The kind of people that would vote to leave are also the kind of people who will not bother to vote.

[penisbeakerlaminateflooringetc]

True or false?

[rollonthesummer]

False.

[mollie123]

leaving is a positive affirming action - to go for change - more likely to go out and vote as it is so important to them!

[juneau]

False. I think the opposite is true actually. Those wishing to maintain the status quo are less likely to vote. Those wanting a massive change know it won't happen IF they get out and vote.

[juneau]

UNLESS, not IF

[penisbeakerlaminateflooringetc]

Background: A "friend" of mine posted this on Facebook, arguing that the kind of people that want to leave are the ones that are sitting in their local pub drinking beer, complaining about immigrants stealing their jobs. So therefore unlikely to actually vote.

Just wanted to see if this was the general opinion.

[CoolforKittyCats]

False.

Fromy what they are saying, younger voters are less likely to vote, but more likely to vote in.

That is why there is the big push to get younger voters to register by remain.

[Abraid2]

The brexit supporters I know are very unlikely not to vote. They include company directors, criminal lawyers, retired City people, retired senior NHS managers.

[Chalalala]

the pollsters think it's the other way round. It's Remain that's in trouble with participation.

in terms of demographics, surveys suggest that Brexit voters are less educated (=less likely to vote) and older (=more likely to vote). So maybe the two factors cancel each other out. But Leave voters are a lot more motivated than Remain voters.

[CoolforKittyCats]

in terms of demographics, surveys suggest that Brexit voters are less educated

I would dispute that too. There are some extremely well educated Brexiters about.

[Chalalala]

Of course there are some very educated Brexiters. But polls don't reflect individuals, they give a snapshot of the big picture.

The source for this was a YouGov poll from March 2016

yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/24/eu-referendum-provincial-england-versus-london-and/

"Leave" more than 10 points ahead among:

Age 50-59, age 60+, Conservative/UKIP supporters, Telegraph/Sun/Mail/Express readers, Highest qualification GCSE or lower, C2-DE social class

"Remain" more than 10 points ahead among:

Age 18-29, age 30-39, Guardian/Time readers, Green/LibDem/SNP/Labour supporters, University graduates, Highest qualification A Levels or equivalent, ABC1 social class

[Chalalala]

Oh also some geographical differences in there, if anyone's interested

[BritBrit]

The polling shows the opposite, Leave voters are far more likely to turnout & vote with remain voters quite a bit lower, this has been explained because of age with young voters more likely to vote remain but not vote & older voters more likely to vote leave but turnout & vote. David Cameron has been very worried about turnout & promoting registering to vote

[TresDesolee]

I spent an unpleasant Saturday evening being harangued by a tiresome 'metropolitan' who thought all Leave-ers were gormless chumps who think with their cans of lager. I'm a Remain voter myself but her self-righteousness very nearly changed my mind

Anyway False. As others have said, the evidence suggests they're probably more motivated to vote than lots of Remain voters

[Limer]

I'd say False too. Most people I speak to realise this is a once-in-a-lifetime chance, and are determined to vote.

[Janefromdowntheroad]

I think true.

People who have never been involved, interested or motivated to vote and telling me they'll be voting. Quite a few people on my FB showing their first ever polling card. All leave voters.

[TJEckleburg]

Completely false. Recent polling shows taht whilst the remain:leave is incredibly close, the number of each side who say they wll definitely vote is hugely skewed towards leave

[beenaroundawhile]

Possibly true but not for the reason you have stated.

I think the likely to leave = less likely to vote is possible because we know more about what we would LOSE if we leave than what we would GAIN if we stay. Leaving would result in unknown and unquantifiable risks. We know what we would get if we remain.

On the day, I suspect many hearts will say leave, but heads will say stay. Therefore they either won't vote or may even sway to remain.

Nothing to do with project fear, as better put by varoufakis on marr yesterday, no economist hope to can predict the outcome of Leave because there is a sample of 0.

[WaspsandBeesSting]

Leaving would result in unknown and unquantifiable risks. We know what we would get if we remain.

I think remain also means we don't know what welse will get. Who would have thought 15 years ago that the EU would be as big as it is now?

As has been said, the issue for remain is getting the young voters out to vote. Something which is extremely hard to do.

They couldn't do it in the GE, despite the whole Milifandom hysteria and I'm not sure they will this time either.

[beenaroundawhile]

I agree with you wasps, but my point is that given the decision is imminent people are more likely to actually go out and vote based on what they do know, not what they don't.

I think nagging feeling in the back of the mind of "do I really know what this is going to mean for me" would affect all voters, but in the context of this question it may affect the leave voters more because there is so much greater uncertainty over what a victory would actually mean for the country.

Disclaimer: yes I will be voting to remain, but I've yet to meet a leave supporter (and I know many) with a strong degree of conviction in the outcome of brexit. Perhaps that's down to my more limited circle, but it is my experience.

[BigMamaFratelli]

I'm a university educated, guardian reading liberal and I'm voting to leave. I work in the criminal justice system and I know a lot of people have said they're planning to do the same. Whether or not they turn out on the day is a different matter.

[juneau]

I know people on both sides, including plenty of educated people in professional careers who plan to vote leave and are passionate in their conviction that the EU is a sinking ship we don't want to remain aboard. We absolutely DON'T know what 'remain' consists of. When we joined the EU it was a trading block of what, nine countries? Now look at it! We had no idea what we were joining in 1973 and we have no idea what we'll be letting ourselves in for if we remain now. Don't be fooled by all the recent inaction - the powers in Brussels have been biding their time and not doing anything that might 'spook' the Brits and make them vote leave recently. If we vote to remain we're giving them the green light for whatever those unelected bureaucrats decide is best for us next. The only way of being sure that we'll get what is best for Britain is to get the hell out and steer own ship from now on.

[Pangurban1]

I thought it was interesting, and a little surprising, that only 60% to 62% of people are predicted to go and cast their vote. This is from the most recent poll.

[busyboysmum]

Do you think a lot of those who don't vote are scared to do so as they don't know what's for the best and are hoping someone else will decide for them?

[greathat]

I'd like a nice balanced list of the laws that the "bureacrats in Brussels" have forced upon us. A friend had a brexit rant on her facebook page the other day for posting about the new laws for car seats coming in. Apparently its completely unreasonable of the EU to want our kids in safer car seats...

[Pangurban1]

That is a very likely explanation for some non-voters, taking into consideration it is such a minefield of speculation.

I wonder how it compares with general election turnouts?