EU future referendums in European Countries & the Euro(12 Posts)
I've heard talk that after the UK referendum that other countries in Europe might also demand one too. Does anyone have any views on this?
Also, with regards to the UK referendum, given the high unemployment in many European countries and what happened to Greece, does anyone else find it hard to view the EU as actually that successful?
The French people I know can't believe that we wouldn't take this opportunity to leave...and the Dutch would love a chance to vote out....but I don't think my anecdotal evidence is a reliable scientific poll!
The interesting question for the Remainers to answer, is what will the EU look like in 5yrs, 10yrs, 20yrs, 40yrs time? Neither side is voting for the "status quo"....everything is constantly evolving - personally, I think the Euro will collapse within the next 2-5years., and with the Greece situation and the high youth unemployment in Southern Europe I agree with you that the EU project has not been successful. Ever closer integration is the only answer from the EU, and I don't want to be part of that.
Here's an article re: Netherlands from the Guardian
Some people in other countries might want a referendum, but whether they get one depends entirely on domestic politics. You wouldn't be having a referendum in the UK if Cameron hadn't needed to hobble Ukip in order to win the election. I can't see us getting one here in France, as the two main parties know that either of them can easily beat the Front National in a two way fight. I think any country tempted to hold a referendum will wait now anyway, to see what the outcome is for the UK.
How do you judge the success of the EU without knowing what would have happened in the absence of the EU? Countries which join the EU typically experience much higher growth than those that don't (look at the bits of Eastern Europe that are in and those that aren't, and then go and google GDP trends for those countries).
Notable EU successes on the policy front include environmental legislation and cooperation in scientific research, not to mention a long period of peace in a region that has a history of conflict. Personally I think free movement is a success too, although many will disagree - I say this not just from a personal point of view (I am an economic migrant myself) but from a professional one, since I work for a company whose success in recent years is not unconnected with its ability to recruit large numbers of very talented young scientists from all over Europe.
As unscientific as your poll, Bananabrain I have friends in Denmark, Sweden & Netherlands, all of whom would love a referendum.
Regardless of the UK result, this summer will see more unrest across the whole of the EU as more and more economic migrants arrive from MENA. The rise of the far right will continue. The Euro is going to hell in a handcart, Greece's next default will probably be July, the Italian banks are heading towards disaster too.
If the UK were to vote Leave, I expect that will be the impetus for other countries to demand their own referendums and follow us out.
Recent polling suggests 48% of Italians would vote to leave if they had a referendum.
Personally I give the EU 15 years tops before its lack of real democracy becomes intolerable for ordinary Europeans and it is forced to disintegrate.
If the UK vote to leave many will follow. There are very strong eurosceptic movements in many nations. I expect Holland & Denmark would be next. Denmark has always been very eurosceptic & consistently voted against giving the EU more power & have several opt outs like the UK. Holland also have a new law where 300,000 signatures triggers a public referendum which they used for a vote on the EU-Ukraine deal, I think Holland would have a vote if we vote to leave and quickly get the signatures
I disagree - the remainder of the EU will make the terms of our exit so punitive in large part to deter anyone else from following our lead.
Reacting to Brexit in a punitive way to deter others from leaving would really show the EU
for the empire-by-stealth it really is in its best possible light as a positive union of freely co-operating member states.
The EU doesn't need to treat the UK in a "punitive" way - it just won't agree to terms that are more favourable than those enjoyed by other countries.
There are certain aspects of access to the single market (eg free movement) that are not negotiable for anyone - refusing to give the UK special terms is not "punitive" but good business sense.
Have a scroll down Katya Adler's twitter feed - she's the BBCs Europe correspondent - gives a flavour of how the tide is turning in Europe against centralisation. The piece she did for the Today programme from Hungary and France is good.
My DH works for an international company and (anecdotally) he says that all the Dutch employees that he meets can't stand the EU and hope that the UK votes to leave. Maybe it's to do with that Ukraine vote result which the Dutch government intends to ignore?
Misti, I never get the whole environmental argument. People say that the EU is great because it's reduced the price of flights but it is those flights which are helping to fuck up the environment. Surely the frequent movement of people from one country to another is fucking up the environment? But then I'm cynical about a lot of the bollocks spoken about the environment
because it's usually said by people who think that buying organic fairtrade bananas makes up for their annual longhaul holidays.
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