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what will happen to UKIP if the majority vote to leave?

(51 Posts)
HarumScarumSanitarium Tue 21-Jun-16 00:13:28

If we leave the EU, it occurred to me there will not be a need for Ukip as we would already be independent, with not much chance of going back in. The conservatives will have carried out UKIP's main drive. Am I wrong?

Millyonthefloss2 Tue 21-Jun-16 00:22:47

They will disappear. Another great reason to vote leave!

Brokenbiscuit Tue 21-Jun-16 00:37:49

My guess is that they will shift even further to the right. Obviously, Brexit won't solve the problems that many people are facing and if the economy crashes, it will just make things worse. People will need a new scapegoat, so I imagine that UKIP will turn its attention to non-EU migrants. Or perhaps some other group that it decides it doesn't like.

claig Tue 21-Jun-16 00:41:52

In theory, they should do even better because their position over the EU will have been vindicated and many people will say they were right all along. They also represent working and middle class voters of the common sense tradition who are not represented by the Establishment's Labour and Tory parties.

However, I expect the Etablishment will destroy them by using the embedded stooges they have placed inside UKIP to create dissension and splits which will make it struggle to be electable.

OrangesandLemonsNow Tue 21-Jun-16 00:46:59

I think if we remain they will grow even stronger shock

claig Tue 21-Jun-16 00:55:45

'The conservatives will have carried out UKIP's main drive. Am I wrong?'

It all depends what happens to the COnservative party. The Conservative party as it is now under Cameron and the team is not really conservative as everybody knew it. It is Blairite rather than Thatcherite.

If Leave win, then the Tories will ditch Cameron and much of the team, and change. However, I doubt they will really change much because most of the until recently were part of the team and went along with the team's objectives.

That is why UKIP grew, because it fills the gap for common sense conservatives who did not agree with the team and the hugging of hoodies etc. So UKIP can only grow, particularly as the Labour Party is led by Corbyn and a challenging bunch of graduates from Oxbridge who do not realte to millions of ordinary working class voters who used to be their traditional base. Many of those people will prefer common sense UKIP over claptrap Corbyn or the Oxbridge Labour team.

So UKIP has a real future as a populist, common sense party of ordinary people combining the good things of Labour with traditional common sense conservatism and ditching the hoodie hugging Etonian Oxonian Cameron and the team stuff.

But, the Establishment does not want a people's party, a populist party, because it can't control it, so I think they will destroy it and we will back to the usual TweedleDee and TweedleDum.

claig Tue 21-Jun-16 01:04:03

Although, if we really do vote to Leave, I think it will be a real earthquake because the people will have rejected the advice and scaremongering of their leaders and all the "experts" they were able to muster, and that will discredit the entire Establishment and as they reel, they will have to change and our whole politics could change afterwards as we would have to be granted PR voting by our reeling Establishment as the same old, same old Oxbridge game would no longer fool the voters.

GingerCuddleMonsterThe2nd Tue 21-Jun-16 01:04:27

If the way the EU states have been voting recently tell us anything, if we remain they will grow. The far right is worryingly creeping in all over the mainland.

Brokenbiscuit Tue 21-Jun-16 01:10:03

Honestly speaking, I think the far right will grow in strength either way. This whole campaign has unleashed something that can't now be contained. So much resentment has been whipped up around the topic of immigration, and there has been so much deliberate scapegoating. Then Farage goes on the TV defending his blatantly racist propaganda and somehow it normalises that kind of attitude.

claig Tue 21-Jun-16 01:14:27

UKIP is not far right. In Britain, we do not have a far right like France's Front National or other far right parties in Europe.

UKIP is essentially a Thatcherite traditional common sense middle class Tory style party combined with common sense working class traditional Labour style politics. It is essentially an anti-establishment, populist, low regulation, local democracy, pro business party.

It is a bourgeois and working class combination in opposition to the Etonian style governing class.

georgetteheyersbonnet Tue 21-Jun-16 01:20:56

Although, if we really do vote to Leave, I think it will be a real earthquake because the people will have rejected the advice and scaremongering of their leaders and all the "experts" they were able to muster, and that will discredit the entire Establishment and as they reel, they will have to change and our whole politics could change afterwards as we would have to be granted PR voting by our reeling Establishment as the same old, same old Oxbridge game would no longer fool the voters.

hahahahahahahahahaahahaaa! <wipes eyes from laughing>

Atlas15 Tue 21-Jun-16 01:21:49

How many times can you say common sense in one post?

Brokenbiscuit Tue 21-Jun-16 01:21:55

I find UKIP to be quite far right. The racist poster that they unveiled last week was a good example of this.

claig Tue 21-Jun-16 01:28:33

'I find UKIP to be quite far right.'

That is what Cameron tries to scare the people with by warning the country not to choose a Farage future and where the Remain leaflet posted to us had the entire back page all about stopping Farage etc.

But this is all scaremongering because Farage and UKIP are not far right and are nothing like the far right parties on the continent.

Don't forget that it was the shameless Tory Party who used a smear campaign against Sadiq Khan, paid for vans with mobile signs saying if you are an illegal immigrant, you should leave the country and one of whose minister's said that areas of teh country were being "swamped" by immigrants when the Tories were struggling to be elected, even if they allegedly overspent on campaigns in certain areas and did not declare all the expenses they ought to have done.

They are the "nasty party" dressed up as hoodie huggers.

They are scared of Farage and UKIP because they have taken away their common sense vote, and therefore just as the Etonian and Oxonians smeared Sadiq Khan, so they smear Farage for different reasons.

Somerville Tue 21-Jun-16 01:34:42

I don't dislike Farage or consider UKIP to be quite far right because other politicians smear him. Farage works hard himself to give me those opinions.

claig Tue 21-Jun-16 01:37:11

The Tory Party are the Bullingdon Club on steroids disguised by smarmy PR techniques and spin dished out by the same teenage whizzkids from Oxbridge who did their work for Blair as he changed Labour beyond all recognition. The problem for them is that the people are now wise to the game and are no longer listening to their scaremongering and the "experts" they are able to dredge up, and that is why they have gone overdrive to try and scare the voters about a "Farage future".

tilder Tue 21-Jun-16 01:54:52

Ukip are a right wing party. Not quite so right wing as the BNP but still. ..

Please don't try and patronise people by inferring that to believe that is to be brainwashed by the main parties.

I am scared by a Farage future because of him. What he says, what he does, his values. It saddens me that he has found such an audience in the widea population.

claig Tue 21-Jun-16 02:12:16

UKOP are not far right, they are right wing but also have left wing elements that differ from right wing Tories.

Spinflight Tue 21-Jun-16 02:59:17

Oddly enough the best outcome for ukip is a narrow vote to remain.

Also the best possible debate a controversial and scaremongering one.

The reason is simple, in 2020 the only way the UK could possibly leave the EU is by returning a majority ukip government.

Posit a scenario where a newly emboldened EU accelerates its plans for an EU army, or allows Turkey in, or sees the rise of the far right, or further economic decline, or another EU country leaves and does well, or civil servants leak deliberate deceptions, or Camerons reforms are vetoed etc. Too many possibilities to list really...

Wouldnt take much to see ukip riding high with a big I told you so in 2020.

I seem to recall that there is something in ukips manifesto that disbands them once out of the EU. Not sure though .

kinkytoes Tue 21-Jun-16 08:29:11

I agree Spin. If Remain wins, UKIP will form at least part of the next government. They lost votes to the Tories last time because they promised the referendum.

Brokenbiscuit Tue 21-Jun-16 08:47:32

Claig, it's incredibly patronising when you suggest that people have been brainwashed. It isn't the "establishment" that has made me believe that Farage and UKIP sit firmly on the far right of British politics. Quite the contrary. It is Farage and UKIP themselves who have convinced me of that.

As I said earlier, watching Farage defend that vile racist poster was a good example. Or was that all a conspiracy by the Remain campaign and he didn't really say what I saw him saying?

I don't disagree that there are racist elements in the Tory party. The tone of the campaign against Sadiq Khan was appalling, and sadly, just another reflection of how the country as a whole has swung to the right. That doesn't make Farage any less right wing however.

shinytorch2 Tue 21-Jun-16 08:49:22

I agree that a vote to remain will embolden UKIP - their job is not done.

I think they will win many more than 4million votes in 2020, from both Tory and Labour voters, whether they are converted UKIPpers or protest voters.

I think there is a real chance of a hung parliament in 2020 - I know many people who voted Tory last time who will not vote for them again - they are disgusted with Cameron and Osborne and how they have conducted this campaign, and Corbyn will not be able to get a majority.

Also by then, who knows what the EU will look like?

BreakingDad77 Tue 21-Jun-16 12:25:34

Tories will hoover them up will kicking out pro-euro people most likely.

Winterbiscuit Tue 21-Jun-16 14:28:48

After the first couple of weeks, hopefully the media would stop constantly putting Farage out there!

UKIP only got 12.6% of votes in the last election, have 1 MP (not Farage). Farage has no connection to the official Leave campaign.

From the number of times he appears, you'd think he was Head of Brexit. Far from it.

Littlemisslovesspiders Tue 21-Jun-16 14:32:27

I know many people who voted Tory last time who will not vote for them again

There are a lot of people who also won'the vote Labour whilst Corbyn is still leader.

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