Fewer Babies?

[TheCatsBlanket]

Not sure if this has been discussed before, sorry if it has but with the lockdown from late March, I was wondering if there will be fewer babies born at the beginning of 2021? I don't mean babies born to those who live together / married, but rather from the lack of new relationships starting up.
Worldwide there has to be fewer pregnancies doesn't there. Any medical folk here who can answer this?

[Namechangedforthisoct2]

I think the opposite and there’s going to be a baby boom

[Cookerhood]

Or people making babies because they have nothing else to do? I think you are probably right too, presumably some people will delay having babies too.

[TheCatsBlanket]

I'm talking specifically about people who couldn't meet up and start a new relationship or one night stands as opposed to those who were already together.

[StillCounting123]

Interesting idea for a thread! I have no idea, but going to think about it.

[DogsDinner]

History would suggest there’s likely to be a drop in the birth rate, as there usually is during times of crisis or economic uncertainty.

Plus, as you say, there’s been less opportunities for people to get together this year.

Obviously this depends on contraception being available. I think some countries are predicted a baby boom as Covid made it difficult for women to access their usual birth control.

It would be interesting to hear any midwives point of view!

[OnlyFoolsnMothers]

Boom in 2021 and a decline in years to come as people haven’t been able to form relationships

[mikkyr]

It will probably be a net zero effect. More babies from those in relationships who have nothing better to do and less from those who may have fallen pregnant from casual encounters.

The interesting question would be, will this probably be a good thing overall with more babies born into family units?

[mikkyr]

@OnlyFoolsnMothers

Boom in 2021 and a decline in years to come as people haven’t been able to form relationships

Yes this too ⬆️

[Llamapolice]

I don't know if I agree that there will be any kind of boom next year from existing couples, I think lockdown was quite a tough time for many people, not conducive to either choosing to have a baby or having lots of sex & conceiving by accident.

[WombOfOnesOwn]

We already knew we had #3 on the way when the pandemic hit, but lockdown has made us fairly sure we want a #4, maybe even a #5!

[SnuggyBuggy]

Not thought of this but an immediate boom from established couples and then a dip from a fall in couples getting together and the economic downturn would make sense.

Reading threads on here about OLD and trying to meet decent men in think there are already problems with finding good life partners. Young people unable to go out with friends or meet people at uni is only going to exacerbate this. OLD doesn't seem to work for everyone

[Mindymomo]

I think with people working from home until at least March next year and some offices shut the whole of next year, people have taken this time to think about starting families now, so they have childcare and can work at home. There are so many new babies and pregnant ladies where I live. Plus they all seem to have puppies as well.

I get what you mean about new relationships. My 24 year old son has had one date since March.

[turnitonagain]

Definitely a drop, many babies who would
have been conceived thorough one night stands or casual hookups are not going to be due to less social contact.

[weepingwillow22]

There will be fewer ivf babies too.

[Mybobowler]

I've seen a few articles written about this. The birth rate in developed countries has/will drop as a result of worries over health and finances, but is likely to increase in less developed/developing countries due to lack of access to contraception and abortion during lockdowns.

Personally, we have delayed trying for our second because of uncertainties over DP's job (but admittedly, I am desperate to start!)

[FourPlatinumRings]

There are so many new babies and pregnant ladies where I live. Plus they all seem to have puppies as well.

Current new babies won't have been conceived during lockdown unless premature. I've got a newborn and he was cooking before COVID properly became a concern.

[Dillo10]

People having babies because there's "nothing better to do".... Does anyone truly believe that is the case? I think many people are having babies because their weddings have been postponed so they've decided to get on with having a family. Or those who were planning it anyway? I think everyone's been expecting a baby boom therefore you pay attention to all the pregnancy announcements etc. I say this as a pregnant woman, took us 10 months to get pregnant after getting married and I would probably hit the roof if someone suggested I am pregnant during a pandemic because I have nothing better to do.

[Clockstop]

@WombOfOnesOwn

We already knew we had #3 on the way when the pandemic hit, but lockdown has made us fairly sure we want a #4, maybe even a #5!

We clearly had very different lockdowns!

[iVampire]

op is wondering about a baby boom in early 2021, so that means those conceived April-July (ish)

For the lack on new relationships to be a noticeable cause, you’d have to be looking at there normally being a lot of conceptions in the early weeks of a relationship beginning.

That is not the case - anyone can have an oops moment with contraception, but babies born from conceptions that early in knowing someone are not a common pattern. Two reasons a) contraception and b) when looking globally the societal/pragmatic pressures that tend to delay intercourse until a socially acceptable time (usually marriage)

[BlazeMonsterMachine]

There was a really interesting paper about this May. I can only find an article about the paper rather than the article

www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-05/tfg-cbb050620.php

Essentially (in Europe at least) there isn't a baby boom. Those suggesting that people had nothing better to do in lockdown than have sex aren't thinking it through properly. There was so much uncertainty that those without children were unsure of the future and therefore felt less "secure" to have children and those with children were juggling childcare and work, so not interested in increasing the burden (obviously massive generalisations here, as there will always be exceptions).

Clockstop - your reply made me laugh 😂

For the record, mine was also cooking when it all kicked off. I would not have deliberately started it off in the middle of lockdown. They still weren't sure about the effects of COVID on a fetus.

There are also very valid points about lockdown preventing new relationships and the "oops" moment. Plus a reduction in one night stands (though I honestly don't know if that would have a huge impact).

Historically, at times of uncertainty there is a fall in births. Often followed by an increase later. Given the news of a vaccination, I suspect the increase may start to happen....

[Parkandride]

When I've asked midwives they've said they're heaving! But that could have been from the Christmas conception boom each year. Plus if staff are stretched due to covid absence you might feel busier at work but not actually be seeing more women.

Think they'll definitely be a dip for early 2021 with lockdown stopping socialising, fertility treatments and people being scared but who knows after that. Within my circles theres a boom but we're all early 30s married in last few years so it was likely to happen regardless. Mine was ivf so the delays to that didn't affect me long term.

Wonder when we can get some actual data?

[TheDailyCarbuncle]

I think one of the very poorly recognised upcoming crises for the world is population decline. We are overpopulated and the planet would benefit from a decline but economically it's hard for the world to cope with a big shift in numbers. People, especially in Europe and Japan were already having fewer and fewer babies. I think covid will have a further impact on that - possibly not a massive one - but it will convince a significant minority of people who were on the fence not to go for it, for various reasons. I think people who struggled with one or two small ones during lockdown will decide not to have a second/third. And others considering their first will look at how their friends who are parents struggled and decide they'd better not.

What I wonder is what the fallout will be from a whole generation of teenagers having their education taken away from them. Will that affect their decision to have kids over the next twenty years?

One thing is for sure, the utterly moronic attitude to immigration that many countries have, including the UK, will have to change. At a certain point if your own country isn't producing enough people you must accept people from elsewhere. It's either that or force women into having babies, which will also happen in some areas (and happens to an extent already).

[MoirasRoses]

I know SO many people who’ve gotten pregnant this year. Now, I am at prime baby age. I always tend to know a few but this year seems much higher.

I think it’ll maybe plateau. There’ll be a chunk of people who’ve had cancelled weddings & will now wait until after that delay. There’ll be people who wait because of lost jobs or financial worries. IVF stopping. Less teen pregnancies you’d think. But there’ll be a lot of already couples who accidentally fall because they’ve been bored. I know it’s horrible to hear if it’s taken a while to get pregnant but it’s pretty common to accidentally get pregnant .. I used to volunteer at a charity where we’d give advice on unexpected pregnancy & it was constantly busy 🙈 most stories of ‘the one time they didn’t use a condom’ or ‘I missed one pill’ .. and if nothing else, this year has certainly made you take stock of what’s important. Many will conclude family.

[IceCreamAndCandyfloss]

I’ve seen plenty of posts on MN from people dating over lockdown so many people have broken the rules to do so.

IVF babies will be fewer as plenty of places stopped treatment. I’m not sure about the rest, some will delay as it’s too chaotic virus/health/finance wise but others will pursue their wants anyway regardless.

[GoldenOmber]

I was on the fence about having more DC before this, but after months of lockdown WFH with no nurseries and no schools I was definitely not thinking “you know what would improve this situation? A newborn!”