Hypothetical EU 'exit' scenario

[Thefuturecouldbebright]

Ok, this is merely hypothetical of course, as we were the first to leave, but what if we had not had a referendum, and say... France and Germany (for example) had a yes/no referendum and both decided to leave. We were then 'hypothetically' offered a yes/no referendum ourselves, would this have swayed you to vote differently?

Although it is a hypothetical question, I do believe it has relevance as there is a growing push for these (among other countries) to have a referendum, they may well vote out, and that would of course change the whole structure of the EU hugely. Would it look so attractive to be in without these big players?

Additionally, returning to the real post 'Brexit' situation, do you think these countries will now vote to leave? Do you think Brexit will have swayed the vote for them should one be offered?

[OurBlanche]

There does seem to be a lot of muttering about other Exits.

I suspect that those countries fear that their political parties are as stagnated and lacking real solidity as ours are/were - the complete implosion of the 2 main parties shows that, quite clearly. I think (have thought for a number of years) that UK politics has lacked real heart, too many career politicians, marketing/PR campaigns and not enough from the heart politicking.

Labour have no real agenda or internal accord, it would seem, and the Tories have chosen individual advancement over the party, long term friendships and, imo, common sense!

It isn't just the UK that has seen the rise of the right, UKIP is mirrored in many other countries. France's politico's may be posturing with their hard line against the UK stance, but I doubt that will distract from its own internal, growing, right wing unhappiness.

Maybe the EU was too much of a straight jacket, maybe it will just become the focus of entirely unrelated anger.

But we do, again, live in uncertain times and we may see a lot more upheaval in the near future.

[lljkk]

I reckon chances of other countries exiting EU are about as real as the Leave camp's plans for post-Brexit.

[Joysmum]

I think many voted Remain for fear of change. I therefore think many would be less scared to have voted leave if we weren't the first to do so.

Let's face it, how many who voted Remain did so as they are happy with the EU and thinks there's no major issues with it?

[PinkyPlumet]

Joysmum I completely agree. However I'm sure many posters will soon disagree and tell you how wrong you are

[SnowBells]

Thefuturecouldbebright

there is a growing push for these (among other countries) to have a referendum

I have family in Germany and colleagues from France. It is the FAR RIGHT that are pressing for a referendum. Not the general population.

You need to filter out the garbage Rupert Murdoch feeds you.

[SnowBells]

P.S.: For the countries you mentioned, the 'European story' is much more embedded in their identities than the UK.

Very, very different from the UK, where people don't seem to give a shit about what's happening across the Channel.

[Joysmum]

I have family in Germany and colleagues from France. It is the FAR RIGHT that are pressing for a referendum. Not the general population

Oh I agree, my links in Germany are reporting the same...as are those in France and Italy.

However, like in the UK, many of the general population are hoping for a referendum but keeping quiet for fear of being deemed far right for wanting out.

They've seen how a referendum here has seen wanting out become mainstream and not the preserve of the far right and they desperately want the same.

[Thefuturecouldbebright]

Hmmm... Some interesting insights here, I merely used France and Germany as an example, however I suppose the same is true throughout the EU, as to the european story.

I have a theory that the only flag that the far right have to wave to ordinary people is EU exit. Is it possible that once that option is removed (ie people voting leave) that any common ground the far right share with ordinary people is now largely lost and as a result they LOSE their voice?

Again, just a theory of course... Im sure not everyone will agree 😉

[MangoMoon]

I also have that theory about the far right getting a lot of oxygen from the 'Leave the EU' message, with otherwise reasonable people agreeing on that particular message.

I do think too that a lot of people voted to remain through preferring to 'stick with what you know', rather than really believing in the EU.
Had other countries (or even just one major one) already have voted out, then I do think the UK vote would have been more decisive for Leave.

[Twasthecatthatdidit]

Surely it would depend on what happens next? From the outside, the U.K. currently looks like a mess - no-one in charge, politicians looking ridiculous, currency tanking, increase in racist attacks - so it's looking more like a cautionary tale than an example to follow. I think the most eu critical party, podemos, did worse than expected in the recent Spanish elections, possibly because of brexit. However, you're only a week in of course, and things may look different in a year or two.