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Will Brexit actually happen?

(27 Posts)
SemiNormal Sun 26-Jun-16 12:07:20

Am I the only person who thinks it won't happen? I don't think any PM wants to sort everything out, Sturgeon is going to try and block it ( www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36633244 ), I was always of the opinion that the referendum wasn't legally binding either?

How will Leave voters feel if it doesn't go ahead?

I voted Leave and am happy with the result, but, I think I would be 'okay' with remaining IF lessons were learnt from the way people have voted, that the EU realised that they need to loosen control and allow us to have more say in what goes on in this country. I'd also like to see proportional representation in General Elections as I do think that the last General Elections left a lot of people with a bad taste in their mouths.

MrsCookieMonster78 Sun 26-Jun-16 12:09:38

Yes it will happen (in my opinion), no political party will fight an election on the basis of ignoring the result. However, there may be a push to stay in the single market with watered down movement of people/labour.

RiceCrispieTreats Sun 26-Jun-16 12:14:24

Yes it will happen.

Because there is a sentient world outside the UK, which notably includes 27 other countries who are tired of the UK's tantrumming and want it out, now. And they don't give a fuck what the UK's demands are, because they (astonishingly!) have their own interests to pursue.

noblegiraffe Sun 26-Jun-16 12:21:12

I don't think it will happen. Europe can say what they like but they can't actually force us to invoke Article 50 and until that happens, we're in.

I can't see any leader actually willing to press the button that will potentially break up the UK and ruin the economy. Who wants their name in the history books next to that?

And I think many in the leave camp will be pissed off when in turns out that leaving doesn't actually change anything about immigration, the Welsh and the Cornish will realise that the money that won't be going to the NHS won't be going to them either and public opinion will shift towards staying.

Peppatina Sun 26-Jun-16 12:23:15

It has to happen now.

What will a vote be worth if they don't go wil the will of the majority of people that actually could be asked to vote?

It would be complete fucking chaos.

dragonstail Sun 26-Jun-16 12:24:12

There may be some legal hoops to sort out before article 50 could be started. I think there was exploration before the vote that, legally, the whole of parliament would have to agree and as Scotland hasn't, it has to be debated.

SemiNormal Sun 26-Jun-16 12:25:58

Europe can say what they like but they can't actually force us to invoke Article 50 and until that happens, we're in. - Yes exactly, but they are pissed off with us and I do wonder if we stay in if they will 'punish' us, that said I think if we leave they will attempt to 'punish' us too. They stated before the referendum that they would not negotiate, now they are admitting that things need changing - I do feel sad they wouldn't change before it come to this.

RiceCrispieTreats Sun 26-Jun-16 12:26:59

Europe can say what they like but they can't actually force us to invoke Article 50 and until that happens, we're in.

No, but they can make life very difficult.

Already Council meetings are being scheduled to which Cameron is not invited.
The British Commissioner has resigned before he was pushed.
The European Parliament is holding an extraordinary session tomorrow in which they may vote to suspend UK MEPs, or invoke Article 48, or all manner of actions that sideline the UK.

noblegiraffe Sun 26-Jun-16 12:32:44

The EU needs to think very carefully before it starts acting like a massive bully punishing dissenting opinions. There are a lot of countries now looking closely at what happens, and the EU appearing to be in favour of corporal punishment will only seal their reputation as something that those countries don't want to be part of.

Juncker's a tosser who would do it in a flash, but I think Merkel is smarter than that.

PreAdvent13610 Sun 26-Jun-16 12:34:27

The Democratic People's Republic of the Ununited Kingdom is not very popular on the world stage right now. We have already cost them $2 trillion in one day. You can now have a say in what goes on in your country but not their world.

Hamishandthefoxes Sun 26-Jun-16 12:37:16

I think there will be a general election next year where the electorate will be offered a choice

A) full Brexit forever and never talking to anyone ever again (UKIP)

B) Norway Style EEA membership costing s bit more than we have at the moment of a choice to stay as we are but losing veto and signing up to euro (everyone else).

I would hope that option b is taken although UKIP will probably have several MPs. Probable minority government for a while.

I think option a which is what the hardcore leavers are hoping for is very very unlikely.

Hamishandthefoxes Sun 26-Jun-16 12:38:08

Sorry the of should be an or. I think either we'll be sort of Norway or full euro membership.

chantico Sun 26-Jun-16 12:39:19

"the EU realised that they need to loosen control and allow us to have more say in what goes on in this country"

Juncker has already said the 'Cameron deal' is no longer an option. And that there are to be no more negotiations.

So no, I don't think the prospect of EU loosening control is remotely likely. I do however think Merkel will put her efforts into ensuring that negotiations over exit and future arrangements are done pragmatically, getting the best deal all round.

noblegiraffe Sun 26-Jun-16 12:40:36

You forgot C) Hamish which is staying in the EU and ignoring the referendum - Lib Dems are offering that.

RiceCrispieTreats Sun 26-Jun-16 12:42:13

"the EU realised that they need to loosen control and allow us to have more say in what goes on in this country"

Since this Friday, the EU is perfectly willing to let the UK have 100% say in what goes on in this country.

And yet, no-one on the UK side is invoking Article 50. Funny, that... It's almost like this was all a failed bluff and the UK actually wants to stay.

CarlGrimesMissingEye Sun 26-Jun-16 12:45:04

And who in their right mind would elect a party that wilfully ignores the result of a referendum. That's not democracy, it's not listening to the people. I'd run a mile from a party like that, what else are they going to ignore the people's will about?

Slingcrump Sun 26-Jun-16 12:46:58

The big sticking point is whether we wish to remain in the single market (and if we do, whether they will still have us). If we leave the single market it will have profoundly negative economic consequences for the UK (as has been indicated by HSBC saying they will move 1,000 staff from London to Paris if we quit). But along with the single market, comes the free movement of people, and if the leavers are in charge of negotiations, how are they going to handle that?

gunting Sun 26-Jun-16 12:48:31

If we don't stay in the single market we are ruined. It makes up 13% of our GDP and only 3% of theirs.

Plus I work in the service sector (as most of companies who trade with the EU do) and in my industry the US are light years ahead of us.

Hamishandthefoxes Sun 26-Jun-16 12:52:27

True noble.

I think in the incredibly unlikely event that the lib dems won an outright victory on a first past the post system, they'd probably consider with some justification that they have a sufficient mandate to ignore the referendum result, as it is not mandatory.

noblegiraffe Sun 26-Jun-16 12:53:05

wilfully ignores the result of a referendum

Scotland may get a re-run. Ireland had another referendum on the Lisbon Treaty when the first one was a no. It's not unprecedented for a referendum to not be the final word on the matter. This referendum was not legally binding - the alternative vote one was. There was a decision somewhere along the line to make that the case.

GraceGrape Sun 26-Jun-16 13:02:10

And who in their right mind would elect a party that wilfully ignores the result of a referendum.

A referendum is not an election. No politician in their right mind would wilfully ignore a referendum with a significant majority. However, a referendum with a tiny majority is much more difficult for them to act upon. It is not exactly a mandate. Let's not forget that 48% of those who voted might well vote for a party that would ignore the referendum result!

In my view, they're going to have to come up with some sort of agreement that makes the Leave voters feel that they have been listened to but which doesn't completely fuck the economy. Realistically, the only option is some sort of EEA agreement. In the long-term, this will leave us worse off than we currently are because we wouldn't have a voice in the EU, but would still have to comply with a lot of their regulations, but the negotiators would be hoping most leave voters might not actually realise this for a while.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine Sun 26-Jun-16 13:08:01

Either way is completely chaos, and while the supposed leaders of the country are in hiding doing nothing the leaders of the eU get more and more pissed off.

The EU has said they will not negotiate until article 50 is invoked,and as a PP said the deal DC had negotiated is back off the table.

The Scottish parliament could veto the Brexit but that would not go down well. The WM parliament could override Scotland but that would not go down well either.

The Tories and there little power games have seriously fucked over the country, and now they are in hiding instead if leaving. And of course labour is not stepping up, they have decided this is an ideal time to throw their party into chaos too

Glitteryfrog Sun 26-Jun-16 13:08:23

I'm remain - but I've reached 'we've voted out, no let's deal with it

Some of it will depend if other countries also have referendums and vote out.(or are very close to results.)
If the Dutch, French and Italians call for out then it might lead to a restructuring of the EU.

I assumed that Cameron would say 'I'm out of here... by the way I'm dropping off article 50 on the way past Brussels. You lot deal with it'

hubris Sun 26-Jun-16 13:10:47

If this vote is ignored, it would be a highly anti-democratic act.

If Article 50 isn't invoked, I would predict a hugely increased vote for UKIP at the next general election. That would give Tim Farron's vote-gathering a run for its money.

Hamishandthefoxes Sun 26-Jun-16 13:28:54

There are already people voting for Brexit who are worrying about the outcome and changing there minds. If there is a general election against a backdrop of a major recession and when people are finding that they really do have more to lose, that nice Mr Johnson offering 'something in the middle just like we wanted in 1973' may well do very well.

UKIP will do better in the next GE than it has historically, but if that helps people feel enfranchised, it might not be an entirely bad thing.

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