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Implications of not invoking Article 50

(205 Posts)
CuppaTeaAndAJammieDodger Tue 05-Jul-16 12:38:56

So there is plenty of talk about whether or not Article 50 will actually be triggered.

Let's say that it's not, what do you think the implications will be? Will the whole sorry mess just get swept under the carpet? Will we be forevermore looked upon as the laughing stock of the EU? Will it's initiate a conversation and possibly action to shake up British politics for the better or worse?

Would like to hear anyone's thoughts.

AgentProvocateur Tue 05-Jul-16 12:40:17

I think there would be civil unrest in the leave-voting areas.

CuppaTeaAndAJammieDodger Tue 05-Jul-16 12:42:21

Yes quite possibly AgentProvocateur - do you think this would escalate to violence/rioting?

ofshoes Tue 05-Jul-16 12:44:44

I think there would be civil unrest in the leave-voting areas

Without a doubt, I also think that the elite of the country would think it was a small price to pay, after all sending out the riot police to break some heads doesn't really do them any harm does it? They blatantly do not want this to go ahead.

AgentProvocateur Tue 05-Jul-16 12:51:42

Yes, I do. I don't know if you're as old as me wink but I remember watching the Toxteth riots and the Brixton riots on TV as a teen. I think they were caused by disaffected black youths who felt their voice wasn't being heard. Now, imagine that on a greater scale when, in some places, over 60% of residents felt that they weren't being listened to v

scousesal Tue 05-Jul-16 12:59:31

I think there will civil unrest of we do invoke it .They have torn us in two either side is going be angry .

3amEternal Tue 05-Jul-16 13:00:49

Lolz at baby boomer civil unrest. When would they find the time to riot between cruising?

CuppaTeaAndAJammieDodger Tue 05-Jul-16 13:04:37

I was alive agent but is not old enough to remember smile I was in the middle of the 2011 riots though. It's a terrifying thought - the potential size of the unrest.

ofshoes Tue 05-Jul-16 15:20:27

Lolz at baby boomer civil unrest

I have to admit I was delighted with myself when I made a "last charge of the mobility scooters" joke on another thread! So much so that I've just re used it

tiggytape Tue 05-Jul-16 15:37:29

It would basically cause economic and political limbo - a situation where no money is invested by businesses, expansions are put on hold, houses are not built, jobs are not created or filled and where, in households people put off spending money, booking holidays, moving house until they know for sure what will happen.

Politics would similarly be dominated by the stalemate because the enormity of the leave vote will remain and the pressure to invoke it won't go away. You cannot put that particular genii back in the bottle.

The EU will be furious because the uncertainty we create will also stuff up their markets and their economies.

The Bank of England would not be able to halt the spiral of uncertainty forever. At the moment we are in an "unfortunate but acceptable" limbo. It is still all new and we have no leader as such so the rest of the world will grant us a breather. But if this went on for month after month after month, the faith of the rest of the world in our economy and our currency would crash.

There will be political if not civil disquiet and a likely rise in support for far right parties who promise to 'do the democratic thing.' That stance could lead to a new acceptability for supporting those as the 'only parties who listen and who didn't sell out to the elites.' (not my view but their spin on it would almost certainly be along those lines).

sunnydayinmay Tue 05-Jul-16 15:46:29

I would agine I will depend on whether we dither, or make a clear statement that we are not leaving.

If we dither, then I guess it will be a disaster economically, as no one can make any plan.

If we stated that we aren't leaving after all (maybe after a General Election), then civil unrest, which will be ignored/quashed, and a much much lower turnout in any future election. I can't imagine we'd set fire to Parliament.

StrictlyMumDancing Tue 05-Jul-16 15:48:38

I think it's too simplistic a question, like the entire referendum.

The outcome depends on how or why it's not done.

If it were just not done then I'd imagine there would be some public upswell. Potential rioting maybe civil war. Definite even more swing of the populace to the very right wing.

If for example the EU offered a deal that allowed us to have some element of sovereignty and allowed some restrictions on migration or addressed other concerns then I'd doubt there would be much of a fuss made over all.

And anything between those two extremes could cause anything between full on civil war and nothingness.

The sad reality is that however we exit or don't exit the Eu is going to upset the vast majority of people. So anything from full on civil war to nothingness is on the table anyway.

tiggytape Tue 05-Jul-16 16:28:00

Agree strictly. If the reason it wasn't invoked was something that turned everything on it's head like a huge national emergency or the EU suddenly agreeing to something really radical to keep us (immigration quotas for example with an increased rebate, retention of our veto and an enthusiastic period of winning GB back and letting us have our own way on loads of things) then there might be a democratically acceptable way to say that everyone has got what they wanted (even though that would not be true at all) so Article 50 isn't required.

But if they just kick Article 50 in to the long grass or if they say they won't or can't do it, nothing could really go back to how it was because we will still be the country that wants to leave the EU.

We will always be sen as on the verge of leaving and treated as such - a bit like a spouse getting as far as decree the nisi then getting spooked by having to sell the house so deciding to stay after all and then wondering why their partner is less than keen to carry on as if nothing ever happened.

JinRamen Tue 05-Jul-16 21:15:26

Marking place to read later.

twofingerstoGideon Tue 05-Jul-16 21:36:45

There would probably be some civil unrest, particularly amongst far right racist groups like EDL, Britain First, British National Party etc.

I believe the government has painted itself into a corner (thanks, Cameron). They decided to ignore economic experts and plough ahead with a referendum despite having no plan. They are the subject of much piss-taking in the international media, but are prepared to plough right ahead with something that most experts* agree will be disastrous, at least in the short to medium term. Who cares if the country eats itself because... 'democracy'. Good for the UK, taking the most important decision in decades by putting it to a public vote following a campaign of lies and calling it democracy. Go Britain!

*I mean, what do they know...?

BMW6 Tue 05-Jul-16 21:45:25

I am absolutely sure that there would be massive civil unrest - I hesitate to say Civil War but frankly I think there is a very good chance of it.

twofingerstoGideon Tue 05-Jul-16 22:02:13

Civil war? So the remainers (48%) are expected to suck it up, move on, not march etc., because 'it's done now'. But there will be civil war if the other side (52%) doesn't get a satisfactory outcome?

Surferjet Tue 05-Jul-16 22:05:56

Civil war? So the remainers (48%) are expected to suck it up, move on

Yes. Because you lost.

sunnydayinmay Tue 05-Jul-16 22:05:57

I don't think there would be civil war. I actually think most people would actually have voted "Neither of the Above because I didn't want this Bloody Referendum in the First Place". That's the main thing I am hearing from my friends and acquaintances. They just want to get on with their lives without the uncertainty.

GhostofFrankGrimes Tue 05-Jul-16 22:08:10

Yes. Because you lost.

it's not a football match. Peoples lives are being turned upside down.

CuppaTeaAndAJammieDodger Tue 05-Jul-16 22:09:24

Sorry Stictly, should have made myself clearer - I mean rather than leave us in limbo there is a resolute decision not to leave the EU.

Tiggytape - love the spouse leave analogy, I agree that we would always be viewed as being half heartedly in the "relationship". I doubt that compromises will be offered by the EU, think it is an all or nothing situation. I am basing my question on if it was decided by the gvt to stay within the EU on an "all" basis (i.e. freedom of moment etc.)

twofingers I wholeheartedly agree with you.

Margrethe Tue 05-Jul-16 22:09:45

I think you are spot on tiggytape.

twofingerstoGideon Tue 05-Jul-16 22:10:38

Yes. Because you lost.
Haven't we moved on from facile comments like this?

megletthesecond Tue 05-Jul-16 22:11:30

Riots probably. Heaven help us if we have a heatwave next summer and if article 50 is delayed or stopped (whatever the official term is).

CuppaTeaAndAJammieDodger Tue 05-Jul-16 22:13:27

This clearly isn't a win/lose situation - I fail to see how anyone in this country will win whether we stay or go to be honest - damned if we do/damned if we don't - God, what an utter fuck up.

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