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Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

(978 Posts)
CommanderShepard Sat 25-Jun-16 19:10:54

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

Badders123 Sat 25-Jun-16 21:05:09

....I wonder what David milliband is up to these days....😁

SpaceKablooie Sat 25-Jun-16 21:08:10

Badders, I was wondering that too...

ChameleonCircuit Sat 25-Jun-16 21:15:39

Didn't David Milliband take a job in New York after being shafted by Ed?

MuddhaOfSuburbia Sat 25-Jun-16 21:17:42

I'd bet my boots the Labour membership will never go for David M

who knows though

I love Corbyn but. let's face it, this is a pretty right wing country and it's never going to work out

Labour need a total FUCKER on the job

Badders123 Sat 25-Jun-16 21:19:17

Absolutely!
But what a sad indictment of our times that a decent, principled person is unelectable 😞

RedToothBrush Sat 25-Jun-16 21:20:00

Did someone say Fraud?

www.gov.uk/marketing-advertising-law/regulations-that-affect-advertising

www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/141788/Part-4-The-campaign-LGEW.pdf
Racial hatred
Under the Public Order Act 1986, it is an offence to 1.52 publish or distribute threatening, abusive or insulting material that is intended to stir up racial hatred or which is likely to stir up racial hatred.

Hmm.

PreAdvent13610 Sat 25-Jun-16 21:20:07

David Milliband is alive and well in NY

OfficiallyUnofficial Sat 25-Jun-16 21:20:41

Jesus if we end up with Jeremy Corbyn trying to lead us through this we are truly screwed.

I'm with PP, I think without us the EU ceases to function, there were only, what 3/4 net contributing countries with 20+ just taking moment out? Financially unviable in the long term, hence the leave vote winning.

So in the best outcome this is a reset button for the EU to re- negotiate properly and to halt the creep into some sort of beurocratic monstrosity of a super state.

OfficiallyUnofficial Sat 25-Jun-16 21:21:42

*money not moment

MuddhaOfSuburbia Sat 25-Jun-16 21:22:52

you know the BBC coverage on Thursday night

it had a banner v v early on, for ages, saying 80 odd Tory MPs had signed a letter saying whatever the decision the PM had everyone's confidence to see it through. Or similar

Gove and Johnson had signed it

at the time, I said to OH are they thinking he'll bail if it goes Leave

I may be being totally thick with this, and maybe it's standard? If not, did they have a fair clue that DC'd just give it fuckety bye and flounce?

Badders123 Sat 25-Jun-16 21:24:05

I must admit to thinking the same muddha!

Ginmakesitallok Sat 25-Jun-16 21:24:06

Surely the only way forward is a general election, where the parties clearly set out to the electorate how they are going to respond to the referendum. Then we vote for who we want to take us forward and they get on with it.

BeakyMinder Sat 25-Jun-16 21:24:06

Many in the political establishment are regretting the result, which they didn't expect. Sign the petition ...

Ginmakesitallok Sat 25-Jun-16 21:24:56

My post above is genius by the way, and if it happens you can say you saw it here first.

Badders123 Sat 25-Jun-16 21:26:43

Yes this will trigger a GE
Hence Labour's no confidence vote on Corbyn...they have the same issue as the tories though...who the hell wants to take on this poisoned chalice!?

RiceCrispieTreats Sat 25-Jun-16 21:28:40

Personally I think it may lead to a new round of negotiations for revised terms for staying in [we are a major contributor: can they really afford to lose us?]

I don't share your view.
The UK and EU have been "negotiating" for 43 fractious years already. There is no appetite in Brussels for giving London any further concessions.

And while the UK is indeed a net contributor, British governments and electorate have always under-estimated the fact that, for other countries, it's not about money, as it is here. They lived through WWII in a very different way than the UK did, and for the rest of the EU, the political project is what they see and are emotionally attached to. The UK just spat on that with this referendum, and it is taken as a very grave insult in a way that I think the British public really don't appreciate.

Muddlingalongalone Sat 25-Jun-16 21:29:06

Muddha my take on the letter at the time was that they were grovelling for their careers in a no hard feelings kinda way.
Your version makes more sense now!

Badders123 Sat 25-Jun-16 21:31:08

Rice crispy...spot on! And this is personal for juncker...DC tried to lock his appointment...he will make this very hard for the uk imo, despite merkels placatory remarks.

doceodocere Sat 25-Jun-16 21:32:36

.

MunchCrunch01 Sat 25-Jun-16 21:39:39

I really hope this leads to a general election and a clear mandate to remain, and also that labour boot Corbyn back to his veg patch where he belongs

MuddhaOfSuburbia Sat 25-Jun-16 21:42:45

lol veg patch

who could they have instead then?

they have the same issue as the tories though...who the hell wants to take on this poisoned chalice!?

this ^

WhatsGoingOnEh Sat 25-Jun-16 21:46:42

YES YES, to the EU seeing itself as a peaceful, political union. And YES YES to the UK having just completely insulted that.

Juncker really really looks and sounds like a man who can't wait for us to feck off.

Have a hideous feeling that the EU will be transformed after we go, due to rising dissatisfaction from other states, and become absolutely brilliant. And we'll be on the outside asking to come in, like we did the first time, and being refused, like we were the first and second time.

Sob.

MuddhaOfSuburbia Sat 25-Jun-16 21:47:15

re the OP

someone on twitter posted pic of Gove and Johnson at that press conference, looking all sheepish and scared

said it looked just like the bit in The Producers where they find out that Springtime for Hitler is a massive success grin

neolara Sat 25-Jun-16 21:50:54

So do what I've just done and join the Labour Party so you can vote to oust Corbyn. It's outrageous that he was not able to provide viable opposition to the conservatives who were tearing themselves apart. It just needs lots of Remainers to do the same. With a credible leader and pro Remain policies I reckon Labour could do very well in the next GE which I predict will be called in the autumn.

I also agree with the OP. No-one will want the job of implementing article 50. Am thinking of also joining the conservatives to vote for Boris to get the job.. Half the country would hate him for signing. Of the rest, half would hate him for not sending £350,000,000 per week to the NHS and stopping immigration and the other half would hate him for not getting on with things quickly enough. Would be sweet revenge.

Badders123 Sat 25-Jun-16 21:52:31

Yes I saw that grin
I feel utterly bewildered by the whole thing
Bottom line is;
This is a victory for Rupert Murdoch and the right wing press

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