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Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

(978 Posts)
CommanderShepard Sat 25-Jun-16 19:10:54

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.


Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

ladyjadey Mon 27-Jun-16 21:06:28

I'm finding all of this very interesting indeed, and some of the comments are thought provoking and insightful. I'm only on page 4 of this thread so far but would like to add my thoughts.

Initially as someone who voted remain and never thought for a minute that brexit would win, I was first gobsmacked, then depressed, then angry.

Since then I have thought about the situation since DC resigned and left a radioactive package for someone else to unwrap. It's a real catch 22 as I see it. The EU are refusing to negotiate unless we invoke article 50, there is currently no one who will do so. If anyone accepts this parcel they are undoubtedly committing political suicide.

Seeing as how there's no one rushing in....... We, the public, get to watch and wait. As we do, we see the negative side of the deal. We see the pound plummet, everything cost more and begin to unpick the lies we were fed.

So what happens then? A second referendum without the protest votes? A general election with new leaders to the big two? I personally like JC but can't see him winning over the people because he's just too left for the majority. If BJ wins leadership he will fall on his face. I'm not sure how TM would do if she won but I don't see her having a huge fan club.

I think that we will end up staying in the EU regardless. Unless they physically boot us out which would open a whole new can of worms.

GoudyStout Mon 27-Jun-16 21:06:36

One of the Guardian comments here states that Parliament has to repeal the 1972 European Communities Act, which took us into the EU in the first place, and MPs can refuse to do so if they believe that it is not in the national interest.

Professor Michael Dougan ...Where was this bloke in the run-up to the referendum?

Everywhere, but because he declared that he was for Remain at the outset, as well as holding a Jean Monnet chair, he was rubbished as being biased hmm.

JillyTheDependableBoot Mon 27-Jun-16 21:12:53

Oliver Letwin does have an irreproachable record of fucking things up to a momentous extent. I can't help wondering if this is another smart underhand move by Cameron. Literally everything the man does turns to shit.

InShockReally Mon 27-Jun-16 21:14:48

Quick request ... Before this one runs out, can someone make a new thread and post the link back here? Thank you, am genuinely reading with interest flowers

GoudyStout Mon 27-Jun-16 21:18:10

Letwin - oh good, another Old Etonian who wants to privatise the NHS, recommended dumping the poll tax on the Scots first "as a trial", and is generally a Prize Idiot.

DC really would be handing the shittiest stick ever to Johnson.

RedToothBrush Mon 27-Jun-16 21:18:13

New Thread

Showmethewaytogohome Mon 27-Jun-16 21:18:43

Obi Wow

'Bite me' Really? I think we can see why the tone of the debate was so disgusting - I would have liked to see them in court with NASA tho

BoulevardOfBrokenSleep Mon 27-Jun-16 21:29:00

Yy, GoudyStout DH apparently studied constitutional law at uni, and has been making similar noises about the European Communities Act.

nickyjoli Mon 27-Jun-16 21:30:57

Hear hear felascloke ! Bunch of twats putting their careers before the next generations future, jobs, the economy and latent/accepted racism. We are now left with a country that has done the most spectacular own goal in economic or political history. It is a shambles.

BoulevardOfBrokenSleep Mon 27-Jun-16 21:32:08

Obi - that must be a spoof, right?

nickyjoli Mon 27-Jun-16 21:34:39

I vote for David Miliband to come back and sort this mess out.

ObiWanCannelloni Mon 27-Jun-16 21:43:51

It's legit... He says on his Twitter acct ppl should have a sense of humour about it.....

MitzyLeFrouf Mon 27-Jun-16 21:45:31

The Leave Eu image that Obi printed is REAL.

That really is what we're dealing with!

MitzyLeFrouf Mon 27-Jun-16 21:46:55

Gary Lineker said he takes the 'luvvie' barb as a compliment for his wonderful acting in the Walker crisps ads grin

MitzyLeFrouf Mon 27-Jun-16 21:49:55

Actually I've always thought Lineker was a bit of a plonker but I've loved his Brexit tweeting.

ObiWanCannelloni Mon 27-Jun-16 22:03:35

metro for tomorrow...
"Cameron demob happy" & Focus on Corbyn crisis esp DCs joke about new Labour MP being in shadow cabinet...

No mention of BJ, MG in article.... Johnson really is getting an easy ride....

SybilEngineer Mon 27-Jun-16 22:22:08

Obi - come over to the new thread!

UnderTheGreenwoodTree Mon 27-Jun-16 22:27:43

I have laughed myself to crying over this oncoming storm. I just keep watching thread after thread on here to clutch some straw.
I have posted this before, I think the night of the referendum results. But do you remember the laughter of Tom Hanks in Money Pit? That's what I am laughing like.

Me too, Valentine, me too. It's sort of funny, but I'm worried about my own hysteria - I'm laughing uncontrollably at any funny tweet, Daily Mash Story. My dc are looking at me a bit confused

Scarily, I thought the Leave EU thing was satire - but apparently it's genuine confused Yup. They really are that bad.

Alisvolatpropiis Mon 27-Jun-16 22:34:24

I don't like her particularly but it is Theresa, not Teresa. If we're discussing her, we should get her name right, surely?

LurkingHusband Mon 27-Jun-16 22:45:24

I don't like her particularly but it is Theresa, not Teresa. If we're discussing her, we should get her name right, surely?

Any mis-spelling on my part was accidental, and not intended to offend. if I wanted to offend Theresa May, I'm sure it wouldn't be accidental.

Alisvolatpropiis Mon 27-Jun-16 23:20:19

😂 fair point

It wasn't aimed specifically at you, I've seen it a lot since she announced her decision to run.

Never thought I'd be keen on her being PM but she truly seems the best of a horrific bunch who I didn't vote for anyway.

doraexploradora Mon 27-Jun-16 23:22:59

boris still scrambling for any sort of plan?

UnderTheGreenwoodTree Mon 27-Jun-16 23:59:14

We're over here..... smile wine

VicsterB Tue 28-Jun-16 20:45:49

Love the abbv BoJo, thanks howtorebuild. BoJo is a tragedy of a man.

Wordsaremything Tue 28-Jun-16 21:33:58

This made me laugh out loud for first time in s long while:

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