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Has Boris been outmanoeuvred?

(978 Posts)
CommanderShepard Sat 25-Jun-16 19:10:54

From a guardian comment:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.


Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

DoinItFine Mon 27-Jun-16 19:54:59

Cameron must have said about 15 times - the outcome of the referendum must be accepted.

He is the least influential politician in Europe at this point. What he says is pretty much irrelevant.

GingerIvy Mon 27-Jun-16 19:56:00

I have visions of 17 million voting for UKIP shock

Badders123 Mon 27-Jun-16 19:58:45

I think that may be where we are headed tbh

noblegiraffe Mon 27-Jun-16 19:58:53

He said that the outcome of the referendum must be accepted while not pressing the red button that will actually start the ball rolling saying it's for the next government, thus putting the actual acceptance of the referendum at least 2 months away and in someone else's hands.

Did anyone else see that Oliver Letwin has been put in charge of Brexit?

Chalalala Mon 27-Jun-16 19:59:09

I don't know about that. A good proportion of the Leave vote were probably marginal decisions, it's a big step from that to voting UKIP. Especially now that it's becoming clear how dangerous and disruptive the Brexit option is.

DoinItFine Mon 27-Jun-16 19:59:11

I'm not scared of a GE.

I never thought I'd be glad the referendum on laternative vote didn't pass, but I am now.

FPTP will protect us from any major UKIP gains.

You can't really argue that an advisory referendum should be implemented without recourse to a GE without looking like an opportunist when it comes to democracy.

RedToothBrush Mon 27-Jun-16 19:59:22

I'm scared of a GE - Nige would get a seat. In fact loads of UKIP would.


SpaceKablooie Mon 27-Jun-16 20:00:45

Ginger, I'm perfectly happy to accept the outcome of the referendum.

I accept that 52% of those voting in the non-legally binding advisory referendum voted to Leave the EU after a ridiculously mis-leading campaign, the main promises of which are now being denied one by one.

I do not accept the fact that we should now just give up on our country though.

ObiWanCannelloni Mon 27-Jun-16 20:01:23

GingerIvy I'm with you, I think MPs who tried to overturn referendum result at this point would have their asses kicked in GE by UKIP putting up people in clown suits...
From a quick peruse of wiki grin it seems to be 25 days to call election

I think the only elegant way is parties say they respect decision, but need a GE is then basically then on in/out lines.... That's only way to potentially end up with a Remain result but say it's been done democratically.

But I'm with you Under I'm fearful of a GE and the swing towards leave candidates, under a banner "we're the only ones who listen to you"

SwedishEdith Mon 27-Jun-16 20:02:47

Do these people have no shame

No, really, no. In a way that thought is worse than the decision to leave. We'll end up becoming a tax haven.

GingerIvy Mon 27-Jun-16 20:05:47

Obi Wow. 25 days. That's scary fast. Cameron said a few things today that indicated they weren't going to call a GE if they could avoid it. He brought up the whole "legislation to finish term was done for a reason, and we feel that reason still exists" or something similar to that.

If they do an aboutface on this, I am going to hide inside for awhile, as it will get ugly.

MitzyLeFrouf Mon 27-Jun-16 20:07:08

Did anyone else see that Oliver Letwin has been put in charge of Brexit?

Yes. The man is a fucking liability!

ObiWanCannelloni Mon 27-Jun-16 20:08:59

Chalala look at the papers today. Leave is being presented as a giant success.
If you don't have shares and you aren't having a foreign holiday this year, do u care less that that's going pear shaped? What does rating downgrade mean to the man in street? (I mean right at this minute.....)

I think a lot of Leave voters are keeping quiet about it and will vote that way again, no matter how many times you ask. Also, as the sky hasn't fallen in, I've had Leave relatives say "see I told you, it's all ok isn't it?" Ask them about Scotland they say, nah, never happen. Until some consequences start kicking in (beyond those people on receiving end of racist hate now angry) then I don't think vast majority of Leavers would change their mind.

Sure, there's a handful of ppl like that Sun ex-editor saying, oh I've got buyers remorse but I wonder how many wobbly remainers are thinking, Erm, this is okay actually.... sad

PattyPenguin Mon 27-Jun-16 20:10:13

I am hoping against hope that someone in the Tory party hates Oliver Letwin and has handed him a hospital pass so that when the Brexit negotiations go pear-shaped, they can make him the scapegoat.

clutching at straws

StillSmallVoiceOfQualms Mon 27-Jun-16 20:11:27

While I'm scared of the potential gains UKIP would get in a GE, I'm tending to agree that it's the fairest option. Not to revoke the decision (however much I might regret that, to do it all again just makes a mockery of the whole thing) but to have a say in how it gets implemented.

I shudder to think of Farage strutting around if he actually has a seat in Parliament though (although you'd never notice that he doesn't at present)

GingerIvy Mon 27-Jun-16 20:13:13

Not familiar with Oliver Letwin. confused

Showmethewaytogohome Mon 27-Jun-16 20:20:25

The parties at a GE can choose their own Mandate. So the Libs have said already they will not invoke A50 and will take the referendum as advisory only

The Torys would ofcourse keep pushing us towards extinction and the Labour party? Who knows if they get someone with some balls and conviction they may also stand on ignoring the vote - or find a middle ground of another ref or a full vote in the commons instead

I'm not worried about UKIP - or their fringe right wing friends. They can't win enough seats to influence. It's the Tory nutters that concern me

MitzyLeFrouf Mon 27-Jun-16 20:20:56

Letwin's a racist idiot who disposed of parliamentary papers in a park bin and really, really wants to see the NHS privatised.

MitzyLeFrouf Mon 27-Jun-16 20:22:25

There's talk of Farage getting a peerage. Now I've always been anti House of Lords but if ever there was a reason to speed up its demise it would be the advent of one Lord Farage.

GingerIvy Mon 27-Jun-16 20:22:56

BREAKING: Understand Peter Mandelson is being suggested by MPs as a potential candidate to oppose Corbyns in a leadership contest.

Breadandwine Mon 27-Jun-16 20:24:09

Professor Michael Dougan analyses the EU referendum debate
One of the UK’s leading EU law experts criticizes the referendum debate’s “dishonesty on an industrial scale”, as he considers the claims and counter claims from each side.

Where was this bloke in the run-up to the referendum? shock

GingerIvy Mon 27-Jun-16 20:24:23

Mitzy ah, thanks. I've not heard his name before.

Corbyn just spoke to a group of people - supposed to be about 4K of them? supporters.

Felascloak Mon 27-Jun-16 20:27:06

Oh fgs they will be wheeling Bliar out next.
I am expecting David Militant to stand though. DH suggested last night he could take Jo Cox's seat sad confused

Felascloak Mon 27-Jun-16 20:27:46

Militant was an autocorrect Bliar was not!

GingerIvy Mon 27-Jun-16 20:29:40

Felascloak Blair has already had tons of people on his facebook asking him to come back and take over Labour leadership, begging him and saying "all is forgiven, please come back and lead us." <vom>

GingerIvy Mon 27-Jun-16 20:30:53

David Milliband pissed off to the states. Is he actually back? Honestly, I don't like him, he's too slick. Don't trust him. Although admittedly, there are precious few I do trust.

Felascloak Mon 27-Jun-16 20:31:18

Fucking hell. I despair.
With any luck Chilcot can lob another hand grenade into the labour party and put paid to that

ObiWanCannelloni Mon 27-Jun-16 20:32:28

GingerIvy they.are.having.a.laugh with Mendelson surely shockshock
It's like Liam Fox running ...
Short memories in politics eh about lack of integrity?

As mentioned elsewhere, chilcott report out v soon and there's speculation that will be toxic for anyone connected with Blair years....

I kinda wistfully hoped Jo Cox's husband would be persuaded to stand for that seat....

MitzyLeFrouf Mon 27-Jun-16 20:34:33

I'm pretty sure the Mandelson thing must be some Twitter japester having a laugh.

NigellasGuest Mon 27-Jun-16 20:35:03

The parties at a GE can choose their own Mandate. So the Libs have said already they will not invoke A50 and will take the referendum as advisory only

if this happens, I will vote LibDem for the first time ever.

Felascloak Mon 27-Jun-16 20:36:09

Linking this just for the lolz and in case anyone else here loves GoT as much as me

Arborea Mon 27-Jun-16 20:36:21

@Breadandwine he was linked to by my Facebook friends a number of times in the run up to the referendum. It is as Adam Wagner said on the blog: there was too much factsplaining in the run up, and Brexit opponents need a different tack to deal with the lies and misinformation that's being peddled.

Sadly I think there's a lot of counter intuitive reactions to Brexit by leave voters, just as many of whom are too stubborn to change their views because to do so would look like weakness, as there are 'buyer's remorse' types.

Finally, I am gravely concerned that Teresa May's opposition to the ECHR and HRA means that things could get even worse if she were to become PM. It pains me to say it, but I suspect that it might be better for the country as a whole for Bozo to have to do his own dirty work.

GingerIvy Mon 27-Jun-16 20:37:45

The BBC’s political editor Laura Kuenssberg is reporting that Peter Mandelson is being floated as a possible leadership candidate.

RedToothBrush Mon 27-Jun-16 20:38:54

Professor Michael Dougan analyses the EU referendum debate
One of the UK’s leading EU law experts criticizes the referendum debate’s “dishonesty on an industrial scale”, as he considers the claims and counter claims from each side.

RedToothBrush Mon 27-Jun-16 20:39:57

Sorry posted too soon.

Where was this bloke in the run-up to the referendum?


GingerIvy Mon 27-Jun-16 20:41:25

The problem I see with the GE is that the same people feel alienated from the government and are going to vote for whoever wants the Brexit. Because they are STILL alienated from the government, and will have just seen the vote they won attempted to be overturned/backed away from in the GE by the No Brexit ticket. You may see some voting to put Leave through because they are not happy with a democratic vote being ignored, or because they don't see anything "sky is falling" happening, so may feel it's going to be fine and go with it. And then of course, any shit from the EU will fire up anti-EU feelings (it wouldn't take much).

GingerIvy Mon 27-Jun-16 20:42:42

Teresa May can't be trusted. She cares nothing for people at all. I hope to God she is not PM. Ever.

ObiWanCannelloni Mon 27-Jun-16 20:43:42

This was Leave.Eu (the Farage camp) official response to those threatening action about the lies..

MitzyLeFrouf Mon 27-Jun-16 20:46:01

The BBC’s political editor Laura Kuenssberg is reporting that Peter Mandelson is being floated as a possible leadership candidate.


Oh dear.

MitzyLeFrouf Mon 27-Jun-16 20:48:11

Obi that UKIP Arron Banks guy really is the scummiest of humans. I feel unclean whenever I see a picture of a him, or hear his voice, or see something he's tweeted. He's like a hybird of Kevin the Teenager and Patrick Bateman.

UnderTheGreenwoodTree Mon 27-Jun-16 20:48:18

Breadandwine, I saw that Michael Dougan video before the vote. It was good - but it seems to me that so many Leavers put their hands over their ears and shouted la la la....

They would have rejected it as 'project fear' if they listened to it at all. Which is a shame really - because he really knows what he's talking about.

RedToothBrush Mon 27-Jun-16 20:51:19

The BBC’s political editor Laura Kuenssberg is reporting that Peter Mandelson is being floated as a possible leadership candidate.

Sorry, for a second there I thought you said that Peter Mandelson was being considered as a possible leadership candidate.

Can you confirm you or Laura K are on crack please as the alternative is even more farcial than most of the Brexit saga so far.

GingerIvy Mon 27-Jun-16 20:52:37

10,000 people in Parliament Square with just 24 hours notice.

In support of Corbyn. Tweeted by John McDonnell, with picture.

GingerIvy Mon 27-Jun-16 20:53:10

Red it was on the Guardian site.

MitzyLeFrouf Mon 27-Jun-16 20:53:57

'Someone's made a fake tweet that claims I'm reporting MPs suggest Mandelson as leader - It's not a real tweet, and not a true story'


Valentine2 Mon 27-Jun-16 20:56:49

I reassure you that I am not taking it as a game. My posts and the laughter in there was sarcastic and I have laughed myself to crying over this oncoming storm. I just keep watching thread after thread on here to clutch some straw.
I have posted this before, I think the night of the referendum results. But do you remember the laughter of Tom Hanks in Money Pit? That's what I am laughing like.

SwedishEdith Mon 27-Jun-16 20:57:15

grin @ David Militant.

Big rally for Corbyn at the moment - sadly, we know lots of people voting for something doesn't mean it's the right thing.

Teresa May is awful. I'd actually prefer Osborne because the Lords throw out everything he proposes (exaggeration).

MunchCrunch01 Mon 27-Jun-16 20:57:55

Corbyn has no respect for labour history, he's prepared to rip the PLP apart. I disliked him before but he's plumbed the depths today. Whoah a flash mob - that's not democracy that's mob rule.

GingerIvy Mon 27-Jun-16 21:00:21

Wait. If Osborne is PM and not Chancellor, does that mean he has to keep his hands off the budget? lol

DorynownotFloundering Mon 27-Jun-16 21:00:43

Much as I'd hate him to be PM I am starting to agree with letting him (Boris) sort out his own mess - why should anyone else commit career suicide mopping up his shit.

God I need wine but can't as being Mum Taxi later sad

ladyjadey Mon 27-Jun-16 21:06:28

I'm finding all of this very interesting indeed, and some of the comments are thought provoking and insightful. I'm only on page 4 of this thread so far but would like to add my thoughts.

Initially as someone who voted remain and never thought for a minute that brexit would win, I was first gobsmacked, then depressed, then angry.

Since then I have thought about the situation since DC resigned and left a radioactive package for someone else to unwrap. It's a real catch 22 as I see it. The EU are refusing to negotiate unless we invoke article 50, there is currently no one who will do so. If anyone accepts this parcel they are undoubtedly committing political suicide.

Seeing as how there's no one rushing in....... We, the public, get to watch and wait. As we do, we see the negative side of the deal. We see the pound plummet, everything cost more and begin to unpick the lies we were fed.

So what happens then? A second referendum without the protest votes? A general election with new leaders to the big two? I personally like JC but can't see him winning over the people because he's just too left for the majority. If BJ wins leadership he will fall on his face. I'm not sure how TM would do if she won but I don't see her having a huge fan club.

I think that we will end up staying in the EU regardless. Unless they physically boot us out which would open a whole new can of worms.

GoudyStout Mon 27-Jun-16 21:06:36

One of the Guardian comments here states that Parliament has to repeal the 1972 European Communities Act, which took us into the EU in the first place, and MPs can refuse to do so if they believe that it is not in the national interest.

Professor Michael Dougan ...Where was this bloke in the run-up to the referendum?

Everywhere, but because he declared that he was for Remain at the outset, as well as holding a Jean Monnet chair, he was rubbished as being biased hmm.

JillyTheDependableBoot Mon 27-Jun-16 21:12:53

Oliver Letwin does have an irreproachable record of fucking things up to a momentous extent. I can't help wondering if this is another smart underhand move by Cameron. Literally everything the man does turns to shit.

InShockReally Mon 27-Jun-16 21:14:48

Quick request ... Before this one runs out, can someone make a new thread and post the link back here? Thank you, am genuinely reading with interest flowers

GoudyStout Mon 27-Jun-16 21:18:10

Letwin - oh good, another Old Etonian who wants to privatise the NHS, recommended dumping the poll tax on the Scots first "as a trial", and is generally a Prize Idiot.

DC really would be handing the shittiest stick ever to Johnson.

RedToothBrush Mon 27-Jun-16 21:18:13

New Thread

Showmethewaytogohome Mon 27-Jun-16 21:18:43

Obi Wow

'Bite me' Really? I think we can see why the tone of the debate was so disgusting - I would have liked to see them in court with NASA tho

BoulevardOfBrokenSleep Mon 27-Jun-16 21:29:00

Yy, GoudyStout DH apparently studied constitutional law at uni, and has been making similar noises about the European Communities Act.

nickyjoli Mon 27-Jun-16 21:30:57

Hear hear felascloke ! Bunch of twats putting their careers before the next generations future, jobs, the economy and latent/accepted racism. We are now left with a country that has done the most spectacular own goal in economic or political history. It is a shambles.

BoulevardOfBrokenSleep Mon 27-Jun-16 21:32:08

Obi - that must be a spoof, right?

nickyjoli Mon 27-Jun-16 21:34:39

I vote for David Miliband to come back and sort this mess out.

ObiWanCannelloni Mon 27-Jun-16 21:43:51

It's legit... He says on his Twitter acct ppl should have a sense of humour about it.....

MitzyLeFrouf Mon 27-Jun-16 21:45:31

The Leave Eu image that Obi printed is REAL.

That really is what we're dealing with!

MitzyLeFrouf Mon 27-Jun-16 21:46:55

Gary Lineker said he takes the 'luvvie' barb as a compliment for his wonderful acting in the Walker crisps ads grin

MitzyLeFrouf Mon 27-Jun-16 21:49:55

Actually I've always thought Lineker was a bit of a plonker but I've loved his Brexit tweeting.

ObiWanCannelloni Mon 27-Jun-16 22:03:35

metro for tomorrow...
"Cameron demob happy" & Focus on Corbyn crisis esp DCs joke about new Labour MP being in shadow cabinet...

No mention of BJ, MG in article.... Johnson really is getting an easy ride....

SybilEngineer Mon 27-Jun-16 22:22:08

Obi - come over to the new thread!

UnderTheGreenwoodTree Mon 27-Jun-16 22:27:43

I have laughed myself to crying over this oncoming storm. I just keep watching thread after thread on here to clutch some straw.
I have posted this before, I think the night of the referendum results. But do you remember the laughter of Tom Hanks in Money Pit? That's what I am laughing like.

Me too, Valentine, me too. It's sort of funny, but I'm worried about my own hysteria - I'm laughing uncontrollably at any funny tweet, Daily Mash Story. My dc are looking at me a bit confused

Scarily, I thought the Leave EU thing was satire - but apparently it's genuine confused Yup. They really are that bad.

Alisvolatpropiis Mon 27-Jun-16 22:34:24

I don't like her particularly but it is Theresa, not Teresa. If we're discussing her, we should get her name right, surely?

LurkingHusband Mon 27-Jun-16 22:45:24

I don't like her particularly but it is Theresa, not Teresa. If we're discussing her, we should get her name right, surely?

Any mis-spelling on my part was accidental, and not intended to offend. if I wanted to offend Theresa May, I'm sure it wouldn't be accidental.

Alisvolatpropiis Mon 27-Jun-16 23:20:19

😂 fair point

It wasn't aimed specifically at you, I've seen it a lot since she announced her decision to run.

Never thought I'd be keen on her being PM but she truly seems the best of a horrific bunch who I didn't vote for anyway.

doraexploradora Mon 27-Jun-16 23:22:59

boris still scrambling for any sort of plan?

UnderTheGreenwoodTree Mon 27-Jun-16 23:59:14

We're over here..... smile wine

VicsterB Tue 28-Jun-16 20:45:49

Love the abbv BoJo, thanks howtorebuild. BoJo is a tragedy of a man.

Wordsaremything Tue 28-Jun-16 21:33:58

This made me laugh out loud for first time in s long while:

puglife15 Wed 29-Jun-16 08:15:03

Vicster someone posted 7pthread that we shouldnt use BoJo or Boris but Johnson or his full name instead. And thinking about it i agree. Even though BoJo is great.

BoJo or Boris plays right into the hands of his posh, affable , harmless buffoon act. The more of us using Johnson the better

MitzyLeFrouf Wed 29-Jun-16 10:38:45

Oh I agree. I hate all that chummy BoJo shizz. He should be referred to as Johnson.

Paris7 Wed 29-Jun-16 18:38:16

Johnson? The Blond bombshell? I think that Fuckwitz is nearer the mark.

The BBC were just alerting me to something I'd missed:
As we are leaving the EU, British EU residents are likely to loose the triple lock pension system. Not only did many of us have no vote, watch our pensions drop live with the exchange rate, but Cameron is saying that the annual 2.whatever% increase is likely to be dropped for British EU residents as he won't be able to afford it.
But it's OK! Boris Fuckwitz says "Project Fear is over", that "pensions won't be affected".... Err... And that "British EU residents will have our rights protected...."
...What fucking rights Boris baby? We weren't even allowed the vote!

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