescaut Wed 10-Aug-16 15:44:19

Nissan needs more than free trade, it needs the single market.

ManonLescaut Wed 10-Aug-16 15:50:35

Well the article claims 3%.

"Figures from 2014 estimated there to be 40,000 European Union migrants and 42,000 non-EU migrants in the region, out of a total population of 2.5 million."

Badders123 Wed 10-Aug-16 15:52:41

Pretty depressing op tbh.
"project fear" indeed.
Or "reporting fact" as it has become sad

Badders123 Wed 10-Aug-16 15:55:27

Have there been any decent accessible articles or tv or radio programmes as to why the areas with the least (or in some cases practically non existent) immigration voted leave and used fears over immigration as the main reason?
Coz I'm still pretty baffled 🤔

caroldecker Wed 10-Aug-16 15:59:19

Manon Nissan will still have the single market for EU cars. It already makes different cars for the UK.

SapphireStrange Wed 10-Aug-16 16:21:40

Manon, I think by its nature it's an inexact measurement. I go by though, who are pretty sound IME. (and either way, I'm not disagreeing with you –this idea that we're 'full up' with immigrants is utterly false.)

smallfox2002 Wed 10-Aug-16 16:26:39

Single market access is not guaranteed at all, Nissan also have an alliance with Renault so it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to see production moving.

It depends on what deal we get, the European car companies certainly wouldn't like to lose our trade but it depends on how demand is effected by price. If demand is relatively price inelastic then an increase because of tariffs won't deter buyers too much.

Peregrina Wed 10-Aug-16 16:44:36

If demand is relatively price inelastic then an increase because of tariffs won't deter buyers too much.

I wonder how inelastic it is? I imagine that there must be a point where the price rise makes the consumer defer buying or replacing a car. E.g. if a car I wanted to purchase went up in price by £500 I could probably afford that and would pay up. A £1000 price increase would make me stop and think and probably hold off for a while.

caroldecker Wed 10-Aug-16 17:19:26

Current duty to import into the EU is 10%, so the default position if no deal at all.
The main cost of a car is in the fixed development and manufacturing costs, both for the manufacturer, supply chain and dealerships so price is adjusted to maintain volume of sales. The 10% hit will be bourne by the manufacturers, hence the demand in France, Spain, Germany for free trade in autos and related parts.

smallfox2002 Wed 10-Aug-16 17:49:27

I don't think the 10 percent hit will matter that much to volkswagen, BMW or.Mercedes, it will.make.a bigger difference to production here.

caroldecker Wed 10-Aug-16 18:41:31

Small Why?

PattyPenguin Wed 10-Aug-16 19:23:26

There's an interesting article on the BBC website about the future of Nissan's Sunderland plant.

Some snippets:
"The Franco-Japanese group makes its plants bid against each other to win significant new production contracts, with Sunderland facing stiff competition from Renault plants in continental Europe.

Nissan has previously said that future investment in the UK will depend on a "number of important factors, including the UK's trade and tariff negotiations with the European Union"..."

"However, sources have told Newsnight that this presents a looming issue for Sunderland.

Bidding is expected towards the end of next year or in early 2018 for the latest model of the Qashqai, Nissan's popular "crossover" vehicle. The new model would be slated for launch in 2020.

It seems unlikely that the UK will have finalised its trading arrangements with the EU within that time frame.

So under those circumstances, would Sunderland even be able to bid to build the latest Qashqai model? Or would the plant have to include potential trade tariffs into its calculations, driving up the costs of its bid?"

So the Sunderland plant's prospects are far from clear.

caroldecker Wed 10-Aug-16 20:16:23

All car plants need to justify their existence regardless of Brexit. It always depends on capacity and Renault (which outvotes Nissan) will always choose a French plant rather than a UK one as it is 20% owned by the French government. Brexit makes no difference to the future of the Sunderland plant.

smallfox2002 Wed 10-Aug-16 21:31:06

As outlined above Carol, brexit makes a huge difference to the future of the Sunderland plant, the decision on where to base future production lines will be massively influenced by this. If we don't have tariff free access Nissan in Sunderland will cut production.

In my answer to your previous question, the main factors influencing demand for BMW, Mercedes, Audi and a lot of Volkswagen branded cars are not price.

The Beamer, Merc and Audi brands are particularly safe because there is only one British company that could be seen to be a substitute and that is Jaguar, but there are further determinants for the demand. Quality, the brand image, after market servicing, re sale value all come in to this decusion and are more dominant than price and here's why.

Someone wanting to spend 30 -100k on a car ( where these cars are generally priced) is not going to be put off from one car to another by a 10% difference in price, for example if you think the BMW 5 series ( between 31 and 51,00 depending on specification) is the best one, you aren't going to lump for another car because its slightly cheaper. Essentially if you think the beamer at £34,100 is a better car than the equivalent Jag at £31,000 you're still going to have the beamer.

At the lower end, UK built cars would be more competitive in the market where price is a major factor, but I don't think it will make it quite as competitive as is being made out here.

Lets take again the Nissan Pulsar, which is a reasonably priced family hatch back, now it has to compete already has to compete against a large number of cars in the market which are cheaper, so the tariff may make it more competitive with them. But again other the factors come into play here, a price difference between the British made Nissan/Toyota/Honda/Vauxhal of between of between £1,000 and £2,000 and another brand may not be enough to change the customer's decision from another brand.

Also on top of this, the full effect of a 10% price difference may not actually be felt because a number of the components for all of these cars are imported from factories in the EU and of course will be subject to tariffs too! On top of rising energy and raw material costs, the full 10% impact may not be felt and therefore the British built cars will not be as competitive in the UK market as we would hope them to be. Essentially if the price difference is 7-8% rather than 10% price probably won't make that much of a difference at this level either.

The issue is further exacerbated by the fact that Nissan Sunderland exports about 70% of its products to the EU, these cars would be less competitive with the European made cars with their tariff, but also will have the slightly increased costs of production to add on too. With a larger range of choice of vehicles that do not have the tariff on them, would Nissan remain as competitive in the EU as it would need to be for Sunderland to continue being its main plant?

240,000 of the cars produced at Sunderland last year were Qashqui, ore than half of its output. With the new range aiming to start production in 2020, Sunderland is unlikely to get the investment that will replace this production line as planning and investment would have to start in the near future.

Combine all of the above with Nissan having plants in Spain and has the alliance with Renault, I don't see a rosy future for Sunderland.

Now thankfully our luxury car market will not be effected, no buys a Porsche over an Aston because the price has changed by 10%, and certainly not a Bentley or Roller.

Peregrina Wed 10-Aug-16 21:49:54

caroldecker I was a bit bemused by your insistence that Brexit wouldn't affect the Sunderland car plant. What do you know that the senior management don't know?

I have friends at the BMW plant in Oxford. The last I heard from them they had been told it was a 'we will wait and see' policy, but in the back of their minds was the possibility that jobs could go. The area voted heavily for Remain, as it happens.

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