so 88% of top economists think that the UK will suffer financially for the next 5 years; 72% think the economy will suffer for the next 10-20 if we leave EU!

[Palehorse]

So we have the the IMF, the IFS, and now a big majority of top economists across academia, and the public and private sectors telling us that if we brexit, our economy will struggle for the next 20 years.

Surely this is the most important issue if the referendum. As a relativity low income family, I dread the future for my kids if we are forced to leave.

[claig]

Weren't these the same people who told us we would suffer if we left the ERM?

Lots of these people get government grants or EU money etc. They are part of the club. The club is asking all its friends to help.

[BritBrit]

We have heard it all before, these same economists & same groups e.g. IMF all said we had to join the ERM & it was a disaster that led to a recession, they all also said we had to join the Euro & that has been total chaos, they also missed the 2008 crash so take it with a pinch of salt. Plus many other economists e.g. Patrick Minford, Roger Bootle have all supported Brexit

[Calamara]

And retired experts are almost unanimous in supporting Brexit in one way or other. Some say the Eurozone is doomed and there will not be a significant impact on the economy if we leave the EU, others that there are advantages to leaving, and others still that we would be safer outside the EU. These include Mervyn King (former governor of the Bank of England), Michael Geoghegan (former CEO of HSBC), Major General Tim Cross, Major General Juliam Thompson and Major General and former SAS chief General Sir Michael Rose. As do other people who have stepped down from influential roles or who are not vulnerable to a career hit for expressing their opinions. These include Steve Hilton, David Cameron's former advisor and Dr Andrew Lilico, Executive Director of Europe Economics.

I think it is an interesting phenomenon that people free from the worry of future career progression are more inclined to express these views.

Personally I think Britain will be more prosperous being geographically in Europe but outside the EU fairly quickly. We will also be more democratic and more outward looking. This is not just a once in a lifetime opportunity, it is a once in forever opportunity (to use poor grammar from the Frozen song). A vote to leave is a vote to have historical impact and to shake up the inertia of the status quo. It is a vote for opportunities for your young family on a low income - opportunities to forge links all over the world on our own terms, opportunities to decide what out country can afford based on our own population (whether benefits, university fees or healthcare) rather than having to make that assessment based on making it available to every EU citizen.

[Chalalala]

One of the problems of the Leave argument is that they have no counter-narrative.

They have no plan for post-Brexit Britain, they can't agree on what it would look like, they can't explain how Britain would compensate for losing access to the Single Market or for the loss of foreign investment into the economy.

All they can do is say that no one should listen to expert warnings, because all the experts are clearly wrong and/or dishonest.

So people should just completely ignore the consensus opinion of the members of the Royal Economic Society and the Society of Business Economist (who are normally notorious for never agreeing on anything).

But strangely, they're still supposed to take the Leave campaign at its word that "don't worry it'll all be just great because Britain is great"?..

[Chalalala]

I think it is an interesting phenomenon that people free from the worry of future career progression are more inclined to express these views.

The poll was anonymous

[Chalalala]

I could also use the same tactics as the Leave posters and say that we should shouldn't listen to Steve Hilton (book to promote, hardly uninterested), Andrew Lilico (chairman of Economists for Britain, hardly unbiased), the retired crowd (all have gold-plated final salary pensions, they can afford to buy castles in Spain if the British economy tanks). And what do they know anyway, they're economists and economists are always wrong!

But I won't, and I'll do them the courtesy of assuming that they are well-informed, intellectually honest citizens trying to give the public information to the best of their knowledge.

Which leaves us back where we started: overwhelming majority of economists think there will be a long-lasting economic cost to Brexit, a very small minority disagree.

[claig]

'But strangely, they're still supposed to take the Leave campaign at its word'

Have you seen some of the leading lights in the Remain campaign? Would you take any one of that lot at their word based on past history?

Think with your head, follow your heart Out! Out! Out!

[claig]

'assuming that they are well-informed, intellectually honest citizens trying to give the public information to the best of their knowledge.'

They don't need any career favours any more, they don't need leg ups and hand outs any more because they are retired and so they are going against the might of the establishment and its servants in opposing their line and the establishment are very miffed that they are talking out and backing the people.

[disappoint15]

Claig, if you stopped going on about 'the establishment' and 'the people' as if those concepts had any real meaning I might be more inclined to consider anything you write. I am 'the people'. I disagree profoundly with everything you say. The politicians you admire couldn't be more 'establishment' if they tried (Farage, private school, EU), Johnson (Eton and Oxford). Do I conclude you are just winding everyone up? I suspect you of being a clever bot created from Daily Mail catchphrases and obsessions.

[claig]

disappoint15, I am not interested in convincing people, I write what I think and I represent the views of lots of other people who think this is about the establishment trying to fool the people.

[claig]

Here is Tim Stanley in the Daily Telegraph stating the obvious

"The EU referendum is becoming a contest between the Establishment and the people"

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/15/the-eu-referendum-is-becoming-a-contest-between-the-establishmen/

If you can't see what they are up to, then more fool you.

[claig]

And here is the excellent Janet Daley in the Daily Telegraph. As if we needed any more reasons to distrust the shower.

"The remote, chaotic EU is now fuelling voters’ distrust of the establishment"

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12059981/The-remote-chaotic-EU-is-now-fuelling-voters-distrust-of-the-establishment.html

The EU is to the benefit of Juncker, Merkel, Hollande and Cameron. It is not to the benefit of the people.

[Winterbiscuit]

"They have no plan for post-Brexit Britain, they can't agree on what it would look like"

I don't feel a need to know exactly what Brexit "would look like" (why is this stock phrase always used?) But I know what it would feel like for me and it would be freedom and relief that we have our democracy and independence back. I also know it isn't going to look like Norway, Switzerland etc. It's going to look like Great Britain.

I am confident that the British people will be resourceful and innovative enough to sort ourselves out. I think a blank sheet of paper isn't worrying, it's exciting and a good thing.

Thinking we can't cope as an independent country is an insult to the abilities of Britain and the people here. Brexit would mean that for the first time in years things will be up to us, and we're not going to be spoon-fed and told what to do by Brussels. I suppose that's a little scary for people who've known nothing else in their adult lives, which is probably why the older generation aren't scared by it and are more likely to vote "leave".

It will be British entrepeneurs and manufacturers who are able to forge ahead and produce products that the world wants, without being held back. This will be fantastic for our economy.

[Winterbiscuit]

Absolutely right claig. The EU is for Juncker, Merkel, Hollande and Cameron, big business, and various figures who've been persuaded by no. 10 to write on masse to the media. It distances power from ordinary people. I for one am not going to obediently do what the establishent tells/warns me to do.

[claig]

'Thinking we can't cope as an independent country is an insult to the abilities of Britain and the people here.'

Absolutely right, Winterbiscuit. And this failing political class of sevants to the establishment - Cameron, Blair et al - who gain by being in the EU and who downplay the British people's abilities and talents and prospects to succeed as an independent country as we have done for over a thousand years, have been shown to be incompetent to serve the people going forward.

[disappoint15]

The Telegraph is the mouthpiece of the Establishment. More fool you if you can't see that one group of vested interest right wing thinkers are trying to persuade you that they are somehow ' of the people'.

[JaWellNoFine]

You know it's NOT the most important issue in this referendum... So wtf if we struggle for a few years. Life's a bitch. People have died for their freedom and the soft remain campaign are scared of a little struggle. People voting remain because they don't like Cameron. Really it's pathetic.. This is a forever decision. Stop being so short sighted. Look at the long term.

And millionaires and people whose life revolves around making them as much money as possible do not interest me at all. People who are not interested in your wealth but rather the wealth of the global elite means sweet duck all to me. But then I don't really want to 'buy buy buy's cheap stuff or go on cheap holidays so my vote is about this countries future not cheap materialistic crap. I am happy if most corporation close their doors paving way for independent stores.

And I find insulting, and I am an immigrant, that the remain campaign think the UK,or Britain cannot stand on their own and still have good governancr-

Forced to leave? Who on earth would force you to leave? Where would you go. Where is this sweet Utopia that everyone is going to?

[claig]

The Establishment is represented by its servants such as Cameron, Blair, Ashdown, Miliband etc etc, not by the independent free British press like the Daily Telegraph or brave politicians who have defied the establishment like Priti Patel etc.

[Winterbiscuit]

People have died for their freedom and the soft remain campaign are scared of a little struggle.

JaWellNoFine hear hear.

[rogueantimatter]

claig You advise "Think with your head. Vote with your heart"

On that basis I'll vote to co-operate and work with the countries on my doorstep. To be part of a team. To share my toys and good fortune and to benefit from the scientific advances made across the EU.

I'd be heartsick if we vote to leave the EU. What an embarrassment to vote to tantrum and flounce.

In my heart this idea of proud Brits taking back control etc is embarrassing and depressing. It feels like the epitome of insularity and parochialism. There's a lot about 'British culture' that would benefit from being influenced or shaped by people from other countries. Eg our excessive drinking, eating and over-sexualisation of young women in particular. As a population we are not superior to any other country and should remember how lucky we are to have been one of the first countries to have an industrial revolution with the ensuing economic and political gains. In my heart the idea of leaving the EU is small-minded and backwards. Nationalism is dangerous and misguided.

[Chalalala]

the independent free British press

owned by independent billionaires, who I'm sure have nothing but the interests of ordinary people at heart. Remember Rupert Murdoch?

I once asked Rupert Murdoch why he was so opposed to the European Union. 'That’s easy,' he replied. 'When I go into Downing Street they do what I say; when I go to Brussels they take no notice.'
indy100.independent.co.uk/article/this-terrifying-rupert-murdoch-quote-is-possibly-the-best-reason-to-stay-in-the-eu-yet--WyMaFTE890x

the "establishment vs people" point makes no sense.

The Leave campaign is funded by billionaires, publicly led by hard right Tories, supported by the overwhelmingly pro-Brexit press mentioned above. None of this screams "the people" to me.

And it's not like "the people" is overwhelmingly on the Leave side either, at best the opinion is 50-50.

[disappoint15]

'People have died for their freedom'? What is this ridiculous emotive rhetoric? 'The free British press' - yes, as free as the political opinions of its owners. The whole idea that Cameron is a slave and Johnson isn't is perhaps the most ridiculous thing of all. Look, I get it. It's like religion. It doesn't matter how many better informed people with facts at their disposal come along to educate you, your point of view is right because Britain is Great. And could be Greater Still if we didn't kowtow to The Establishment.

[CaseInPoint]

Surely this is the most important issue if the referendum.

I disagree, democracy is the most important issue.

[rogueantimatter]

I completely agree with disappoint - the desire to leave is sheer nationalism. Nationality is an accident of birth.

[Floppityflop]

The Leave campaign is not exactly blessed with heavyweight intellectuals. They aren't able to understand, let alone explain, the legal issues, e.g., whether the UK's duty of sincere cooperation under the Treaty would stop immediately or later (when?). But I'm not sure the Remain campaign can either. We simply aren't being given the material we need to have to make an informed decisions. That's not democracy! On the Remain side, I don't see anyone explaining the TTIP and how US companies can invest here and take us to a rather one-sided court if they don't like how they're treated.

Quite frankly, this Referendum is a joke. I guess there is perhaps a small team of lawyers in the Foreign Office who understand all the issues, but I doubt anyone else does.