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Economic benefits of leaving the EU and the dodgy dossier..

(15 Posts)
Spinflight Thu 09-Jun-16 20:24:14

Been thinking about the famous treasury report which Osbourne was clinging to last night.

Now whilst the word rigorous is used throughout the document to self describe it there isn't a single economic benefit listed.

I think most people would assume that there would be positive and negative effects associated with Brexit so it puzzles me that the treasury couldn't find any positive ones.


For instance we currently have a situation where companies such as Starbucks and Amazon hardly pay any tax in this country. Many set themselves up in Ireland or Luxembourg ( Lidl, Aldi, Google etc) in order to avoid it.

Now I'm not an accountant but with Corporation tax at 20% and the turnovers of the top ten tax avoiders being well north of £20 billion a year how did the treasury miss this obvious extra income stream in the Brexit case?

Surely they should pat VAT too?

And what of fisheries? In order to join the EEC we gave away our fishing grounds. Whilst we fish them we do so alongside the rest of Europe and only get a small proportion of them for ourselves.

Norway retains control of it's fisheries and exports over £5 billion per year. We actually import more fish than we export, which is often going to be us buying our own fish back!

Again how on earth did the treasury not see any positive effects whatsoever from this?

Granted some of the other assumptions were, shall we say, a bit difficult to justify. Particularly the idea that we wouldn't sign a single trade deal in 15 years and that immigration would be completely unaffected.

If we take back control of our borders then I think we can assume that immigration would either come right down or bring economic advantages from being able to cherry pick the best and the brightest.

This however, either way, would have a positive economic effect, yet none is listed.

Indeed the report states that the economy will have grown by 6% less in 15 years time under Brexit. Given current growth of 2% this appears to infer that a Brexit scenario would reduce growth to about 1.88% per annum though the treasuries forecasts for the last 5 years have never been anywhere near within 0.1% of being right a few years ahead rather than 15....

Surely leaving the EU would allow us to ditch some of the bonkers legislation which ties our businesses up in knots and regulates the life out of them?

In which case surely this should result in increased competitiveness and an economic gain? None are listed.

So granted some industries will suffer negative effects, what though of the positives which are entirely missing?

I don't have detailed knowledge of all industries so wondered whether fellow posters could list any other industries which would definitely see advantages from Brexit?

Mistigri Thu 09-Jun-16 21:33:59

Leaving the EU will make little difference in terms of where companies choose to domicile themselves. There is nothing to stop HMRC going after tax-dodging companies right now - indeed, the French government has been doing just that (high profile raid on Google last week). This is simply a question of lack of political will.

Can you cite some examples of "bonkers legislation" that will be repealed? It's hard to respond without specifics.

My employer operates in some highly regulated markets but leaving the EU won't change anything, in the sense that the products will still have to meet EU regulations if we are to sell them. But I suppose that the government could roll back some employment, environmental and health and safety legislation, making our employees less safe and less healthy.

Spinflight Thu 09-Jun-16 22:14:06

I'm not a constitutional or employment lawyer..

So no idea I'm afraid.

I do get the impression, as evidenced by small and medium sized businesses complaints, that the EU regulations are stifling.

Someone needs to listen to them.

In the debate on ITV they mentioned that the EU had stopped the government from reclaiming unpaid taxes.

Anyway... Lets try to keep this thread positive and about areas of the economy that the treasury doesn't appear to realise exist!

BeakyMinder Thu 09-Jun-16 22:25:45

What a load of nonsense.

Britain is already the 2nd least regulated country in the EU and we have the most flexible labour laws. It would be nice if the UK government bothered to enforce the EU regulations that protect us from pollution.

Starbucks etc will not pay more tax here if we leave the EU. Base erosion and profit shifting happens in and outside the EU. In fact EU membership puts us in best position to crack down on in. Stop pretending to be an expert.

Wetherspoons will do well out of Brexit because the number of unemployed will rise and those who've lost their jobs will head to their nearest cheap pub.

Polluters and companies that want to exploit workers will do well out of Brexit.

BeakyMinder Thu 09-Jun-16 22:28:30

Lets try to keep this thread positive

Snort. Yes, let's all hold hands and pretend to ourselves that everything will be fine.

Spinflight Thu 09-Jun-16 22:33:29


I've pointed out a clear weakness in the treasury report, and frankly that the worst case scenario presented from these glaring omissions leads to a small decline in growth which is well within the bounds of reasonable error anyway.

Now I realise there are people working in call centres employed purely to reinforce the message of project fear but I think people are a bit sick of hearing how Godzilla will arise from the sea if we vote for Brexit.

There are plenty of threads to spread hysterical nonsense, merely asking that this one is kept a bit cleaner.

BeakyMinder Thu 09-Jun-16 22:57:42

Thats right, the Brexiteers have been so calm and reasonable throughout what with likening the EU to Nazi Germany, claiming that the whole of Turkey will soon move to the UK, that we are besieged with EU criminals and immigrants, blah blah blah

BeakyMinder Thu 09-Jun-16 23:01:46

Call centres LOL

Virtually every online article about EU has nothing but hysterical angry pro Brexit comments underneath it. No point arguing with you lot because you just make up facts to suit your opinion.

Spinflight Thu 09-Jun-16 23:03:57

Godwin beaky? Really?

I haven't raised these things, though if you fancy answering any of the questions I have raised in the EU army thread then feel free...

Just saying like..

BeakyMinder Thu 09-Jun-16 23:12:08

That's right Spin, Boris Johnson did indeed invoke Godwin.

Millyonthefloss Thu 09-Jun-16 23:28:53

There are lots of benefits to exporters:

1. We will have our own salesperson at the WTO. It hasn't worked too well relying on a Euro rep at the WTO. It's like relying on a salesperson who doesn't really like you or your products.

2. We can therefore trade with the world on our own terms. We will get more help and encouragement selling into the really big markets like China and the US.

3. We will still trade with the EU. Anyone who says they will put up barriers is just scaremongering. We are Germany's third biggest trading partner and they sell much more to us than we sell to them.

However, we can look beyond the stagnating EU to much better opportunities in the wider world.

4. We will at last be able to hire the specialists we need from India, Korea etc (presuming the Govt will make this easier!) And we can still continue to employ EU citizens.

5. We will be much happier!

I for one get into an absolute rage whenever I think of all the EU waste and extravagance.

It's bloody hard work making a profit and I can't bear the fact that my hard earned taxes are poured down the drain of their bonkers grandiose nonsense. Eg the moving of the European Parliament from Brussels to Strasbourg all the time:

Not to mention all the money wasted in Southern Europe on corrupt schemes and useless infrastructure. (See Jeremy Corbyn's old speeches for examples!)

I can't wait to stop thinking about EU extravagance.

If all the money we pay in tax goes to our super-efficient NHS, our benefits, our army, our schools, our foreign aid etc I will never complain about NI and corporation tax again.

BeakyMinder Thu 09-Jun-16 23:45:22

According to the FT, we will need around 500 skilled trade negotiators to do all the separate deals needed if we left the EU.

We currently have 25.

We'd be spending more money on bureaucracy by leaving the EU, not less. The EU enables governments to share their bureaucrats.

You think plucky little UK would come off well negotiating with USA and China? Happy to accept Chinese product standards (the country where babies die due to poisoned formula milk)?

Spinflight Fri 10-Jun-16 02:31:47

Finally a positive from Beaky!

Well done, see you can do it if you try.

Indeed having some dedicated negotiators would be a good thing, nay an excellent thing as clearly 25 could never be enough for the 5th largest economy in the world. Truly shocking that the number is currently so low and probably explains why we never seem to get our own way.

I rather suspect that those 475 would be good value compared to the 50,000 whose salaries and over generous pensions we currently support in the EU.

As for sharing bureaucrats, a horrible mental image if you don't mind me saying.

Indeed if the US and China know we have a shortage of bureaucrats it would be very much in their interests to negotiate before we can train them up properly, catch us on the hop and agree trade deals pronto!

Come take advantage of us rest of the world! Our negotiators are in short supply so we might agree to something really quickly that gives you advantageous terms. Come and get us!

Iknownuffink Fri 10-Jun-16 02:36:19

I abhor the UK government.

Mistigri Fri 10-Jun-16 06:11:09

So no idea I'm afraid.

So, to sum up, you're telling us that leaving the EU would allow the government to repeal "bonkers EU legislation" but you cannot find a single example to tell us about?


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