What actually happens if we leave? Qs for out voters.

(43 Posts)
Cerea1killer Mon 20-Jun-16 11:29:16

Morning,

I have a few questions for out voters. I've had a look, tried to see if these had already been asked, but couldn't find anything. I've been trying to read as much of the arguments for both sides as I can, but small babies and in depth reading don't really go together. So far, I'm edging towards remain.

What actually happens if we leave? Let's take the immigration issue as one issue, just for the purposes of using an issue here, and this is obviously one that has been widely discussed. So, we vote to leave the EU. The out campaign in various places has focussed on us being able to do away with free movement in the EU, impose our own limits on immigration. But what say if at the next general election Labour win, and they decide to introduce legislation to keep immigration exactly as it is now i.e have free movement between us and other EU countries? And say that is successfully voted through Parliament? Therefore one of the issues that was so important to the leave campaign, and various promises made, hasn't changed at all. Same with money no longer given to the EU. There's nothing to say that will go to the NHS is there?

Could that actually happen? As I say, I'm edging towards remain, and the above hypothesis is partially why. It's all a big unknown if we leave isn't it? So therefore what are the factual reasons to vote leave? Surely it's all scenarios that may or may not happen? Whereas if we stay life will carry on as it is now? Apologies if this is a bit garbled, or my questions and comments appear stupid. I have a non-sleeping baby and am currently operating on three to four hours per night.

ItMustBeBedtimeSurely Mon 20-Jun-16 11:41:31

Well, no government would introduce totally free immigration. It would be political suicide. Both labour and Tories promised to curb immigration in their election pledges.

Our government are limited - they are there to represent us. It doesn't mean they'll never act without public support, but they only have four year terms, and there is a strong opposition to keep them in check.

We have far far less influence over EU policy.

OurBlanche Mon 20-Jun-16 11:47:27

What will happen is that there will be some turmoil for a while but that, starting a few weeks in, diplomatic and business contacts will start working, new deals will be done, new agreements reached.

Very quickly we will meet the new boss, and they will be much the same as the old boss.

The alternative is to believe that when we leave the UK will simply cease to exist, will die of starvation, will become Pariah.

And I do believe that very many countries in and around the continent of Europe really do exist, have trade agreements, can be visited without fear of death.

I am still undecided, but the fearmongering of the Remain campaign, and the apparent assumption that I am thick as a brick and believe all of their tripe, unquestioningly, would be what makes me vote Leave... if only the Brexiters weren't equally ridiculous!

YourPerception Mon 20-Jun-16 12:24:20

You will be able to vote out law makers you don't like which you can't do now. Your MEP doesn't make EU laws.

You won't be paying for law makers on the EU you will be taxed only by law makers in Westminster.

0phelia Mon 20-Jun-16 12:52:43

What will happen if we leave?

The UK will become a beacon of hope, an inspiration and leader of independence. A country that listens to and recognises the wishes of it's own people.

A country no longer governed by unwanted, unelected, unaccountable, faceless bureaucrats.

We will lead to way for a new Europe free from the sluggish inefficient cumbersome EU. We will set an example that countries should be able to control their own economy, their own laws and represent their own people. The rest of the world will look to up us as one of the strongest economies in the world with the strongest minded people and it will go down in history as one of the greatest movements for freedom and independence of this century.

That's what.

Cerea1killer Mon 20-Jun-16 12:53:23

Thanks for your replies.

I've been looking again at the leave campaign website this morning. I came across this page, which details in brief what we would be able to do if we leave the EU:

www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/why_vote_leave

So, with the money saved, we could put more into the NHS. We could control our borders in a different way. We could have our own trade agreements with other countries. But will all this definitely happen? The government of the day could funnel that money elsewhere. The government of the day could decide not to adopt a points-based immigration system as suggested in the above link. Surely all these things have to go through Parliament, and governments and leaders change. Other countries may choose not to trade with us, or to offer terms that are less favourable than we currently have.

This is what is bothering me about the leave campaign. Surely it's all theoretical? We could do lots of things, but there's no guarantee that those will happen. And we'd stay roughly the same if we stayed in the EU. But I'm not 100% happy with the EU. I don't want to leave if it's all just ideas, rather than what will happen though.

unexpsoc Mon 20-Jun-16 13:09:34

Ophelia is right.

Not only that, but we will be richer and stronger, our hair will be shinier, and we will lose that extra few pounds we have been carrying.

It will be like having a lottery win every week for everyone. The government will have to install taps for the free milk and honey every mile along public roads.

London can get rid of the drab concrete paving slabs and replace them with 22 carat gold.

The sky will be bluer, the grass will be greener and we will finally get Jimmy Hill back on Match of The Day instead of that ghastly Gary Lineker.

namechangeparents Mon 20-Jun-16 13:12:26

Without doubt - if we leave the EU the weather will be better. That's an absolute.

Otherwise: chaos and turmoil.

Even though I want us to stay in, I am struggling to understand why (a) we are having a referendum if it's so bad to leave the EU, ie why give us the choice and (b) why the EU didn't do more to appease Cameron if it's so bad for the EU if we leave it.

Millyonthefloss2 Mon 20-Jun-16 13:18:21

smile unexpsoc

You are funny but Ophelia is right.

Let's be optimistic and idealistic. Optimism works.

RedToothBrush Mon 20-Jun-16 14:00:43

Donald Trump, becomes president of the world after marrying Putin to save us all from nuclear Armageddon.

This is shortly before a major volcanic eruption in Iceland, wipes out crops in much of Europe leading to mass exodus to Australia, who can't keep out thousands of jumbo jets and cruise ships arriving illegally filled with people, with its point system alone.

This turns into a shoot out, which the Europeans loose because they don't have an single army and are unable to coordinate and the Aussie's secret military weapon of training wild kangaroos to be able to wield a gun proves to be a resounding success. If only because they confuse the Europeans so much they end up killing half their own in friendly fire incidents.

Oh and sharks. Sharks must be in there doing something bad. I know, they decide to eat all British fish. Just to spite us.

Meanwhile in the Middle East, everyone goes 'thank fuck for that'.

And then everyone lives happily ever after.

The End.

(Alternatively we follow Article 50 and watch years of guaranteed bickering politicians of all political allegiance and nationality because no one can manage to agree on anything but this is too boring to post about).

unexpsoc Mon 20-Jun-16 16:48:08

Milly - I will take a carefully thought through plan of action, clear goals and objectives and political will ahead of optimism ANY day

YourPerception Mon 20-Jun-16 17:29:10

We don't know what the money saved from EU membership will go. We continue paying in for two years.

You ensure in 2020 you elect a MP with a manefesto that will use the money in a way that makes you happiest.

RedToothBrush Mon 20-Jun-16 17:55:01

So, with the money saved, we could put more into the NHS. We could control our borders in a different way. We could have our own trade agreements with other countries. But will all this definitely happen? The government of the day could funnel that money elsewhere. The government of the day could decide not to adopt a points-based immigration system as suggested in the above link. Surely all these things have to go through Parliament, and governments and leaders change. Other countries may choose not to trade with us, or to offer terms that are less favourable than we currently have.

Nail. Head.

OurBlanche Mon 20-Jun-16 19:12:24

This is what is bothering me about the leave campaign. Surely it's all theoretical? We could do lots of things, but there's no guarantee that those will happen. It is precisely the same for the Remainers... No guarantees whichever way we go... The bottom line is... nobody knows

DoinItFine Mon 20-Jun-16 19:26:24

It is precisely the same for the Remainers... No guarantees whichever way we go... The bottom line is... nobody knows

Um... confused

It's not remotely the same for the Remainers.

How can staying with the status quo be remotely as uncertain as throwing all the oieces up in the air with no idea of how they might land.

The reality is that leaving is risky, especially in the short to medium term.

Remaining is the conservative, cautious decision.

They are not remotely equal in that sense.

What nonsense.

OurBlanche Mon 20-Jun-16 19:35:03

Ermm... yes it is. Which government? What cuts will be made next? What changes to the issues of immigration etc will be made? How many of the pre-vote promises will be kept? How many of the Leave or Die facts are true?

We have no idea if any of the Reasons to Remain are in any way true...

There are no guarantees that we will be safer in than out...

Neither side can make any guarantees. There are no crystal balls.

I am not stupid, I know what I said and what I meant. You may have read it in a far more disparaging manner, but that is down to your thought process, not mine!

FadedRed Mon 20-Jun-16 19:39:32

staying with the status quo
The EU has been changing for as long as it has existed. It will keep changing.
In 1973, there was a large part of Europe within the Soviet Bloc. That changed from 1989 and so did the EU. And the world within and outside the EU continue to act and react to circumstances as they occur.
We don't have any evidence as to what will happen either way, just opinions. Some based on intelligent and/or experienced guesswork, some not.

DoinItFine Mon 20-Jun-16 19:41:08

If you think the issue of "which government?" Is a significant uncertainty in a democracy of several centuries standing (not to mention one that has recentky introduced fixed term parliaments) then I don't know what to say to you.

It is evidently (and always) true that nobody can see the future.

That clearly doesn't mean that all courses of action are equally risky.

Lokisglowstickofdestiny Mon 20-Jun-16 19:47:42

Europe has changed massively from the Common Market to what it is now, it will continue to change, there is uncertainty on both sides, granted more so on the Leave side but is the conservative "safe" option always the best route, it may not prove to be safe in the long run.

DoinItFine Mon 20-Jun-16 19:47:43

Of course the EU has been changing.

SLOWLY

We have a fair idea of things that are likely to hapoen if the UK doesn't change its International agreements.

We have no idea of what will happen if we seek to make a change of this significance.

It will be a big change.

There are lots of contingencies that haven't been worked out.

If we don't leave, there is no immediate change at all to our status.

You can think that is a good thingbor a bad thing.

But it is a thing.

Voting to leave is voting for the unknown. Lots think that's a risk worth taking.

Voting to stay is voting for more of the same (based on the kinds of changes that have always happened).

Salene Mon 20-Jun-16 19:49:13

They will spend the next 2 years divorcing the EU then the following 10 years building new agreements etc with other countries

It's a long slow process and things won't change quickly

PlatoTheGreat Mon 20-Jun-16 19:53:18

Re the trading agreements.
It takes a very long time to finalise a trading agreement.
The EU has finalised agreements with lots of different countries, incl China or South Korea. Renegociating those as the UK alone will take a very long time indeed (that was 10 years for the EU to finalise the one with China) and that is, if said countries are happy to have an agreement with the U.K.

Control of borders - yes but the borders will be in the UK, not in France.

More money? Well who knows where it will go reducing taxes for the richest would be my guess if the Conservatives stay

I think that by voting Remain yoou have an idea of what is going to happen in the next 2~5 years. Then things can and will change (because the EU changes, general international environment changes etc etc)
If you vote Leave, you have no idea at all because most of what is said to be happening when we finally leave the EU is just guess work.

OurBlanche Mon 20-Jun-16 19:53:45

Doinitfine if you can't see that I am pointing out that there is no certainty and that Remaining could be just as bad for the UK as Leaving.

Anyone who tries to say that the more conservative course is safer than the more risky one is deluding themselves.

We have a growing underclass that depends on benefits. Many of them are hard working people who have no choice but to top up shite wages with tax credits, people who cannot meet the coat of the housing market etc. Currently all benefits are under scrutiny... that is what is happening, is part of that conservative choice. That and lost of other things.

It is utterly disigneuous to say it is safer to stay as we are when how we are is slowly degenerating into chaos for those who need most help.

And I am NOT saying that Leaving will make any difference. Just that holding out Remain as a safe bet is a lie. There are no safe bets!

meditrina Mon 20-Jun-16 19:54:06

"But will all this definitely happen?"

Yes/no/maybe, but it'll be Westminster and the government that we vote in who decides.

"Voting to stay is voting for more of the same (based on the kinds of changes that have always happened)."

Nah. It's like financial ads - past performance is no indicator of future returns. Especially when things like announcements on an EU Army are being held until after the vote.

I am so strongly reminded of the voices who told us we'd be all doomed if we didn't join the Euro.

Remain isn't a 'safe' option. Because it's signing up for wherever the EU goes. There is no status quo option.

OurBlanche Mon 20-Jun-16 19:59:50

Ooooh! The Beeb man has just said exactly what I was saying... nobody knows, no safe options, down to a matter of personal preference smile

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