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Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

(978 Posts)
CommanderShepard Sat 25-Jun-16 19:10:54

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

TheNorthRemembers Sat 25-Jun-16 22:37:10

It was because, similarly to Farage, he saw the hedge fund exit polls. At 500K a pop, they all predicted remain to win. Apparently. I have not seen them. I would not like to be a pollster now...

TheNorthRemembers Sat 25-Jun-16 22:37:53

I mean £500K a pop.

TooMuchMNTime Sat 25-Jun-16 22:37:58

TheNorth, did they? They might have shorted the pound and made money.

LordRothermereBlackshirtCunt Sat 25-Jun-16 22:39:11

I wonder whether he will actually sit out this leadership challenge, let someone else pick up the shitty stick and take the flak until kicked out, while he continues his media campaign on the side, ready to swoop in later when the jobs a bit easier....
I don't think that would work. People expect him to clean up his shit now. Walking away is one thing. Walking away and expecting to come back at the time of his choosing will never wash. It's now or never.

LordRothermereBlackshirtCunt Sat 25-Jun-16 22:42:53

I'm curious to know what is going on with Theresa May. I'm wondering if she's being held back as a relatively neutral, untainted potential leader for when the Tories need to renew themselves for a general election (perhaps sooner rather than later)

MitzyLeFrouf Sat 25-Jun-16 22:46:56

Oooohh fascinating thread. Something is clearly afoot at Tory Towers. Have they all descended to their Anderson shelter to weep and discuss where it all went so wrong? Would loved to have been a flt on the wall when Gove and Johnson realised they'd 'won' and that Cameron was going to send them up the swannee and leave them holding the grenade.

LineyReborn Sat 25-Jun-16 22:47:25

Why would she pick up Johnson's shitty stick, though?

PrincessIrene Sat 25-Jun-16 22:48:17

IDS and Salmond were both on Nick Robinson's BBC special talking about it last night. Definitely not 'hiding away.'

TheNorthRemembers Sat 25-Jun-16 22:48:46

"A bitter Mr Farage said he thought the UK had voted to stay in the European Union based on “what I know from some of my friends in the financial markets who have done some big polling”. From the Mirror

Mistigri Sat 25-Jun-16 22:49:37

May campaigned for remain, but she didn't get a lot of headlines. Will she want the leadership now?

stealtheatingtunnocks Sat 25-Jun-16 22:49:41

I'm mulling over the poison chalice thing.

We basically need a rebound guy. The daft fling that you need to massage your ego and regain some confidence after a big breakup.

We need a rebound leader of the Tories and I suspect that Labour are ready to move on from their Rebound Guy. Fallon can stay, he's alright.

LineyReborn Sat 25-Jun-16 22:50:58

Tomorrow's Andrew Marr show and the Sunday Politics will be interesting if they don't have these members of government on saying what is actually happening.

RepentAtLeisure Sat 25-Jun-16 22:52:33

Yes, I remember someone posting a photo on twitter of Boris pretty much saying they'd lost. He looked happier in that photo than he did after they won.

So essentially, what we're thinking is that Cameron is going to divert everyone's attention to his resignation and a leadership battle for four months, then dump a big pile of referendum shit on Boris's chair when he leaves Number 10?

mumsnit Sat 25-Jun-16 22:53:35

Ive just read the article op posted and immediately wondered who'll be playing DC et al in the forthcoming film grin

I do feel a bit better though knowing that its all kicking off for Boris and Gove now and that DC did have a Plan B after all.

LordRothermereBlackshirtCunt Sat 25-Jun-16 22:56:15

Liney, I'm assuming she'd run in a general election on a remain ticket and so Article 50 would never be invoked if she won. There would still be a fine mess to clear up, though, I agree. Maybe no one will want to lead the Tories now! It's not exactly the job that political dreams are made of.

RedToothBrush Sat 25-Jun-16 23:01:37

Someone bet £130,000 on leave at around lunchtime on Thursday. It was reported in the press (though I forget who reported it).

Up to this point the betting odds on Remain had narrowed since the You Gov poll was released at 10.30am. It reached a peak at about 12pm.

This was the point at which the 'exit polls' should have been hitting. Suddenly when this bet when on the odds on Remain lengthened.

The pattern on betting was that Remain was attracting larger bets (for little returns) versus very small bets on Leave (for large returns). Betfair said around 11.30am that the largest bet they had was £28,000 on remain.

This bet for £130,000 is odd in that it was definitely out of the pattern of betting.

Aaron Banks of Leave.eu said during the night on Thursday, they had been doing their own exit polling and the results were in line with that.

I'd love to know who placed that bet.... and whether they knew something.

littlequestion Sat 25-Jun-16 23:02:45

I like the suggestion unthread of a gen election with parties declaring if they would actually go through with leaving if elected ...but only UKIP would campaign to leave, surely...and would potentially get millions of votes

RedToothBrush Sat 25-Jun-16 23:07:29

My point being that, I find it surprising that Farage, Johnston, Gove etc were not made aware of this poll that Aaron Bank knew about...

...even if they were not part of the unofficial leave.eu campaign.

LaurieFairyCake Sat 25-Jun-16 23:08:07

Article 50 is NOT going to be invoked by anyone

A weak negotiation is going to happen

TheNorthRemembers Sat 25-Jun-16 23:08:57

The effects of Brexit will definitely start to bite by Autumn, and we cannot have a GE before that, so the vote may be different.

I know where Osborne is. I have just realised he must be drawing up his emergency / punishment budget in a locked room. He must be on his way out, but let us face it who wants to be Chancellor now when there is even less money?!

Felascloak Sat 25-Jun-16 23:10:40

GE would be another gamble but ukip would need a huge swing to trouble the govt and it might be a price worth paying to avoid the reality of a brexit shitstorm

RedToothBrush Sat 25-Jun-16 23:10:47

Irony: We need Gideon.

Fuckers.

TheNorthRemembers Sat 25-Jun-16 23:12:06

No more gambles, please [starts crying again]

puglife15 Sat 25-Jun-16 23:15:20

I wonder whether he will actually sit out this leadership challenge, let someone else pick up the shitty stick and take the flak until kicked out, while he continues his media campaign on the side, ready to swoop in later when the jobs a bit easier....

I thought exactly the same. Scapegoat Gove or put unremarkable May in for a year or three. Just in time for 2020, if he can't get Gove out through a vote of no confidence after he's been heading up the Brexit shitstorm.

Or, he's waiting for the cabinet to agree NOT to invoke article 50.

Mistigri Sat 25-Jun-16 23:15:39

Article 50 is NOT going to be invoked by anyone

A weak negotiation is going to happen

This.

For the UK to be in a strong position it absolutely had to invoke article 50 before the EU got a chance to say "well, what are you waiting for? Here's the door".

RedToothBrush Sat 25-Jun-16 23:16:04

We would need a credible alternative to UKIP - possibly with Lab / Libs working together and not standing candidates against each other in certain seats to split the vote.

TheNorthRemembers Sat 25-Jun-16 23:22:31

Credible? Not Corbyn then. Have you seen him today? "I can't see how it is my fault, I said everything I had to." All true, but it is not your homework, you [I am too angry to find the right word]! It is our lives! You should have worked your socks off instead of mumbling away occasionally.

Bumblebzz Sat 25-Jun-16 23:23:20

This sums it up for me

littlequestion Sat 25-Jun-16 23:27:50

The thing is, just about every MP knows that pulling us out of Europe is suicidal for the country. Don't they have some legal duty not to behave in a reckless way/ one that could damage the people they serve?

TheNorthRemembers Sat 25-Jun-16 23:28:52

Bumblebzz That is hilarious. Also very sad.

GhostofFrankGrimes Sat 25-Jun-16 23:30:17

Credible? Not Corbyn then. Have you seen him today? "I can't see how it is my fault, I said everything I had to." All true, but it is not your homework, you [I am too angry to find the right word]! It is our lives! You should have worked your socks off instead of mumbling away occasionally.

Some people cannot be reasoned with as interviews with Brexiters on TV today show. This is not Corbyns fault. Some people do not want a 20 minute sermon on why neo liberalism is bad for ordinary folks because "immigrants stole my job" is some much easier.

QueenLaBeefah Sat 25-Jun-16 23:32:10

What a fucking mess.

TooMuchMNTime Sat 25-Jun-16 23:32:43

I heard Corbyn did a lot of enthusiastic campaigning that no one reported.

TheDuchessOfKidderminster Sat 25-Jun-16 23:36:16

Ok here are my predictions:

Theresa May will be elected as new Tory party leader. I'm not convinced BoJo will even bother to stand, I wouldn't if I was him.

Labour will succeed in booting out JC (genuinely no idea who will take over - drawn a complete blank on that one).

There will be a general election within 6-12months.

We will join the EEA with freedom of movement as part of the deal. They could just sit on this result & not invoke Article 50 but I don't think the other EU nations will stand for that as they are mightily pissed off both with this result & the way we've behaved prior to the referendum.

No idea what Gideon will do - his political career is totally fucked though.

I don't think that DC's resignation was done to fuck over the other side - I don't think he saw this result coming at all & genuinely does not know what to do.

ObiWanCannelloni Sat 25-Jun-16 23:36:35

littlequestion I'm Remain, Remain, Remain but can't see anyway parliament can not follow the wishes of the referendum without backlash.
Trust in politicians already very low, now they're going to tell voters they're wrong?
3 million (shonky) signatures on an online petition plus D Lammy urging MPs to veto will lead to debate but how can they say they're not going with a democratic obtained result?
In same way, I don't see how they cannot invoke Article 50 by end of year... I don't see how the public and Murdoch would let them walk that backwards....
(I know they can theoretically do these things, I mean how it would play in reality)

TheNorthRemembers Sat 25-Jun-16 23:37:37

DH thinks that Corbyn could have said anything and the media would not have reported it, so you are probably both right Ghost and TooMuch, but it still does not make him the right person to lead the Labour party...

TooMuchMNTime Sat 25-Jun-16 23:40:32

I do have major respect for Corbyn so I'd be sorry if he had to go.
Agree with Duchess that May will be the next Tory leader.

RepentAtLeisure Sat 25-Jun-16 23:40:57

Credible? Not Corbyn then. Have you seen him today? "I can't see how it is my fault, I said everything I had to." All true, but it is not your homework, you [I am too angry to find the right word]! It is our lives! You should have worked your socks off instead of mumbling away occasionally.

Corbyn didn't promise a referendum, and he didn't call one. He wasn't on the Leave or Remain team, but even though he is privately a Eurosceptic, going by his history, he did advise people to vote Remain which was the responsible position to take. What more could he do really?

TheNorthRemembers Sat 25-Jun-16 23:40:58

ObiWan Only a new Parliament would have mandate to do anything other than invoke article 50 really, no? None of the changes flowing from this result were in the manifestos though, so the present MPs and the governments have lost their mandate.

GhostofFrankGrimes Sat 25-Jun-16 23:41:29

*DH thinks that Corbyn could have said anything and the media would not have reported it, so you are probably both right Ghost and TooMuch, but it still does not make him the right person to lead the Labour party..."

if Corbyn had campaigned to leave Labour heartland such as Liverpool and Manchester would still have voted to remain. Corbyn would have been blamed. The alternative to Corbyn is a Blairite and thankfully that ship has sailed.

JeanGenie23 Sat 25-Jun-16 23:42:59

I think, and I am not a politician so it doesn't really matter what I think but, DC fought for what he truly believed was right and on Friday morning it was very clear that he cannot run a country whereby the majority of people disagree entirely with him. Sadly he had no choice but to go. However by resigning it gave him the chance to screw over BJ at the same time, who has made it very clear wants to be PM. DC said come on then BJ have a go if you think you are hard enough grin

Thegirlinthefireplace Sat 25-Jun-16 23:43:53

I'm biased because I like Corbyn but blaming him really is misplaced anger. There are plenty above him on the blame list. He was late to the party and his natural style is not charismatic but the problem with labour voters turning to UKIP is not aBout Corbyn or of his making.

ObiWanCannelloni Sat 25-Jun-16 23:44:29

Gawd... BBC saying Hunt keen to have a crack at running hmm

RiceCrispieTreats Sat 25-Jun-16 23:44:52

A weak negotiation is going to happen

I don't think so. Nobody wants to negotiate with the UK anymore. Or certainly not with anyone who had any part in the Leave campaign.

Even if the leadership election manages to find a sacrificial Remainer to ask the European Council for another round of face-saving negotiations, it'll go something like this:

New PM: "We want to discuss new terms for staying in."
European Council: "So you're staying after all? Brilliant. The new terms are that you lose any concessions you've obtained in the past 43 years and now have to follow the same rules as the other 27 countries around this table."

MitzyLeFrouf Sat 25-Jun-16 23:45:00

HUNT?

FUCK THAT SHIT.

PrimalLass Sat 25-Jun-16 23:45:16

* If not, did they have a fair clue that DC'd just give it fuckety bye and flounce?*

This made me laugh more than anything else has in the last 2 days. We need Malcolm.

JeanGenie23 Sat 25-Jun-16 23:45:26

I saw sadly and I don't even like the creep (DC) I've never voted for him, but he is becoming less and less slimy to be in comparison to Gove (nobhead) and BJ (tit)

Thegirlinthefireplace Sat 25-Jun-16 23:48:47

I disagree rice. We haven't left, we don't need to negotiate to stay, we can just stay (as it stand unless they find away to kick us out). Obviously we wouldn't get anything new and would look like utter fools but not sure on what basis they could remove existing membership rights when we haven't quit membership. Interested to be corrected if you have other facts.

TheDuchessOfKidderminster Sat 25-Jun-16 23:49:02

I like JC but I think the party made a mistake voting for him as leader because he doesn't have broad enough appeal. The Labour Party really could do with kicking out all the Blairites, I would enjoy that 😊

PrimalLass Sat 25-Jun-16 23:49:12

That is why I want to make clear that the Liberal Democrats will fight the next election on a clear and unequivocal promise to restore Britain’s prosperity and role in the world, with the United Kingdom in the European Union, not outside it.

I miss Nick. Can we rewind and have Hume back!

FirstShinyRobe Sat 25-Jun-16 23:50:41

All of you that are unhappy, Get in touch with your MPs. Let them know what you think, especially about the Leave campaign lies. This isn't over until article 50 is implemented.

The referendum is in no way a mandate, given the outrageous spin. Make your MP aware that it is clear that the result was a protest vote against the political class of which they are a part and that you expect them to partake in fixing that problem. And I mean the problem that is even bigger than the referendum result.

TheDuchessOfKidderminster Sat 25-Jun-16 23:51:14

Hunt - no fucking chance!! Thank fuck 😀

QueenLaBeefah Sat 25-Jun-16 23:54:33

Out of the lot of them i could just about tolerate Therasa May.

RiceCrispieTreats Sat 25-Jun-16 23:54:57

Oh I agree fireplace.
I'm just highlighting that the UK is not in any position to ask for any new terms, as a PP suggested. Quite the opposite. It's not a "weak" negotiating position, it's a non-existant one.

Thegirlinthefireplace Sat 25-Jun-16 23:55:45

Rice fair enough, I misunderstood your post then.

PrimalLass Sat 25-Jun-16 23:56:51

This is my favourite thread on the matter.

PrimalLass Sat 25-Jun-16 23:57:31

Not Hume, him

MajesticWhine Sat 25-Jun-16 23:58:31

Theresa May is ok. She has kept relatively quiet during the campaign so she could be a good compromise candidate. I desperately want us to find some way out of this, but I don't see how it can happen.

FirstShinyRobe Sat 25-Jun-16 23:59:35

Oh, and I am in no way a DC fan, but his move is genius from a personal political pov in the circumstances. Agree entirely with the OP's article. Shiny Ham Face Dave Underwood. Who'd have thought it?

PrimalLass Sat 25-Jun-16 23:59:57

RiceCrispie - I think we'd take 50 lashes and promise to behave right now if that made it all go away.

QueenLaBeefah Sun 26-Jun-16 00:01:34

I don't blame DC for resigning. Who would want to sort out that shit storm?
Still, it feels like no one is actually running the uK at a critical time. Frightening.
Also, where the hell is George Osborne?

Wordsaremything Sun 26-Jun-16 00:02:09

.

MitzyLeFrouf Sun 26-Jun-16 00:04:15

I do hate Dave and ultimately blame him for this whole sorry mess but I do like the idea of Johnson and Gove being caught unaware by his dumping of the ticking shitstorm bomb in their lap.

ftw Sun 26-Jun-16 00:13:40

Can we opt out of this whole sorry mess, bin all of Westminster and ONLY have Brussels govern us? (Only half kidding...)

LatinForTelly Sun 26-Jun-16 00:15:56

I desperately want us to find some way out of this, but I don't see how it can happen.

I agree Majestic. Although it is interesting that Article 50 hasn't been invoked straight away.

LittleBearPad Sun 26-Jun-16 00:16:17

I don't blame DC at all for thinking 'fuck this, you deal with it Boris'.

Is Boris, like Gordon Brown, going to be an example of when getting what he wants is worse than not getting it at all. Time for him to grow up.

ObiWanCannelloni Sun 26-Jun-16 00:16:56

To add in to the whole cocktail of shitstorm...
Do you think some Tories/DC/BJ actually pleased their cunning plan working out well as Scotland may now leave the union ....meaning left wing party highly unlikely ever to gain power again in the nation that's left given make up of the constituencies...., leaving Tories and white men from Eton in power forever and ever?

RedToothBrush Sun 26-Jun-16 00:20:57

No Obi.

Cos there are too many Kippers

MajesticWhine Sun 26-Jun-16 00:26:51

No I don't think that they are secretly pleased. Infact come to think of it, that might actually be why they looked a bit horrified. The results map highlighted the deep divisions in the country and made Scotland's independence appear inevitable. No one wants to go down in history as the leader who brought down the United kingdom. Boris is a historian. He will be acutely aware of what this means.

ipsogenix Sun 26-Jun-16 00:31:27

That does sound very plausible OP. It's a tricky situation one way or the other, but a useful wake-up call for the EU I think.

sunnydayinmay Sun 26-Jun-16 00:41:10

Bloody good thread, OP.

DioneTheDiabolist Sun 26-Jun-16 00:50:09

Hahahahahahahahaha. The only thing cheering me up at the minute, is the thought of politicians discomfort.

Ta OP.thanks

iniquity Sun 26-Jun-16 00:53:20

I agree, fascinating thread. Looks like the bullingdon club have lifelong membership and the country is now the practical joke gone wrong! If only they stopped at pig fucking.

MitzyLeFrouf Sun 26-Jun-16 00:54:28

I hope someone says Take Back Your Cunt(ry) at some stage during this Tory battle.

RiceCrispieTreats Sun 26-Jun-16 01:29:19

All of you that are unhappy, Get in touch with your MPs. Let them know what you think, especially about the Leave campaign lies.

I hope lots of other actions like this happen.
I also hope that the Leave voters who realise that they were lied to, especially those who have felt disconnected from the elite and the political class their whole lives and were sufficiently fired up by this issue to vote in the first place, that they hold on to that passion and use it to hold BoJo and Gove to account.

AugustMoon Sun 26-Jun-16 01:37:00

The EU was like the Hotel California until 2009 - no one could ever leave. Then Article 50 of the EU Treaty was enacted as part of the Lisbon Treaty, approved after Ireland's second vote in 2009. Once Article 50 is invoked a two-year negotiating timeframe is envisaged.

Extension of the two-year talks term requires unanimous agreement of the remaining 27 member states. Failure to get unanimous agreement would mean the exit would happen automatically.

antimatter Sun 26-Jun-16 01:46:59

I do also hope we can start writing to MP's in protest (meanwhile waiting for the fan in Westminster to begin). I think under 18's could send letter like this too!

antimatter Sun 26-Jun-16 01:47:24

fan=fun FFS!!!!

Jodiebee1986 Sun 26-Jun-16 02:00:30

Jeremy Corbyn sacks Hilary Benn from shadow cabinet... Just

What's going to happen to ireland's border?

RiceCrispieTreats Sun 26-Jun-16 02:07:07

I desperately want us to find some way out of this, but I don't see how it can happen.

Anything could happen.

Just thinking out loud:

- BoJo keeps on playing cricket to skirt the issue until he's elected leader and takes over the premiership. He continues to skirt the issue forever, pretending that he's "consulting" various trade partners to assess what kind of a deal he'd get, until the referendum is just sort of forgotten. Downside: UKIP and Britain First make huge gains at following general election, on the justifiable platform that Leave voters were robbed.

- Theresa May is elected leader. As she was Remain, she says she cannot trigger Article 50, and calls a general election instead. UKIP makes huge gains, but splits the Conservative vote, so a coalition of LibDems?Labour?Green?Conservative comes to power, on a Remain platform.

- Cameron shocks us all by triggering Article 50 at the next Council meeting. Theresa May is elected as leader, and calls GE because she cannot lead these negotiations in good conscience.

- Someone triggers Article 50, whether Cameron or next leader. The negotiated exit deal is unacceptable to the government. Government cannot accept exit deal, and so resigns since it also cannot fulfill the referendum requirement. A general election is called and is won by a coalition of Remainers. They negotiate some kind of deal a la Switzerland, and this time the negotiations are acceptable because enough time has passed, populists in France, Netherlands and Hungary have miraculously been pacified, and it's not Conservative Leavers doing the negotiating.

- EU lawyers make tenuous claim that they can use Article 48 to boot UK out as a treaty amendment. Since UK would need to vote on that amendment, whoever is leader at that point is forced to either concede that the Leave campaign was built on lies and it isn't actually what that government wants, or to resign, trigger general election or second referendum.

- Someone triggers Article 50. The exit negotiations take years and years and years. So much time, that everyone forgets their aggro, populists in other countries are no longer menacing, and the UK ends up with a not-too-bad EFTA type deal.

-...?

ftw Sun 26-Jun-16 02:10:43

- we piss around for so long with any of those, the EU disintegrates

RiceCrispieTreats Sun 26-Jun-16 02:16:44

Yes.

There are plenty of other scenarios where the EU disintegrates, or where the relationship with the EU is broken or highly unfavourable to the UK.

ScarletForYa Sun 26-Jun-16 02:19:12

This is food for thought indeed.

MrsLupo Sun 26-Jun-16 02:22:51

I'm a Labour member and saw JC speaking several times during the campaign. It's true that he worked his socks off, and he is also much more charismatic in person than on camera - not flamboyant, but warm and witty. But the media completely blacked him out. I'm a fan - I think he's principled and fantastically smart and knowledgeable, but the reality is that if the media are going to continue to edit him out of the picture, he can't be a competent advocate for the party, it's just not doable. I voted for him in the last leadership election but if he's ousted shortly I would have to be looking at the competition, albeit with a very heavy heart.

I see the Libdems have already come out saying they would fight a GE on a Remain ticket, which suggests that not invoking Art. 50 is being discussed seriously in Westminster, although behind doors as yet. Like others, I feel a bit less panicky tonight, although no less ashamed of my nation.

And while the UK is indeed a net contributor, British governments and electorate have always under-estimated the fact that, for other countries, it's not about money, as it is here. They lived through WWII in a very different way than the UK did, and for the rest of the EU, the political project is what they see and are emotionally attached to. The UK just spat on that with this referendum, and it is taken as a very grave insult in a way that I think the British public really don't appreciate.

I think this is spot on and well articulated. It is also how I feel about the EU, and have rather resented the assumption that Remainers were cautious rather than passionate.

MrsLupo Sun 26-Jun-16 02:24:11

God, what are we all still doing up at this hour?!

RiceCrispieTreats Sun 26-Jun-16 02:34:21

You're right MrsLupo. Good night, all!

antimatter Sun 26-Jun-16 02:36:00

is 27 for me!
www.buzzfeed.com/robinedds/brexit-tweets-guaranteed-to-make-brits-laugh-cry-or-both?utm_term=.dqyDGd5g07#.tkOnkEWRMA

drivinmecrazy Sun 26-Jun-16 02:39:05

I think we have really under estimated the wrath of the EU. All the retoric from the leave camp had been how we'll have at least 2 years to negotiate a strong exit. In fact what is happening is the EU putting increasing pressure on us to leave ASAP, and who can blame them! Their priority is now to protect the remaining union which they cannot do through generosity and a softly softly approach toward us.
Junker has said this evening that this is not going to be an amicable divirce

BlunderWomansCat Sun 26-Jun-16 02:57:19

Great thread, very interesting.

herecomesthsun Sun 26-Jun-16 03:22:44

Great thread. I think Angela Eagle has a lot of potential for being a good negotiator myself, God knows how you would line that up though.

Shogal Sun 26-Jun-16 06:05:00

Johnson as been "Check Mated", he has seriously underestimated the prowess of Cameron, This is a case of It seems Cameron has lost, but in reality Cameron has destroyed the political career of Johnson, because Johnson will "NEVER" invoke article 50, because he doesn't want Britain to leave the EU.

He knows leaving the EU means the complete disintegration of the United Kingdom, because Scotland will break away, Ireland will become United, and Separately Spain will lay claim to Gibraltar (right so btw)

Also the UK can't leave access to the single market, or else it gets bankrupt.

All this has been caused by that vile racist xenophobic Nigel Farage, who is hell bent on destroying our country, it's time he is truly exposed for his dog whistle politics, because of his racist xenophobic vision of Britain and the "sheep" that follow him is the reason for the mess we find ourselves in.

PrimalLass Sun 26-Jun-16 06:21:33

Merkel has said there is no rush, so the rhetoric is changing.

franke Sun 26-Jun-16 06:43:47

Love this thread. That piece by Nick Cohen linked to earlier is absolutely searing in its disdain. I get the impression that Johnson is not well-liked. Didn't Eddie Mair interview him a few years ago and told him to his face, on live tv "you're a nasty piece of work aren't you?"

Scoopmuckdizzy Sun 26-Jun-16 07:00:19

This is very interesting.

Mistigri Sun 26-Jun-16 07:06:39

the reality is that if the media are going to continue to edit him out of the picture, he can't be a competent advocate for the party, it's just not doable. I voted for him in the last leadership election but if he's ousted shortly I would have to be looking at the competition, albeit with a very heavy heart

I'm no Corbynista but I despair at the number of left-leaning people so desperate to blame Corbyn for Cameron's referendum. But I do think he has to go now, in the interests of installing a centrist candidate to run on a pro-EU ticket in the GE. Not sure who that might be though.

Dozer Sun 26-Jun-16 07:22:57

The article is far too generous to Cameron, who committed to the sodding referendum in the first place to appease part of his party.

That said, it IS now up to the head brexiteers (tossers) to take responsibility for their actions by standing for leader and explaining their plans to deal with shit that happens that they said would all be no problem; and account for all their lies during the campaign. Or remainer tories, eg May, to reject their suitability and do their best.

Osbourne and gove are both likely not to stand as they know (or should know) they are not electable as PM because of public opinion.

SpaceKablooie Sun 26-Jun-16 07:27:54

I've seen the original comment that this thread is based on being shared on FB now. And the (controversial!) petition is nearly at 3M signatures. There are also reports of increased racial verbal abuse on Twitter.

Oblomov16 Sun 26-Jun-16 07:30:12

What a mess!

RedToothBrush Sun 26-Jun-16 07:40:48

I'm no Corbynista but I despair at the number of left-leaning people so desperate to blame Corbyn for Cameron's referendum. But I do think he has to go now, in the interests of installing a centrist candidate to run on a pro-EU ticket in the GE.

I disagree.

They have to go to the left to represent the section of the public that were abandoned by new labour. The BNP did NOTHING until this point and then started to attract support. It was widely felt as early as 2005 that the BNP and UKIP appeals to the same 20% of the electorate. Strangely enough when the BNP imploded, UKIP started to get the same percentage share of the vote in the constituencies they stood candidates in. The main difference between the success of the BNP and UKIP was organisation, money and better PR. So they were able to stand far more candidates on a national level.

This is why I do think a Lib - Lab pact is a better solution. Its cooperative politics which people I think are looking for much more, plus it stops the vote being split which is actually the real problem here now. This means the full Left and Centre is covered giving people choices rather than just meaning that they need to be tribal.

Yes there are a lot of people who don't like the LDs. But they also do have appeal to areas of the electorate that Labour don't - particularly parts of the Conservative vote - mainly those who vote Remain.

I appreciate a pact won't sit well with everyone, but it is probably the best way to tackle the issue.

Personally I think Corbyn hasn't done that bad but he did need to be a bit more decisive and show leadership. The media haven't done him a favour over this, but he his tone perhaps was muted when you put that next to Johnson's Churchill impression. I don't think Corbyn should have gone that far, but being a bit more spirited and positive in a world where image over substance is the order of the day, would just have been being savvy.

Mistigri Sun 26-Jun-16 07:58:24

Red I agree right now that parties proposing a unity government type approach would probably do well. A lib-lab pact might work. But there won't be a GE for a while and the mood will change.

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