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Why are the markets and bookies so cocksure that we will remain?

(47 Posts)
Auti Thu 23-Jun-16 11:50:11

Reading the comments section on various different newspapers show time and again support for Brexit. Even many Guardianista's are saying they want to leave and getting many likes/recommendations/up clicks.

Most people I know want to leave.

An in/out poll in the Telegraph early this morning had the leave vote at 69 per cent.

Yet the bookies and markets are sure it's remain.

Very odd..

PumpkinPies38 Thu 23-Jun-16 11:57:30

Polls often get it wrong. I think they're relying on the undecideds remaining as people at last minute tend to swing towards status quo. I wouldn't put much weight in the polls.

YourPerception Thu 23-Jun-16 12:08:02

Cocksure.. Girls... have us by the balls... you don't see this language in thread titles outside this topic.

Viviennemary Thu 23-Jun-16 12:13:04

Because they think they've wheeled out enough 'experts' and done enough scaremongering to make sure enough people vote remain. We shall see. Hope the UK does the right thing for this country and votes out.

Mistigri Thu 23-Jun-16 12:15:41

An in/out poll in the Telegraph early this morning had the leave vote at 69 per cent.

And this tells you what, exactly?

The bookies aren't certain about anything - they give remain about a 75% chance and leave about 25%. That represents a substantial degree of uncertainty in a simple two way poll.

I'm not sure what conclusions you can draw from market movements. On the one hand, trading has been very thin (so most traders are hedging their bets by staying on the sidelines). OTOH those people who are trading seem confident of a remain vote, perhaps based on private research. We don't know.

Auti Thu 23-Jun-16 12:27:49

Ah OK, done a bit of searching, the bookies lost a packet at the general election so they don't always win.

Bookies Ladbrokes and William Hill take a hammering after shock General Election majority win by Tories

and of course the polls were wrong too.

fourmummy Thu 23-Jun-16 12:28:22

Cocksure.. Girls... have us by the balls... you don't see this language in thread titles outside this topic. The gendered, heteronormative metaphors halo flying around are fascinating, implying that gender is an organising principle in this referendum.

fourmummy Thu 23-Jun-16 12:30:20

*organising principle in thinking about this referendum.

RedToothBrush Thu 23-Jun-16 12:30:30

No one is certain of anything. I've not seen anything of substance yet.

Its all about crosses in boxes not opinions and polls.

There has been no movement in the market that makes me think the market or the betting that is sure of anything, yet. Its all balance of probabilities but not more than that.

Liberia Thu 23-Jun-16 12:33:26

The result was decided months ago.

Democracy is an illusion.

fourmummy Thu 23-Jun-16 12:37:03

Liberia Kind of agree with you. Too many 49% vs 51% polls across many different population samples (Austria), timelines and issues than you'd expect by chance.

Auti Thu 23-Jun-16 12:43:18

Thoughtcrime blush

I'll ask mumsnet to edit title ASAP!!


Mistigri Thu 23-Jun-16 12:43:25

That sort of talk begs an important question about why voters for whom Britishness and a sense of pride in British institions is so important, don't think that our supposedly great country is capable of organising a simple two-way poll.

bacimamma Thu 23-Jun-16 13:24:06

grin MIst that made me laugh out loud. Thanks you I needed that brew and cake.

darceybussell Thu 23-Jun-16 13:29:06

Because the latest actual proper polls have remain ahead, not just an online survey for telegraph readers (the majority of whom, as you have seen, are out voters).

The most recent poll released this morning, for example, puts remain ahead by 10 points. So the pound has strengthened because speculators are encouraged by those results.

RedToothBrush Thu 23-Jun-16 14:31:52

I'd actually say that the markets are not that cock sure.
Not a lot is happening yet still.

I thought it looked more confident earlier, and now its calmed down.

Its looking close to me rather than anything else....

MaximumVolume Thu 23-Jun-16 14:44:10

Personally I hardly know anyone who is a Brexit voter. All of my friends and family and the business community I network with are all Pro-Europe.

I know people think the older generation will vote to leave but my acquaintances who are older seem to feel a united Europe is a great thing; much better than the divided one of their childhoods.

Having said that, for the polls to be so close, I guess there must be pockets of people who all vote one way or the other so some people won't come across anyone voting against their views.

Auti Thu 23-Jun-16 14:59:13

Something Strange Emerges When Looking Behind The "Brexit" Bookie Odds

''Two days ago we pointed out something surprising: according to Ladbrokes' head of political betting, Matthew Shaddick, the key catalyst that moved bookie odds on Monday morning, the first day after the suspended campaign in the aftermath of Jo Cox murder was resumed, "we took a £25,000 bet on Remain this morning which helped move the odds in their direction." This in turn unleashed a global asset surge, as markets rebounded on expectations the Leave campaign was losing momentum, even as actual polls - still neck and neck - did not validate such an observation.

Earlier today, Bloomberg confirmed as much:

Investors are piling money into bets on a victory for the “Remain” campaign, led by Prime Minister David Cameron. The pound has surged to a five-month high and European stocks just posted their biggest three-day gain in almost a year, with the U.K.’s benchmark index erasing its monthly decline. Bookmakers have shortened their odds on a vote to stay.

Polls, meanwhile, say the race is too close to call after a swing toward the “Leave” campaign came to an apparent halt last week following the murder of Labour Party lawmaker Jo Cox, a supporter of staying in the EU.

“Rising anticipation that ‘Remain’ will win the vote is driving the market,” said John Plassard, a senior equity-sales trader at Mirabaud Securities in Geneva. “Even if polls are close, people are paying more attention to the bookmakers because that was a much better predictor in past referendums.”
Talking to CNBC, Shaddik quantified the latest odds, which not surprisingly, put Remain's chances of success some three times greater than those of Leave: "at the moment, the odds are suggesting there is a 76 percent chance the U.K. will vote to stay in the European Union", once again caveating that this is "despite the polls still showing this is more or less a dead heat."

But is that really the case?

When one looks at the actual dynamics within the bookies, an odd divergence emerges. As Shaddick said, when looking at the underlying flows determining bookie odds, there is a very clear divergence when it comes to number of bets versus the amount of any given bet: "Although Ladbrokes has received a higher volume of bets to leave the EU, those making a punt on remain were placing higher financially larger. Shaddick revealed the average stake on a bet to remain was £450, compared to £75 on a bet to leave."

In other words, a few large bettors are skewing the bookie odds dramatically in the favor of Remain, even as the mass of bettors is betting on Leave, albeit with smaller cash amounts. Another way of putting it: a substantially outsized influence by a wealthy minority over the poor majority, just like in every other aspect of life.

Moments ago Ladbrokes confirmed as much when it pointed out that while the probability of Brexit remains at only 24%, two thirds or 62% of all bets being placed today are for Leave, the same as yesterday.

In a tweet, Ladbrokes also noted the stark divergence in bet sizes which is prompting the skew in the line, which while modestly less than what Shaddick told CNBC, still showed the average Remain vote as 5x greater than Leave:

Ladbrokes: Average bet size
1:47 PM - 22 Jun 2016

One simple, if very cynical explanation, is the following: wealthy financial entities, including local banks and rich individuals, all of whom have an interest in keeping the UK in the EU and preserving the status quo, are placing far larger bets, even if their number is ultimately far lower than the number of people betting on Brexit. And in yet another case of reflexivity, with the public seeing that "Remain" is winning based on bookie odds, it is shifting popular sentiment toward Remain, even as the vast majority of bets is actually for Leave.

To be sure, none of this is broken down when either the investing or general public see the bookie odds: they just note 76% chance of Leave, when in reality almost two thirds of bookie bettors are voting to Leave, despite not having nearly the financial capacity to offset the bookie line as a result of the few massive bets being placed on the other side.

Of course, the actual referendum is a democratic, and popular one, not one where the rich can influence or buy votes, and as such far more important is not the skew to the Brexit or Bremain line due to outsized bets, but the actual number of bets in any direction. As such, it would be certainly useful to the British voting public to know not just the bottom line odds, but how they got to where they are, which as Ladborkes admits, it "has received a higher volume of bets to leave the EU."

Substantially larger in fact, some 62% to 38%, which also explains the dramatic divergence between the neck and neck polling and the actual Brexit odds which see Remain winning with whopping 76% odds. Because it is those 38% supports of Remain, whose outsized bets are driving not only the reported odds, but also global market sentiment.

The real question is whether that same wealthy minority which is influencing bookie odds will also be able to manipulate the final Referendum outcome in less than 24 hours.''

BritBrit Thu 23-Jun-16 15:04:46

the odds are starting to get better again for Brexit, it started the day at 3/1 fell to 7/1 & is now backup to 4/1 & falling

Auti Thu 23-Jun-16 15:06:44

Given the above article, I think I'm off to the bookies wink

BritBrit Thu 23-Jun-16 15:09:53

agree Auti that is a very interesting point, remain are getting far fewer individuals betting on remain but they are betting big sums, but leave is getting a big number of people betting on it but smaller bets, could be a sign leave is being underestimated

RosesareSublime Thu 23-Jun-16 15:11:38

only skimmed op but I am dumbed found how they can poosibley guess this stuff

Auti Thu 23-Jun-16 15:14:48

Roses, the elites are scum who will do anything they can to trick and deceive ordinary people, to pursue their own ends.

RedToothBrush Thu 23-Jun-16 15:21:36

I've posted all that previously. At least twice.
Its close I think. I'm tracking the betting.

This morning it went Remain's direction.

The last hour on the bookies has been all over the place.
There has been a lot of money that has been going on Leave, then Remain, then Leave again.

Its getting bumpy.

The FTSE is following a similar pattern.

Certainly there is no massive surge to be seen...

shinytorch2 Thu 23-Jun-16 15:22:29

only skimmed op but I am dumbed found how they can poosibley guess this stuff

City Traders do this for a living, day in day out......based on research (from experts wink) they place their bets....guess what, the research isn't always right and sometimes they lose a lot of money...sometimes it's right and they win a lot of money.

Just like studying the form for the races really.......

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