Westministenders Continues. The one where are being grateful for having a Boris rather than a Trump and UKIP show Labour how it’s done.(986 Posts)
THE BREXIT FALLOUT CONTINUES - THREAD TWELVE
The calm of the eye of the storm is upon us. The signs are there that more trouble is ahead. What now for Brexit, the blank cheque for our future?
May’s honeymoon can only last the Summer, until she has to do some proper graft. Her Cabinet have all gone on holiday and to swat up on their new specialised subject, and by god have they got some homework to do.
Well, all of them apart from Liam Fox, who has bugger all to do for some time.
Johnson needs to… well we all know what Boris needs to do. Bend over and take it like a good boy.
Davies needs to learn the entire structure and workings of the EU and its variations of trade agreements and relationships with other nations. Juncker has the FUKD in his little black book of people who have crossed him (yes, he actually has one of these) and has put Brit Hating Barnier in charge of the EU Brexit team. Davies must somehow hold his own against this experienced EU hardnut. In French. Oh and find a permanent office.
What do the others need to learn? Hammond - how to perform a bloody miracle. Patel - it is illegal to use foreign aid as a leverage for trade deals. Leadsom – er everything? Rudd – how to do bigger assault on liberty and human rights than her mentor. Fallon – how we will afford to defend ourselves with pitch forks, especially if we can’t use Trident for some reason and it becomes necessary. Our enemy; Russia? North Korea? Turkey? Isis? Na. Trump if he wins.
Brexit is now officially in the hands Whitehall’s unbelievers. Those overstretched officials who are already saying there is a gap in their capacity to deliver what Parliament wants without additional the burden of Brexit. These discredited experts are left wondering if their challenge is, in reality, Mission Impossible, and this is made worse by the pressure that just about every senior Brexiteer seems to say is ‘easy’ despite all the mounting evidence to the contrary. Which is cold comfort to everyone who voted – Remain or Leave alike.
We still don’t even know what Brexit is. It is still something which has no coherent ideology and no clear set of prescriptions for what ailes us as a society. It is a bundle of contradictions, united chiefly by what, and who, it opposes. Whatever the problem, Brexit can fix it. Whatever the threat, internal or external, Brexit can vanquish it, and it is unnecessary for Brexiteers to explain how.
May’s plan? Some say that she is the Dear Leader, some say she is an evil genius with Larry the Cat on her lap waiting for the Brexiteer Boys to fuck it up so we can Remain, some say she is blessed by the Ghost of Thatcher but we know her as The PM. –Sorry I’ve been itching to make the May/Hammond Top Gear gag for several weeks— The truth is, we just don't know yet.
Plus anything Brexit related about the Labour and UKIP leadership and the rest of the world thrown in to boot.
This is the quest for the answers that everyone wants and trying to keep an eye on those politicians and accountability (both here and abroad in the era of post-fact politics in the trail of Brexit). There maybe no single ‘truth’ but there sure as hell is a lot of bullshit to wade through. Get your wellies out, and plough on through with us.
No experience necessary. Sense of humour required.
Brexit Fall Out Timetable
Labour Hustings Nottinghamshire: Wednesday 17th August
Labour Hustings Birmingham: Thursday 18th August.
Labour Hustings Glasgow: Thursday 25th August.
Labour Hustings London: Thursday 1st September
UKIP Leadership Result: 15th September
Labour Leadership Result: Saturday 24th September
The Department for Exiting the European Union first question sessions in Parliament: Thursday 20th October
High Court hearing on a50: due 'no earlier than the third week in October'
US Presidential Election: 8th November
French Presidential Election 1st Round: 23 April 2017
French Presidential Election 2nd Round: 7th May 2017
German Federal Election: Between 27 August and 22 October 2017
Summary of Brexit problems and obstacles that seem to be cropping up as its starting to become a long list:
◾ Those trade negotiators who we completely lack, seeing as all ours work for more money than the PM in Brussels and are rabid Europhiles who don’t really wish to commit career suicide to work for FUKD. Apparently the few dozen we maybe have a task akin “trying to bail an Olympic swimming pool with a thimble” and recruiting people up to the job, “isn’t like finding 300 tax collectors, it’s like finding 300 nuclear physicists.” Joy.
◾There are rumours of “funnelling a load of inexperienced fast-streamers” into the Brexit Department and deliberately not employing people with EU experience as they are worried they will be biased.
◾The sheer lack of understanding by key Brexiteers in what is involved in modern day trade agreements.
◾Those legal challenges to a50 which have forced it to the High Court to decide if it’s a Royal Prerogative or not. Clearly it’s not clear that a50 is clear. We’ll just sit twiddling our thumbs for years whilst the courts and government pretend it’s not urgent and no one is losing their jobs or industry or entire future in the meantime.
◾Those legal challenges over referendum funding which might appear especially as we get closer to the deadline date for expenses. (December folks. Watch this space)
◾The fact that a50 was written by diplomats not lawyers, with the view that it would never be used and could never be used. Mainly since you can do bugger all in 2 years when it comes to trade.
◾The fact that lots of the Lords, don’t like Brexit, as they see it as a threat to our future, and could threaten to block it.
◾The fact that limbo land doesn’t look too clever and any deal is likely to take ‘up to six years’ according to the wisdom of Hammond. (And this is felt to be conservative by many).
◾The fact that the EU have said no more money for development whilst we are in limbo. Likewise it seems for research. Of course we are obliged to pay in still. The Germans and the French are eyeing up defectors in the meantime.
◾No one will talk to us seriously about future trade deals whilst we are in Brexit limbo. (And technically we are not allowed to)
◾We seem to owe the EU a lot of money, which we’ll have to cough up before leaving
◾The EU is doing its best to remove us even though we are still a member by giving us the cold shoulder, meaning we are out of the loop already so to speak despite still being a member.
◾The implications to regional development, the city, agriculture, science, education etc all needing major restructuring to accommodate Brexit.
◾The mild inconveniences of NI and the Good Friday agreement, Scotland and Indy Ref2, Gibraltar and its 96% Remain mandate, and the crown dependencies of Guernsey, Jersey and the Isle of Man that didn’t get a vote but want a say.
And that’s not all of it. Wait until the people start getting frustrated about it not moving quickly enough and the Daily Mail, Sun and Express are unable to say that ‘Britain is Booming’ any longer. All the fault of the Brexit unbelieving Infidels of course.
Some are suggesting that Brexit will have to be resolved by an EU Treaty now, as a50 is a tool of diplomats not lawyers, and we can not pass it easily through parliament otherwise nor even take the repeal of the Common Markets Act of 1972 route which has been the answer most have suggested so far. Of course the changes are that this would require may require a referendum to pass (Of course in no way is this a ‘2nd Referendum’ folks).
There is also some suggestion that May will look to bypass Juncker completely and not let her three stooges take the lead by going straight to all 28 leaders instead. Herself.
Who is left running the country and stopping the imminent protests, strikes and even potential riots in her absence, in this scenario, is anyone’s guess.
We need to acknowledge the problems rather than pretend they don’t exist regards of how we voted and what we now think should happen.
Thanks Red. Of course there will be pretty significant demographic changes before either the referendum to work out how the hell were actually going to go this or the next general election take place. If these have a different outcome it would add to the uncertainty for that much longer...
What a brilliant summary.
The only thing you missed out was Mark Carney at the Bank of England trying his best to pour oil on the stormy waters
but not sure there's enough oil! and be a calm centre in the middle of this chaos (sorry for the mixed metaphor).
Checking in to the new thread, the most informative on here by a long shot.
Excellent summary Red.
This is genius:
"We still don’t even know what Brexit is. It is still something which has no coherent ideology and no clear set of prescriptions for what ailes us as a society. It is a bundle of contradictions, united chiefly by what, and who, it opposes. Whatever the problem, Brexit can fix it. Whatever the threat, internal or external, Brexit can vanquish it, and it is unnecessary for Brexiteers to explain how. "
That's summed it all up, fantastic, thanks!
One thing to add to the calendar: 5th Sept - the debate in Parliament responding to the online petition which now has 4,142,130 signatures.
Interesting to look at the attached UK map showing where the signatories are from. Even though Scotland and NI 'voted Remain', most support for a 2nd referendum, in terms of numbers, comes from England. (Larger % of Scottish vote for Remain still represents fewer actual votes than the England lower Remain %)
There is a fake poll doing the rounds on twitter:
YouGov (04/08/16) - Snap poll post Labour Leadership Debate
Joe Twyman @JoeTwyman 10m10 minutes ago
@philjardine01 I am not aware of YouGov running any snap poll and I am Head of Political Research at YouGov. Do you know something I don't?
although I think the originating tweet was just deleted. There are retweets and Smith-blaming aplenty though.
Been away for a few days, sans wifi so have spent ages catching up on my reading. These threads are keeping me very well informed I realised as I weighed into several discussions with friends on the break!
Trouble is they then assume you can answer all their political queries and post Brexit everyone has so many queries!
"We still don’t even know what Brexit is."
Don't be silly, Red - we all know perfectly well that Brexit means Brexit!
Some more dates for the diary:
Far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) look set to make gains
Result of the ruling coalition collapsing in June. This is their second election in less than a year. Centre-Left expected to win, but far-right could do well as they have been at the frontline of the migrant crisis
Obviously lots of nationalist success recently could prove to be a pain in the bum for the Spanish government here
Referendum on constitutional change
If the PM looses, then he has said he would quit, which could mean big gains in a subsequent general election for Five Star who are doing well in the polls. Therefore, I guess, there could be potential to end up another Brexit type vote
Presidential Election Re-Run
A result of the previous result being declared void over counting irregularities. The Far-Right candidate previously lost out by a few hundred votes. He is in the lead in the polls and could become the EU's first far right leader
Referendum on migration
About whether the country should accept a mandatory number of migrants imposed by Brussels under its relocation scheme. Polls show that Hungary is likely to reject the scheme and would be a legal headache for the EU
The current left leaning prime minister is looking weak and could be challenged by a Eurosceptic leader if the election goes badly
Europhile parties look likely to do well
Left leaning Social Democrats did well at recent local elections in June
Also something going round on Facebook about Trump bailing out of the race. I wonder...?
Saw an article in the Irish Times recently (more an op ed) ruminating about the form a reunited Ireland might take (a federated republic).
Also 'Goldman Sachs has become the latest international corporation to warn that it may “restructure” its British operations as a result of the UK’s decision to leave the European Union.'
First by-election result in:
Silverdale & Parksite (Newcastle under Lyme) result:
LAB: 56.4% (+19.5)
UKIP: 24.6% (-21.2)
CON: 11.3% (-0.4)
IND: 7.6% (+7.6)
LAB gain (TheBathroomSink pointed out this was a UKIP seat but the councillor become an Independent after quitting the party). I'd say this is a good very solid result for Labour, since the area voted heavily Leave.
REMAIN (37%) LEAVE (63%) on a turnout of 74%
Sorry, but, Italy has a party called Five Star?
Excellent intro Red.
Here's a joke from David Allen Green following the rumours that the Brexit office is currently having to conduct its meetings in Starbucks:
Starbucks, Victoria St.
May: Small latte.
Barrista: What about the froth?
[Looks at Davis, Fox, Johnson]
May: They will have lattes too.
Beaver (Ashford, Kent) result:
UKIP: 42.1% (+11.6)
LAB: 27.4% (-3.3)
CON: 27.1% (+0.2)
GRN: 3.5% (-3.8)
UKIP gain from LAB
That's a big result for them.
Colorado looks like it will now go Clinton's way.
One of the big respected pollsters, saying that Clinton is looking solid after the conventions and gives prediction taking bounce into consideration. Also agrees with the Colorado assessment.
Clinton is supposed to have also relaxed advertising in Virginia. Its a sign of confidence that her Vice President being from Virginia has now secured the State.
In completely unrelated stuff, but somewhat patriotically, the Olympics kick off tomorrow. I can't help but feel, in the wake of all the controversy surrounding the games so far this time, that we didn't half do a good job as a nation in 2012 all things considered. sigh Not for the first time I'm saying can we just go back to 2012 again please and start rerun the last four years?
I know Silverdale and Parksite.
Good result for Labour.
LOL @ the YouGov & phil Jardine tweets
Also LOLling wryly at "we all know Brexit means Brexit" and nano-consolations 😂😂
Still a nearly a quarter of a year before the department of Brexit have to answer any questions in our parliament, I see.
Will we have an opposition by then?
People saying Clinton will win makes me nervous.
I can't deal with another 4am where Huw Edwards tells me the sky has fallen down.
Complacency is dsngerous.
I'm equally worried by the polling saying Clinton will win. I think the whole notion of trump is so far out of the norm that any and all polls should be taken with a hefty pinch of salt.
doin - we are in the same neck of the woods, or relatively close, anyway
Excellent Summary as usual Red.
Speaking of nostalgia, I've just read Stuart Maconie's Hope and Glory written around the time of the 2010 election. It seems almost rosy now. He has a chapter on the Blair victory and the optimism of the time seems a very different world now.
Red: once more an excellent summary. These threads are keeping me sane, after the result.
Good to see Labour win in Silverdale and Parksite - a traditional heartland, I would say, so good to see that they can get back votes, despite all the leadership infighting. This may simply be a question of once a UKIP Person gets in, they are totally useless, and get booted out next time.
Bad news about (Beaver) but perhaps the Farage effect is still playing out there?
Re the Channel Islands and IoM wanting a say on the EU position - they are not in the EU, so why should they need a say?
But Brexit means Brexit, and we are going to make a success of it.
Thanks for the excellent summary, Red.
for the Italian "Five Star" party. Australia has an "Australian Sex Party" by the way. Yay for fun names. Shame the UK political situation seems to get more dire by the day.
Would the Channel islands and IoM reaction relate partly to their huge (relatively) financial services industry, perhaps? One of the biggest offshore banks in Isle of Man announced earlier this week that it's closing!
They have a special trade agreement with EU (protocol 3?) which I think it intertwined with the UK's EU status even though they're not directly EU members...so that's all up for grabs now.
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