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(110 Posts)
FreedomIS Sun 01-Nov-20 10:45:35

... to these unjustifiable and catastrophic lockdowns? These panic induced destructive decisions caused by highly inaccurate hypothetical models?

Just to be clear. SAGE scared the weak Prime Minister into lockdown with a “reasonable worst case scenario” of 4,000 deaths daily.

Yet the highest daily deaths recorded was 2,000 daily in the US in April for a short period.

How did SAGE arrive at 4,000?

And people believe this?

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Ponoka7 Sun 01-Nov-20 10:50:36

Here in Liverpool our hospital capacity is at 90%. We are cancelling non urgent surgeries. It's irrelevant what the predicted deaths are. Our health system isn't coping.

I've been hospitalised with pneumonia. I've seen the results of not having enough oxygen points. We had to share a portable large cylinder to shower, go to the toilet etc. I don't want to be in that situation again.

We are locking down because our NHS won't cope, not because of SAGE. We should have invested more and raised capacity, but we didn't, so here we are.

FreedomIS Sun 01-Nov-20 10:56:03

Oh please. ICUs are normally at 90% capacity. Every winter the NHS is on the brink of collapse due to mismanagement and lack of funds.

During the 2018 winter influenza season, surgeries were canceled and people died until the corridors. Around 64K people died that winter.

Where was your outrage then?

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FreedomIS Sun 01-Nov-20 10:58:49

Patients 'dying in hospital corridors'

Patients are dying in hospital corridors as safety is compromised by "intolerable" conditions, doctors say.
www.bbc.com/news/health-42572116

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upthewolves Sun 01-Nov-20 11:08:41

@freedomIS

I'm actually really stressed by this today. Can you help explain this.

My husband has become totally obsessed with this virus and the data around it. Has been writing to the MP, writing to SAGE, constantly looking at graphs. Think its all, not a conspiracy exactly, but an overreaction. He is losing sleep and now I am losing sleep and yesterday a good friend of mine blew up at me about my husbands viewpoint calling him a selfish arse because he's not behind the lockdown.

I'm now more stressed about the fact that he is going to turn everyone against us but you are saying a lot of the same things.

One, he has sent me a graph this morning showing that hospital admissions for respiratory infections are below average and if the same pattern happens as last year they will spike in January meaning we are going to see another huge increase on the graph whatever happens which would suggest lockdown needs to be lengthened again.

I have asked him to show me the normal hospital admissions data for everything but he can't download it as so many people are trying to download the file today. He said that doesn't matter though as just the respiratory infections data should show that this is a normal curve.

My question is... Why. Why would they present it this way. Why would they lie. Why would they cause economic catastrophe. I think this is the thing that is stopping me from taking this all in because it isn't just our country reacting this way.

He can't explain this because he doesn't really know. But he says that if they presented the deaths and hospital figures for any Autumn winter in the way they are now they could tell people it was a pandemic and it would look that way without comparing to other years.

Can you explain what you think is going on please?

PicsInRed Sun 01-Nov-20 11:13:48

Can you explain what you think is going on please?

There's an international economic war on, and our leaders are cowardly, panicking and fucking thick.

upthewolves Sun 01-Nov-20 11:16:48

How does an international economic war relate to the virus though?

upthewolves Sun 01-Nov-20 11:18:56

Also @ponoka7 says they are cancelling non urgent surgeries in Liverpool. Is this actually true? If so, why are hospitals doing this when they must themselves know they are at a usual capacity for this time of year.

Why aren't all th hospital's shouting "no we're not!" When BJ goes on TV and says they are under pressure.

Hickorydickoryspock Sun 01-Nov-20 11:21:05

All you can do is laugh because if I didnt I would cry. No one wants to listen to medical professionals who have to work in these hospitals do they?
My husband is a nurse and I can categorically tell you that hospitals becoming overwhelmed is a very real and very dangerous risk. Some people just refuse to believe this.
You really think this tory government who have prioritised private enterprise and individual freedom over the good of society at every turn, really want to lock us down? They are doing it because they have been forced to because they know the consequences of not doing it would be catastrophic.

DrMadelineMaxwell Sun 01-Nov-20 11:21:59

If the ICU is always at 90% capacity in winter, and occasionally the hospitals are backed up with multiple ambulances awaiting entrance because things are full....how do you think they will cope with the continuing rising numbers if admissions?

DameCelia Sun 01-Nov-20 11:24:46

@upthewolves please don't worry about this. Humans love conspiracy theories to explain things they struggle to understand or find difficult to accept.
I'm sorry your husband has fallen into this.
I recommend not engaging with people like @PicsInRed or @FreedomIS. They may genuinely believe what they write, they may just be trolls enjoying causing mayhem, they may have more sinister aims and backers.

Concentrate on keeping yourself and your family safe. Ignore your husband's ranting and if necessary rely on your friends.

upthewolves Sun 01-Nov-20 11:25:17

@hickorydickoryspock So does your husband say it isn't true that the hospital admissions are normal? How are we supposed to know whose numbers to believe?

Dixiee Sun 01-Nov-20 11:28:31

Economic wars you don't need weapons and is much more effective. Nuclear wars can take years, cost so much. This virus came from China, imagine it coming from a county like Tunisia or Turkey (no offence) the whole world would be down their necks wouldn't they? The ethnic cleansing of Uyghur's, no one is saying anything, a footballer from Arsenal (top international footballer) sheds light to the situation and he instantly loses places in the squad.

Plus hospital capacity is always overwhelmed in the winter months before all of this.

FreedomIS Sun 01-Nov-20 11:30:04

@upthewolves

I know where your husband is coming from. I don’t believe in conspiracy theories either.

These measures are all political, not scientific. Politicians are too terrified to have Covid deaths on their name, no matter how small compared to non-Covid deaths. Remember almost 30K people died at home since lockdown due to non access to care and because people are/were too terrified to go to hospital. The delayed cancer treatments, canceled operations, suicides, etc are deaths FROM lockdowns. But these deaths aren’t in your face like people dying WITH covid.

The government are only following SAGE, where members are mainly from Imperial College, ie where Neil Ferguson works. This is wrong and terrifying because it results in groupthink science and anyone who goes against the scientific consensus is a “conspiracy theorist”. Science has always been debated before Covid.

I don’t know why they’re only going by the highly inaccurate fear-mongering imperial college models. These models have been proven wrong time and time again. Neil Ferguson’s track record is pathetic. He has been wrong almost every time since the beginning of his career.

I am flabbergasted that so many people are following orders without doing any research and without questioning the government.

Viruses haven’t changed but people have.

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upthewolves Sun 01-Nov-20 11:30:15

The thing is @Damecelia my husband isn't sinister at all. He is being kept awake worrying about the kids future under this apparently nefarious government. He's also bright and has a degree in stats so it's not like him to be caught up in weird mumbo jumbo. Just don't know who or what to believe.

The hospital admissions stuff has bothered me because it seems like evidence that is in contradiction to the PM yesterday

PicsInRed Sun 01-Nov-20 11:31:15

upthewolves

How does an international economic war relate to the virus though?

We (the West) are presently engaged in a trade and economic war with China - who are also in the brink of hot war with India. There is much more going on here than just covid - a functioning economy is essential to both essential services (a funded NHS) and also national security.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/30/west-should-not-bow-chinese-regime-made-world/

edition.cnn.com/2020/10/27/asia/us-india-defense-china-intl-hnk/index.html

m.timesofindia.com/india/china-has-60000-troops-on-lac-talks-wont-work-warns-us/articleshow/78596981.cms

Maze76 Sun 01-Nov-20 11:33:53

I find that people who argue against lockdowns and the data, are usually those who are suffering economically due to the virus. I fully understand the fear and hardships people are facing, but I don’t understand why these people constantly argue against the idea of the NHS being overwhelmed this winter, they are not interested when Drs, nurses and health officials back this up- no, Joe public knows better?!! Yes it’s a crap situation, no one has all the answers, but this situation is not unique to the UK!

Rockpapershoot Sun 01-Nov-20 11:34:43

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Hickorydickoryspock Sun 01-Nov-20 11:36:17

@upthewolves my husband hasn't seen any difference in hospital admissions at the moment but there was a clear difference at the beginning of this oandemic.. he doesnt work on a covid ward he's the prescriber for several psychiatric wards (and community) and covid did tear through some of these wards at the beginning of the pandemic. And through his staff team. They were struggling to function.There were separate covid wards which quickly filled. Very quickly.
The issue is that this does happen very quickly and things become overwhelmed.
In the winter there is always a massive influx of hospital admissions anyway... put that on top pf the threat of covid and of course it seems we have to do something.
If we dont do anything masses of people could die, not just from covid, but from lack of routine medical care.
We have to act before the hospitals start filling up.
The government has been looking at the infection rate and the number of cases. That has risen to a point where they feel it necessary to try and protect hospitals from this influx.
Now we will never know hopefully if that was actually necessary. If we knew it would be too late. By the time you see a massive influx of admissions it would be too late. They can only go on what they expect to happen, info from other countries and how things progressed at the start of the pandemic.

FreedomIS Sun 01-Nov-20 11:36:35

@DameCelia

Give me a break. People can be rational thinkers! It’s sad that you and others are pro-lockdowners without seeing the long-term damage they create.

Even the WHO said lockdowns should not be used.

There are other ways besides lockdowns, which by the way, is a term used in prisons.

Professor Sunetra Gupta and Professor Carl Heneghan from Oxford haven been trying to reach the government and have their expertise heard.

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FreedomIS Sun 01-Nov-20 11:39:05

@Rockpapershoot

How about you say that to the cancer patients who haven’t been receiving treatment! Or the million women who have missed their breast cancer screenings because of lockdown?!

The nightingale hospitals were mothballed. They’re NOT being used. IF the hospitals will be overwhelmed, why actually use them??

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upthewolves Sun 01-Nov-20 11:40:17

Thanks for answering my questions.

FreedomIS Sun 01-Nov-20 11:44:00

Positive tests mainly do NOT mean illnesses. Majority of people have mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. They should not call positive test results cases... this is what is really misleading the public.

We have better treatments, we aren’t using ventilators as much because they were actually killing people and we know even more who is at risk.

You have a 0.05% chance of dying WITH covid if you’re under 70, as per the WHO. Almost all the deaths were elderly and had at least one or two major co-morbidities.

This virus is not the Black Death or even close to the Spanish Flu. People need to get some perspective and understand risk management.

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Hickorydickoryspock Sun 01-Nov-20 11:46:52

The thing is we will never know for sure if lockdown was the right response. The issue is if we dont lock down we would be gambling with peoples lives and our healthcare system. More so than if we did lock down. Lockdown causes its own set of problems but not on the scale that not locking down may cause.
There are no clear answers here and hopefully there never will be because the only clear answer we would see is if hospitals do actually become overwhelmed and masses of people die. It seems like some people wont be happy until they see that hard evidence... but that is what we are trying to prevent.
There will always be scientists who have different opinions and different models.
Hospitals becoming overwhelmed is a very real risk and I know that because they almost were at the start.. as I said my husbands team were barely functioning.
Obviously the government have been trying out different things but the infection rate has still been rising.
With the influx of medical care needed over winter it is extremely risky to gamble here.

Rockpapershoot Sun 01-Nov-20 11:52:09

You do get that overwhelming hospitals would mean less patients getting routine care, right? So less women getting cancer care? You can follow that? They are desperately trying to keep the system working on at least some routine care or the death toll will climb even higher. The more doctors that catch COVID themselves the less able the system is to cope. Is modelling perfect? No. Does it mean we should blindly allow a catastrophe to happen to make believers out of the thickos who have never even taken a statistics class? No.

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