What happens about the unvaccinated ?

[vera99]

There is a lot of speculation about how many will buy into the continuing vaccination program. Some has said 20% won't but I'm sure it will be less than that. We don't know any would be refuseniks. But say it's 10% and suppose Covid will become stronger and therefore potentially more lethal and troublesome will that not lead to many more deaths and hospitalisations amongst this cohort and by doing so threaten the capacity of the hospital's once again ? Hopefully not of course does anyone know of any modelling around that outcome. Therapeutics of course will be of importance to lessen any resultant disease and persuading the currently unpersuaded remains of paramount importance. The stick of no vaccine no travel or no entry will be a great persuader no doubt as well.

[OpheliasCrayon]

I personally am waiting to be stood up against a wall and shot at dawn because I have turned down the offer of a vaccine twice.

And also I think you need to be realistic, there will easily be 20% that don't , probably more. I have legitimate reasons not to have it, but quite frankly if someone doesn't want a vaccine they shouldn't have to have it, whatever the reason

[Poppins2016]

Say, for example, 20% of the population refuses the vaccine, not all of that percentage will be vulnerable or likely to need medical treatment if they get covid. The unvaccinated will also be protected by those who are vaccinated (principles of herd immunity) to some extent, so that lowers the risk further.

[fallfallfall]

Nothing, but certain sites, employers, airlines, border security and some countries may refuse you entry for the next few years.

[Kokeshi123]

I doubt it will be 20%---takeup is high and rising so far.

If COVID19 is like any other disease, however, smaller outbreaks will probably continue to flare up locally wherever you have large clusters of vaccine-refusers. I suspect that any attempts by local authorities to try and get the wider population in said areas to comply with restrictions, will go down like a cup of cold sick, frankly. Those who refuse the vaccine should be warned that they are doing so at their own risk.

[ChameleonClara]

Personally just now I am focusing on how much better things will be if >80% adults were vaccinated in UK.

There will be large pool of unvaccinated people (children) for ages so the anti-vaxxers won't make too much difference. The pool of unvaccinated people globally will remain huge.

Unfortunately the risk of a worse variant exists.

[HolmeH]

I hope those refusing are one, extremely grateful to those who get the vaccine & make the world safer & open again for them. And I hope they are refused entry back into offices, large events & aeroplanes.

[TheReluctantPhoenix]

There will be vaccine requirements for travel and some large spectator events (such as F1).

As soon as the unvaccinated actually see their vaccinated friends accessing things that they cannot, 90% of them will be asking for a vaccine.

I see 1-5% hardcore remaining unvaccinated in a year or so..

[TheReluctantPhoenix]

@ChameleonClara,

I think children will also be vaccinated in the U.K. ahead of next winter. Trials are ongoing now.

[ChameleonClara]

I don't want a system where a vaccine is required for domestic activity. Don't mind for travel. Am getting the vaccine myself, but I'm a liberal so don't want the UK to go down the controlling citizens road.

[ChameleonClara]

[quote TheReluctantPhoenix]@ChameleonClara,

I think children will also be vaccinated in the U.K. ahead of next winter. Trials are ongoing now.[/quote]
I think 2022.

Take up will be lowerin children I expect.

[BeingATwatItsABingThing]

The restrictions put in place for people who haven’t had a vaccine are all fine and good but I’ll be mightily pissed off if I’ve spent the last year of my life locked down to protect the vulnerable and elderly only for them to have more freedom than me because I haven’t had my vaccine yet. I will gladly have it but am a way off being eligible. My Dad is only just having his first one this week and he’s 60 next year and asthmatic.

I just have to hope these restrictions don’t actually come into fruition.

[TheReluctantPhoenix]

@ChameleonClara,

Re children, don’t underestimate the allure of hassle free travel.

[ChameleonClara]

[quote TheReluctantPhoenix]@ChameleonClara,

Re children, don’t underestimate the allure of hassle free travel.[/quote]
I don't.

But take up will reduce as we go down the age ranges.

It will still be decent overall.

[GnomeDePlume]

Fewer people catching covid means fewer opportunities for a virus to mutate. I can see covid passports coming in, not just for travel but also for access to certain professions.

It is likely I think that the covid vaccine update will become a routine part of autumn like the flu jab. The most vulnerable will be targeted. The less vulnerable will ignore it until they get a nasty bout of it then they will get the jabs the following year.

[StealthPolarBear]

That's the worry isn't it. Restrictions will be eased as they should be when many are vaccinated. Hospitals will cope and risks will reduce overall. But those who can't be vaccinated will then be put at levels of unacceptable risk by those who won't.

[StealthPolarBear]

Like flu I suppose. Uptake rates aren't brilliant and people die.

[MaxNormal]

Ffs. They should put us in stocks on the village square.
Some of us can't have the vaccine, please stop this fucking pariah narrative.

[Nith]

A hefty proportion of the unvaccinated will get Covid, those who survive will have some immunity, so numbers will be manageable.

[twelly]

It is a free choice as to whether we you are vaccinated but here's immunity through vaccination relies on most others being vacivated。 If the number of unvaccinated is about 10 per cent the unvaccinated do not have good here's immunity

[WineInTheWillows]

But say it's 10% and suppose Covid will become stronger and therefore potentially more lethal and troublesome will that not lead to many more deaths and hospitalisations amongst this cohort and by doing so threaten the capacity of the hospital's once again?

It's not really so that dangerous for the young and otherwise healthy, so I doubt you'd see masses of unvaccinated people in hospitals. And if it mutates to the extent that it causes that, there's a good chance the vaccine as it stands would not be effective against it anyway.

It mutates, as do all viruses to some extent. Some mutations result in viruses that are more dangerous, some less. It doesn't follow that if you don't vaccinate everyone against it it'll become the next Yersinia Pestis (which caused the black death/plague).

Odds are we'll end up needing a yearly COVID vaccine for the vulnerable to cope with new variants, as we do for flu, and everyone else will just chance it.

[OddBoots]

I think the only answer we have at the moment is that we don't know.

If we get to the stage where the whole adult population have been offered the vaccine then I imagine there will be studies to see how well the hospitals cope with the cases and what transmission looks like in crowds before deciding if it is worth the effort of setting up some kind of vaccine passport system for access to events and maybe some job roles,.

It's a big thing to undertake (practically, financially and ethically) if it makes little difference but if there is a notable public heath concern then it might be judged to be the right thing.

[EasterIssland]

@ChameleonClara

Personally just now I am focusing on how much better things will be if >80% adults were vaccinated in UK.

There will be large pool of unvaccinated people (children) for ages so the anti-vaxxers won't make too much difference. The pool of unvaccinated people globally will remain huge.

Unfortunately the risk of a worse variant exists.

Pfizer and aztracenec are doing tests in kids 5+ to have a vaccine by the beginning of 2022. So we won’t have to wait years for those kids being vaccinated.

[OnlyFoolsnMothers]

The take up has been high because it has been rolled out to those most at risk/ the numbers for those between 18-35 will be far lower!
I think it will end up like the flu, people will get vaccinated when they hit a certain age bracket and everyone else functions as normal

[GreenBalaclava]

There's no reason to suppose that Covid will become "stronger and therefore potentially more lethal". My understanding is that this isn't the typical progression of similar viruses.

[ChameleonClara]

Pfizer and aztracenec are doing tests in kids 5+ to have a vaccine by the beginning of 2022. So we won’t have to wait years for those kids being vaccinated.

Yes I know - I consider 'the rest of 2021' to be ages in viral mutation terms as that is ample time for things to fuck things up. But hopefully not.

There's no point worrying about unvaccinated adults this year is my.point, the bigger risks are:

Children
Borders
Holiday travel