peak oil - this is serious

[nearlythree]

My mum is one of our country's energy experts. She's a sceptic about global warming and deeply embarrassed by my Green Party membership, so when she says we are in the s**t we should listen.

We have reached 'peak oil'. That is, our use is exceeding supply. In thirty yrs (less if China keeps on growing as it is) the oil runs out. This not lonly means no more SUVs and cheap weekends in Prague, but no fridges, freezers, hospital equipment...no electricity in fact. It will also probably mean war (viz. Iraq already happening). Our kids will be about our ages now - we will probably have grandkids too.

Only a a radical rethink can stop this situation.

[Toothache]

Nearlythree - this isn't new... this was the case when I was at Uni 10 years ago.

[nearlythree]

Yes, I know this isn't new (as mentioned my mum is in the business!) but it doesn't get talked about. So while we're all faffing about buying recycled loo roll we are heading for catastrophe.

And the demand from China has rocketed very recently, their economic changes were not reckoned on ten yrs ago.

[Toothache]

Think your post is a bit hysterical to be honest.

[nearlythree]

Wish it was!

Don't think I've ever been called hysterical before!

Like I say, this isn't scaremongering. My mother is so laid-back about these things you wouldn't believe it. If she's worried then we should be too.

Nuclear will help a bit but probably won't be up and running in time.

[Beauregard]

something else to worry about then

[expatinscotland]

why i've always listened to every old bat i can and think it's important to keep some of the old ways of doing things alive, especially farming and production of certain goods.

[Toothache]

lol I don't think YOU are hysterical.... I mean the post is bit OTT with the reference to no more hospital equipment or electricity. There are MANY other ways to generate electricity..... very little is oil.

[expatinscotland]

yes, quite right, toothy!

[Toothache]

Whats cheap weekends in Prague got to do with it btw? >lost

[nearlythree]

Tootache, you are right. Only 25% of oil goes on electricity. The problem is we don't yet have the technology in place and only have about 15 yrs before the problems start. We also have a problem with gas - we are losing electricity at the moment becuase of a gas shortage, not the hot weather.

Renewables will help but our climate ins too unreliable for them alone. Solar energy would work in, say, Africa but who will pay for the
infrastructure?

Probably the biggest problem is that countries like the US woudl rather go to war to secure supply rather than work on alternatives.

[nearlythree]

Flying, toothache. I live nr Stansted and dh's single mates tend to fly at least once a month as it is cheaper than a night out in London.

[expatinscotland]

Probably the biggest problem is that countries like the US woudl rather go to war to secure supply rather than work on alternatives.

Ooo, here we go again!

Almost every industrialised nation is dependent upon oil.

Ever reviewed the environmental policy of China? Try finding one first.

Then there's the rapidly expanding industrialisation of India, which will have the added bonus of eclipsing China's population in a few decards.

But not to worry, we'll all die of bird flu first.

[Ladymuck]

But I guess the lack of petrochemicals would have quite an impact. I thought that the issues about peak oil are more related to the fact that because we've never faced a situation where demand so greatly exceeds possible supply there is no data available which helps us predict how pricing will be affected. So whilst services could be affected, it is not a case that the lights will go out in 30 years.

But we can't have reached peak oil yet can we? I thought that OPEC still had a production quota (so presumably could produce more). Is your mother an insider to one of the oil cos, or working elsewhere? In either case it is unlikley that she has full information on oil reserves - all published info has limitations.

[expatinscotland]

I've said this once and I'll say it again, until YOU and I and everyone makes lifestyle changes to make themselves completely independent of petroleum and petroleum products - have a quick look round your toiletries and you're in for a shock - we are part of the problem ourselves.

[nearlythree]

Ah, now, bird flu I think we are safe from!

Not having a dig at the States particularly. Our government is the same, and Russia probably. There is no doubt that the biggest problem atm is China/India's growing consumption. They just want what we've got - why wouldn't they? But there are so many more people there, and no checks on pollution, and they are prey to every multinational and corrupt government.

[nearlythree]

Shit, wish I'd never started this thread.

Suffice to say she knows.

Now I sound like a right fantasist!

[expatinscotland]

yes, well, maybe take a class in candlemaking.

learn to become a beekeeper - ready supply of wax and royal jelly.

[Pixiefish]

nothing wrong with staring this .

We should all try to reduce consumption if we can

[Toothache]

I know that the go-ahead has just been given for MANY windfarms to be built all over England and Scotland..... my Dads company bid and lost the Tender.

[Ladymuck]

nearlythree - I'm sure that you're not a fantasist, and whilst many people are looking at whether we've reached the peak, there's a whole load of data on future supply that just is not available - to anyone, even your mum! Even the oil majors have difficulty in predicting this stuff - and they have shareholders and external reporting requirements, unlike many governments who don't!

Certainly once it is clear that we have reached peak oil (which most "experts" seem to think is in the next 15 years or so), then more measures will need to be considered.

[nearlythree]

expat, I wondered if it was my mum you were referring to as an old bat. Seems like you were.

Toothache, yes, there are going to be loads of windfarms but they won't generate enough.

I'd be happy to put solar panels on my roof but can't afford to.

[nearlythree]

ladymuck, peak oil has been reached, because, as expat says, the consumption by China has been seriously larger than anticipated. Wish it hadn't.

[Ladymuck]

Renewables may be an alternative source of energy, but what about the petrochemicals prodcust - everything from fertiliser to plastics and beyond. Hence why the pricing will be so interesting - it is possible to harness alternative sources of energy, but could be more tricky to wean ourselves of the use of refined prodcust. It doesn't necessarily mean the end of life as we know it. We've survived severe swings in energy pricing before.

But I agree that certain nations will do everything that they can to secure resources...

[nearlythree]

I agree ladymuck. We do try to avoid petrochemicals -for example we buy organic toiletries - but I will admit we go foro convenience a lot of the time too.

And we own a 4x4 (hangs head in shame)

[Ladymuck]

Sorry - but to revert back to peak oil: most industry experts do not agree that it has been reached yet (especially as we won't know about it until after it has been reached). Yes demand from the East is high, but frankly that is not really news nor that unexpected within the industry (given that the infrastructure, including pipelines, terminals and petrochemicals facilities etc are built over a number of years).

But sorry - I'm in danger of becoming a pedantic bore. I agree that the age of peak oil will have a significant impact of global economics. Certainly there is a lot of fun to be had in the modelling, but frnakly I think that there are just to many unknowns. And technology continues:- some processes which were uneconomic in the face of cheap oil are more attractive when oil is short.