Would a vote to leave give us more influence in the EU?(11 Posts)
Run with me on this. I'm still mulling my vote over.
I read something an out voter said about how if there's an out vote and we don't like the effects we can choose to go back in. My first reaction was don't be so silly. Then I started to wonder.
If the out campaign 'wins' then we aren't immediately out. We're negotiating an exit. If the negotiations aren't concluded successfully within a certain time frame then we default to staying in.
So presumably a no vote would give an idea of whether it really does have a catastrophic impact on trade etc. And if things are looking grim we could just say we'll abandon negotiations and stay.
Sort of a 'trial separation' rather than a divorce.
Have I got that right?
*my reasons for considering out are down to the institution of the EU rather than not wanting to be a European or having an issue with immigration iyswim. I was howled down by friends for expressing concerns about the Euro so I'm wary of doing the grown up thing just because it's the grown up thing
Oh durr forgot to expand on the title properly.
So during the negotiations if the EU have any fears about other countries following suit then wouldn't that give the UK a bigger influence than when Cameron went to 'negotiate' last time?
That isn't the case, no.
If we don't conclude negotiations in two years we either extend the negotiations or leave without agreements in place.
This isn't an opportunity to negotiate on better terms. It's a vote to get out or stay in. There's no going back - or at least not for several decades.
I don't think we can know the answer to this, because we don't know what will happen to the EU in the future - I wish Remain would tell us - what will it look like in 2yrs, 5yrs, 10yrs? Some people think the Euro will collapse imminently, other don't, some think if we leave it will tempt other countries to go for a leave referendum too - Netherlands?). It is all speculation.
Why were you howled down by your friends for expressing concerns about the euro? With the eurozone growing at 0.3% in the last 3months of 2015 (despite low oil prices), it doesn't look like a totally healthy economy to me. Eurozone GDP is still behind the pre 2008 levels. Add to that deflation and record unemployment in Southern Europe and you have a recipe for low/no growth - great economy for the UK to be shackled to don't you think?!
I think it is the case that lots of Establishment politicians working on behalf of the Establishment will want to get back into the EU at some point and they won't give up because the Establishment won't give up.
An out vote is not out forever because lots of our political class will try to get us back in, but of course they will have to run it by the people first and we may beat them again and remain out.
'Some people think the Euro will collapse imminently, other don't,'
It is highly likely that it will collapse if we leave as other populist parties across Europe demand referendums. They won't ssay it now as they are panicked. The Establishment socialist blocs will not be able to stop the populist movements putting it to a democratic vote.
Ah possibly I misunderstood about failed negotiations then.
The Euro howling was when it first started, not recently. Didn't make that clear. I didn't understand how such diverse economies could all run together.
so you are suggesting that we try it?? sorry?
no - if we leave and the negotiations go badly, that is it. do you really think we would get a better deal when the EU knows its got us over a barrel?
No, it would be a sort of mind game & they rarely end happily.
The two years under article 50 is supposed to be both a renegotiation and some breathing space to prepare. The idea is that the government would put the new terms negotiated to the people just shy of a couple of years and if rejected then we would indeed be out.
Bear in mind that we would remain completely in ( single market etc) until the two years was up, though would be able to pass our own legislation to restrict the power of EU institutions over us. Hence we would no longer be bound by ever closer union but all of the current acts would still be in effect unless changed or repealed.
Trouble is Cameron refused the idea of a second referendum to accept or reject whatever deal was hammered out so it is 2 years of in and then out. He is a fool in my opinion.
Sound a bit like the hokey cokey? There is another way, ie simply repeal the original legislation from the 70s. That would instantly put us out.
If we vote Leave then the EU will have to reform or collapse.
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