Latest research: Vaccines offer personal not public protection

[CuriousUnderTheStairs]

As there have been so many arguments on mumsnet about whether vaccinations offer only personal protection or wider public protection (threads calling for those not vaccinated ashamed etc) I thought some of you might find this latest research from the European Journal of Epidemiology interesting.

This is the research paper link:
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7

and this is a wider discussion article of the findings:
fee.org/articles/vaccination-rates-not-linked-to-lower-covid-rates-epidemiology-paper-finds/

The upshot appears to be that higher vaccination rates do not equal lower covid infection rates (if additional measures like distancing, handwashing etc are not also implemented), vaccines do little to limit transmission however they do limit the chance of a poor personal outcome hence they offer personal not public protection.

The FEE discussion article is a particularly interesting read.

[ollyollyoxenfree]

This paper doesn't provide conclusive evidence of anything really.

It's an ecological design - they're just comparing county vaccination rates and vaccination levels. Without individual level data they're not able to adjust for any other factors that vary between countries.

[Reallybadidea]

And the FEE 'discussion' has no quotes by any scientists other than Jay Bhattacharya who has a long history of covid minimising and vaccine disinformation.

[CuriousUnderTheStairs]

Ollyolly and Really
It's peer reviewed research in a well respected journal European Journal of Epidemiology.

You can dismiss the results or you can take them on board it's totally up to you.

Personally I think it's the sort of research many people would find interesting and informative.

[Reallybadidea]

Olly is critiquing it and checking whether the claims stand up to scrutiny. Something being 'peer-reviewed' doesn't mean that any conclusions should be automatically accepted unquestioningly, which is what the news article you linked to did.

[ollyollyoxenfree]

@CuriousUnderTheStairs

Ollyolly and Really
It's peer reviewed research in a well respected journal European Journal of Epidemiology.

You can dismiss the results or you can take them on board it's totally up to you.

Personally I think it's the sort of research many people would find interesting and informative.

I've given an explanation as to the issues of an ecological design in epidemiology. It has uses, but cannot be used to make the inferences the FEE article is claiming.

It is also truly bizzare that there are only two authors and one is listed as a secondary school student.

Akhil Kumar
Turner Fenton Secondary School, Brampton, ON, Canada

[ollyollyoxenfree]

(also that the secondary school student is listed as the last author, who is typically the PI (ie "principle investigator" in charge of the project) )

[CuriousUnderTheStairs]

Olly, so the lead author is a student researcher, so what?

I was once a student researcher and presented on behalf of my college. I would have been pretty put out had my paper been mocked because of my youth.

I didn't start this thread to trash the vaccines because clearly they have saved many lives and the research paper doesn't dispute that. What it does say though is that the countries with the highest rates of vaccination also have the highest levels of covid. That is a fact, backed up with data and isn't being addressed.

[ollyollyoxenfree]

@CuriousUnderTheStairs

Olly, so the lead author is a student researcher, so what?

I was once a student researcher and presented on behalf of my college. I would have been pretty put out had my paper been mocked because of my youth.

I didn't start this thread to trash the vaccines because clearly they have saved many lives and the research paper doesn't dispute that. What it does say though is that the countries with the highest rates of vaccination also have the highest levels of covid. That is a fact, backed up with data and isn't being addressed.

So first off, my issue with the paper is it's methodological issues, of which there are several significant ones.

This isn't the same thing as "mocking" a paper due to one of the authors being a student - is is however pointing out that someone's inexperience may have led to the issues in it. To have a secondary school student lead is bizzare. This isn't a criticism of the student themselves in the slightest - when you supervise a student it's your job to make sure the finished paper is high quality, not theirs.

It is extremely suprising for a secondary school student to have a publication in a journal- it would be considered quite unusual for an undergraduate to have published. To have them actually listed as the senior author (considering most early postdocs won't have this under their belt), is crazy.

[ollyollyoxenfree]

Like many of the papers on these kinds of threads, I suspect it will be retracted in the not too distant future.

The damage is already done though considering all the social media shares and screegrabs will continue.

I have no idea what the solution is to this because it keeps happening!

[Tealightsandd]

Aside from what pp have said, it also impacts on others indirectly. Our hospitals and overworked NHS staff are struggling and waiting lists are growing longer. Getting vaccinated helps to relieve pressure on the NHS.

[Walkaround]

@CuriousUnderTheStairs - without needing todo any research, I would expect countries with the highest vaccination rates to have the highest covid levels due to the removal of restrictions. I would also expect rates (of infection, not just deaths) in the UK to be higher than they currently appear to be if everyone was still unvaccinated. Neither of the links you provided discuss this - they seem to be lacking in substance, describing the obvious and then drawing conclusions without setting out all the evidence for the reader.

[Walkaround]

Also, countries with highest vaccination rates are the wealthiest and likely doing the most testing, too.

[itsgettingwierd]

Totally agree with walkaround

Too many variables not included or considered beyond the raw data.

[sleepwouldbenice]

[quote Walkaround]@CuriousUnderTheStairs - without needing todo any research, I would expect countries with the highest vaccination rates to have the highest covid levels due to the removal of restrictions. I would also expect rates (of infection, not just deaths) in the UK to be higher than they currently appear to be if everyone was still unvaccinated. Neither of the links you provided discuss this - they seem to be lacking in substance, describing the obvious and then drawing conclusions without setting out all the evidence for the reader.[/quote]
Yep basic factors not considered
Amazing that