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Does anyone else think they know what the result will be?

(122 Posts)
WalrusGumboot Tue 14-Jun-16 15:16:57

Just a little theory. I think Brexit will emerge victorious. My theory is that no-one predicted the Conservatives would win the general election last year but they did (despite polls and lots of support for the opposition on social media).

I think many people voted for them in order to get the referendum (Conservatives the only party to promise this in their manifesto) and why would you want a referendum unless you want to leave?

Add to that all the UKIP voters and others as well, and I think the majority of British voters will vote Leave.

Does anyone else have any thoughts on which way it will go?

YourPerception Tue 14-Jun-16 15:19:24

I gather undecided voters two to one, vote with the status quo. So remain will win.

claig Tue 14-Jun-16 15:42:23

I think Brexit will win as long as there is no jiggery-pokery.

The reason is that Brexiters are enthusiastic and excited at the prsospect of having a vote and therefore will turn out to vote in droves.

The Remain vote is not as passionate and attempts to get more young voters to help them by increasing the registration deadline or using scaremongering tactics won't get enough of them out to the polls.

unexpsoc Tue 14-Jun-16 16:09:15

I am hoping (as we saw in Scotland) that the outers are a very vocal minority. That if there is a high turnout that will be good for Remain. I am told to expect in my area a record turnout - that should point for Remain. Also, the postal vote is very high - which shows well for Remain.

ThroughThickAndThin01 Tue 14-Jun-16 16:16:19

I think it will be very close.

Our remain leaflet we are encouraged to put it in our window said 41%/41%.

I think a lot of people may change their minds on the day.

I think remain will just pip it. <sadly>

unexpsoc Tue 14-Jun-16 16:27:21

I just hope that the result is complied with. Really angry at the thought of either the vote leave campaign claiming jiggery-pokery and maintaining doubt over the outcome (which has seen my companies share price alone fall by 10% in the last two weeks). Equally (if not more) afraid that the house of commons sticks two fingers up by trying to go back to the drawing board and getting another referendum.

Limer Tue 14-Jun-16 16:41:39

I think there's a real momentum built up for Leave now, and Leave will win, albeit by a narrow margin. That wasn't the case a month ago, but the tide has really turned against the EU as people have really started to understand what this referendum is all about.

Jelliedeels Tue 14-Jun-16 17:06:23

Here's hoping for leave I have everything crossed

WalrusGumboot Tue 14-Jun-16 17:09:05

What is the jiggery-pokery you are referring to?

claig Tue 14-Jun-16 17:13:14

It really means rigging of votes. Lots of people think postal votes can be sometimes subject to it etc, but there are other ways as well.

RedToothBrush Tue 14-Jun-16 17:18:13

I'm actually thinking it'll depend on the weather now!

High turnout favours Remain.
Higher turnout is more likely if its good weather.
If it pisses it down we'll definitely leave.
If it stays dry, Remain has a small chance, which is rapidly diminishing by the day.

The forecast for next week is shite.

EnthusiasmDisturbed Tue 14-Jun-16 17:43:44

I think we will just remain in the EU

The turnout will be high. Next election we shall end up with ukip in parliament

I think even if we remain in if the vote is that close and I think it will be it will have an impact on our politics in the future and there will be another referendum in the next 20 years

VikingMuchToAllOurLiking Tue 14-Jun-16 17:50:32

I think we will exit- it will be just like Boaty McBoatface. The more it becomes clear it's a bonkers idea, the more people will be determined to do it.

Next we will be voting in Boris as PM...

BreakingDad77 Tue 14-Jun-16 17:58:13

Im thinking more and more its going to be brexit as the tide has changed from blaming government to blaming foreigners.

There so much more passionate 'taking our country back' talk than the bitter pill we as remainers will have to swallow of being on the same side as cameron.

Motheroffourdragons Tue 14-Jun-16 18:00:42

Bookies odds are for a victory for remain. I think they were right in the general election and the Scottish independence referendum.

Motheroffourdragons Tue 14-Jun-16 18:05:39

Actually they weren't right in the general election but they were in the indyref.

akkakk Tue 14-Jun-16 18:21:35

The one common view seems to be that most people don't like the approach being taken by any of the politicians... A leave vote could be seen as a vote against politicians (as most wish to stay)

ImperialBlether Tue 14-Jun-16 18:32:29

All of Scotland and Wales will vote to Remain. Does anyone know about NI?

I think there's a bit of a social class thing going on, tbh. <Awaits flaming>

Jelliedeels Tue 14-Jun-16 18:33:14

Imperial - why ? How do you know that

WalrusGumboot Tue 14-Jun-16 18:38:13

On that note can I ask, does every vote count or is it being counted by constituency?

HomoNeanderthalensis Tue 14-Jun-16 18:43:41

I think it may be close, but if the Brexit vote wins, the government will find a way of circumnavigating the win and wriggle out of it so we end up staying.

Either that, or the vote will be rigged and it's a foregone conclusion that we stay.

Either way, we're never going to leave. We're stuck with this forever.

Democracy is just an illusion. Something to keep the population quiet and avoid unrest and civil disobedience.

Rhubardandcustard Tue 14-Jun-16 18:45:59

Think it's going to be close, and even though I'm voting out, I think the remain campaign will just be slightly ahead.

claig Tue 14-Jun-16 19:11:38

ImperialBlether, I heard that Leave are ahead in Wales according to polls

claig Tue 14-Jun-16 19:13:17

'On that note can I ask, does every vote count or is it being counted by constituency?'

I think that in referendums, every vote counts

ShowChin Tue 14-Jun-16 19:13:28

I think it may be close, but if the Brexit vote wins, the government will find a way of circumnavigating the win and wriggle out of it so we end up staying.

^^ This - it was pointed out to me today that this is a referendum, not a * mandate* - the government don't have to act on it (and probably won't if they can help it)

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